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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket rotation will be bullish over the short-term, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss if the market rotation has staying power.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research
Second quarter earnings season could trigger the most painful stock correction since 2022, according to NDR. AdvertisementHere's what investors should look out for during the second quarter earnings season, according to NDR. Therefore, it's not a matter of whether analysts will cut their second-half earnings growth estimates but rather by how much they will cut. "Management teams have guided the Q2 year/year growth rate down to 5.7% from 7.0% at the end of May. "Analysts are banking the Mag 7 to continue to drive earnings growth, but the rest of the market to participate more.
Persons: , Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: NDR, Service, Ned Davis Research, Management, Nvidia, Amazon
The most bullish S&P 500 price target is 6,000 from Evercore ISI, which represents a gain of about 7%. While the average year-end S&P 500 price target is 5,429, according to data from Bloomberg, the median year-end price target is 5,600. Yardeni Research: S&P 500 price target of 5,800Yardeni Research raised its year-end S&P 500 price target to 5,800 from 5,400 this week. Goldman Sachs: S&P 500 price target of 5,600Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin boosted his S&P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,200 last month. UBS: S&P 500 price target of 5,600UBS raised its S&P 500 price target to 5,600 from 5,400 in May, and that's after the bank raised its price target in February.
Persons: , Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, they're, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Eric Wallerstein, Wallerstein, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Jonathan Golub Organizations: Wall, ISI, Service, Bloomberg, CNBC, Security, Yardeni, Research, Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, UBS, Chicago, & $ Locations: bearish
He favors small-cap, mid-cap, and quality stocks over the Big Tech mega-caps leading the market rally for three reasons. One is that the earnings winning streak that Magnificent Seven stocks have enjoyed is simply difficult to keep going. In the first quarter of this year, Magnificent Seven earnings grew by 50% annualized year-over-year, according to Ned Davis Research. Wall Street estimates Magnificent Seven earnings will grow by 28% year-over-year in Q2. When it comes to innovating and adapting, small and mid-cap companies' size gives them a relative advantage.
Persons: , Larry Kochard, Ned Davis, Kochard, reinvesting, It's, it's Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Capital Management, Business, Ned Davis Research, Wall, The, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, European Union, Quality
London CNN —President Joe Biden had a shaky performance in last night’s presidential debate, triggering panic in the Democrat camp. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, repeated multiple falsehoods while doubling down on his record of cutting taxes and hiking tariffs during his first presidential term. If repeated in a second Trump term, many economists fear that kind of agenda could stoke inflation at a critical moment and add to America’s rapidly growing debt mountain. That could pull the typical year-end election relief rally forward, said Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research. The US dollar has also been reactive — it edged higher as initial CNN polling found that Trump was viewed as the winner of the debate.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, shrugged, , Keith Lerner, Barack Obama, Trump, Lerner, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Antonio Ernesto Di Giacomo, , Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, Jonas Goltermann, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, France’s, CDK, Ramishah Maruf, Eva Rothenberg, aren’t, they’ve, Scott Campbell, CNN they’ve, Jordan Valinsky, Tim Wentworth Organizations: London CNN, Democrat, Trump, , Biden, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Investors, Capital Economics, CNN, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, CAC, CDK, Auto, Capital City Buick GMC, Bloomberg, Walgreens Locations: France, , North America, United States, Canada, Berlin , Vermont, Eastern Europe, America
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, Crossmark’s Victoria Fernandez and Ned Davis’ Ed ClissoldCharles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, Crossmark's Victoria Fernandez and Ned Davis' Ed Clissold, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss the market divergence and navigating performance disparities.
Persons: Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, Victoria Fernandez, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders, Ed Clissold
The S&P 500 alone has generated an average return of 7% during presidential election years since 1952, according to LPL Financial. If you limit that to election years in which the incumbent president is running for reelection, the average jumps to 12.2%. Yes, but: Market volatility in an election year tends to pick up in October and there are many months left in this cycle with potential surprises to come. “An autumn pullback fits well time wise with potential downside earnings revisions, make-or-break decision time for the Fed, and election uncertainty. The first round of the French election will be held on June 30, with a second round on July 7.
