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☆ Don't let September's jobs report fool you — the labor market is still deteriorating at a worrying rate, economists warn
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Small businesses also face tight credit conditions and are slowing hiring. AdvertisementThe September payrolls report seemed to switch the investor narrative around the labor market on a dime. Given the usual lags involved between changes in rates and activity, things will probably get worse for small businesses before they get better." "The labor market is not out of the woods just yet, and I continue to see another hiccup in the jobs market before year-end," Dutta wrote. AdvertisementStill, it's unclear how much pressure the labor market will come under in the months ahead.

Persons: —, bearish David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Neil Dutta, Dutta Organizations: Service, Fed, September's, Rosenberg Research, Pantheon, Macro Research, The Conference Board

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average powered to new highs on Friday and capped off a winning week as banking behemoths ushered in a promising start to the third-quarter earnings season. The broad index gained 0.6% to end at 5,815.03, while the Dow rallied 409.74 points, or nearly 1%, to finish at 42,863.86. The S&P and Nasdaq jumped 1.1% each, while the Dow toted a 1.2% gain. A strong start to the third-quarter earnings season provided a lift to stocks. That included a cooler-than-expected September producer price index reading after the consumer price index increased slightly more than expected.

Persons: —, ”, Craig Sterling, JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Kim Forrest, Forrest, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, David Russell, “ Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Bokeh Capital Partners, “, Federal, Federal Reserve

☆ European markets set for higher open as investors brace for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are heading for a positive open Thursday as investors await the latest U.S. inflation data for more signs that price pressures are easing. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.1% increase on a monthly basis, and a 2.3% advance over the prior 12 months. The result will also inform the Federal Reserve's next steps on policy at its November meeting. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a roughly 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night, while Asia-Pacific markets opened mostly higher on Thursday, buoyed by gains on Wall Street on Wednesday.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Locations: Asia, Pacific

☆ Why investors shouldn’t sweat this inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The latest inflation report came in slightly hotter than expected, knocking stock prices lower. But the odds of a quarter-point Fed rate cut in November actually rose after the report came out. "CPI Inflation data was slightly on the hotter side, with commodity prices (outside) energy rising more than expected. The good news is that shelter inflation is pulling back and that's going to pull inflation lower. Investors received fresh labor market data Thursday as well, with initial jobless claims jumping by 33,000 to 258,000.

Persons: Dow Jones, Sonu Varghese, Goldman Sachs, Whitney Watson, Ian Lyngen, Stephen Tusa Organizations: CPI, Reserve, Carson, Investors, BMO Capital Markets, JPMorgan, Honeywell

☆ Expect a 3-handle on the Fed funds rate by the middle of next year, says Wharton's Jeremy Siegel
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a 3-handle on the Fed funds rate by the middle of next year, says Wharton's Jeremy SiegelJeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business and Wisdom Tree chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, what to expect from the September CPI data, impact on the Fed's inflation fight, and more.

Persons: Wharton's Jeremy Siegel Jeremy Siegel Organizations: University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business

☆ Stock futures are flat as traders await another inflation reading, big bank earnings: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading on January 11, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures were little changed on Thursday evening, as investors looked ahead to a wholesale inflation reading and quarterly results from major banks. Futures tied to the S&P 500 inched higher by 0.08%, while Nasdaq 100 futures hovered just below the flatline. September's consumer price index rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% from a year earlier. The S&P 500 is up 0.5% week to date, while the Dow is toting a 0.2% gain.

Persons: Dow Jones, Preston Caldwell, Wells Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Futures, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, Morningstar, JPMorgan Chase Locations: New York City

☆ Stock futures are little changed as September consumer inflation report looms: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading in New York City. U.S. stock futures were little changed Wednesday night as investors looked ahead to the release of September's consumer price index report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near the flatline. Fed funds futures trading data suggests a roughly 70% likelihood of a quarter-point cut, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Economists polled by Dow Jones see core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rising by 0.2%.

Persons: Dow, Dow Jones, Stephanie Roth Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Wolfe Research, Delta Air Lines Locations: New York City . U.S

☆ Fed officials were divided on whether to cut rates by half a point in September, minutes show
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization." Since the meeting, economic indicators have showed that the labor market is perhaps stronger than officials favoring the 50 basis point move had expected. The minutes noted that the vote to approve the 50 basis point cut came "in light of the progress on inflation and the balance of risks" against the labor market. Though the document was more detailed about the debate over whether to approve the 25 basis point cut, there was not as much information about why voters supported the larger move. Since the Fed meeting, both the 10- and 2-year Treasury yields have surged about 40 basis points.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Market, Treasury Locations: WASHINGTON

