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☆ Rupee set to rally on India's inclusion in JPMorgan bond index
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.80-82.82 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 83.09 in the previous session. Indian government bonds will be included in the Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets index and the index suite, JPMorgan said on Friday. Inclusion will start on June 28, 2024, and extend over 10 months with 1% increments on its index weighting. India's inclusion in the JPMorgan index increases the probability of inclusion into the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bonds Index, which, IDFC First Bank estimates, could lead to additional inflows of $15 billion to $20 billion. The dollar index reached 105.74 on Thursday, the highest in over six months.

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Nimesh Vora, Savio D'Souza Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Government Bond, JPMorgan, IDFC, Bank, Bloomberg, Treasury, U.S . Federal, ING Bank, Brent, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI

☆ Canadian dollar posts biggest weekly gain since June
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3515 to the greenback, or 73.99 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3495 to 1.3549. For the week, it was up 0.9%, its biggest weekly advance since June. Much of the currency's weekly gain was down to selling of EUR-CAD, said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco. Canadian government bond yields rose across the curve on Friday, tracking moves in U.S. Treasuries.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Amo Sahota, Sahota, Fergal Smith, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, Canadian, U.S, FX, European Central Bank, Saudi, Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, San Francisco, U.S

Traders cheered the expected end of rate hikes that have raised borrowing costs from minus 0.5% in just over a year. That sent euro zone government bond yields tumbling, the euro down and stocks (.STOXX) higher. The ECB cut its outlook for euro area growth this year to 0.7%, while economists polled by Reuters expect growth of 0.6%. A market rally is also likely unwelcome to the ECB. Hawkish policymakers have started calling for an earlier end to PEPP reinvestments, and the ECB is likely to begin a debate on furthering its balance-sheet runoff with rate hikes likely done.

Persons: Charles Diebel, Simon Bell, Jason Simpson, Anna Stupnytska, reinvesting, Mediolanum's Diebel, reinvestments, Divyang Shah, Christine Lagarde, Shah, Yoruk Bahceli, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara, Dhara Ranasinghe, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Traders, Reuters Graphics, Mediolanum Asset Management, ECB, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, State, Fidelity International, Thomson Locations: Italy, Germany

☆ Canadian dollar outlook seen less rosy as China's economy weakens
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

File photo: A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsTORONTO, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Analysts have cut their bullish near-term forecasts for the Canadian dollar as China's economy weakens and the gap between U.S. and Canadian bond yields grows, but still expect the currency to be stronger in a year, a Reuters poll showed. "The loonie has lost a few feathers in recent weeks," said Stefane Marion, chief economist and strategist at National Bank of Canada. "Widening interest rate differentials with the U.S. and weaker commodity prices due to a slowing Chinese economy are keeping the CAD in check." Canada is a major producer of commodities, so the loonie tends to be sensitive to the global growth outlook.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Stefane Marion, Marion, Fergal Smith, Sujith Pai, Devayani, Pranoy, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bank of Canada, U.S, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Toronto, Canada, U.S

☆ Toronto stocks extend losses for third day as BlackBerry tanks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Siddarth S | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Art Deco facade of the original Toronto Stock Exchange building is seen on Bay Street in Toronto, Ontario, Canada January 23, 2019. ET (1419 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 90.43 points, or 0.45%, at 20,136.53. Both the U.S.- and Canadian-listed shares of BlackBerry (BB.TO), tumbled over 15% after the technology company forecast a 21.4% decline in second-quarter revenue, due to weakness in its cybersecurity segment. Technology stocks (.SPTTTK) slumped 1.8%, leading sectoral declines and hitting their lowest levels in more than a month. Peyto Exploration & Development (PEY.TO) shares fell 2.4%, after the natural gas firm agreed to buy Spanish energy company Repsol's (REP.MC) assets in Canada for $468 million.