Persons: Goldman Sachs —, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, they’re, It’s, Goldman Sachs ’ Scott Rubner, , , Mark Hackett, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jim Reid, There’s, Emmanuel Macron, Katie Nixon, Chris Isidore ., they’ve, Samantha Murphy Kelly, ChatGPT —, Siri —, OpenAI, Siri, ChatGPT, hasn’t, Organizations: London CNN — Traders, Investors, White, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Nasdaq, Citigroup, Goldman, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Deutsche, Fed, United, Labour Party, Renaissance, Northern Trust Wealth Management, Alaska Airlines, Alaska —, Southwest —, Southwest, Railway Labor, Apple, Apple Intelligence, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Samsung, Cyberspace Administration, Wall, IDC Locations: United States, France, , Alaska, China
Traders are gearing up for an increase in volatility around the November elections in the United States, according to one market indicator. Stacey Gilbert, CIO of Glenmede Investment Management, said that the futures market for the Cboe Volatility Index is showing a distortion around the November election. Vix futures are basically a way to bet on or hedge against where the index will be trading at the time of expiration. The expectation for volatility around this election is pretty sizable," Gilbert said. "It would stand to reason that the Vix, or volatility in general, would increase around then," he added.
Persons: Stacey Gilbert, Gilbert, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, it's, Clissold Organizations: Glenmede Investment Management, Republican, Democratic, Bank of America, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Republicans Locations: United States, U.S
Historical post-election market gains could lead the S & P 500 even higher by the end of the year, according to Ned Davis Research. Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist raised his year-end S & P 500 target to 5,725 from 4,900 . Although Ned Davis Research isn't included in CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey , when comparing the price targets across various Wall Street names, the firm has the second-highest forecast for the broad market index. The S & P 500's 14.5% year-to-date gains have largely come from high-flying technology names such as Nvidia and Meta Platforms. The S & P 500's equal-weighted version, however, is up just 4% in 2024.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research, CNBC Pro's, Survey, Federal Reserve, White, Nvidia, Meta Locations: U.S
A shortage of 2.2 million homes suggest the US housing market will remain unaffordable. The research firm said a shortage of 2.2 million homes is compounding the US housing market's affordability issues. Related stories"Since 2015, we have been warning about a chronic housing shortage, leading to a supply/demand imbalance. Rising development prices across the board suggest to NDR that housing supply will remain constrained for years to come. "The wave of immigrants has not seemed to impact the supply/demand balance for workers, a traditional area for Latino immigrants," NDR said.
Persons: , Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Veneta Dimitrova, Powell Organizations: Service, Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve
The first half of the year has generally been good for the market, with the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq repeatedly reaching record highs. Year-to-date, the S & P 500 is up around 13% and the Nasdaq has risen 14.9%. Against that uncertain backdrop, investors might be looking at exchange-traded funds or mutual funds to diversify their investments. Morningstar provided the list of top-performing funds, which all beat the S & P 500. Using FactSet, that list was screened for funds that analysts give 10% or more upside, and that at least half give a buy rating.
Persons: Thomas Poullaouec, Rowe Price, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Morningstar, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, CNBC Pro, Copper Miners, X Copper Miners, Industrial, Richard Bernstein Advisors Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, Turkey
Emerging markets investors have had a bumpy week after surprising election results seem to have caught at least some traders off guard. Between now and Nov. 5 are almost all negative potential risks in Mexico," Joshi added. Elsewhere in the world There are other lingering political issues that could affect emerging market investing. And for investors in broad emerging markets funds, even positive developments in some of these countries can be overshadowed by what happens in China. "It's a very large weight so it's going to drive the emerging market index quite a bit.
Persons: Narendra Modi, Modi, Aastha Gudwani, Angus Shillington, Shillington, Adam Turnquist, We've, Turnquist, Claudia Sheinbaum, Andres Manual Lopez, Morgan Stanley's Nikolaj Lippmann, Arif Joshi, Joshi, Sheinbaum, Lopez, Claudia, Polina Kurdyavko, Javier Milei, Alejandra Grindal, Ned Davis, Grindal, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Indian, Bank of America India, CNBC, LPL, Lazard Asset, RBC Global Asset Management, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Federal Reserve Locations: India, Mexico, South Asia, VanEck, U.S, Morena, South Africa, Argentina, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe need the Fed to cut rates slowly to maintain the bull rally, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the likelihood of the bull rally continuing and what risks could bring the rally to a halt.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned, Ned Davis Research Locations: U.S
U.S. stock futures opened little changed on Thursday as investors geared up for Friday morning's nonfarm payrolls report. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched higher by 16 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures hovered near the flatline. The S&P 500 edged lower by 0.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.09%. The Dow has a 0.52% gain, while the S&P 500 is higher by 1.43% and the Nasdaq is on pace for a 2.62% advance.
