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That changed in September when U.S. central bank officials themselves sensed that progress on housing inflation might have stalled. Data released on Thursday confirmed a jump in shelter prices that, for a month at least, bucked the trend. "The uptick in housing inflation this month was the key surprise. Housing inflation will need to decline sharply over the coming months for us to see inflation near 2%." In the list of risks for inflation to remain elevated, Fed officials in September pointed to "the effects of a strong housing market."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Olu Sonola, aren't, Jerome Powell, Kathy Bostjancic, disinflation Powell, Andrew Hunter, CoreLogic, Hunter, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Fitch, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Capital Economics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said higher market interest rates may help the Fed slow inflation, and let the central bank "watch and see" if its own policy rate needs to rise again or not. We will see how those higher rates feed into what we do on policy in the coming months." Waller's comments added weight to similar statements this week by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Still, Waller offered some of the most optimistic reads yet on the path of inflation. "We're finally getting very good inflation data," he said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Paul Ryan, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, We're, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal, Republican, Wisconsin, Dallas Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Utah

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

According to the minutes, "several participants" felt that "the focus of monetary policy decisions and communications should shift from how high to raise the policy rate to how long to hold the policy rate at restrictive levels." For now, "all participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time" until it is clear inflation "is moving down sustainably toward its objective." The release on Thursday of the consumer price index report for September could add to the impetus for the Fed to remain on hold. Waller said that if recent month-to-month inflation trends continue, it would mean "we're pretty much back to our target." Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller, Waller, Paul Ryan, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Treasury, U.S . House, Investors, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Utah

“I will remain cognizant of the tightening in financial conditions through higher bond yields and will keep that in mind as I assess the future path of policy,” Jefferson said in remarks to the National Association for Business Economics. The remarks by Jefferson and earlier by Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan, one of the Fed system's more influential voices on financial markets, caused investors to undercut the likelihood of further Fed rate increases. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate," said Logan, who has been among the more hawkish officials in supporting the need for continued rate increases. Since the Fed last raised its policy interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in July, long-term bond yields have risen a full percentage point, a fast rate of change for a massive market. A rise in the so-called “term premium," if it proves persistent, could put an enduring drag on the economy and perhaps give the Fed less reason to raise its own policy rate.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, ” Jefferson, Jefferson, Lorie Logan, FedWatch, Gregory Daco, Logan, policymaker, Chris Varvares, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, Treasury, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, New York Fed, Fed, P, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jefferson, Israel

For the bottom 40% by income that means a smaller slice of the pie even as their net worth has risen at the swiftest pace in years. said Elise Gould, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington-based think tank focused on labor issues. The newest data suggest that trends of higher wealth and income concentration survived pretty much intact. Yet Dynan noted that the rise in wealth over that period was 30% for families in the 80th to 99th income percentiles and more than 40% for the top 1%. Reuters GraphicsOLD TRENDS HOLD FASTThe Fed's quarterly data on wealth distribution estimates asset holdings and liabilities across racial, educational, age and income groups, and their shares of national totals.

Persons: Elise Gould, They've, Biden, Karen Dynan, Dynan, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Census Bureau, Economic Policy Institute, United Auto Workers, Harvard University, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington

"The markets will also be following what the scenarios are looking like," he said, and whether, after decades of instability in the Middle East, this outbreak of violence evolves differently. "The question will be is this iteration something that will throw the long-term equilibrium out of balance?" "The conflict poses a risk of higher oil prices, and risks to both inflation and the growth outlook," said Karim Basta, chief economist at III Capital Management, leaving the Fed to sort out whether higher prices or slower growth is the greater concern. To the extent the Israeli war with Hamas heightens concerns about the global economy it could reverse that trend if capital rushes towards the relative safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, as often happens at times of potential crisis. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Ronen, It’s, Agustin Carstens, Carl Tannenbaum, Karim Basta, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank for International, National Association for Business Economics, Federal Reserve, Northern Trust, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, III Capital Management, Fed, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, Ukraine, U.S, Morocco, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Suez

