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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Some caution might be good for markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. While analysts think this move may mark the end of China's deflationary streak, many think monetary policy is not enough. How much will oil demand grow? The International Energy Agency thinks oil demand will level off at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

Persons: Larry Hu, Consumer's, September's, Dow Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, U.S ., People's Bank of China, Macquarie, International Energy Agency, U.S, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Citi Locations: Corte Madera, Corte Madera , California, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S .

☆ Consumer confidence fell more than expected this month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

The board’s Consumer Confidence Index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August 2021. By contrast, the index had a reading of 132.6 in February 2020, a month before the Covid pandemic hit. Each of the five components the organization samples fared worse on the month, with the biggest fall coming among those aged 35-54 and earning less than $50,000. “Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income,” said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.

Persons: Dow, ”, Dana Peterson, Stocks, ” Peterson Organizations: Conference Board, Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Americans are fretting over the job market
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Washington CNN —America’s slowing job market is taking a toll on people’s moods. The Conference Board’s latest consumer survey showed that Americans became much more pessimistic about the US economy’s current health and the future of the job market. “September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated.”The US job market is in decent shape, but it is clearly running at a much slower pace these days than it has in recent years. Peterson said the weaker-than-expected survey results “reflected consumers’ concerns about the labor market and reactions to fewer hours, slower payroll increases, fewer job openings — even if the labor market remains quite healthy, with low unemployment, few layoffs and elevated wages.”The job market’s fate is unclear. Employers might be holding back on hiring for two good reasons: Uncertainty over the upcoming US presidential election and the fate of interest rates, CNN previously reported.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, mightily, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump Organizations: Washington CNN, Conference Board, Employers, Federal Reserve, CNN

☆ Market headed for first winning September in 5 years, but don't get too comfortable
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In fact, the S & P 500 is on pace for a winning September — its first since 2019 — with a gain of more than 1%. The month is typically the worst stretch of the year on average for all three major averages and the Russell 2000, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Some of September's strength could be attributed to the Federal Reserve's supersized rate cut last week . The S & P 500 notched a fresh record close on Monday and an intraday all-time high on Tuesday. The benchmark S & P 500 typically pulls back nearly 1% on average in October in election years, per the Stock Trader's Almanac.

Persons: —, Russell, Gary Pzegeo Organizations: Federal, CIBC Private Wealth Management

☆ Morgan Stanley outlines the best-case scenario for stocks in the 4th quarter
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Morgan Stanley is now looking ahead at the perfect mixture of conditions for a strong fourth quarter. The firm is squarely focused on an improvement in the labor market driving the best possible returns. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve nailed the rate-cut scenario that Morgan Stanley called its best-case result leading into the decision. Heading into last week's announcement, Morgan Stanley was looking for a 50-basis-point cut that didn't also stoke worries about unnecessary growth. To be sure, job conditions are not the only thing Morgan Stanley is watching.

Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, —, didn't, Mike Wilson, Wilson Organizations: Federal, Service, Reserve, stoke, Bank of America, Conference Board

☆ Stock market today: New record highs as Nvidia surge offsets weak consumer sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A weak consumer confidence reading caused indexes to briefly drop early morning. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Investors reacted with dismay after the latest consumer sentiment reading, with confidence among US consumers logging its largest one-month drop in more than three years. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index came in at 98.7 for September, well below consensus estimates of a 104 reading. Advertisement"It's never good to see consumer confidence fall this much.

Persons: —, Jamie Cox, Jensen Huang Organizations: Nvidia, Service, Harris Financial, Federal Locations: China

☆ September consumer confidence falls the most in three years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The board's Consumer Confidence Index slid to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August, the biggest one-month decline since August 2021. By contrast, the index had a reading of 132.6 in February 2020, a month before the Covid pandemic hit. "Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. The last time the confidence index dropped more came as inflation was just beginning a climb to what ultimately was the highest level in more than 40 years.