Persons: nonfarm, Dow, Dow Jones, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Ned Davis Research, European Central Bank, Fed Locations: U.S, it's
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe record market rally has stalled in recent weeks, just as skeptics of stocks became believers. Advertisement9 stocks to put in your portfolio nowAlthough the market's path forward is murky with the pivotal US election season coming up, investors shouldn't fret. A team of BMO strategists headlined by Belski unveiled their latest US strategy portfolios in a June 3 note. For reference, the US tactical equity portfolio surged 4.9% last month, roughly in line with the S&P 500, and has outperformed by 0.9% this year and 2.8% in the last 12 months.
Persons: , Brian Belski, hasn't, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, he's, David Lundgren, Belski Organizations: Service, BMO Capital Markets, UBS, Business, Ned, Ned Davis Research, BMO, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia Locations: Montreal, BMO's US
The tour began outside the mansion, where our guide spoke about the three families that owned the property: the Pauldings, the Merritts, and the Goulds. The side of Lyndhurst Mansion. Talia Lakritz/Business InsiderIn 1836, former New York City mayor William Paulding and his wife, New York real-estate heiress Maria Rhinelander Paulding, purchased the land overlooking the Hudson River to build a summer home. In 1864, the Pauldings' son sold the mansion to George Merritt, who made his fortune as the patent holder of a rubber spring used in railroad cars, and his wife, Julia. After her death, Anna left the Lyndhurst estate to the National Trust for Historic Preservation, which manages the site today.
Persons: Talia Lakritz, William Paulding, Maria Rhinelander, Alexander Jackson Davis, George Merritt, Julia, Davis, Jay Gould, Helen Day Miller, Helen Gould, Anna Gould, Anna Organizations: National Trust for Historic Preservation Locations: Lyndhurst, New York City, New York, Maria Rhinelander Paulding, French
You can't argue with a market making new record highs, though it's fair game to interrogate the tape about its assumptions and intentions. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 40,000 for the first time Friday and the S & P 500 settling above 5,300 after hitting a fresh all-time high Wednesday, the advice of history suggests not overthinking it. Keith Lerner, strategist at Truist, marks up a long-term S & P 500 chart to show times when it was at an all-time high. Brian Belski, strategist at BMO, last week lifted his year-end S & P 500 target to a Street-high 5,600 . And, quite remarkably, the stock market low of October 2022 occurred at an S & P 500 forward P/E above 15, with unemployment below 4% and in mid-economic expansion.
Persons: Stocks, Keith Lerner, Ned Davis, Brian Belski, Leuthold, Doug Ramsey Organizations: Treasury, Dow Jones, Dow, Ned Davis Research, Investment, Bank, Federal, BMO, Citi U.S, Vegas, Fed, Leuthold Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinancials and utilities will benefit from a Fed rate cut, says Ned Davis' Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss why he's bullish on the markets and which sectors he sees as having good opportunity plays.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold
Now that the S & P 500 and most major stock market indexes are at or near historic highs, expect a raft of earnings and year-end price target revisions for the S & P 500 to be coming. First up with an upward revision was Brian Belski at BMO Capital, who Wednesday raised his year-end S & P target to 5,600 from 5,100. The median price target (half above, half below) is 5,200. Earnings for the rest of the year have been remarkably stable, but the key point is that each quarter is higher and a record for S & P 500 profits: 2024 S & P 500 quarterly earnings estimates Q2: $59.46 (record) Q3: $63.49 (record) Q4: $65.08 (record) Source: LSEG Valuations (roughly 20 times forward S & P 500 earnings) are pricey but not unreasonable given the continuing strength of the economy and the prospects of AI-boosted returns. May: market advance broadens (advance/decline line) S & P 500: near new high S & P Mid Cap: new high S & P Small Cap: highest since Dec.
