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Oil watchers are now seeing a genuine threat to crude supplies after Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel, escalating conflict in the Middle East. Iranian oil infrastructure may soon become a target for Israel as it considers a countermove, analysts told CNBC. "The Middle East conflict may finally impact oil supply," said Saul Kavonic, senior energy analyst at MST Marquee. "The scope for a material disruption to oil supply is now imminent." Up to 4% of global oil supply is at risk as the conflict now directly envelopes Iran, and an attack or tighter sanctions could send prices to $100 per barrel again, Kavonic added.
Persons: Hassan Nasrallah, Saul Kavonic, Kavonic Organizations: Tuesday, CNBC Locations: Isfahan Refinery, Iran, Isfahan, Israel, East, Iranian, Lebanon, Ukraine
SHENZHEN, CHINA - MARCH 09: View of high commercial and residential buildings on March 9, 2016 in Shenzhen, China. General economic slowdown continues in China while the property price and stock bubble faces risk. (Photo by Zhong Zhi/Getty Images)Shares of most Hong Kong-listed Chinese property stocks surged to their highest levels in over a year, as China's stimulus rally continues. The real estate sector was the biggest gainer in the Hang Seng Index , with Longfor Group Holdings being the top mover, adding over 25%. The wider Hang Seng Index added 6%, while the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index surged over 14%.
Persons: Zhong Zhi Organizations: Longfor Group Holdings, Shimao, Kaisa, China Overseas Land & Investment, Hang Lung Properties, China Resources Land, Mainland Properties, Golden Locations: SHENZHEN, CHINA, Shenzhen, China, Hong Kong
Despite dovish comments from Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba leading to a sharp plunge in the yen , market analysts aren't budging from their Bank of Japan policy expectations for the longer term. The yen slid to as weak as 147.15 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, after Ishiba told reporters that the current economic climate does not require an additional rate increase. The prime minister's comments marked a drastic change in tone compared with the messaging on his recent campaign trail. On Thursday morning, BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi said that the central bank should continue its accommodative monetary policy for the time being. He noted that it will take a while to change the public's perception that prices will not increase significantly in the future.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, aren't budging, Ishiba, Kazuo Ueda —, Abe Shinzo's, Stefan Angrick, Angrick, Asahi Noguchi Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Bank of Japan, Liberal Democratic Party, Moody's, CNBC Locations: Bank of Japan
China's factory activity contracted for a fifth consecutive month in September as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive its growth momentum. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a reading below that level points to contraction. However, China's Caixin PMI was 49.3, compared to 50.4 in August, according to the private survey compiled by S&P Global. The Caixin data released on Monday indicated that China's manufacturing sector experienced its sharpest contraction in 14 months in September, driven by declining demand and a weakening labor market. Headwinds for the manufacturing sector has continued to mount as a prolonged economic slowdown and property crisis dampen domestic demand.
Persons: Zhao Qinghe, Xi Jinping Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Reuters, NBS, P Global, National Bureau, Statistics, People's Bank of China
While hostilities throughout the Middle East have ramped up, there has not been any oil supply disruption, observed Andy Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates. "The oil market does not expect an all-out war between Iran and Israel that would impact supply," he told CNBC via email. However, both experts noted that a rapid escalation in conflict could lead to crude oil prices hitting $100 per barrel. While unlikely, oil prices would jump by $30 per barrel if it occurred, he added. "If events rapidly spiral, any material disruption to Iranian oil supplies or oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices well over $100 per barrel," said Young.