Persons: Dow, Dana Peterson, Stocks, Peterson Organizations: Conference Board, Treasury, Federal Reserve

☆ Modelo maker Constellation Brands jumps, and the S&P 500 eyes another record close
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. After struggling near the open, consumer staples is making a push higher on the daily S & P 500 sector leaderboard. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, There's, We're, Piper Sandler, Brown, Forman, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, ., Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Sunday, Abbott Laboratories, GE Healthcare, Novo Nordisk, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, Motors, Starbucks, Thor, Philadelphia Federal, Conference, Richmond, Jim Cramer's Charitable

☆ Stock futures are flat after Dow closes at a fresh record: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on Sept. 23, 2024. U.S. stock futures were little changed Monday after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average posted new record closes. Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow slipped 38 points, or 0.09%. S&P 500 futures inched down 0.11%. Earlier in the day, the S&P 500 rose 0.28% and the Dow added 0.15%, resulting in closing records for both indexes.

Persons: Dow, Paul Hickey, There's, You've, Hickey, Quincy Krosby Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Investment, LPL, Traders, Conference, Richmond Fed Locations: Quincy, mull

☆ Americans Really Hate the so-so Economy, Worried About Recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

We expected there to be a cooling labor market — that's kind of the goal — and it's always just, you know, how cool?" That being said, when it comes to the labor market … it is, in fact, so over. That's an improvement over July's 4.3% unemployment rate, but overall, the jobs market in the US is cooling off. Related stories"If you imagine a labor market like a bathtub, the bathtub is full," said Dana Peterson, the chief economist at the Conference Board. Despite the strong labor market, they're sending endless résumés into the ether without getting any bites, and they don't understand why.

Persons: I've, it's, Allison Shrivastava, Joanne Hsu, there's, Dana Peterson, Jaime, Alexis Fowler, she'd, That's, pang, Hsu, Michael Madowitz, Y, Peterson, We're, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal, University of Michigan, Conference Board, Roosevelt Institute, Business

☆ Amazon tells workers they must come to the office 5 days a week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Jordan Valinsky | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Amazon is demanding that its corporate employees return to the office five days a week, a significant change from its current pandemic-era hybrid policy that requires them to be in the office just three days a week. Jassy has previously advocated that employees work in the office, writing that a physical presence improves company culture. Last year, some corporate workers staged a walkout at its Seattle headquarters, citing multiple grievances, including the push to get workers back in the office at least three days a week. The walkout in May 2023 also occurred months after the company confirmed it was laying off some 27,000 workers over multiple rounds of cuts. Although companies in certain sectors, particularly on Wall Street, have emphasized a full return, companies have largely let up on demanding that employees work five days a week in the office.

Persons: Andy Jassy, Jassy, “, ” Jassy Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference Board Locations: New York, Seattle

☆ Average base pay raises at larger corporations projected to be just under 4% next year
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —Mostly large US corporations are projecting an average increase in their base pay budgets of 3.9% for next year, according to a new survey of 300 compensation leaders across 11 major industries from The Conference Board. That is lower than the 4.4% average increase they paid out in 2023, which marked a 20-year high for base pay raises. But it is a tick up from the 3.8% bump that companies were paying out this year, according to The Conference Board. Base pay budget increases are typically viewed as a proxy for the average raises employees may receive. Actual base pay increases next year may be different if economic and business conditions change.

Persons: Dana Peterson Organizations: New, New York CNN, The Conference Board, Conference Board, Base, ” Conference Board Locations: New York

☆ The US will enter a mild recession as the economy deflates after its boost from unproductive stimulus cash, former Commerce Secretary says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US is moving toward a recession, as the economy is feeling the comedown after trillions of "unproductive" cash was pumped in during the pandemic, according to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. AdvertisementBut most of the stimulus cash wasn't deployed productively, Ross said, pointing to Americans who "immediately spent" their checks in a wild shopping spree. Related storiesStrength in the labor market was also partly distorted by stimulus cash, he suggested. Hiring has steadily slowed over the past year, with the unemployment rate triggering one long-running recession indicator with a perfect track record. Most economists still agree that the economy remains on solid footing, given the rapid pace of growth and historically low unemployment rate.