Persons: Chris Helgren, Peyto, Morningstar, Siddarth, Tasim Zahid, Shilpi Majumdar Organizations: Toronto Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Spain's, Toronto Stock, BlackBerry, Peyto, Development, U.S, Thomson Locations: Toronto , Ontario, Canada, Toronto, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Canadian dollar posts biggest loss in 1 month as economy shrinks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. The loonie was trading 0.6% lower at 1.3595 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.56 U.S. cents, its biggest decline since Aug. 1. "The Bank of Canada's job is done," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. "The Canadian dollar is selling off because the debate will quickly shift to when rate cuts are coming. Separate data showed that the contraction in Canada's manufacturing sector gathered pace in August.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Adam Button, It's, Fergal Smith, Frances Kerry, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, Canadian, U.S, of Canada, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, Canada

☆ Canadian dollar posts biggest monthly decline since February
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3515 to the greenback, or 73.99 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3505 to 1.3557. For the month, the currency lost 2.4%, its biggest monthly decline since February. "The laggards (in August) among G10 currencies are predominantly the commodity complex," said Michael Goshko, senior market analyst at Convera Canada. Canadian government bond yields were mixed across the curve, with the 10-year down 1 basis point at 3.566%.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Michael Goshko, Fergal Smith, Grant McCool Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, U.S, Convera, New Zealand, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, China, Norwegian, Canadian

☆ Savers dash for Belgian bond aimed at pushing banks to raise deposit rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Aug 25 (Reuters) - Belgium saw 4 billion euros of demand from savers for a new bond it launched on Thursday, its debt agency said, a strong start for the sale aimed at pressuring banks to raise their deposit rates. European lenders awash with cash have been resisting raising savings rates despite a surge in market interest rates as central banks fight inflation, prompting withdrawals by households looking for better returns elsewhere. "We want to boost competition and encourage banks to raise interest rates." On Thursday, the first day of the sale, savers bought 2.098 billion euros ($2.27 billion) of the bond, the debt agency said, followed by at least another 1.902 billion euros so far on Friday. But Jean Deboutte, director at Belgium's debt agency, noted some banks in Belgium had already raised their rates following plans for the new bond.

Persons: Jean Deboutte, Yoruk, Sudip Kar, Susan Fenton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: Yoruk Bahceli, Gupta, Thomson Locations: Belgium, Amsterdam, Brussels

☆ Rupee likely to remain under pressure on rising US yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FILE PHOTO-A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, August 13, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File PhotoMUMBAI, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to remain under pressure on Friday after longer maturity U.S. yields reached the highest level this year. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open slightly weaker to the U.S. dollar from 82.7225 in the previous session. "The rupee and the whole EM complex will not see any sort of relief if the volatility in U.S. yields remains high." The Fitch downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, broadly resilient U.S. data and rising U.S. inflation expectations have contributed to the selloff in Treasuries.

Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Fitch, Nimesh Vora, Sonia Cheema Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reserve Bank of India, U.S ., Reuters, NFP, DBS Research, Brent, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, MUMBAI, Treasuries, U.S

☆ Canadian dollar hits 2-month low after surprise jobs loss
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie", is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto January 23, 2015. For the week, the risk-sensitive currency was down 0.9%, its third straight weekly decline, as a jump in long-term bond yields rattled equity market investors. The Canadian economy shed 6,400 jobs in July, missing estimates for a gain of 21,100, while the jobless rate ticked up to 5.5%. Money markets see chances of another Bank of Canada rate hike this year at about 50%, down from 80% before the jobs report. Canadian government bond yields fell across the curve.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Jay Zhao, Murray, Fergal Smith, Grant McCool Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, Canadian, U.S, Bank of Canada, Monex Canada, Canada, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO

☆ C$ hits 3-week low as 'cracks' emerge in Canada's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A Canadian dollar coin, commonly known as the "Loonie," is pictured in this illustration picture taken in Toronto, January 23, 2015. "The (U.S.) dollar is reasserting itself as the champion of the currency market and the Canadian dollar is just caught in that wave," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive. S&P Global's measure of Canadian manufacturing activity edged higher last month to 49.6 from 48.8 in June. Canada's employment report for July, due on Friday, could offer further clues on the strength of domestic activity. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, edged lower on signs of profit-taking after a rally in July.

Persons: Mark Blinch, Adam Button, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, greenback, PMI, Canadian, U.S, ., Thomson Locations: Toronto, TORONTO, U.S

☆ Canadian dollar hits 2-week low as rate hikes 'begin to bite'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3240 to the greenback, or 75.53 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since July 11 at 1.3249. The data suggests "that underlying momentum is weakening as higher borrowing costs begin to bite," Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said in a note. Hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy boosted Wall Street and the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports. The 10-year was down 8.1 basis points at 3.536%, while it dropped 4.1 basis points further below the U.S. equivalent to a gap of 43.6 basis points. Reporting by Fergal Smith Editing by Alistair BellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Karl Schamotta, Fergal Smith, Alistair Bell Organizations: greenback, U.S, Bank, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: TORONTO, U.S

