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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMixed data means ECB could take a cautious approach to further interest rate cuts, strategist saysEmmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays, discusses the European Central Bank’s highly anticipated monetary policy meeting and says that investors will be closely monitoring ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for clues on the expected number of interest rate cuts later in the year.
Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Christine Lagarde’s Organizations: Barclays, Central
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, April 11, 2024. The European Central Bank is widely expected to announce a reduction in interest rates at its meeting in Frankfurt on Thursday, despite lingering inflationary pressures in the 20-nation euro zone. The central bank's key rate has been at a record 4% since September 2023. A cut would be the ECB's first since September 2019, when the deposit facility was in negative territory. Canada on Wednesday became the first G7 nation to cut interest rates in the current cycle, while Sweden and Switzerland's central banks already announced their own rate reductions this year.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Wednesday Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Canada, Sweden
President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde arrives to address a press conference following the meeting of the governing council of the ECB in Frankfurt am Main, western Germany, on April 11, 2024. FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank this week is set to cut borrowing costs for the euro area for the first time since September 2019. It will mark the official end to the record fast-hiking cycle that begun after the Covid-19 pandemic as inflation soared higher. But investors' attention looks like it has already moved on to what will happen after this June cut by the Frankfurt institution. "Judging by the commentary from officials, there is no questioning of the wisdom of cutting rates on 6 June," said Mark Wall, ECB watcher with Deutsche Bank.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Mark Wall Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Deutsche Bank, ECB — Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT
Europe’s Fed Problem
  + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Andrew Ross Sorkin | Ravi Mattu | Bernhard Warner | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Thursday is a big day for the European Central Bank. It is widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, its first cut since 2019 — and outpace the Fed in lowering borrowing costs. The big questions on our mind: Will Christine Lagarde, the central bank’s president, signal further cuts at its July and September meetings? The good news: Economists say the era of elevated rates around the world is coming to an end. But they add that sticky inflation will tie central bankers’ hands, limiting their ability to lower borrowing costs much.
Persons: Will Christine Lagarde, Holger Schmieding, DealBook Organizations: European Central Bank, Berenberg Bank Locations: Brussels
Governor of the Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta (L), Italy's Minister of Economy and Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti (R) and President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde pose on the sidelines of the G7 Finance Ministers meeting in Stresa on May 24, 2024. Earlier this week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Sky News she saw the "possibility" that G7 nations could assist Ukraine with as much as $50 billion in loans linked to frozen Russian assets. "The Russian assets are not earning interest anymore, but they are generating returns for Euroclear. That alone could be given to Ukraine that would be repaid over several years by that flow of interest," Yellen added. It remains to be seen whether G7 nations can strike consensus on such a loan and what final sum will be extended to support Kyiv's military effort.
Persons: Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta, Finance Giancarlo Giorgetti, European Central Bank Christine Lagarde, Janet Yellen, Yellen Organizations: Bank of Italy, Italy's, Economy, Finance, European Central Bank, Ukraine, Treasury, Sky News, Euroclear Locations: Stresa, Italy, Ukraine
As much as $300 billion in Russian assets, frozen in the West since the invasion of Ukraine, is piling up profits and interest income by the day. Now, Europe and the United States are considering how to use those gains to aid the Ukrainian military as it wages a grueling battle against Russian forces. There has been a debate for months about whether it would be legal or even wise to confiscate the frozen assets altogether. They argue that confiscation would be a bad precedent, a violation of sovereignty and could lead to legal challenges, financial instability and retaliatory seizures of Western assets abroad. But proposals to seize and use the profits earned on those Russian assets — the interest on accumulated cash stemming from the sanctions, said Euroclear, a financial services company — are gaining considerable ground.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Euroclear Organizations: Russian, European Central Bank Locations: West, Ukraine, Europe, United States, Britain, France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia
BRUSSELS, Belgium — European diplomats have already started key negotiations on who will take the main jobs at the European Union following elections next month. Voters across the 27-member EU are heading to the polls between June 6 and 9 to choose the next set of representatives in the European Parliament. The very top EU jobs, which aren't directly elected, then get dished out in the weeks following. Diplomats within the EU are already trying to figure out who will be leading the three big institutions in the coming years: The European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament. "Von der Leyen has a lot of support from European heads of state," one of the three sources told CNBC via telephone.
Persons: aren't, Ursula von der Leyen, Von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European, Voters, EU, Parliament, Diplomats, European Commission, European Council, CNBC, European Central Bank Locations: BRUSSELS, Belgium, policymaking, Brussels
"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan
The prospect of the European Central Bank diverging from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts is likely to be "particularly negative" for the 20-nation euro zone, according to one economist. The ECB appears on course to cut interest rates in June, barring any major surprises, and recent inflation data has since bolstered the case for an imminent reduction in borrowing costs. It leaves the ECB firmly on track to cut interest rates before the Fed. "The problem of cutting rates right now is that the ECB takes for granted the strength of the euro . Lacalle said a June rate cut from the ECB was not going to make German, French or Spanish businesses take more credit "because a small rate cut is not the driver of credit demand."
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Daniel Lacalle, Gestion, CNBC's, Lacalle Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S
Currencies calm but cautious after a weary week
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Eyes are on the yen this week, with the Bank of Japan's, or BOJ, Friday policy review the notable item on the economic calendar. The yen has been one of the biggest losers against the dollar this year, with losses mounting to 9%. The ECB's Robert Holzmann, however, said the ECB probably will not cut rates this year as much as planned if the Fed does not move. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden alluded last week to Britain's inflation slowing as expected.