[1/2] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. The report will be released at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT), based on surveys conducted before a United Auto Workers strike could influence the outcome. "We think the Fed would like to see a bit more evidence of cooling labor market conditions than we expect," Oxford Economics lead U.S. economist Nancy Vanden Houten wrote this week. But she said that wage gains were likely to prove a bit stronger than the month before. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nancy Vanden Houten, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wage, Fed, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, Oxford

[1/2] A view shows the entrance of the venue for the upcoming meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, following last month's deadly earthquake, in Marrakech, Morocco October 1, 2023. Reuters GraphicsThe yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond this week pierced 5% for the first time since 2007. Long-term U.S. yields have climbed roughly 1 percentage point in the past three months compared with a single quarter-percentage-point Fed rate hike during that period. Keeping the world's largest economy out of recession provides steadier demand for other countries' exports, as well as more certainty as Fed rate hikes hit a stopping point. The fallout depends on "how much further, and how quickly, bond yields rise," they said.

Persons: Abdelhak, China's, Goldman Sachs, Gene Tannuzzo, Tannuzzo, Karen Dynan, it's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, U.S ., Treasuries, Reuters, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Columbia Threadneedle, Harvard University, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Capital Economics, Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, U.S, Washington, California

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters alongside the release of a new policy essay. Part of that adaptation is how the Fed's short-term benchmark is translated ultimately into mortgage rates, corporate bonds yields, and other securities that influence economic activity. In separate comments, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she similarly is watching how the rise in bond yields will play out, even though she feels the Fed's policy rate still needs to rise. It may well be that the Fed's hawkish rate posture is no longer the primary impetus for the rise in yields. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Torsten Slok, Slok, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, U.S, Cleveland Fed, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Fitch, Treasury Department, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, Atlanta, China, York

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters. "I don't think the degree of response to date has been out of bounds" of what would happen "in an ordinary tightening cycle." But even though he agreed that recent jumps in long-term yields have been unusual, Bostic joined several of his colleagues in downplaying their relevance to policy - at least so far. "There is a lot going on and I cannot say I have all the answers," Bostic said. The things we are looking at is the pace at which the economy slows," not the rates themselves.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Atlanta Fed, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, U.S, China

☆ Fed's Bostic sees no 'urgency' to raise rates again, but cuts a long way off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO:President and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic speaks at the South African Reserve Bank's Biennial Conference in the Cape Town International Convention Centre, South Africa, August 31, 2023. "I don't think there is an urgency for us to do anything more ... I think that is the appropriate thing to do for a long time," Bostic said. The current policy rate "is starting to slow the economy down. Recent data showing a decline in the underlying pace of inflation is expected by many investors to hold the benchmark policy rate steady.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Esa Alexander, Bostic, Let's, Howard Schneider, Andrew Heavens, Will Dunham Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, South African, Bank's, Cape Town International Convention Centre, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Metro Atlanta Chamber, Federal, Fed, Thomson Locations: South Africa, Atlanta

YORK, Pa., Oct 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is still dealing with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said during a meeting with community and business leaders in York, Pennsylvania. "We are still coming through the other side of the pandemic," Powell said, noting labor shortages in healthcare, ongoing difficulties with access to child care, and other issues heightened by the health crisis. He did not comment on current monetary policy or the economic outlook in brief opening remarks. Reporting by Howard Schneider; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Howard Schneider, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Thomson Locations: Pa, U.S, York , Pennsylvania