☆ Canadian dollar edges higher as oil prices climb
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Canadian dollar strengthens 0.2% against the greenbackPrice of U.S. oil increases 2%Canada manufacturing PMI dips to 48.8 in JuneCanadian bond yields rise across the curveTORONTO, July 4 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as oil prices rose and despite domestic data that showed factory activity slowing further in June. Speculators have slashed their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday. The price of oil , one of Canada's major exports, climbed 2% to $71.16 a barrel as markets weighed August supply cuts by top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia against a weak global economic outlook. Contraction in Canada's manufacturing sector deepened slightly in June as an uncertain economic outlook weighed on both domestic and foreign demand. Canadian government bond yields were higher across the curve, with the 10-year up 6.4 basis points at 3.335%.

Persons: greenback Price, Fergal Smith, Josie Kao Organizations: greenback, Canadian, U.S, U.S . Commodity Futures Trading, P Global Canada Manufacturing, Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson Locations: Canada, TORONTO, Saudi Arabia, Russia

The central bank is worried that the Canadian economy is running too hot for inflation to return to its 2% target and that if it waits to act, inflation expectations could rise, making matters worse. The central bank lifted its benchmark rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% this month and is expected to tighten further in July or September. A hard landing for the economy, or a recession, could raise unemployment, something the BoC has been hoping to avoid. "I'm not going to be betting against interest rates and I'm not going to be betting against policy lags." The data has left analysts pushing back their forecasts of a slowdown to later in 2023 or in 2024 but accompanied by higher than anticipated interest rates.

Persons: Karl Schamotta, David Rosenberg, I'm, Royce Mendes, Fergal Smith, Steve Scherer, Denny Thomas, Stephen Coates Organizations: TORONTO, Bank, Bank of Canada's, BoC, Bank of Canada, Rosenberg Research, Desjardins, Thomson Locations: United States, Data, Toronto, Ottawa

☆ Asia shares buoyed by Fed pause bets; dollar heavy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese and Australian bond yields followed those on U.S. Treasuries lower, and the dollar remained on the defensive early in the Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) added 0.6%, and at one point touched its strongest level since Feb. 16. Traders now lay 1-in-4 odds for the Fed to raise rates by a quarter point on June 14, versus 75% probability of a pause. "I wouldn't go all in and say we're going to get a rate hike, but I think we should be at least 50% priced," said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets in Sydney. The dollar added 0.15% to 139.135 yen , after earlier slipping to a one-week low of 138.765.

Persons: Hong, Tony Sycamore, Jerome, Powell's, Powell, undertightening, Tayyip Erdogan's, WTI fututes, Kevin Buckland, Stephen Coates Organizations: Federal Reserve, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, IG Markets, New, U.S, West Texas, Brent, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, Sydney, Tokyo, New York, U.S, United States, Iran

Foreign holdings of Italian government paper increased in February after 10 consecutive monthly declines, according to Bank of Italy data. "This is a magic moment for Italian bonds," he told Reuters. The share of Italian government debt held by foreign investors fell to below 20% at the end of 2022 from around 50% before the 2008 financial crisis, Bank of Italy data shows. The Italian Treasury has already taken steps to shore up demand for its bonds as the ECB retreats, by boosting purchases among domestic households and companies. Together, Italian families and firms now hold around 215 billion euros, or 9%, of Rome's debt, UniCredit's Cazzulani said, the highest level since mid-2015.

That means portfolio managers are having to factor a stronger yen into global stock selection in way they have not for years, with some even anticipating mergers and acquisitions as the Japanese market revs up. "The trigger for the revaluation of the Japanese markets is higher rates and then a stronger yen. Japan's insurers and pension funds alone hold $1.84 trillion in foreign assets, Deutsche Bank calculates, greater than the size of South Korea's economy. "Policy normalisation could turn back the clock for Japanese investors," Deutsche Bank strategists said in a note. Carmignac, like many global investors, has maintained an underweight position towards Japanese stocks but, Leroux said, it was looking to raise this to neutral.