Persons: Hassan Nasrallah, Nasrallah, Andy Lipow, Lipow, Josh Young, Young Organizations: State, Company, Venezuelan, Company SA, Israel Defense Forces, Hezbollah, U.S, National Intelligence, London Assembly, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Lipow Oil Associates, CNBC, U.S ., U.S . Energy Information Administration, Hamas Locations: Venezuela, Beirut, Iran, Israel, U.S . Canada, Guyana, Straits, Hormuz, Oman, Lebanon
Signage at the New World Tower, which houses the headquarters of New World Development Co., in Hong Kong, China, on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. New World Developmen suspended trading of its shares in Hong Kong on Thursday morning. Shares of Hong Kong's New World Development surged following the resignation of Adrian Cheng, a member of the founding family. Hong Kong listed shares of the major development company traded 23% higher after trading resumed on Friday. New World's woes come as property pains continue to plague Hong Kong and mainland China.
Persons: Adrian Cheng, Cheng, Eric Ma Siu, Cheung, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Hong Kong tycoons, China's Organizations: New, Hong, HK, Asia Pacific, CNBC, China's Locations: Hong Kong, China, Natixis, tycoons, Asia
India's economic growth story is a stunning one — but the question of where investors should park their money is not always straightforward, with one Blackstone executive highlighting a common mistake. However, focusing too much on the macro story can be dangerous for investors, according to Blackstone Private Equity's head of Asia, Amit Dixit. I think you go to India for the macro, everybody knows," Dixit said at the Milken Institute's recent Asia Summit in Singapore. While the list of companies Blackstone invests in India are extensive, he spotlighted the likes of information technology service firm Mphasis , IT service management company R Systems and automotive components manufacturer Sona Comstar . "I think, either end of the spectrum, you can make a lot of money as an investor," he said.
Persons: Blackstone, Blackstone Private Equity's, Amit Dixit, Dixit, Sona Comstar, it's, Manraj Sekhon, Sekhon Organizations: Blackstone Private, Milken, Summit, CNBC, Blackstone, Systems, Templeton Global Investments, Milken Asia Summit Locations: India, Hong Kong, Asia, Singapore
China's government announced it will offer a one-time cash allowance to those in extreme poverty, a day after its central bank rolled out a slate of stimulus measures aimed at shoring up the economy. The handout will be provided to "extremely poor people, orphans and other needy people on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the founding of New China," China's Ministry of Civil Affairs reported on Wednesday. The report did not specify the size of the allowance or any further details. As of last November, 40.4 million people in China were covered by subsistence allowances. The average allowance was about 779 yuan ($110.80) per person a month for those staying in urban areas, while rural subsistence was 615 yuan per person.
Persons: Xi, Shaun Rein, Mao Zedong Organizations: New, Ministry of Civil Affairs, CPC, China Market Research, CNBC Locations: New China, China
Sushi, onigiri and yakitori don — Japanese rice is a key staple in many of its iconic dishes, but the country is facing its biggest shortfall in decades. Japan has been contending with a rice shortage in recent months due to a mix of bad weather and an increase in tourists, undergirded by the country's restrictive rice policies. Consumers also stockpiled more rice in preparation for Japan's typhoon season and a major earthquake warning, the USDA added. Local media NHK partly attributed the shortage to an influx in tourists pushing up demand for sushi and other rice-based dishes. On top of Japanese preparing for potential natural disasters, the MFAA also attributed the increase in table rice demand to an influx of tourists driving up food service demand.
Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, Consumers, Local, NHK, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries Locations: Japan, undergirded
The Chinese yuan has weakened sharply against the U.S. dollar in the last several weeks as the greenback strengthens and investors worry about China's economic growth. China's yuan hit its strongest level in over 16 months on Wednesday after Beijing unveiled a slate of stimulus measures to shore up the slowing economy on Tuesday. The Chinese offshore yuan strengthened briefly to 6.9946 per dollar, the strongest since May 2023. China's onshore yuan is currently trading at 7.0319 against the greenback, also holding at the strongest levels since last May. China bonds rallied after the PBOC announcement with 10-year and 30-year yields hitting record lows.