Persons: —, Wilbur Ross, Trump, Ross Organizations: Service, Commerce, Bloomberg, Business, Conference, Investor

☆ American demand for international trips drives 'travel momentum' and overall spending
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-02 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Travel spending among American households continues to outpace its pre-pandemic levels, a trend underpinned by a zeal for international trips, according to new Bank of America research. "A key part of travel momentum lies within vacationing abroad," Taylor Bowley and Joe Wadford, economists at the Bank of America Institute, wrote in a note Wednesday. Overall, travel spending is down slightly from 2023, yet it remains "much higher" than 2019 — up by 10.6% per household, they wrote, citing Bank of America credit and debit card data from January to mid-August. About 17% of Americans said in June that they intended to vacation abroad during the next six months, up from roughly 14% in 2018 and 2019, according to a recent Conference Board survey. "I do expect the demand to continue," said Hayley Berg, lead economist at travel site Hopper.

Persons: Taylor Bowley, Joe Wadford, Taylor, Wadford, Hayley Berg, Hopper Organizations: Bank of America, Bank of America Institute, Finance, Board

☆ The Fed now will focus on the employment part of its mission — and for good reason
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Various indicators are pointing to a labor market that, if not in outright deterioration, is at least slowing. "Declines of this magnitude tend to occur when the economy is heading into recession and when the unemployment rate is on the ascent," he said. The unemployment rate almost always either heads up or down, with little evidence of extended plateaus. The current momentum is up, though the consensus estimate for August is that the unemployment rate will tick down to 4.2%, according to FactSet. "When you talk to firms ... it doesn't look like the labor market is not healthy," former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Tuesday on CNBC.

Persons: Troy Ludtka, Jerome Powell, Beth Ann Bovino, Mary Daly, Nonfarm, Nikko, Loretta Mester, hasn't Organizations: Federal, Nikko Securities, Conference Board, Board, Labor Department, San Francisco Fed, Bloomberg News, Cleveland Fed, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ Travel isn’t dead. It’s just taking a vacation
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-19 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —CEOs of many of the biggest US hotel and travel companies are coming off a bit like doomsayers these days with their warnings about the declining health of consumers and their waning appetite for travel. Gary Hershorn/Getty ImagesMuch of the revenue growth that travel companies reported in recent years resulted from inflation, said David Tinsley, a senior economist at Bank of America Institute. “It was always going to be tough to expect travel spending to be showing the kind of momentum it showed 12 months ago,” he told CNN. “I don’t think the current situation is particularly bleak — it’s reasonable to see more normalization playing out,” he said, referring to travel spending getting back on par with pre-pandemic trends. Still, it’s not hard to see why this mixed picture is prompting travel companies to tread carefully.

Persons: —, ”, Brian Chesky, “ It’s, Ellie Mertz, Chris Nassetta, Airbnb’s Mertz, haven’t, Jan Freitag, ” Freitag, Walt Disney, Gary Hershorn, David Tinsley, Tinsley, “, Steve Hafner, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference, Bank of America Institute, CNN Locations: New York, ”

☆ American workers are stuck in place because everyone is too afraid of a recession to quit
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The stagnation has resulted in a rise in "stuck" workers — frustrated employees who say they want to quit a job, but are staying put as the fear of a potential recession looms in the backs of their minds. Google search interest for the search phrase "quitting job" is down 11% over the last year, according to data accessed from the search analytics tool Glimpse. AdvertisementGoogle search interest in the term "recession" has exploded 230% over the past month, Glimpse data shows. Google search interest in "recession" has more than doubled in the past month. Job market forecasters say the slowdown in hiring looks poised to continue, even if the Fed begins to loosen monetary policy.

Persons: —, That's, Amanda, It's, I've, Raymond Lee, Careerminds, Korn, Radhika Papandreou, Papandreou Organizations: Service, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Conference Board, Google, Fed, National Federation of Independent

☆ Jobs Report Shows the Labor Market Is in Danger, Recession Possible
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Emily Stewart | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

The jobs report said the US economy added 114,000 jobs in July, far fewer than the 176,000 jobs that economists expected. The weakness of the jobs report tipped the worry scale and sent markets into meltdown mode. Outside the July jobs report, there were plenty of signs the labor market was cooling off. If that seems confusing, here's the only thing you really need to know: The July jobs report triggered the Sahm rule. Nobody should be losing a ton of sleep over the state of the labor market or over the economy overall.

