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The conflict with Hamas that began October 7 will have widespread financial implications for Israel. A top Israeli economist said a recession in Israel is likely, and Fitch put the country's credit rating on watch for downgrade. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Yet in less than two weeks, Israel's shekel has weakened about 4.8% to hit multi-year lows against the dollar. The Financial Times reported Tuesday that Bank of Israel deputy governor Andrew Abir said policymakers would prioritize stabilizing the currency over growth.
Persons: Fitch, , Joe Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Joseph Zeira, Zeira, Israel's shekel, Andrew Abir, Lee Hardman Organizations: Hamas, Service, Tel, Israel's Defense Forces, Hebrew University, CNBC, Bank of Israel, Traders, Deutsche Bank, Financial Times, MUFG Bank Locations: Israel, Palestinian, Tel Aviv, Gaza, Israeli, Iran
Donald Tusk, leader of the largest opposition grouping Civic Coalition (KO), speaks after the exit poll results are announced in Warsaw, Poland, October 15, 2023. The incumbent Law and Justice (PiS) party has repeatedly clashed with the European Union over the rule of law, media freedom, migration and LGBT rights since it swept to power in 2015. An Ipsos exit poll published early on Monday gave PiS 36.6% of the vote, which would translate into 198 lawmakers in the 460-seat lower house of parliament. On Monday, Duda urged patience until the full election results were known. However, with the far-right Confederation seen winning just 6.4%, below expectations, according to the exit poll, PiS will struggle to forge a new government.
Persons: Donald Tusk, Kacper, Donald Tusk's, Tusk, Lee Hardman, Andrzej Duda, Duda, PiS, Wladyslaw Kosiniak, Kamysz, beholden, Iga Frackiewicz, Lidia Kelly, Alan Charlish, Gareth Jones Organizations: Civic Coalition, REUTERS, EU, Justice, European Union, European, Polish Peasants ' Party, Thomson Locations: Warsaw, Poland, WARSAW, Brussels, Europe, Polish, Wrocław, Gdansk, Melbourne
Dollar eases from 10-month high but on track for weekly gain
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar index eased from a 10-month high on Thursday but remained on track for a weekly gain, and investors stayed on guard for potential intervention in the yen as it holds near 11-month lows against the U.S. currency. "The dollar in this environment is benefiting from both higher yields but also more jittery risk sentiment," said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX strategist at UBS in New York. "Global yields are rising, but with the U.S. economy outperforming the U.S. dollar still looks attractive." Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday that Japan would not rule out any options if there was any excessive volatility in currency moves, warning against speculative yen moves amid the currency's fall. The dollar was last down 0.27% against the Japanese currency at 149.23 yen, easing from an 11-month high of 149.71 on Wednesday.
Persons: Vassili Serebriakov, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Shunichi Suzuki Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, UBS, ., MUFG, Chicago Fed, Finance Locations: U.S, New York, Europe, Japan
Yet in Europe, sterling came under pressure after data showed Britain's high inflation rate fell unexpectedly in August, prompting speculation that the Bank of England could pause its historic run of interest rate hikes as soon as Thursday. Two-year Treasury yields were down 3.5 basis points in London trade at 5.07%, having risen sharply on Tuesday, when five- and 10-year Treasury yields reached 16-year highs. World stock markets were edging higher ahead of the Fed rate decision. UK gilt yields fell sharply as investors slashed bets for a rate hike on Thursday, with two-year yields last down over 14 bps at 4.85% . "Combined with their recent dovish commentary, we now expect the MPC to keep Bank Rate unchanged tomorrow and lower our forecast for the terminal policy rate to 5.25%," Stehn and co. added.
