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This Wednesday at London Business School, CNBC's Steve Sedgwick will ask two market experts where's best to invest right now. Fowler leads UBS' European equity strategy and global derivative strategy teams. Gooch-Peters is a member of Sanlam's global high-quality equity team and leads the global equity team's investment strategy. Fowler leads UBS' European equity strategy and global derivative strategy teams. Gooch-Peters is a member of Sanlam's global high-quality equity team and leads the global equity team's investment strategy.
Persons: Steve Sedgwick, Gerry Fowler, Hannah Gooch, Peters, Fowler, Gooch, Hannah Organizations: CNBC, London Business School, UBS, Chief European, Sanlam Investments, BNP Paribas, Citi, Sanlam Locations: Abrdn, London, . New York, Singapore
The STOXX Europe 600 hit 500 points for the first time last week, and the benchmark index has since notched yet another all-time high. When stocks fell immediately after seven weeks of gains, they lost 1.17% on average. The Stoxx Europe 600 recorded its longest winning streak between June and August 1993, when the market rose for 12 straight weeks. The weighted average of analyst price targets for the companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 points toward a 9.1% upside potential for the index, according to FactSet data. The bank has an end-of-year price target of 510 points for the Stoxx Europe 600.
Persons: Sebastian Raedler, Emmanuel Cau Organizations: CNBC, of America's, Barclays Locations: Europe
As of Feb. 29 with 313 companies having reported, 50.2% posted a beat, according to a CNBC analysis of FactSet data. This was the smallest percentage of beats — thus the worst earnings season — since the first quarter of 2020 when the pandemic first hit European firms. Share buyback bonanzaSharon Bell, a senior European strategist at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC that she had noticed a new trend for European corporates during this earnings season. "What you have seen is a lot of companies announcing buybacks," she told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" Tuesday. "It is absolutely huge, you've never really seen this before in 20, 30 years, European companies pay dividends, they don't do buybacks," she said.
Persons: , Edward Stanford, Philippe Ferreira, Kepler Cheuvreux, Sharon Bell, Goldman Sachs, CNBC's, you've, Bell, Ferreira Organizations: CNBC, HSBC, L'Oreal, European Central Bank, Shell, Deutsche Bank, Novo Nordisk, UBS Locations: Triomphe, France, Europe, China, Ukraine, European
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, January 19, 2024. Staff | ReutersOver the last 12 months, just 11 stocks made up half of the gains that powered the pan-European Stoxx 600 stock index to a record-high close on Friday. "From a Global point of view, the GRANOLAS have even outperformed the so-called Magnificent 7 over the past two years. Their (out)performance is even more impressive on a risk-adjusted basis: with a volatility 2x lower than for the Magnificent 7, the GRANOLAS help to boost the Sharpe ratio." "This suggests that, in Europe, nearly all revenue growth of the STOXX 600 will come from the GRANOLAS.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Sanofi —, Goldman, Tim Hayes, Ned Davis, Hayes Organizations: Staff, Reuters, GSK, Roche, ASML, Nestle, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, L'Oreal, LVMH, AstraZeneca, SAP, Sanofi, Street, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CNBC Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere is a case to 'stick with equities,' especially in the U.S., CIO saysWillem Sels, global CIO of HSBC's Global Private Banking and Wealth division, discusses U.S. vs European equity markets and which sectors are performing well.
