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Bank of America's global fund manager survey showed the percentage of portfolio managers who are overweight U.S. stocks soared to 29% — its highest level since August 2013 — from 10% before the U.S. presidential election. Small caps, which stand to benefit greatly from less regulation, reduced taxes and faster economic growth, have outperformed large caps since the election. .SPX DJIA,.IXIC,IWM YTD mountain SPX, Nasdaq, Dow and IWM year to date BofA's chief investment startegist Michael Hartnett noted this trend is likely to continue. "Post-election results show net 35% [of fund managers surveyed] expect small caps to outperform large caps, which would have been the most since Feb'21," he said. This would make it next to impossible for the Federal Reserve to justify lowering interest rates, which could hurt equities — especially small caps.
Persons: , Stocks, Donald Trump, Russell, SPX DJIA, startegist Michael Hartnett Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Atlantic, Nvidia Locations: Nasdaq
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Separately, the estate of crypto exchange FTX sued Binance and its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, over a "fraudulent" share deal. Some think the rally is getting ahead of itself, writes CNBC Pro's Fred Imbert. A Wall Street analyst pointed out that, according to history, one ostensibly bullish sign actually portends retreats in the near term.
Persons: FTX, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Donald Trump, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, NatWest, Metrics, Trust, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Trump, U.S
"For example, during Trump's previous administration, deregulation in the energy sector boosted oil and gas stocks, benefiting energy ETFs." Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (BND), two of the world's largest bond ETFs, and longer-term funds like iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Crypto ETFS having big year and getting bigger Since launching in January, crypto ETFs have attracted roughly $70 billion in assets, one of the most successful ETF launches ever. Bitcoin ETFs including the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest bitcoin ETF by assets under management, have seen significant inflows since October. Rosenberg at Texas Capital acknowledges that certain ETF sectors, like industrials ( Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF , or VIS; iShares U.S. Industrials ETF , or IYJ), "could be hurt by more tariffs."
Persons: Trump, Tom Lydon, John Davi, iShares Russell, ROE, Matt Bartolini, Bartolini, Gavi, Edward Rosenberg, Gary Gensler, Michael Novogratz, Cathie Wood, Todd Sohn, Wood, Davi, Rosenberg, industrials Organizations: Astoria, CNBC, Potential Trump, Bank ETF, Assets ETF, Trump, ETF Research, Street Global Advisors, Regional Bank ETF, Treasury, Aggregate Bond, Vanguard, Fund, Treasury Bond ETF, Texas, SEC, Commodity Futures, Galaxy Digital Holdings, ARK, Innovation, ARKK, Downside, China ETF, Texas Capital, Index, Industrials, U.S, Edge Locations: Astoria, Congress, rulemaking, Coinbase, China, Mexico
Blackrock iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) signage at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York on Jan. 11, 2024. The rapidly growing iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has now blown past one of the biggest funds in an old-school category of investing: gold. According to FactSet, the bitcoin exchange-traded fund had roughly $34.3 billion in AUM as of Friday. That puts it above the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) , which had just under $33 billion. The asset numbers do not yet reflect the most recent crypto rally over the weekend, when bitcoin surged above $80,000.
Persons: FactSet, bitcoin, IBIT Organizations: Blackrock, Nasdaq, Trust Locations: New York
Opportunities abound for income-seeking investors, even as the 10-year Treasury has seen a volatile week, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder. The iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (USHY) , for instance, has a duration of 3.2 years and a 30-day SEC yield of 7.22%. Meanwhile, the Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund (VWEHX) has an average duration of 2.9 years, and a 30-day SEC yield of 6.03%. "You can stay higher quality, floating rate oriented, and clip yield," Rieder said. He thinks it's prime time for income investors to snap up yield without stretching into lower quality.