Persons: DAX, Kai Pfaffenbach, Jerome Powell, Lee Hardman, Sterling underperformed, Goldman Sachs, Sven Jari Stehn, Stehn, Masato Kanda, Eugene Low, Dhara Ranasinghe, Samuel Indyk, Tom Westbrook, Toby Chopra, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Brent, Federal, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, MPC, Monetary, Bank of, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, London, Sweden, Switzerland, Norway, Britain, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, China, Singapore
Euro gains, yen struggles in central bank-packed week
  + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A Reuters report on Monday citing six sources said the debate over the multi-trillion-euro pool of excess liquidity sloshing around banks was likely to start next month. However, this might not be enough to give the euro a more sustained boost, according to Lee Hardman, a strategist at MUFG. "While the ECB’s reported plans to tighten excess liquidity in the euro area have helped to support the euro, they are unlikely to be sufficient on their own to turn the current weakening trend," he said. This week brings a raft of central bank meetings, including those of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank, among others, which kept currency volatility on the subdued side. In other currencies, sterling edged up 0.1% at $1.2398, ahead of an interest rate decision from the BoE on Thursday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lee Hardman, Kazuo Ueda, Rodrigo Catril, Erik Weisman, BoE, Rae Wee, Lincoln, Peter Graff, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, National Australia Bank, NAB, U.S, Fed, MFS Investment Management, Thomson Locations: U.S
CFTC data show that funds and speculators are holding a chunky net short yen position worth around $8.2 billion. Contrast that with the euro position, and it is not difficult to envisage a potential narrowing of the gulf in the weeks and months ahead. Citi's U.S. economic surprises index has been positive since May and the euro zone index has been in negative territory since May. Euro zone interest rate traders reckon the ECB is done raising rates, and are now betting on around 70 bps of rate cuts next year. "Today's ECB policy update and stronger U.S. data for Q3 is further encouraging those expectations placing downward pressure on EUR/USD," MUFG's Lee Hardman wrote on Thursday.
Persons: Pedro Nunes, gunning, MUFG's Lee Hardman, Jamie McGeever, David Evans Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, Central, ECB, U.S, HSBC, Futures, CFTC, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bank of Portugal, Carregado, Alenquer, Portugal, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S
Backed by a strong economy and rising U.S. Treasury yields, some of the highest among developed economies, the dollar despite bouts of weakness has stayed resilient against most major currencies. That strong performance has brought the long-held view of a weaker dollar in the short to medium term under review. A solid 81% majority of analysts, 43 of 53, who answered an additional question said the risk to their dollar outlook was to the upside, the Sept. 1-6 Reuters poll showed. Elsewhere, other Asian currencies stand to face significant friction in recouping losses for the year, according to the poll. Almost all were forecast to at best stay within a range or trade modestly higher against the dollar in coming months.
Persons: Jane Foley, Lee Hardman, pare, Sterling, Sarupya Ganguly, Sujith Pai, Devayani, Pranoy, Hari Kishan, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Treasury, . Federal, Rabobank, Argentine, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, America, Brazilian
The Japanese yen also gained, after earlier falling to a 10-month low. The dollar briefly reached an almost 10-month high against the Japanese yen earlier on Tuesday, before dropping on the jobs data. The Bank of Japan remains an outlier among global central banks with its loose monetary policy, even as it slowly shifts away from yield curve control. “It is moving away from excessively loose monetary policy, but it’s doing so at a very slow and measured pace,” Rai said. Japan intervened in currency markets last September when the dollar rose past 145 yen, prompting the Ministry of Finance to buy the yen and push the pair back to around 140 yen.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Bipan Rai, ” Rai, “ It’s, Charu, Kazuo Ueda, Lee Hardman, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Action Economics, Federal Reserve, CIBC Capital Markets, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Saxo, Jackson, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: North American, Toronto, U.S, Japan, London
U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration taken January 30, 2023. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, with benchmark 10-year yields hitting 16-year highs on Tuesday, and unease over China have boosted the dollar this month. "What we're seeing is a bit of a pause," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index, in London. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major counterparts, was a touch softer at 103.30, holding below Friday's 10-week highs at 103.68. The Australian dollar was 0.4% firmer at $0.6441 as global risk appetite recovered.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Bond, Powell, Jackson, Fiona Cincotta, We've, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Sterling, Lee Hardman, Dhara Ranasinghe, Kevin Buckland, Angus MacSwan, Bernadette Baum Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, City Index, Bank of Japan, Federal, Thomson Locations: China, London, , Wyoming, U.S, Toyko
Human Rights Watch/Handout via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsDUBAI/HARAR, Ethiopia, Aug 21 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabian border guards have killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants, including women and children, who attempted enter the kingdom along its mountainous border with Yemen, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said on Monday. In a 73-page report, the rights group said Saudi guards used explosive weapons to kill some migrants and shot at others from close range. Saudi authorities have also strongly denied allegations made by U.N. officials in 2022 that border guards systematically killed migrants last year. HRW said it based its report on witness testimony as well as 350 videos and photos of wounded and killed migrants, and satellite imagery showing the location of Saudi Arabian guard posts. A letter issued by the kingdom's U.N. mission in March 2023 rejected the allegation, saying that Saudi border security regulations "ensure humane treatment...no form of mistreatment or torture is tolerated."