Persons: Willem Sels Organizations: HSBC's, Private Banking, Wealth Locations: U.S
Goldman Sachs has identified three "attractive" value stocks that could see significant share price appreciation over the next 12 months. The Wall Street bank's analysts see over 50% upside potential in British Airways parent International Consolidated Airlines Group , agricultural machinery maker CNH Industrial , and health technology company Philips . Goldman Sachs said all three companies stand out amongst their European peers for their cheap valuations compared to earnings growth prospects. IAG-GB 1Y line Philips Goldman recommends buying Philips and expects the shares to be up 51% over the next 12 months. CNH Industrials Goldman Sachs upgraded CNH to buy last month.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Sawtell, Goldman's, Patrick Creuset, Creuset, Philips Goldman, Roy Jakobs, CNH Industrials Goldman Sachs, Michael Bloom Organizations: British Airways parent International Consolidated Airlines Group, Philips, CNBC Locations: Europe, United States
REUTERS/Andrew Kelly Acquire Licensing RightsSummary poll dataBENGALURU, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Most key global stock indexes are forecast to rise modestly over the coming year, closing 2024 below record highs, while a slim majority of stock market experts polled by Reuters expected their markets to touch new peaks within the next six months. However, only a handful of the 15 top stock indexes were predicted to trade at record peaks by end-2024, based on a wider Nov. 9-22 poll of more than 120 stock market experts. LOWER BOND YIELDSFor now, markets are pricing in a series of 2024 rate cuts, which is sending bond yields lower and stock prices higher. "Falling bond yields are being interpreted by equity markets as a positive in the near-term," said Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at J.P. Morgan. Canada's main stock index was expected to rise less than previously thought over the coming year as a slowdown in the global economy weighs on the outlook for corporate earnings.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Marko Kolanovic, Morgan, Hari Kishan, Indradip Ghosh, Ross Finley, Alex Richardson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BENGALURU, Monday's, Bengaluru, Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Milan, New York, San Francisco, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Toronto
Money market traders are betting September's hike was the last, with almost 90 basis points of rate cuts priced by the end of 2024. European shares underperforming their U.S. counterparts was a common expectation amongst the survey's European respondents as the robust American economy looks more likely to achieve a 'soft landing' than Europe. European shares are much cheaper than those in the U.S., possibly reflecting the worse economic outlook. The STOXX Europe 600 trades at over 12 times 12-month forward earnings, a 35.6% discount to the S&P 500 (.SPX). "Still, as the broader economic slowdown takes hold of the continent's markets, we expect to see a rather challenging second half of 2024."
Persons: Chris Beauchamp, Thomas Monteiro, Germany's DAX, Fiona Cincotta, Cincotta, Investing.com's Monteiro, Monteiro, Samuel Indyk, Danilo Masoni, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Jason Neely Organizations: IG, European Central Bank, ECB, Investing.com, FTSE, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Europe, Germany, riskier, U.S, Bengaluru
The U.S. central bank could even be forced to raise rates to ensure the pace of inflation remains on a downward trajectory and does not bounce back, Goldberg said. Markets also imply about an 80% probability the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut rates by April, while the Bank of England (BoE) is seen easing in August. An outlier is Australia's central bank, which is considered likely to resume raising rates at a policy meeting on Tuesday as inflation there stays stubbornly high. The head of the central bank said on Monday it was closer to achieving its inflation target, but it was still not enough to end ultra-loose policy. The drop in the dollar and yields has helped underpin gold, as investors have cautiously turned back to riskier assets.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Anthony Saglimbene, Saglimbene, We're, BoE, Jerome Powell, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter, Marguerita Choy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Germany's, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, New York, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Troy , Michigan, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia
Hopes for lower borrowing costs overnight helped shares in Asia, which missed out on Friday's rally that was inspired by the U.S. jobs data. DOLLAR DROPSTwo-year Treasury yields , which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 5.9 bps to 4.891% after falling 18 bps last week. The recent retreat in Treasury yields pulled the rug out from under the dollar last week. The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, was steady at 105.07 after sliding 1.4% last week. U.S. crude rose 1.73% to $81.90 per barrel and Brent was at $86.07, up 1.39% on the day.
Persons: Issei Kato, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, BoE, Samy Chaar, Jerome Powell, Brent, Herbert Lash, Wayne Cole, Alun John, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Federal Reserve, TD Securities, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Lombard, ECB, The Bank of Japan, ., Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Europe, New York, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Korea, Saudi Arabia, Russia, East, Israel, Gaza
Investors pulled out a net $7.46 billion from global equity funds during the week, extending outflows into a sixth straight week, data from LSEG showed. European equity funds logged about $7.39 billion worth of outflows during the week, the biggest amount since Sept. 28, 2022. Investors also divested $2.69 billion worth of U.S. equity funds but poured $2.53 billion in Asian funds. Investors also accumulated $18.3 billion worth of money market funds after $108.7 billion worth of net selling a week ago. Data covering 28,654 emerging market funds showed that investors exited EM equity funds of $2.55 billion, extending outflows into an 11th straight week.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Gaurav Dogra, Patturaja, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, Global, Investors, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Commodities, Energy, Thomson Locations: outflows, LSEG, Bengaluru
Investors will look to the upcoming earnings season to see whether stocks can recover from recent losses or if more declines are ahead. "All year, we've seen the steady weakening in European soft data and, more recently, hard data. In a note titled "Q3 Earnings - Make or break," Barclays analysts echoed that sentiment, suggesting that despite resilient earnings thus far, more mixed third-quarter economic indicators hint at equally varied results. UBS analysts have identified stocks that could surprise, both positively and negatively, when their earnings results are released in the coming weeks. Fowler said UBS analysts have historically been pretty accurate at predicting surprises, especially when combined with a value investing bias, which has tended to outperform.