☆ Investors turn net sellers of global equity funds on recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Data from Refinitiv Lipper showed investors sold equity funds worth $2.25 billion in the week, compared with a $215 million net purchase the previous week. Rate hike expectations also affected the bond market, as investors turned net sellers of global bond funds for the first time in five weeks. Investors withdrew $1.68 billion from government bond funds in their first weekly net selling in 10 weeks. Meanwhile, investors exited $89.35 billion worth of global money market funds after a seven-week buying spree. Data for 23,920 emerging market funds showed investors purchased $384 million worth of equity funds in a fourth week of net buying while securing $513 million worth of bond funds.

☆ C$ posts biggest gain in nearly 2 months on OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 6.3% higher at $84.93 a barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, jolted markets with plans to cut more production. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3412 per greenback, or 74.56 U.S. cents, its biggest single-day advance since Feb. 10 and its strongest level since Feb. 16. Canadian government bond yields eased across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 1.5 basis points at 2.884%, while the gap between it and its U.S. equivalent narrowed by four basis points to 55.1 basis points in favor of the U.S. bond. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Goldman Sachs executives to rally investors in New York
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A Goldman Sachs sign is seen above their booth on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, January 19, 2011. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File PhotoNEW YORK, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc's (GS.N) Chief Executive David Solomon and top executives will give investors an update on their strategy on Tuesday. DAN DEES, CO-HEAD OF GLOBAL BANKING & MARKETS, 52Dan Dees is the co-head of Goldman's global banking and markets division. JULIAN SALISBURY, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER OF ASSET AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT, 51Julian Salisbury is chief investment officer of Goldman's asset and wealth management unit. KIM POSNETT, CO-HEAD OF ONE GOLDMAN SACHS, 45Kim Posnett is co-head of One Goldman Sachs, the company's program to unify its approach to clients across divisions.

MUMBAI, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The anticipation of Housing Development Finance Corp (HDFC.NS), India's largest mortgage lender, executing an interest-rate hedge once it completes its mega bond sale this week, is driving longer-duration bond yields lower, traders said on Wednesday. "HDFC is likely to do the trade on or post Friday, once it receives the money from its bond issuance," one of the bankers said. Under the trade, the banks will pay HDFC the yield on a government bond and in return receive the benchmark overnight rate plus a markup. The price risk on the bond is borne by HDFC and hence the name total return swap (TRS). And when the banks execute these swaps, there will likely be bunched-up demand for these bonds, which will pressure yields, traders said.

BENGALURU, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Indian shares reversed earlier gains to close lower on Wednesday, led by a fall in insurance companies after the country's Union budget proposed to limit tax exemptions for insurance proceeds, while Adani Group shares tumbled. This was the worst budget day performance by Nifty 50 (.NSEI) in three years, since the 2.51% fall in 2020. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, Indian bond yields dropped after the government announced gross borrowing at 15.43 trillion rupees ($188.75 billion) for the next financial year. A Reuters poll had pegged gross borrowing at 16 trillion rupees. Indian insurance companies were top losers post budget, with HDFC Life (HDFL.NS), SBI Life Insurance (SBIL.NS), ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Co (ICIR.NS), Life Insurance of India (LIFI.NS), General Insurance Corp (GENA.NS) and Max Financial (MAXI.NS) tumbling between 8.5% to 12.5%.

☆ Bank floats $10 bln Brazilian bond plan to halt Amazon deforestation
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Strategists at a UK bank have proposed the idea of a super-sized $10 billion Brazilian government bond that would be specifically designed to help halt the destruction of the Amazon rainforest. Stopping deforestation of the Amazon, which absorbs vast amounts of planet-warming greenhouse gas, is part of Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's sweeping plan to reclaim leadership on climate change measures. Money raised via sustainability-linked debt can be used for almost any purpose. "As a reference, a 2034 Brazilian bond is currently yielding around 6.35%, making the step up/down feature potentially financially material for Brazil," Vivanco's initial outline of the plan last week said. "If Lula goes around the world selling this bond, you would have to have a reason not to be part of it," Vivanco said.

☆ Euro zone bond yields jump a day after hawkish ECB
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs rose on Friday as investors revised their forecasts for bond yields after the European Central Bank pledged further monetary tightening to fight inflation. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark of the bloc, touched 2.208% on Friday, its highest in a month, and was last up 8 basis points at 2.17%. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was at -28.5 bps after briefly hitting its lowest since 1992 at -41.9 bps. The yield spread was at 1 bp after falling into negative territory to as low as -15 bps. Rohan Khanna head of European and UK rates at UBS forecast the Italian-German yield spread in the 200-250 bps range in 2023.

The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."

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