Persons: U.N, Nadia Hardman, Hardman, Mustafa Sofian Mohammed, Mustafa, Sofian Mohammed Abdulla, Mustafa's, Stephane Dujarric, Andrew Mills, Emma Farge, Daphne Psaledakis, Dawit, Daniel Flynn Organizations: Human Rights, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Rights Watch, Saudi, Ethiopian, Reuters, State Department, Al, Al Thawra Hospital, International Organization for Migration, Hallelujah, HRW, Rehabilitation, Torture, UN Human Rights, Gulf Bureau, Tiksa, Milan Pavicic, Thomson Locations: Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Rights DUBAI, HARAR, Saudi Arabian, Saudi, Addis Ababa, U.S, Tigray, Horn of Africa, Aden, Ethiopian, Harar, Al Thawra, Sanaa, Addis, New York, Gulf, Tiksa Negeri, Milan, Gdansk, Geneva, Washington
A jump in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons also suggested a weaker labor market, but the pace of job growth remains strong and with inflation still double the Fed's target rate, a rate hike this month is likely. "The Fed is being hawkish and that prevents the dollar from depreciating too much. After the jobs data, futures pointed to an 88.8% probability that the Fed hikes in three weeks. Adding a tailwind to the rally in the yen was some position-squaring among speculators, who have built up sizeable bearish positions, Hardman said. The Australian dollar rose 0.8% to $0.6681, but it is still battered by weak Chinese economic data and broad risk aversion.
Persons: Joe Manimbo, We're, Thierry Wizman, They've, Lee Hardman, Hardman, YEN, Herbert Lash, Amanda Cooper, Rae Wee, Sam Holmes, Mark Potter, Barbara Lewis, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Federal Reserves, Labor Department, Treasury, ECB, Strong U.S, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: U.S, Japan, New York, London, Singapore
How should slavery and its legacy be taught in U.S. schools?
  + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +21 min
My father said it was indeed a general store, supplying everything from hog feed to eggs to coal for heating. On the map, I believe General’s Store is the building at the bottom and labeled S for store. Black people appeared chiefly in sketches aimed at amusing readers – or when they were accused of crimes against whites. The letter writer said a young white man in a general store had ordered the woman to put down a can of oil she was examining. I could find nothing that accounted for the death of General Bryson, let alone any item that mentioned the Bryson family.