Persons: Ben Emons, Edmund Goh, Zerlina Zeng, CreditSights, Pan Gongsheng, Emons, Hong, — CNBC's Evelyn Cheng Organizations: U.S, Beijing, greenback, Fed Watch, BNP, U.S ., Asia Credit, People's Bank of China Gov, CSI Locations: China, abrdn, Hong Kong, London, Singapore, New York
Rows of new energy vehicles are parked at Changan Automobile's vehicle distribution center in Chongqing, China, on January 14, 2024. Shares of Chinese automakers climbed Tuesday, shrugging off a U.S. government proposal to ban certain types of vehicles equipped with car parts from China and Russia, amid a broad rally after Beijing announced policy easing. The Joe Biden administration has cited national security risks for its latest measure aimed at curbing Chinese auto industry's influence and reach in the U.S."Cars today have cameras, microphones, GPS tracking, and other technologies connected to the internet. U.S. proposal to ban Chinese auto parts may not have a direct negative impact on the Chinese auto industry as the sales volume of Chinese auto exports to the U.S. markets are "very small" and limited, Wu said. Additionally, Chinese parts companies have already set up factories in South America, which can be exported directly to U.S. markets under the U.S.-Mexico Tariff Agreement, he added.
Persons: shrugging, Li, Nio, Leapmotor, Joe Biden, Gina Raimondo, Ivan Wu, Pan Gongsheng, Wu Organizations: Beijing, Guotai, People's Bank of China Gov, U.S, China Automobile Dealers Association Locations: Chongqing, China, U.S, Russia, Hong Kong, South America, Mexico
A man walks past the People's Bank of China (PBOC) building on July 20, 2023 in Beijing, China. (Photo by Jiang Qiming/China News Service/VCG via Getty ImagesChina bond yields fell to a record low after the People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced that it would cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks. Yield on China's 10-year government bonds fell 3.75 basis points to 2.043%, data from LSEG showed, marking a record low. 30-year bond yields also dropped to a record low of 2.168%. In recent months, insurance companies and institutional investors have flocked to China's bond market, partly due to limited investment opportunities available.
Persons: Jiang Qiming, Pan Gongsheng, Pan Organizations: People's Bank of China, China News Service, Getty Images, PBOC, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Beijing, China, Getty Images China, LSEG
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan has ramped up its push for companies to adopt a four-day workweek, but those efforts face steep challenges in a country famous for its workaholic culture. The Japanese government recently initiated a "work style reform" campaign aimed at promoting flexible work arrangements, shorter hours and overtime limits. The move marks a more concerted effort after the government first floated support for a shorter workweek in 2021 when lawmakers endorsed the idea. "Being part of a company is almost part of a community, and this results often in longer work hours, not as efficient work hours," he told CNBC. I think that it's going to take time [for the four-day workweek] to penetrate… we're not used to being flexible.
Persons: Tim Craig, Craig, it's, Martin Schulz, karoshi, Hiroshi Ono Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Japan, Ministry of Health, Labor, Welfare, Fujitsu, CNBC, Hitotsubashi University Locations: Japan
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty ImagesIndia's commerce minister rejected the idea of joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, the world's largest trade deal, maintaining that it is not in the country's interest to be part of a free trade agreement with China. Negotiations for the RCEP started in 2013 and initially included India, which some members viewed as a counterbalance to China. However, in 2019, India chose not to join RCEP, citing unresolved "core interest" issues. Goyal noted that at that time, India already had a free trade agreement with ASEAN, Japan and Korea, as well as a bilateral trade with New Zealand worth $300 million. "It was not in our farmers' interest, RCEP did not reflect the aspirations of our small and micro medium industries and sector, and in some form, was nothing but a free trade agreement with China," he said.