☆ Rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fed easing hasn't led to lower mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate actually rising since the first rate cut. Mortgage rates are closely linked to the 10-year US Treasury yield, which have also risen over the period. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's jumbo interest-rate cut in mid-September was welcome news to prospective homebuyers, with the expectation that a lower fed funds rate would help push mortgage rates lower. According to data from Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has jumped about 47 basis points since the Fed rate cut, to 6.62% from 6.15%. Whether that will manifest itself in lower mortgage rates is up in the air.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Sonu Varghese, it's Organizations: Treasury, Service, Mortgage News, Carson, CME

☆ Fed cuts could turn the tide for commercial real estate. Where to find opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may help turn the tide for commercial real estate. "Lower interest rates are not a magic bullet, but less restrictive monetary policy lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," wrote senior economist Charlie Dougherty. "Decreased long-term interest rates appear to be easing upward pressure on cap rates and slowing declines in property valuations. "That said, reduced interest rates should prevent distress from spreading and shorten the hurdles coming down the road," he added. Gimple specifically likes single-asset, single-borrower CMBS and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Charlie Dougherty, Dougherty, Douglas Gimple, Gimple, It's, that's Organizations: Treasury, Companies, Fed Locations: Central, Diamond, Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Hawaii

☆ Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Stock market today: Dow notches record high after strong jobs report eases slowdown worries
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks rose 1% and the Dow hit a record as the jobs report alleviated slowdown worries. AdvertisementUS stocks surged about 1% on Friday after the September jobs report soothed fears of an economic slowdown. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a 50-basis point cut dropped to 0% from 53% last week. Consensus now expects two 25-basis point rate cuts from the Fed at their next two FOMC meetings before year-end. ING's chief economist, James Knightley, said the jobs report was "unambiguously strong."

Persons: —, Dow, Sonu Varghese, Jeffrey Roach, James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Dow, Service, Federal, Fed, Financial Locations: Here's

☆ Active bond funds put up a strong performance — and they may be poised to stand out as rates fall
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Over the 12-month period ending June, about 2 of 3 active bond managers trounced their average passive counterpart, according to a recent analysis from Morningstar . There were a few tailwinds in active managers' favor. With the Fed recently cutting rates by a half point — and Chair Jerome Powell noting that two more quarter-point cuts could be in the cards this year — a new challenge awaits these active bond funds. As interest rates fall, active managers can position accordingly, said Roger Hallam, global head of rates at Vanguard. "We expect active managers to make a little more, and they should be because they're doing more trades and it costs more to manage active portfolios," said Olmsted.

Persons: —, Ryan Jackson, Jerome Powell, it's, Jackson, Paul Olmsted, Roger Hallam, wouldn't, Hallam, Morningstar, Olmsted Organizations: Federal Reserve, Morningstar, Vanguard, Bond Fund, SEC

☆ Here's how to position your fixed income portfolio for lower rates, according to strategists
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Over time, riskier assets have outperformed cash and cash alternatives, said Brian Rehling, its head of global fixed income strategy. Different types of fixed income Investors can benefit from different types of fixed income in their portfolios, Citi said. But since then, both stocks and high-yield fixed income have increased in price. "Investors should consider taking advantage of any pullbacks in these asset classes to reposition overallocations to short-term fixed income," it said. Meanwhile, it likes U.S. intermediate term taxable fixed income, as it prefers bonds with maturities of between three and seven years.

Persons: Steven Wieting, Brian Rehling, Wells Fargo, overallocations Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Citi, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Securities . Investment Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells

☆ Yields on cash are cooling. Here are a few alternatives for your short-term dollars
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

It's only been two weeks since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years, but investors are already getting paid less to park their extra cash. Central bank policymakers trimmed a half point from the fed funds rate in September, bringing it down to a range of 4.75% to 5%. That means that the days of 5% yields on idle cash are largely in the past, at least for the current cycle. Lock in with ladders Three key considerations for investors holding cash would be liquidity, yield and risk. For clients who want ready access to their cash, a high-yield savings account could be a solid bet, Sergunina said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Arvind Narayanan, Anna Sergunina, Sergunina, Narayanan, Amy Arnott, isn't Organizations: Federal Reserve, Vanguard, Main, Financial, ., Federal Deposit Insurance, Morningstar, Bond, SEC Locations: Central, Los Gatos, Calif

☆ A 'Roaring '20s' economy is becoming more likely as bullish factors stack up, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS predicts a "Roaring '20s" economy, assigning a 50% chance to such an expansion by 2030. Solid data revisions, along with Fed rate cuts, support the optimistic outlook. "It's no longer too soon nor too optimistic to suggest that the US will experience a Roaring '20s economy," UBS said. AdvertisementA slew of bullish factors suggest the economy could be headed towards "Roaring '20s" status, according to a Monday note from UBS. Advertisement"The bread crumbs suggest a policy reaction function that is directionally supportive of a Roaring '20s outcome," Draho said of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's full employment goals.

