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☆ Soft Landing Optimism Is Everywhere. That’s Happened Before.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | More About Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation has begun to cool meaningfully, but unemployment remains historically low at 3.6 percent and hiring has been robust. Consumers continue to spend at a solid pace and are helping to boost overall growth, based on strong gross domestic product data released on Thursday. Mr. Powell said that while he was not yet ready to use the term “optimism,” he saw a possible pathway to a relatively painless slowdown. Those rate moves are trickling through the economy, making it more expensive to buy cars and houses on borrowed money and making it pricier for businesses to take out loans. “The prevailing consensus right before things went downhill in 2007, 2000 and 1990 was for a soft landing,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a rates strategist at TD Securities.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg Organizations: TD Securities, “ Locations: Washington

☆ Fed raises interest rates, leaves door open to another increase - Reuters News
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

The rate hike, the Fed's 11th in its last 12 meetings, set the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range, and the accompanying policy statement left the door open to another increase. The Fed raised (the Fed funds target rate) by a quarter point and the vote was unanimous, and the move puts rates at a 22-year high." "We think recent data is consistent with the US policy rate peaking in July, as core CPI inflation slowed sharply in June. "Fed Chair Powell is going to suggest that for the time being that they need to assess more information for inflation. "Markets are for the most part becoming more confident the Fed won't have to raise rates in September.

Persons: GENNADIY GOLDBERG, J Powell, they've, They're, Powell, we've, ELLEN HAZEN, ” MICHAEL BROWN, JACK ABLIN, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, ” PETER CARDILLO, Jackson, GURPREET GILL, GOLDMAN, QUINCY KROSBY, ” EDWARD MOYA, We'll, we'll Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, U.S, Treasury, Fed, Dow, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, WELLESLEY , MASSACHUSETTS, PALM BEACH , FLORIDA, WISCONSIN, GOLDMAN SACHS, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA

The U.S. Treasury started rebuilding its account through T-bills after the government's debt ceiling was suspended last month. Since early June, the Treasury General Account at the Fed has increased by about $460 billion. "The risk of reserve scarcity in the near-term has receded as more cash has left the RRP facility," said Gennadiy Goldberg, Head of US Rates Strategy at TD Securities USA. "However, money market funds shifted their allocation out of the RRP facility into outright purchases of T-bills and private repo markets," they said. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Dan Burns and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Gennadiy Goldberg, Davide Barbuscia, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: YORK, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Federal, Securities USA, Citi, repo, ON, Thomson Locations: U.S

While there has been some scrambling to amend contracts linked to Libor over the past month, the transition was well telegraphed and no major issues are expected, loan and derivatives market participants and lawyers said in interviews. "I feel like it has been two to three years now that we have been re-papering all the legacy loans and legacy securities we purchased tied to Libor," said Scott DiMaggio, co-head of fixed income, at Alliance Bernstein. Friday at 11:55 a.m. British Summer Time (1055 GMT) marked the last publication for the 1-month, 3-month and 6-month U.S.-dollar Libor interest rates. Other U.S. dollar tenors were largely phased out for new contracts at the end of 2021 along with Libor rates linked to other currencies. Derivatives markets based on Libor had already mostly moved to new benchmarks without major disruption, while some corners of the loan markets, such as syndicated loans, have been busy with contract amendments, market participants said.

Persons: Scott DiMaggio, Alliance Bernstein, Shah, Federal Reserve Bank of New York's, Libor, Tal Reback, Gennadiy Goldberg, John McCrank, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfus, Alden Bentley, Stephen Coates Organizations: YORK, Alliance, Regulators, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S, Britain's, Authority, Libor, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: London, Iran, U.S, New York

☆ Russia back in investors' focus after weekend mutiny
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Financial markets have often been volatile since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which caused ruptures in markets and through global finance as banks and investors rushed to unwind exposure. After Saturday's events, some investors said they were focused on the potential impact to safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and on commodities prices, as Russia is a major energy supplier. Goldberg said that despite the de-escalation, "investors may remain nervous about subsequent instability, and could remain cautious." “Markets typically do not respond well to events that are unfolding and are uncertain,” particularly relating to Putin and Russia, said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. Year-to-date the S&P 500 (.SPX) is up 13%, although it has lost steam in recent days with interest rates in focus.