Persons: Industry Piyush Goyal, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Goyal, RCEP Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Regional Comprehensive Economic, ASEAN, Commerce, Industry, , Association of Southeast Asian Nations, RCEP, New Zealand, Trade, Semiconductor Locations: China, India, Asia, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Korea
China's youth unemployment rate in August rose to the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, amid an economic slowdown. China's urban unemployment rate across all age categories rose 5.3% in August, compared to a 5.2% climb in July. China paused reporting the youth unemployment rate for much of the latter half of last year while it reassessed its calculation methods. China's youth unemployment has also been affected by restrictive hiring policies amid a struggling economy as companies are refusing to hire recent college graduates due to the difficulty and costs involved in firing workers in China. "That's why the [overall] unemployment rate isn't that bad but the unemployment rate for youths is so high," Rein added.
Persons: That's, Dan Wang, Shaun Rein, Rein Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, HSBC, China Market Research, People's Bank of Locations: China, People's Bank of China
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates co-chairman and co-chief investment officer, speaks during the Skybridge Capital SALT New York 2021 conference. Brendan McDermid | ReutersAs the U.S. Federal Reserve implemented its first interest rate cut since the early Covid pandemic, billionaire investor Ray Dalio flagged that the U.S. economy still faces an "enormous amount of debt." The central bank's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to a range of 4.75% to 5%. On Wednesday, Dalio listed debt, money and the economic cycle as one of the top five forces influencing the global economy. The country's central bank only recently lifted interest rates in March this year.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Brendan McDermid, CNBC's, Dalio, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S . Treasury Department Locations: U.S, Japan
"We estimate that Brent could fall to roughly $50 per barrel in a moderate [U.S.] recession … We have a fairly benign view on the global economy," Struyven said during the conference. en Luckock global head of oil at Trafigura"Things are slowing down. Trading Giant Trafigura raised concerns about China's weak demand, and the global oil consumption tied to it. China's slowdown has spurred some to scour for alternative oil demand drivers, with a few eyeing India as a potential candidate. India is the third largest consumer of oil at around 5 million barrels of oil per day, 5% of the world's oil consumption.
Persons: Andrey Rudakov, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Struyven, Torbjörn Törnqvist, Ben Luckock, we're, Bing Chen, Gunvor Organizations: Tuapsinsky, Rosneft Oil, Bloomberg, Getty, Global Commodities, Daan, CNBC, Global, Brent, U.S, West Texas Locations: Tuapse, Russia, China, U.S, Ukraine, India, Japan, Germany, Hong
Dalio made his remarks Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Debt, money and the economic cycleWith uncertainty still circling around what the Fed will do at its meeting this week, Dalio raised concerns about how the country's debt will be managed. 'Acts of nature'Dalio then said "acts of nature" have historically posed a bigger threat to humanity and society than war. "Acts of nature, droughts, floods and pandemics have killed more people and been responsible for more domestic orders and international orders changing," Dalio noted. According to the World Economic Forum, the climate crisis results in a 12% loss in global GDP for each 1°C increase in temperature.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Bridgewater Associates, Milken Institute Asia Summit, Bloomberg, Getty, SINGAPORE, Milken, Summit, U.S, CNBC Fed, Economic, Technology Locations: Singapore, U.S, U.S . Federal, China, The U.S, South China
The world's super rich club expanded significantly over the past 10 years, with China leading the charge, according to the latest report from New World Wealth and investment migration advisor Henley & Partners. The number of centimillionaires surged 54% worldwide over the past decade to 29,350, particularly in China and the U.S., according to the report. China's growth was driven in large part by the emergence of tech centimillionaires and industrial titans, Steffen said. Most of China's centimillionaire boom happened between 2013 to 2020, Andrew Amoils, wealth analyst at New World Wealth, told CNBC. Since 2020, the number of ultra-rich has only risen about 10%, he added.