Persons: BlackRock's Rick Rieder, Donald Trump, Rieder, CLOs, Janus Henderson Organizations: Treasury, Federal, BlackRock, CNBC, Standard, SEC, Fund, AAA, Janus Henderson AAA CLO Locations: CLOs, Europe
Donald Trump's second presidency could help supercharge small cap stocks further, according to Fundstrat managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. "Since 1987 small caps traded on a median price-to-earnings [ratio] at a premium basis to the S & P 500, and the S & P 500 is at 17 times. I think small caps could over the next couple of years outperform by more than 100%," Lee told CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Friday. Lee is also bullish on equities more broadly, and doesn't limit his optimistic outlook to only small caps. He also forecast the S & P 500 could break above 6,000 before the end of the year and top 6,700 in 2025.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Russell, Stocks, Trump's, haven't, FundStrat Organizations: Trump, U.S, Granny Shots, Tesla, Oracle
U.S. government bond yields have surged too, puzzling many market participants. I am going to stick with the contrarian view and bet on rates continuing to move higher. I'll express that through a bearish bet on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which tracks bond prices. Various inputs have driven yields higher, creating the opposite outcome for the Fed as they continue to try to land the proverbial plane. Jeffrey Gundlach stated (post Fed meeting) that interest rates could shoot even higher if Republicans end up controlling the House too.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, TLT Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Japan is one stock market outside the U.S. that could win now that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. Trump has previously proposed tariffs of up to 20% on imports, with a stringent tax of 60% on goods coming from China. Japanese stocks rallied, however, as the yen weakened with some investors expecting the U.S. defense partner stands to gain most from Trump's policies. However, Akutsu warned, with few positive earnings surprises in the market, a year-end rally could be "limited in scope." Takada said investors may have to weigh the near-term benefits of a Trump market against the risks of a possible trade war, even with a rise in the Japanese equity risk premium.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello, What's, Pasquariello, America's Masashi Akutsu, Akutsu, Morgan's Masanari Takada, Takada, It's Organizations: Nikkei, Bank, Bank of America, Hitachi, Retailing, Trump Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe
Donald Trump's return to the White House sparked a big move higher in small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks were seen as potential winners under a second Trump presidency, as investors expect it would ease regulations on businesses — which tend to weigh more heavily on smaller businesses. Wednesday's gains in small caps were led by private prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic , which were up roughly 20% each. Small-cap stocks have trailed their large-cap counterparts this year. Notably, small caps outperformed in the 3mos after both the Trump 2016 and Biden 2020 wins."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Jason Goepfert, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, IWM, Wells, Chris Harvey, Robert Krankowski Organizations: Trump, DOJ, FTC, Congress, Wolfe Research, Geo, Biden, UBS, Ferrari Locations: Wells Fargo
Several U.S.-listed funds tracking global stocks pulled back in Wednesday's session as investors considered Donald Trump's victory harmful to international equities. "While the investing landscape remains favorable in the U.S., international markets are very exposed to tariff policy, " said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment officer at BMO Wealth Management. These moves reflect the divergence between U.S. and international markets as investors around the globe take in America's election results. Still, the U.S.-listed iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) shed more than 2% on Wednesday. Indeed, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) slid more than 1% on Wednesday.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump's, Yung, Yu Ma, Javier Milei, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, , Sarah Min, Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim Organizations: U.S, NBC, BMO Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Trump, Japan's Nikkei, American, ICE, greenback, LPL Financial Locations: Paris, France, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Chile, U.S, China, Europe, Asia, Pacific, Argentina
Bitcoin, an asset tied to a Trump victory given the candidates courtship of the industry, soared to a record $75,000 . Heading into the election, investors and analysts pointed to several stocks and sectors that could benefit from a Trump win. Here's a roundup of some of those: Steel stocks If Trump regains the presidency, JPMorgan expects steel stocks to outperform . Related stocks that could outperform under a Trump victory include Nucor , Cleveland-Cliffs , Kaiser Aluminum and MP Materials , according to Peterson. Supporters of Trump have also used the stock as a way to invest in a Trump victory.