Persons: General Bryson, General, G.G, Bryson, George T, Williamson, Bryson’s, Lucille Newton Duke, Boots ”, Barbara Newton, Bud Moon, Jim Smith, Smith, Sheriff Culberson, Moon, , Martin Luther King Jr, Ancestry.com, Jim Crow’s, Margaret Burnham, Burnham, , , ” Burnham, Isaac Gaston, Gaston –, General Bryson –, Walter White, weren’t, Patricia, Julia, I’d, LaBrenda Garrett, Nelson, Thomas Colquitt Hardman, Lamartine Hardman, Hardman, – Hardman, Harry Bryson, Harry, wasn’t, Uzell Mathis, Black, you’d, Terrie Epstein, Epstein, Chara Haeussler Bohan, Alexander Stephens, Mildred Rutherford, Bohan, ” Bohan, ” Chara Haeussler, Ron DeSantis, David Walker, DeSantis, ’ ” Bohan, Jim Crow, Carol Swain, Swain, ” Swain, Booker T, Washington . Organizations: Commerce, Herald, Calvary Baptist Church, Sanborn, Company, Library of Congress, Hurricane, Reuters, Civil, Northeastern University, National Association for, Advancement of Colored, NAACP, New York Times, Jackson County Herald, Arlington National Cemetery, Quartermaster Corps, Harmony, Black Commerce, New, Hunter College, Blacks, Georgia State University, Confederacy, Southern Poverty Law, Union, American AP, Republican, Yale, Harvard Law School, state’s Department of Education, , demonize, Washington, Tuskegee University Locations: Jackson, Mt, Calvary, Hurricane, Hurricane Grove, Jefferson, Winder, Maxey’s, Donalsonville , Georgia, Donalsonville, Commerce, Georgia, Atlanta, Jackson County, United States, Brest, France, Arlington, Harmony Grove, Commerce Jackson County Georgia, Black, Grove, Michigan, Confederate States, America, Southern, South Carolina, Mississippi, Texas, Florida, demonize America, Virginia, Washington
REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonSINGAPORE/LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - The yen was under pressure against most other major currencies on Wednesday, even as Japanese authorities said they could intervene to prop it up, while the Australian dollar dropped after data showed inflation eased in May. The U.S. dollar rose to 144.26 yen on Wednesday, a fresh seven-month high, while the euro climbed to a 15-year high of 157.98 yen. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell to a three-week low of $0.6618 after the local consumer price inflation rate slowed to a 13-month low in May. It was last down 0.78% at $0.6634, and the neighbouring New Zealand dollar fell 1.17% to $0.6090, its biggest daily fall in a month. A measure of core inflation in Australia also cooled, in a sign interest rates might not have to rise again in July.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Masato Kanda, Lee Hardman, Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jamie Freed, Emelia Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Hoon, U.S, MUFG, New Zealand, Traders, Bank's, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Hoon SINGAPORE, LONDON, Australia, Europe, U.S, Singapore
With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.
Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia
Dollar backs down as traders price in a Fed skip
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
In April, the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) logged its smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 at 4.0%. It's quite a high hurdle for (the Fed) to deliver a hawkish surprise tonight through rhetoric alone," MUFG strategist Lee Hardman said. Unsurprisingly, the dollar has lost the most so far this month against the Australian dollar , which has gained 4.3%, followed by the Canadian dollar , which has risen by 2%. The European Central Bank (ECB) delivers its decision on rates on Thursday, with a quarter-point hike to 3.50% widely expected. Its policymakers have been clear that inflation across the euro zone is too high and the central bank has more work to do.
Persons: Lee Hardman, Francesco Pesole, Sterling, Kevin Buckland, Kim Coghill, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Canadian, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, ING, The Bank of, People's Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, The Bank of Japan, Tokyo
[1/5] Britain's Camilla, Queen Consort attends a Garden Party, in celebration of King Charles' coronation, at Buckingham Palace, London, Britain. When Charles' divorced first wife, the popular, glamorous Princess Diana, died in a car crash in Paris in 1997, Camilla bore the brunt of media hostility. That's the strength of love," Camilla told Charles in the secretly recorded telephone conversation publicised in 1993. From being able to appear in public together, to marriage and last year's approval from Queen Elizabeth to Camilla taking the title Queen Consort, their success is complete. Other surveys have also indicated only a minority thought she should be Queen Camilla.
LONDON, May 1 (Reuters) - After waiting longer than any British heir to become monarch, King Charles has quietly settled into his new role with little of the drama some commentators had expected, but with family divisions and some fundamental issues still looming. "I think we are all quite surprised at how well King Charles has begun," royal author Tina Brown told Reuters. Charles does not enjoy same support as his widely admired mother, but his public approval ratings are generally positive. For Charles, the most prominent issue remains the ongoing conflict with his younger son Prince Harry. "I think the public are thinking we've kind of heard all that, but normal life continues."