Persons: Sam Stovall, CFRA, Brian Belski, Belski, Subramanian, Venu Krishna, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Oppenheimer, John Stoltzfus, Lori Calvasina, Manish, Nicolaus, Barry Banniester, Jonathan Golub, Chris Harvey, Dubravko, Bujas, Cantor Fitzgerald, Eric Johnson, Scott Chronert, Julian Emanuel, Fundstrat, Tom Lee, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Hugo Ste, Stovall Organizations: BMO Capital, Wall, of America, Barclays, BMO, RBC, Societe Generale, UBS, Bloomberg, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, ISI, JPMorgan, Scotiabank, @VX Locations: Wells Fargo, Marie
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings will continue to be the market driver in 2024, says Ned Davis Research's Ed ClissoldEd Clissold, Ned Davis Research chief U.S. strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the moves in today's trading day.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold Ed Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research
Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. AdvertisementVarious economic indicators that suggested a recession was imminent not too long ago have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. That means investors probably don't have to worry about an economic recession occurring any time soon. AdvertisementThese are the five recession indicators that are no longer flashing red as the resilient US economy continues to power forward. In February, the LEI ticked up 0.1% and the Conference Board no longer expects a recession," Kalish said.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Board's LEI, LEI Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Gross, GDI, Conference Board
The economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future, according to Ned Davis Research. The conflicting data suggests the Fed should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. AdvertisementThe US economy is sending mixed signals about when the next recession will arrive. Other economic indicators that measure manufacturing activity have been improving lately and argue for a long runway of economic growth ahead. That advice appears especially poignant following the release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report, which plunged the probability of the first Fed interest rate cut happening in June from 50% to about 20% and pushed out the likelihood of a rate cut to July.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Federal Reserve Locations: Europe
It’s hard not to be swept up in Davis-Woodhall’s approach to the long jump, especially when she finds reason to laugh even in the heat of fierce competition. “My entire memo is have fun,” she tells CNN Sport. Long jump is one track and field discipline which governing body World Athletics seems interested in developing, such as by introducing a take-off zone in the place of a fixed board. “I think it might be a little silly,” she says, “just because you kind of take away from the principle of long jump. That’s even more true for an athlete like Davis-Woodhall, currently jumping further and with more confidence than ever before.
Persons: Tara Davis, Woodhall, dally, I’m, , I’ve, Ben Stansall, Serbia’s Ivana Španović, , Davis, don’t, , “ I’m, “ I’ve, ” Davis, Hunter Woodall, Michael Woods, “ Tara, Hunter, Hunter Woodhall, it’s, Michael Steele, Jon Ridgeon Organizations: CNN, CNN Sport, Davis, Paris Olympics, Tokyo Olympics, Woodhall, Doping Agency, , University of Texas, World Athletics Locations: Glasgow, Scotland, Davis, AFP, , Albuquerque , New Mexico, Tokyo, Budapest, Hungary
Was that a change in the market's character last week, or is it still the same old bull? This is generally to the good, as boring markets are bullish markets while they remain that way. Rates and commodities worries Other asset markets have also been at least inviting the question about a potential shift in character. The good news on this, as I keep insisting, is that it hasn't been a truly Fed-driven market. Though it's easy to imagine the market chafing at this kind of higher-rate, higher-growth equilibrium if it continues too much longer.
Persons: Ned Davis, Jerome Powell, hasn't, That's, We're, It's, Andrew Kelly Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, Investors Intelligence, Investment, Deutsche Bank ., New York Stock Exchange Locations: New York City, U.S
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Here's a scouting report covering a few relevant themes at play heading into the second quarter. The tenacious tape The behavior of the market itself is perhaps the strongest selling point for a bullish outlook from here. After the S & P has returned 10% or more in a first quarter? The index continued higher the following quarter nine of those 11 and was up the remainder of the year all but once. All but one of the previous episodes saw the market higher nine months later, which in this case would take it through 2024.
Persons: It's, YTD, we've, it's, , Joe Kalish, Ned Davis, Organizations: Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, JPMorgan, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Eaton Corp
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