Persons: Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Putin, Quincy Krosby, ” Krosby, Alastair Winter, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Rich Steinberg, Lananh Nguyen, Sinead Cruise, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Financial, TD Securities, LPL, Global Investment, U.S, Federal, Colony Group, Thomson Locations: Russia, Russian, Moscow, Rostov, Ukraine, New York, Washington, Argyll Europe, Boca Raton , Florida

☆ Still-hawkish Fed pauses rate tightening after 10 straight hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +13 min

While the market expected a hawkish pause, this is even a little bit more hawkish than market participants anticipated and that’s why you’re having a negative reaction in risk assets. So, it does suggest that the Fed is looking to tighten policy further, but the big question is can the Fed credibly commit to two more rate hikes if they just decided to actually hold rates steady. And what is the threshold for further rate hikes? “GEORGE YOUNG, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, VILLERE & CO, NEW ORLEANS"This a pregnant pause, meaning that they said they're going to pause hikes today but they're going to increase later. ANGELO KOURKAFAS, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, EDWARD JONES, ST LOUIS"We're seeing a more hawkish pause.

Persons: QUINCY KROSBY, Powell, He’s, BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, ” ANDRZEJ SKIBA, ” GENNADIY GOLDBERG, they’ve, ” ELLEN HAZEN, Logan, Waller, “ GEORGE, ANGELO KOURKAFAS, EDWARD JONES, They've, MICHAEL BROWN, hawkishly, WHITNEY WATSON, GOLDMAN, “, STOVALL, ” PAUL NOLTE, MICHAEL JAMES Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Federal, U.S, RBC, CPI, PPI, Powell &, Cleveland Fed, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, CHARLOTTE, NC, WISCONSIN, WELLESLEY , MASSACHUSETTS, ORLEANS, GOLDMAN SACHS, Manheim, ALLENTOWN, CHICAGO

☆ Foreign buying of US Treasuries in March hits largest since June 2021 -data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

There were lots of buying by China, lots of buying by Japan. Japan, however, had been selling Treasuries for most of 2022 to help boost a weak yen. China had been selling Treasuries as well, like Japan for most of last year. U.S. residents, meanwhile, increased their holdings of long-term foreign securities, with net purchases of $22.8 billion, compared with net selling of $8.3 billion in February. Overall, net foreign purchases of long-term securities are estimated to have been $133.3 billion in March, up sharply from February's inflows of $56.6 billion, data showed.

☆ Wonks ‘Socialize’ Differently
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Before American central bankers make policy changes — as they did on Wednesday, when they raised interest rates for the 10th consecutive time — they often publicly hint at them in a process known as “socializing.”It is “the act of introducing markets to a concept gradually,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities, with the goal of giving markets the chance to adjust to coming changes. The Fed hasn’t always foreshadowed its decisions. As recently as the 1990s, the central bank didn’t even announce its rate moves: Traders watched markets for signs that the Fed was guiding interest rates higher to slow the economy, or lower to speed it up.

The current situation could not be further removed from the last time debt ceiling episodes really spooked markets in 2011 and 2013. The Fed is expected to raise rates again in May and could still even tighten again in June if policymakers think inflation and growth data warrant it. "Some people may be building some debt ceiling risks into their monetary policy expectations," said Benson Durham, head of global policy at Piper Sandler. "The debt ceiling and monetary policy are going to be more intertwined in the coming months." chartThe debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations.

Earnings per share for the six biggest U.S. banks are expected to be down about 10% from a year earlier, analyst estimates from Refinitiv I/B/E/S show. The bank is expected to report a 30% rise in EPS, buoyed by an almost 36% increase in net interest income, according the Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates and Reuters calculations. "We expect a challenging earnings season for the banks," said David Chiaverini, banking analyst at Wedbush Securities, in a note. He said bank managements will become more defensive, implementing liquidity measures that could lead to downward revisions for net interest income. Net interest income for the six biggest U.S. banks are expected to be up about 30% from a year earlier, according to analyst estimates from Refinitiv I/B/E/S.

☆ Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasurys increase for 2nd month in December, data shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasurys held by foreigners increased for a second consecutive month in December, data from the U.S. Treasury Department showed on Wednesday, as yields started to decline from their peaks, becoming more attractive to offshore investors. Foreign holdings rose $7.314 trillion in December, up from $7.268 trillion in the previous month. Treasury holdings in December, however, were 5.5% lower from the December 2021 level of $7.740 trillion. "It's encouraging that foreign investors were starting to dip their toes in U.S. Treasury debt at the end of the year. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield started the month December at 3.527% and ended the month at 3.835%.

☆ The Fed's credibility is still on the line
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Julia Horowitz | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The difference — known as the breakeven rate — tells you how much inflation investors foresee. The five-year breakeven rate stands at 2.48%, down significantly from a high of 3.59% in March and not far off from the Fed's 2% target. The 10-year breakeven inflation rate sits at 2.4%. The Fed makes its latest policy announcement at 2 p.m. Coming tomorrow: The latest policy decisions from the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank.

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