The euro rose 0.8% against the crown to 11.401, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. The dollar, which traded down 0.7% against the crown before the Riksbank's decision, was up 0.4% at 10.347. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.1019 and the pound rose 0.38% $1.2457 both rebounding from slightly larger falls a day earlier. However, "the broader spillover impact looks limited - other regional bank shares have held up better - and the market sees it as an isolated incident. The dollar slid 0.2% against the yen to 133.45.
While many other European monarchies have come and gone, or are far diminished in scale and importance, the British royal family has remained remarkably resilient. Republic, a group that wants to abolish the monarchy, has pointed to a poll which showed a majority of people were not interested in the coronation. RELEVANCE"Relevance is absolutely crucial to the monarchy," said Robert Hardman, a long-time royal correspondent and author of 'Queen of our Times'. But, in return, the royals are considered public property with an expectation that they play the press "game" in return for gilded lives in palaces. "Monarchs and their families need the media just as the media need them," Harshan Kumarasingham, senior lecturer in British politics at the University of Edinburgh.
Median forecasts in the March 31-April 4 poll of 90 foreign exchange strategists showed the dollar ceding ground to all major currencies in a year. "Our take on the dollar is that we continue to look for further weakness over the next three to six months. With the dollar's expected retreat, the European single currency is finding its spot in the sun after briefly crossing below parity on lagging rate expectations in 2022. The safe-haven currency, which hit 32-year lows in 2022 again on rate differentials, was forecast to recoup that loss over the forecast horizon. Indeed, the 12-month median view for nearly all of the major currencies surveyed was identical with the March poll.
SINGAPORE/LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held steady on Tuesday ahead of testimony before Congress by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Aussie slid after the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted it might nearly be done with monetary tightening. Elsewhere, the euro, sterling and yen were all broadly steady with the common currency at $1.0671 , the pound at $1.20245 , and one dollar worth 135.7 yen . That meant U.S. dollar index , which measures the unit against six major rivals, was also flat at 104.3, having slipped 0.26% a day earlier. "If (he) remains cautious ... that could trigger the dollar index to fall further below the 105.00-level ahead of the release of the NFP report on Friday." Investors are also awaiting the final policy meeting for Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Thursday and Friday, when the central bank is set to stick to its ultra-loose monetary path.
While analysts have been predicting a weaker dollar 12 months out for over five years, their predictions only came true in 2020 when the currency weakened more than 6.5%. There was also no clear consensus among analysts in the poll over dollar positioning, which turned net short dollar last November. Among the remaining 18, a dozen forecast a reversal to net long positions and six predicted an increase in net short positions. Even the British pound , which dropped more than 10% last year, was expected to claw back around half of those losses in 12 months. Sterling was predicted to rise from its latest level of $1.19 to $1.22, $1.23 and $1.26 in the next three, six and 12 months, respectively.
This meant the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell as low as 101.5, its lowest since the end of May. Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes. The Canadian dollar traded at 1.3387 per U.S. dollar, after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised its key interest rate to 4.5% but became the first major central bank fighting global inflation to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. He said the pullback in Fed rate hike expectations following the BoC’s policy decision had triggered a US dollar sell-off alongside Canadian dollar weakness, which "highlights that the US dollar remains vulnerable to a further dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations." Reporting by Rae Wee and Alun John; Editing by Bradley Perrett and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Hardman does research on microplastics — tiny pieces of plastic debris that are broken down from larger plastic items. Microplastics are often too small to pick up or even notice, but they are everywhere: in the air, dust, and rain. Laura HardmanPlastic is a relatively new pollutant, so there's still a lot we don't know about it. In the lab, my team of researchers and I focus on the sources, effects, and fate of plastics in the ocean. The simple answer is we don't know what plastics might be doing to us, but I've started to get really concerned.
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.
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