Persons: Donald Trump ., Trump, Kamala Harris, Here's, Bill Peterson, Peterson, UBS's, Goldman Sachs, Strategas, Lazard, Wolfe, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Marion Laboure, bitcoin, Nic Puckrin, David Zerzos, Zerzos, Marcelli, Seth Seifman, Russell, Joe Biden, IWM, , Halliburton, Trump's, ULTA, Michael Bloom, Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh Organizations: U.S, NBC, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Trump, JPMorgan, Aluminum, Financials Bank of America, of America, UBS's Trump, UBS, Swiss, Citigroup, Citizens, Wolfe Research, GOP, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, ISI, Deutsche Bank, Investors, Jefferies, Military, Strategas, Gas Energy, Evercore ISI, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, Companies Locations: Nucor, Cleveland, U.S, China, U.S . Southern
Generally, a Trump win is seen as positive for financials given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency. One is made up of stocks that benefit after a Harris win; the other would outperform under a second Trump presidency. However, a Harris win is expected to keep current regulation measures in place, and possibly introduce new ones. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone would also benefit under a Trump win.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Daniel Clifton, Strategas, Andrew Garthwaite, Trump, Garthwaite, TAN, we've, Biden, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Boruchow, , Russell, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Crypto, isn't, Nic Puckrin, bitcoin, Marcelli, Financials, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Lazard Organizations: Congress, U.S ., Trump, U.S . Trump, GOP, Democratic, CNBC Pro, Wall, Strategas, Enterprise, of America, Ford, UBS, Apple, Enphase Energy, Technologies Enphase, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Cadence Bank, Viking Therapeutics, Bureau, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Lazard, Private, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore Locations: Washington, of America Cleveland, Cleveland, China
Uncertainty is the key theme for markets on the eve of Election Day, but fixed income investors say there are a few opportunities to snap up solid yield even as the market holds its breath. "We are constructive on fixed income as a whole, despite these uncertainties, and we're stressing to investors that yields are really quite attractive – and the income generation we can get from fixed income right now is quite powerful," Persson added. On the municipal bond side, offerings include the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) , which has a 30-day SEC yield of 3.35%. Vanguard also has its Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEB) , with a 30-day SEC yield of 3.4%. The iShares MBS ETF (MBB) has a 30-day SEC yield of 4.01% and a net expense ratio of 0.04%.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Andrew Szczurowski, Eaton, Anders Persson, Persson, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Baird Organizations: NBC News, Income, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Federal, Treasury, Muni Bond ETF, SEC, Vanguard, Bond, SPDR, MBS, Fidelity Intermediate Bond Fund, Bond Fund Locations: Washington, Nuveen
"What's driving price action is undoubtedly the election," Nic Puckrin, CEO and co-founder at crypto education site Coin Bureau, said of the November outlook. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin YTD Republican nominee former President Donald Trump has courted the crypto industry this year, presenting himself as the pro-crypto candidate . October and November are historically strong months for bitcoin, finishing higher in seven of the past 11 Novembers. "Volatility has decreased for both gold and bitcoin as traders look forward to the [election] results, although both assets have benefited from positive underlying fundamentals incrementally driving the price up." "The main danger we foresee would be temporary angst around election results affecting sentiment and holding back further development of the ecosystem," Chung added.
Persons: Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Kamala Harris –, Nic Puckrin, Trump, bitcoin, Donald Trump, Harris, Devin Ryan, there's, Needham's John Todaro, Chris Chung, Chung, Michael Bloom Organizations: Republican, Democratic, Citizens, Trump, bitcoin, JPMorgan, BTC, Solana Locations: Washington, U.S
"The differences between Trump and Harris are as wide as we have ever seen." Differences in trade policy specifically, he said, are going to "determine where growth and earnings take place around the world." In contrast to Trump's trade policy, reduced trade tensions under Harris could lead to gains for FedEx , which has advanced more than 8% this year. During that debate, Harris also accused Trump of gearing up to abandon support of Ukraine. If Harris were to win the election, Clifton believes RTX is beneficiary of continued U.S. support of Ukraine.