Persons: Gerry Fowler, we've, Fowler, CNBC's, Fowler isn't, Emmanuel Cau, Stocks Organizations: UBS, Barclays, Santander, Ryanair, Siemens Energy, Nordic, Universal Music, AstraZeneca Locations: Europe
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index opened 0.7% down, with most sectors in negative territory. Mining stocks saw the biggest drop with a 1.5% decline, followed by household goods, which fell 1.3%. European equity markets opened at a seven-month low Friday, Reuters data shows, as investors digest comments out of the U.S. and global sentiment stutters. Powell did not lay out a specific policy path but also gave no indication that a further interest rate hike was on the cards. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index provisionally closed 1.16% lower Thursday, its lowest close since March 15, according to LSEG data.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Fed, Union, Treasury Locations: Washington, Asia, Pacific
Morning Bid: Equity bounce ebbs with eyes on Middle East
  + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Israeli soldiers stand near to a tank near Israel's border with Lebanon in northern Israel, October 16, 2023. U.S. and European equity futures were flat, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.7%. British wages data, U.S. retail sales figures and corporate earnings are the calendar items in focus. In China, where gross domestic product data is due on Wednesday, Country Garden (2007.HK) was on the brink of a possible offshore default. Reuters reported China's civil servants and state-enterprise employees face tighter travel constraints, as Beijing wages a campaign against foreign influence.
Persons: Lisi Niesner, Tom Westbrook, Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Israel, Investors, Tel, HK, Reuters, Bank of Australia, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: Lebanon, Israel, Tom, Tom Westbrook Asia, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Russian, Beijing, China, Iran, Tel Aviv, Australia, New Zealand
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGermany is the 'sore athlete' of Europe, not its 'sick man,' Deutsche Bank strategist saysMaximilian Uleer, head of European equity and cross asset strategy at Deutsche Bank, explains why "sick man" is "too bad" a term to describe Germany.
Persons: Maximilian Uleer Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Europe, Germany
BMO promotes Alan Tannenbaum to head capital markets division
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A Bank of Montreal (BMO) logo is seen outside of a branch in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 14, 2019. Tannenbaum joined BMO in 2010 and has held multiple leadership roles, most recently leading global investment and corporate banking, where he worked with corporate, government and financial sponsor clients worldwide. Before then, he headed the global corporate finance solutions group, where he was responsible for capital raising activities. CEO Darryl White said Tannenbaum is "well-positioned to capture new growth opportunities" for BMO Capital Markets. Brad Chapin will take over for Tannenbaum as global head, investment and corporate banking on an interim basis, BMO said.
Persons: Chris Wattie, Alan Tannenbaum, Dan Barclay, Tannenbaum, Darryl White, Barclay, White, Brad Chapin, Nivedita Balu, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: of Montreal, BMO, REUTERS, Companies Bank of Montreal, Bank of Montreal, BMO Capital Markets, Lehman Brothers, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, TORONTO, London, New York, Toronto
Deutsche Bank strategists recommend equity overweight into 2024
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
Deutsche Bank logo is seen in this illustration taken March 12, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Strategists at Deutsche Bank have recommended an overweight in equities into 2024, as risks are now well reflected in the market and those are about to turn into opportunities. "We anticipated weaker growth, disappointing beats in earnings and disappointing central bank communication into Q3," Deutsche Bank strategists, led by Maximilian Uleer, head of European Equity- and Cross Asset Strategy, said in a note. The bank has set its 2024 forecast for the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) at 510, for the Euro STOXX 50 (.STOXX50E) at 4,850 and DAX 40 (.GDAXI) at 18,000. Deutsche Bank added it remained neutral U.S. equities versus Europe, while within Europe is underweight the Switzerland's SMI (.SSMI) due to its "defensive character into a bullish market."
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Maximilian Uleer, DAX, Uleer, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Amanda Cooper, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Deutsche Bank, REUTERS, European Equity, Europe, Thomson Locations: Europe, Israel, Palestine
Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 1.2% at $1,854.10 per ounce. Among those is the potential of a rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.
Persons: Brent, , Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Noel Randewich, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany
Oct 9 (Reuters) - Fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East are threatening more volatility for investors after a painful stretch in U.S. markets. Investors were on guard for the potential of the conflict spreading to embroil other countries, including Iran, and a continued spike in oil prices. Prices for gold, a popular destination for investors during uncertain times, were up 0.9% at $1,849.40 per ounce. Among those is a potential rebound in oil prices that could weigh on U.S. economic growth and endanger the so-called soft landing narrative that has helped boost stocks this year. “The worst-case scenario from a geopolitical risk perspective would be a full-scale confrontation between Israel and Iran,” said Tina Fordham, geopolitical strategist and founder of Fordham Global Foresight.