Persons: —, UBS's, Jason Draho, Draho, Jerome Powell's Organizations: UBS, Service, Treasury, Atlanta, CPI

☆ Bull market enters fourth quarter with just about everything going its way
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Then there's the upside progress made in the third quarter without the leadership of super-cap tech – the equal-weighted S & P 500 is up nearly 9% since June 30 and the Nasdaq 100 up less than 2%. Goldman Sachs here plots the S & P 500 forward P/E at the time of each initial rate cut in a cycle. For sure, a breather would make sense for the broad market, with the S & P 500 up 11 of the past 15 days. In either case, it's a notable deviation from the story of placid strength being told by the S & P 500 itself. The median Wall Street strategist target for the S & P 500 is now well below the current index level, usually not something one sees at an ultimate market peak.

Persons: Scott Chronert, isn't, Goldman Sachs, it's, John Kolovos, Bitcoin's Organizations: Nasdaq, Citi, Fed Locations: China

☆ Brokerages slash yields on cash, but some still offer upward of 4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Brokerages have also jumped in on the action, with several companies dropping the rates they pay on sums held in cash sweep accounts. Charles Schwab recently trimmed its cash sweep rate to 20 basis points, where it was previously 45 basis points, according to an analysis by Bank of America. Wells Fargo also dropped rates by 3 basis points to 30 basis points, based on the level of clients' household assets. A few outliers still pay solid rates on idle cash Brokerages take different approaches toward cash sweeps, with some firms opting to keep rates low even when the Fed was hiking rates. Even as yields are expected to continue falling, a couple of brokerages continue to offer competitive rates, Bank of America found.

Persons: Marcus, Goldman Sachs, Wells, Michael Kaye, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo, Robinhood, Ryan Salah, We've Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Discover Financial, Bank of America, Wells, Advisors, Interactive, Robinhood, Capital Financial Partners Locations: Wells Fargo, Towson , Maryland

☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What’s going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +6 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.

Persons: hasn’t, ”, Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, “, Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management

☆ The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What's going on?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Treasury market, though, hasn't been paying attention. Watching the curveThe difference between the 10- and 2-year notes has widened significantly, increasing by about 12 basis points since the Fed meeting. That sentiment is evident in the "breakeven" inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. watch nowFed officials aim for a 2% inflation rate, and none of the principal gauges are there yet.

Persons: Anna Moneymaker, hasn't, Jonathan Duensing, — haven't, Robert Tipp Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Why a jump in economic growth could be the stock market's nightmare scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.

Persons: Steven Blitz, —, Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve

☆ Stocks and bonds are at odds on what happens next after Fed rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For the third quarter, the S & P 500 has popped 4.7%, while the Dow is higher by 7.7%. "The bond market has the fed funds rate being cut below 3% in 2025," Johnston, the firm's head of derivatives and cross asset strategy, wrote in a note Monday. On Monday, S & P Global said its U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to a 15-month low in September — while its services sector gauge showed expansion. He likes put spreads on the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) expiring Oct. 31. If history is any guide, it'll most likely be the bond market.

Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald's Eric Johnston, Johnston Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Dow, P Global, Trust Locations: —

☆ Stock market today: Dow ends at a record high as markets see rising odds of another big rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks rose Monday, with the Dow closing at a record high amid hopes for more rate cuts. Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting increased to 53%, up from 29% last week. AdvertisementUS stocks gained on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 closing at record highs as hopes of more Fed interest rate cuts ramped up. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets expect the Fed funds rate to fall to below 3% by the end of 2025, from 4.83% on Monday. That lines up with Kashkari's projection for the long-term Fed funds rate to sit at around 2.9%.

Persons: —, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Goolsbee, Kashkari Organizations: Dow, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed Locations: Chicago

☆ Stock futures are flat after Dow closes at a fresh record: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on Sept. 23, 2024. U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted new record closes. Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow slipped 38 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.11%. Earlier in the day, the S&P 500 rose 0.28% and the Dow added 0.15%, resulting in closing records for both indexes.

Persons: Dow, Paul Hickey, There's, You've, Hickey, Quincy Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Investment, LPL, Traders, Conference, Richmond Fed Locations: Quincy, mull

☆ Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari sees a slower pace of rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday that he expects policymakers to dial down the pace of interest rate cuts after last week's half percentage point reduction. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "Right now, we still have a strong, healthy labor market. In their latest economic projections, FOMC members indicated that rate is probably around 2.9%; the current fed funds rate is targeted between 4.75% and 5%. Speaking separately Monday morning, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated he expects the Fed to move aggressively in getting back to a neutral rate.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Kasharki, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Minneapolis

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