Persons: Strategas, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Daniel Clifton, Harris, Clifton, Lazard, Trump, RTX Organizations: U.S, NBC, Trump, Republican, Basel III, Nasdaq, FedEx, Biden, NextEra Energy Locations: China, Basel, India, Cleveland, Southern, Ukraine, U.S
Investors have been heavily buying two very different categories of assets ahead of next week's election: bonds and bitcoin . Bank of America credit strategist Yuri Seliger highlighted a shift toward bond buying among fund investors over the past week. A look at the list of most popular ETFs on FactSet over the past week shows that the demand for bonds has been broad across categories. Funds for investment grade corporate bonds, municipal bonds, mortgage backed securities, long-term Treasury bonds and high yield bonds are all in the top 20 funds by inflows over the past week. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has raked in more than $2 billion of inflows over the past week, according to FactSet.
Persons: Yuri Seliger, Seliger, outflows Organizations: Bank of, HG, HY, Bank of America, , JPMorgan
BlackRock's iShares is trying to appeal to investors who want to diversify beyond from the so-called Magnificent Seven. The firm launched the iShares Top 20 U.S. Stocks ETF (TOPT) this month. It doesn't just hold the Magnificent Seven — Apple , Amazon , Meta , Alphabet , Microsoft , Nvidia and Tesla . It's made up of the 20 largest U.S. stocks by market capitalization. Aguirre, the firm's head of U.S. iShares product, noted the ETF's mission is to deliver an easy and accessible way to tap into the innovation of megacaps – "whether that be in the tech-heavy Nasdaq space or, more broadly, within the S&P [500]."
Persons: iShares, It's, BlackRock's Rachel Aguirre, CNBC's, Aguirre Organizations: Stocks, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla
By contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris's tax plan is expected to increase tax revenues by $1.7 trillion over 10 years, but at a cost of negative 2% to long-run GDP and 786,000 jobs. The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania estimates that, including her spending proposals, the primary deficits would increase by $1.2 trillion, and accounting for adverse economic feedback effects, primary deficits increase to $2 trillion. Higher deficits and higher debts, just with different paths to get there. One candidate proposes cutting taxes to improve economic activity but increase deficits, and the other proposes raising taxes and increasing spending by even more and growing deficits. If the deficit keeps increasing faster than our economy grows, so will the debt, inflation, and interest rates.
Persons: We'll, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris's, Harris, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Treasuries Organizations: Tax Foundation, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Medicare, Green New Deal, TLT, Treasury Bond ETF, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: United States, Europe
The new year is commencing with most sectors — and stocks — being overvalued, according to Kotak's analysts. Here are four buy-rated Indian stocks with over 30% potential upside that analysts are betting on this Diwali. Kotak has a 12-month target price of 2,140 Indian rupees ($25.45) on the stock, implying around 40.8% potential upside. Other factors in its favor include regulatory tailwinds promoting recycling and the formalization of reverse charge mechanism on metal scrap, Kotak's analysts wrote in a Sept. 30 note. "SHK['s] tiny relative to global majors, but its technical capabilities are reputable," Kotak's analysts wrote in their Sept. 30 re-initiation report.
Persons: Kotak, Kelkar, Gabriel India, Organizations: South, Kotak Securities, Bombay Stock Exchange, Industries Fiem Industries, India's National Stock Exchange, Company, BSE, Anand, Gabriel Locations: India, automotives
Foruteen of the analysts covering Zillow rate it either a strong buy or buy, while 11 view it as a hold. The average price target represents potential 7% upside. The majority of analysts are bullish on platform, while the average price target implies 33% upside. Analyst Kirk Materne's $610 price target is roughly 9% higher than where HubSpot stock is currently trading. Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on HubSpot, with the average price target representing a potential 11% gain.