Persons: Henley, Juerg Steffen, — outpacing, Steffen, Andrew Amoils Organizations: Wealth, Henley & Partners, CNBC Locations: China, U.S, America
The CEO of Swiss banking giant UBS said Thursday that the fight against inflation isn't over yet, and some investors seem to be getting too ahead of themselves in expecting that the U.S. Federal Reserve could pull an aggressive rate cut this month. "I think the market seems to be a little bit too ahead of the curve in expecting the Fed to go so aggressively," Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO of UBS Group AG, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." The question of whether the Fed will lower rates at the end of its next policy meeting September 18 has largely been answered. The only question that remains is: by how much. The "most important" issue that the Fed needs consider is still inflation, which remains sticky and not yet "totally under control," Ermotti added.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, CNBC's, Ermotti Organizations: UBS, U.S . Federal, UBS Group AG, Fed Locations: U.S
A 7-Eleven convenience store, operated by Seven & i Holdings Co., in Kawasaki, Japan, on Monday, Aug. 19, 2024. The FTC was concerned that the companies' defense attorneys were advising them to get rid of documents linked to the potential merger ahead of antitrust investigations, Reuters reported. In June, the FTC and the Justice Department launched antitrust investigations into Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia. Other recent antitrust investigations include cases against Amazon and Google. Seven & i revealed that Couche-Tard had offered to acquire all outstanding shares of Seven & i for $14.86 per share.
Persons: Canada's Alimentation, Tard, Tokutaka Ito, O Shearman, Ito, — CNBC's Lim Hui Jie Organizations: Seven, Holdings Co, Holdings, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Reuters, FTC, Justice Department, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Google, CNBC Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, Asia, .
Japanese wages are expected to grow in real terms in the second half of 2024 for the first time in more than three decades, according to Asset Management One. Wages in Japan are rising more rapidly than they did in 2023, the investment management firm noted in a recent report. Japanese real wages in July rose 0.4% year on year, rising for a second consecutive month after a 1.1% rise in June. Asset Management One economists anticipate regular wages likely maintained this rate of growth this summer, despite recent volatility in the yen and Japanese equities. "The past three decades in Japan have been defined by minimal price inflation and negligible wage growth," said Yuko Iizuka, economist at Asset Management One.
Persons: Yuko Iizuka, Iizuka Organizations: Management, Asset Management Locations: Japan
SINGAPORE — Global markets are severely overplaying an oil supply glut, said Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at private equity giant Carlyle. China's crude oil imports in 2023 had notched a record high. China's oil demand has been declining on the back of a slump in industrial inputs, according the International Energy Agency. On the supply side, black oil production in the U.S., one of the world's top crude oil producers, has been "flat" this year, Currie said. Black oils include crude oil, fuel oil, furnace oil, asphalt and tar.
Persons: Currie, Jeff Currie, Carlyle, I've, Energean Organizations: Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, SINGAPORE —, International Energy Agency, Reuters Locations: Stanton , Texas, Singapore, SINGAPORE, APPEC, U.S, Egypt, Italy, Croatia
People walk past the logo of Samsung Electronics in Seoul on July 7, 2022. Global semiconductor and associated stocks fell on Wednesday, following a steep plunge in Nvidia's share price in the U.S. overnight. In the U.S., chipmaker Nvidia plunged more than 9% in regular trading, leading semiconductor stocks lower amid a sell-off on Wall Street. Around $279 billion of value was wiped off of Nvidia on Tuesday, in the biggest one-day market capitalization drop for a U.S. stock in history. Nvidia's value chain extends to South Korea, namely, memory chip maker SK Hynix and conglomerate Samsung Electronics.
Organizations: Samsung Electronics, Samsung Electronics Co, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Department of Justice, Facebook, SK Hynix Locations: Seoul, South, U.S, South Korea
Evans pointed to signs of the economy slowing down, including what he called the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The Fed funds futures market suggests that investors are expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "A few rate cuts are not going to prevent a recession. Average recession is 10 months… It takes something like a year before fed cuts actually start to give a boost to the economy," he said. "The market believes that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%.
Persons: Garry Evans, Evans, It's, Jerome Powell, isn't Organizations: BCA Research, . Federal, BCA Research's, U.S . Labor Department, Traders Locations: U.S, Jackson
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