Persons: Brent, , Mohit Kumar, Tina Fordham, Paul Nolte, Murphy, Emmanuel Cau, Althea Spinozzi, Naomi Rovnick, Lewis Krauskopf, Dhara Ranasinghe, Davide Barbuscia, Marc Jones, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Jefferies, Fordham Global Foresight, Federal Reserve, Sylvest Wealth Management, Treasury, Barclays, Mobileye, Intel, Solaredge Technologies, East, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S, Gaza, Iran, Europe, London, Israel, United States, Germany
"The recent decline in European luxury stocks reflects the uncertainty over the European economy and also the uneven growth outlook for the Chinese economy," Garnry said. Reuters GraphicsTHE LUXURY GAPAlthough luxury valuations have come down, they are still well above the rest of the market. The end of the French luxury group's 2-1/2 year-long reign was widely put down to investors losing appetite for luxury stocks as well as the growth of Novo's anti-obesity drug Wegovy. Some analysts have turned cautious on the luxury sector, with UBS last week reducing its estimates to account for the risk of slowing Chinese consumption. Gerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy and global derivative strategy at UBS, said risks in luxury stocks started to become more apparent in May.
Persons: Louis, Stephanie Lecocq, Bernard Ahkong, Peter Garnry, Garnry, LVMH, Morgan Stanley, Gerry Fowler, Bernstein, Gilles Guibout, Lucy Raitano, Mimosa Spencer, Amanda Cooper, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Paris Fashion, U.S, UBS O'Connor Global, Alpha, Saxo Bank, Reuters Graphics, GAP, Novo Nordisk, UBS, Bank of America, AXA Investment Mangers, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, PARIS, Europe, U.S, China, United States
A peak in bond yields may be near but that's not necessarily good news for equity investors, according to JPMorgan. Mislav Matejka, head of global and European equity strategy at JPMorgan, expects bond yields will soon fall after their recent rise. For bond traders, that could be an opportunity to position for a long duration trade, Matejka said. "The move up in bond yields might not be sustainable; our fixed income team is looking for yields to fall from current levels in most places." "If bond yields roll over, will it help equity valuations?"
Persons: that's, Mislav Matejka, Matejka Organizations: JPMorgan, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Traders, Equity, U.S Locations: U.S, Japan, Europe
According to LSEG data, global bond funds suffered disposals of $3.25 billion on a net basis, compared with $2.29 billion worth of net purchases in the week before. High-yield bond funds booked $3.11 billion of net selling during the week, the biggest outflow in six months. Investors also shed $300 million worth of corporate bond funds while pouring about $2.35 million into government bond funds. Data showed global equity funds experienced a net $10.7 billion worth of outflow, the biggest in a week since Aug. 23. Data for emerging markets comprising 28,251 funds showed that equity funds’ outflows stood at $3.7 billion, the highest since June 7.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, outflows, ’ outflows Organizations: Reuters, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Investors, Locations: New York City, U.S, outflows, outgo
The STOXX 600 European oil and gas index (.SXEP) is at its highest since mid-February, having gained around 13.5% in the past two months. In the same period, benchmark Brent crude has risen 18% and European natural gas prices have gained 50%. He said higher oil prices could prompt upgrades to earnings estimates, and potentially dividends too. "The whole energy sector should benefit, but the downstream sector is looking very cheap and offers a high dividend which is attractive given higher interest rates," said Cau. Bank of America strategists have an underweight rating on European energy stocks.
Persons: Heinz, Peter Bader, Brent, Mislav Matejka, Morgan Stanley, Emmanuel Cau, Andreas Bruckner, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Brent, Reuters, JPMorgan, Barclays, Bank of America, Thomson Locations: Zistersdorf, Austria, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSome opportunities are opening up in the luxury space, equity strategist saysMichael Field, European equity strategist at Morningstar, discusses the outlook for consumer goods and travel.
Persons: Michael Field Organizations: Morningstar
Lags starting to appear in areas of U.S. economy: UBS
  + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLags starting to appear in areas of U.S. economy: UBSGerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at UBS, discusses Fed cuts, the U.S. economy and market responses.
Persons: UBS Gerry Fowler Organizations: UBS Locations: U.S
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