Persons: Zillow, Foruteen, Wedbush, Jay McCanless, McCanless, Pinterest, Justin Post, HubSpot, Kirk Materne's Organizations: CNBC Pro, Investment, Bank of America, ISI, Software Locations: outperforming, Zillow
Options traders are buckling down for outsized volatility around next week's election, according to Goldman Sachs. Two of the funds with the highest implied volatility are linked to China: the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) and the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) . Crypto is already a volatile area, but Trump's embrace of the industry during his campaign could spark a significant reaction. The options market implies a move of more than 7% for ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) , according to Goldman. BITO, which holds bitcoin futures, did not exist in 2020, so there are no prior election comparisons for the fund.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Marshall, Donald Trump's, Crypto, Goldman, BITO Organizations: CSI China Internet, Regional Banking, Republicans, ProShares, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission Locations: China, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBlackRock’s new ETF offers 'solution to precisely capture growth' of megacaps, says Rachel AguirreRachel Aguirre, head of U.S. iShares products at BlackRock, sits down with CNBC’s Bob Pisani to discuss the firm’s new ETFs that allow investors to customize their exposure to U.S. large caps.
Persons: Rachel Aguirre Rachel Aguirre, CNBC’s Bob Pisani Locations: BlackRock
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) have tumbled more than 9% and 10%, respectively. While Trump's platform says he wants to unleash production from all sources, the document specifically calls out oil, gas and nuclear. How voters perceive the two candidates' energy policies could end up playing an influential role in the outcome of the election altogether. While the election will bring short-term volatility, the solar industry remains well positioned for long-term growth, according to Bank of America. About 25% of oil and 10% of natural gas production is on federal land and waters, according to the bank.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, fracking, Barack Obama, Trump, Steve Fleishman, Roger Read, Read, Biden, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Trump, Republican, Green New, Clean Energy, Bank of America, Keystone State, GOP, Republicans, Democratic, Wolfe Research, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities . Oil, Biden, CNBC, Exxon, Chevron Locations: Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, China, Trump, Wells Fargo, U.S, New Mexico, Gulf of Mexico, Alaska, Iran, Tehran
The electricity industry is transforming, according to Morgan Stanley, and multiple power producers, grid operators and utilities are set to benefit. "Global power markets have surprised on multiple fronts, and investors are navigating a new normal in the power value chain," they added. Morgan Stanley's analysts named three overweight-rated global stocks in the electricity sector which they give more than 40% potential upside. RWE RWE : Morgan Stanley notes that the German power giant, which generates and trades electricity, is exposed to "tight electricity markets rewarding flexibility + value creation in renewables in Europe & US." AES Corp. AES Corp.: Morgan Stanley highlighted the company's "expanding renewable portfolio" as a theme to watch.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Morgan, RWE, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Frankfurt Stock Exchange, American Depository, AES Corp, U.S, Global X FTSE, Asia, Malaysian Locations: Asia, Europe, U.S, Nasional Tenaga Nasional, Malaysian, Bursa Malaysia, Malaysia
Below, two gold experts share four ways investors can add gold to their portfolios. AdvertisementIn general, physical gold is a less liquid way to own the asset and is quite costly. Synthetic gold ETFs don't hold physical gold, investing instead in gold derivatives such as futures and options. In Milling-Stanley's opinion, investing in mining stocks instead of directly investing in gold erodes some of the metal's portfolio protection, as mining stocks behave more in line with the general equity market. Royalties limit the holder's exposure to the risks associated with directly investing in mines, such as exploration, development, and regulatory compliance.
Persons: , Jeff Muhlenkamp, they'll, George Milling, Stanley, Muhlenkamp Organizations: Service, Costco, Muhlenkamp & Company, State Street Global Advisors, Trust, MiniShares, Mining, Eagle Mines, Newmont Mining Corp, Wheaton Precious Metals Locations: Franco, Nevada
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