Persons: it's, Guy Berger, doesn't, Skanda Amarnath, there's, what's, Claudia Sahm, we're, Amarnath, Alí Bustamante, Bustamante, would've, it'll, Jay Powell, Berger, Emily Stewart Organizations: Federal Reserve, Glass, Labor, Survey, New Century Advisors, Worker Power, Economic Security, Roosevelt Institute, Fed, Business

☆ Why a full-fledged bear market is still unlikely even after the latest sharp sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Bank of America says the recent stock market sell-off is unlikely to be the start of a new bear market. AdvertisementThe stock market's recent sharp sell-off is unlikely to transform into a full-fledged bear market, according to Bank of America. But according to Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian, the tell-tale signs of a stock market peak have yet to materialize. AdvertisementFor perspective, Subramanian pointed to stock market history to highlight that pullbacks in the market are common. Instead of preparing for a prolonged market sell-off, Subramanian recommends investors go bargain hunting and focus on buying high quality stocks.

Persons: BofA, —, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: of America, Credit, Service, Bank of America, Nasdaq, Conference, Senior

☆ Odland: Economy will slow this year but not into a recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOdland: Economy will slow this year but not into a recessionSteve Odland, President and CEO of The Conference Board, discusses the July jobs report, the economy, and interest rates.

Persons: Steve Odland Organizations: Conference Board

☆ Why an indicator that has foretold almost every recession doesn't seem to be working anymore
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

According to the New York Federal Reserve, which uses the 10-year/three-month curve, a recession should happen about 12 months later. The inversion is not aloneMaking the situation even more complicated is that the yield curve isn't the only indicator showing reason for caution about how long the post-Covid recovery can last. But the rate dynamics have helped companies escape what usually happens in an inverted curve. With an inverted curve hitting their net interest margins, banks may opt to lend less, causing a pullback in consumer spending that can lead to recession. This could provide something of a self-fulfilling prophecy for the yield curve.

Persons: Alex Kent, hasn't, —, there's, it's, Mark Zandi, It's, Joseph LaVorgna, SMBC, Quincy Krosby, We've, Jim Paulsen, Paulsen, That's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, Moody's, New York Federal Reserve, SMBC Nikko Securities, Gross, National Bureau of Economic Research, Commerce Department, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: New York, SMBC Nikko, Wells Fargo

☆ Tomorrow's CPI won't 'seal the deal' for a September rate cut, says economist Dana Peterson
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTomorrow's CPI won't 'seal the deal' for a September rate cut, says economist Dana PetersonDana Peterson, The Conference Board Chief Economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what to expect from the Fed moving forward and if a rate cut is on the horizon.

Persons: Dana Peterson Dana Peterson Organizations: The Conference Board

☆ Americans felt shakier about the economy in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —US consumer confidence teetered slightly in June as Americans grew a little more wary about the future, new data released Tuesday showed. The Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index dipped to a reading of 100.4 in June from 101.3 in May. Readings of Americans’ confidence are typically closely watched, as consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of US economic activity. Although the two indexes typically track similarly over time, the consumer confidence index is more influenced by employment and labor market conditions, while the Michigan sentiment index has a greater emphasis on household finances and the impact of inflation. The Michigan index’s preliminary reading for June, released earlier this month, showed sentiment levels were at a seven-month low.

Persons: Dana Peterson, ” Organizations: CNN, Conference Board, University of Michigan’s, Michigan Locations: Michigan

Nvidia’s fall to earthIt looks like another volatile day for Nvidia shareholders. And given the company’s enormous influence on the entire S&P 500, they may not be the only investors facing big swings. It closed Monday down roughly 16 percent from its intraday high on Thursday, shedding more than $550 billion in value — roughly the size of Tesla’s market capitalization — offering the markets a tough reminder that the A.I. Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Fed, warned Monday of a slowdown in the labor market hitting the U.S. economy. Another big piece of data comes out on Tuesday: The Conference Board is set to release its monthly consumer confidence index.

Persons: Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed, ” Organizations: Nvidia, San Francisco

☆ The stock market flips and tech falls out of favor — why this move may be hard to stop
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. The oil rally was certainly helping our lone energy stock, Coterra Energy, which was nearly 4% higher on Monday. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, —, Procter, Cramer, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Coterra Energy, Micron, Apple, Broadcom, Procter & Gamble, TJX Companies, Industrial, Honeywell, Gamble, Conference, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Dover

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