Families are "squeezing to make ends meet," caught between rising prices and a lack of accessible child care, Kim Bracey, chief executive of the YWCA York, told Powell. Julie Keene, owner of Flinchbaugh’s Orchard, zeroed in on inflation, and pressed Powell on the uncertain environment businesses have having to navigate. In conversations with shopkeepers, Powell and Harker focused on aspects of the businesses and the owners' backgrounds - not inflation or the impact of interest rates. Speaking with Reuters ahead of their arrival at her shop she said high interest rates were pressing her hard. "I mean, lower the interest rates," she said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Evelyn Hockstein, Powell, Kim Bracey, Julie Keene, Keene, Bracey, Gallup, Alan Greenspan, Patrick Harker, Michelle Wright, Mane, Wright, Harker, Drayden, Jennifer Heasley, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Monday, YWCA York, Philadelphia Fed, Luxe, York Central Market, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Pennsylvania, York , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Flinchbaugh’s Orchard, zeroed, Keene, Powell

Consumer price inflation rose for the second straight month, to 3.7% in August versus 3.2% in July. While the overall picture is somewhat mixed, the inflation data in recent months likely doesn't change the policy outlook. Reuters GraphicsRETAIL SALES (Released Sept. 14, next release Oct. 17):Retail sales rose more than expected in August, increasing 0.6%. Investors viewed the overall data as leaning against any further Fed rate increases. Weekly data on bank lending shows bank credit has fallen on a year-over-year basis since the middle of July.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Ann Saphir, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, University of Michigan, Reuters Graphics, Investors, Labor, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Silicon

The central bank's quest for a "soft landing" of more slowly rising prices and continued economic growth looks increasingly probable. In fact, the U.S. may hit a sweet spot just as the 2024 presidential election campaign crescendos next year. Rather than cheering, though, after years of economic turbulence since the coronavirus pandemic erupted in 2020, Americans grumble, at least if you ask them about the economy. With fast rising prices and the end of an array of pandemic-era government benefit programs, inflation-adjusted household income fell last year, and the poverty rate increased. A Biden adviser said the White House understands that the economy and inflation are a critical issue, and the campaign has a big media push planned on "Bidenomics."

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Jerome Powell, crescendos, grumble, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jimmy Carter's, Ronald Reagan, George H, Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton, Clinton, Biden, They've, that's, Robert Shiller, stupidly, Shiller, Powell, Howard Schneider, Trevor Hunnicutt, Heather Timmons, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Reuters, Republican, Biden, Democrat, U.S . Consumer, Yale University, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, U.S

"I expect rates may have to stay higher, and for longer, than previous projections had suggested," said Collins. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are scheduled to make remarks later on Friday as the Fed's "blackout" period on post-meeting policy comments lifted. The central bank's decision to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady this week was unanimous. Collins does not currently have a vote on rate policy under a Fed system that rotates votes among the 12 reserve bank presidents year by year. New projections issued at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday showed 12 of 19 Fed officials expect one additional quarter point rate increase this year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Michelle Bowman, Susan Collins, Collins, Mary Daly, Neel Kashkari, Bowman, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, . Federal, Independent Community Bankers of, Maine Bankers Association, Boston, Fed, San Francisco Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Thomson Locations: Independent Community Bankers of Colorado

The spokesperson, who would not speak for direct attribution, said the staff cuts represented a combination of attrition, including retirements, and layoffs. While small compared to the size of the Fed, it is the first time budgeted headcount has fallen since 2010. SELF-FUNDEDThe staff reductions are happening at a sensitive time for the Fed. Unlike federal agencies that spend tax dollars allocated by Congress, the Fed is self-funding. In most years the Fed generates a profit that is turned over to the U.S. Treasury.

Persons: Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal, Fed, of Governors, Reuters, Governors, Congress, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Congress

☆ Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara

☆ US government shutdown: What is it and who would be affected?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Contracts awarded prior to the shutdown would continue, and the Pentagon could place new orders for supplies or services needed to protect national security. NATIONAL PARKS AND NATURAL RESOURCESIt's not clear how the United States' 63 national parks would be affected. They remained open during the 2018-2019 shutdown, through restrooms and information desks were closed and waste disposal was halted. WHITE HOUSEIn 2018-2019 shutdown, the White House furloughed 1,100 of 1,800 staff in the Executive Office of the President. Some offices, such as the National Security Council, continued at full strength, while others like the Office of Management and Budget were scaled back sharply.

Persons: Kevin Wurm, Lockheed Martin, Donald Trump, Pete Buttigieg, Pell, Andy Sullivan, Pete Schroeder, Howard Schneider, Moira Warburton, Scott Malone, Alistair Bell Organizations: U.S, Capitol, REUTERS, Workers, Pentagon, Boeing, Lockheed, Raytheon, The, National Nuclear Security Administration, FBI, Drug Enforcement Administration, Service, Border Patrol, Coast Guard, Federal Trade, AFFAIRS U.S, National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, National Oceanographic, Atmospheric Administration, NASA, Space, Disease Control, Prevention, Food and Drug Administration, Securities, Exchange, Commodities, Futures Trading, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Currency, Social Security Administration, Veterans Administration, Federal Emergency Management Agency, Education Department, White, Small Business Administration, National Labor Relations, National Security Council, Management, U.S . Postal, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States

The Fed expects to get inflation back to its 2% target in 2026, which is later than some officials had thought possible. Financial markets had widely expected that the Fed would leave rates unchanged. Ahead of the Fed meeting, investors had been banking on significant Fed rate cuts next year, an expectation clouded by the projections that show 10 of 19 officials see the policy rate remaining above 5% through next year. Federal funds futures showed traders had downgraded their estimates of Fed rate cuts ahead. The Fed statement was approved unanimously after a two-day meeting that marked new Fed Governor Adriana Kugler's debut on the central bank policymaking stage.

Persons: Jerome Powell, We're, Bond, Stocks, Chris Wattie, I've, Powell, Olu Sonola, Omair Sharif, Adriana Kugler's, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Market, Reuters Graphics, Reserve, REUTERS, Fed, Reuters, Fitch, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Washington , DC

The new projections and the Fed's latest policy statement will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference half an hour later. With inflation slowing, that would allow interest rates to decline also. The last set of projections envisioned that the Fed's policy rate would fall by a percentage point in 2024, and by 1.2 percentage points in 2025 to end that year in the 3.25%-3.50% range. It hasn't happened so far, with economic growth through the first half of the year above the 1.8% rate that Fed officials view as the economy's non-inflationary trend, and continuing that way through the third quarter.

Persons: Matthew Luzzetti, Jerome Powell, Powell, Joseph Davis, Davis, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Commerce, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON

WASHINGTON, Sept 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday with officials widely expected to keep interest rates on hold for now, but also flagging in new economic projections whether they feel rates still need to rise further before the end of the year. A new policy statement and interest rate decision will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. to elaborate. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsIn June the Fed paused, but the quarterly economic projections accompanying that decision showed 12 of 18 policymakers still anticipated two more quarter-point rate increases by the end of the year. But how fast and when that occurs remains a matter of debate within the Fed and depends on how fast inflation falls. But it may mean rates stay higher for longer than the public currently expects.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Morgan, Michael Feroli, Feroli, Powell, Michael Gapen, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: synch

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMonth-to-month inflation numbers "will inevitably hop around," wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson, who sees underlying consumer inflation nevertheless slowing to a "benign" level of below 3% by early next year. Since their meeting in July, only two Fed policymakers have said they felt rates do not need to rise further, while others noted their outlook for slowing inflation was built around a slightly higher federal funds rate. Overall bank credit has been falling on a year-over-year basis since mid-July, evidence of financial firms tightening access either through higher rates or stricter standards. By and large Fed officials feel the economy can grow about 1.8% a year with inflation at the 2% target and assuming "appropriate monetary policy." The outlook has diminished prospects for a U.S. recession, but may well keep Fed concerns about high - or higher - inflation alive.

Persons: Jessica Rinaldi, Ian Shepherdson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Torsten Slok, Goldman Sachs, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Apollo Global Management, Lombard Chief U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: Flushing , New York, U.S

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