Persons: Chris Weston, Weston, Kazuo Ueda, BoE, ECB policymaker Madis Muller, Christine Lagarde, Robert Holzmann, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Sterling, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S ., Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Monetary Fund, Bank, Washington , Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB policymaker, ECB, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, East, Tehran, Iran, Washington, United States, Japan, South Korea, Washington ,, U.S
The ECB opted to hold rates steady in April and next meets to vote on monetary policy on June 6. Christine Lagarde, president of the ECBThe ECB's figurehead delivered a firm message that reflected her statements in recent press conferences: markets should expect an interest rate cut soon, barring major surprises. watch nowGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of IrelandMakhlouf said the most recent data sets had shifted his view on rates. "We don't follow the Fed... and now the ECB will be the central bank to be followed," Šimkus said. One could have cut rates way back in March or even April," he continued, adding that he hoped a majority of Governing Council members would back a June cut.
Persons: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Galhau, Villeroy, Karen Tso, Joachim Nagel, Germany's, Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Centeno, Gabriel Makhlouf, Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf, we've, Makhlouf, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Boris Vujčić, Jerome Powell, Vujčić, Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuania Šimkus, Šimkus, Edward Scicluna, Central Bank of Malta Scicluna, Kazāks, Bank of Latvia Kazāks, Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: Afp, Getty, International, European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB, Bank of France, Council, Austrian Central Bank One, Bank of Portugal, Central Bank of Ireland, National Bank of, Croatian National Bank, Federal, U.S, Bank of Lithuania, Central Bank of, Governing, Bank of Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, New York, ECB's, National Bank of Belgium, U.S, Europe, Central Bank of Malta, Bank of Latvia, Bank of Finland
European stock markets are set to open sharply lower Friday, rounding off a week in which escalating tensions in the Middle East and repricing of interest rate expectations have been in focus. After a strong start to 2024, the index is heading for its first monthly loss of the year in April. In the latest back-and-forth between the countries, Israel launched a limited direct military attack on Iranian soil early Friday morning. Investors are monitoring a slew of commentary on the path of interest rates emerging from the International Monetary Fund's Spring Meetings in New York. But markets have become significantly less confident there will be a June cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Bank of England, after two hotter-than-expected inflation prints.
Persons: François Villeroy de Galhau, Christine Lagarde Organizations: International, European Central Bank, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England Locations: Israel, New York
Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, , Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB President Christine Lagarde: EU growth will come from wage increases while inflation fallsCNBC's Sara Eisen speaks with ECB President Christine Lagarde to discuss whether the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates, how geopolitical developments have impacted commodity prices, and more.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Sara Eisen
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChristine Lagarde: ECB will cut rates soon, barring any major surpriseCNBC's Sara Eisen speaks with ECB President Christine Lagarde to discuss whether the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates, how geopolitical developments have impacted commodity prices, and more.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Sara Eisen Organizations: ECB
Those what-ifs could further roil gas and oil prices. But if there’s further conflict, he said, “you’d see a much higher premium for oil prices. If there’s a de-escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, they said, oil prices should come down over the next few weeks. But if there’s an escalation in conflict, they expect that oil prices could jump to more than $100 per barrel, they wrote in a note Monday. Retail sales rose 0.7% in March from the prior month, a slower pace than February’s upwardly revised 0.9% gain, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Persons: New York CNN —, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, Jerome Powell, We’ll, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Dave Sekera, Israel doesn’t, , , Moody’s, there’s, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean, Sam Salehpour, Read, Bryan Mena, Claire Tassin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow, JPMorgan, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Bank, Bank of Canada, Seven, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Morningstar, Nvidia, AMD, Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Boeing, Federal Aviation Administration, Alaska Airlines, Commerce Department, Morning, Amazon Locations: New York, Russia, Ukraine, China, United States, Washington ,, Iran, Israel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday said the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates in the near term, subject to any major shocks. Lagarde said the ECB would monitor oil prices "very closely" amid elevated fears of a spillover conflict in the Middle East. However, since Iran's unprecedented air attack on Israel over the weekend, she said the oil price reaction had been "relatively moderate." Her comments come shortly after the central bank gave its clearest indication to date that it could start cutting interest rates during its June meeting. The ECB on Thursday held interest rates steady at a record high for the fifth consecutive meeting, but signaled that cooling inflation means it could begin trimming soon.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Israel
The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates before the European Central Bank does, a former member of the Bank of England said, defying current market expectations. Investors are closely monitoring central bank moves on the back of a considerable reduction in inflation across major economies. So far, Switzerland was the first major economy to cut interest rates back in late March. Market players are currently pricing in a 92.8% chance that the ECB will cut rates in June from the historically high level of 4%, according to LSEG data. Her comments come just ahead of a European Central Bank meeting due on Thursday.
Persons: DeAnne Julius, Julius, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Monetary, CNBC, Tuesday, ECB, Federal Reserve Locations: Switzerland, U.S, United States
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), at a rates decision news conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on Thursday, March 7, 2024. The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting and gave its clearest signal yet of an upcoming rate cut, despite uncertainty over the U.S. Federal Reserve's next moves. In a press conference following the announcement, ECB President Christine Lagarde said this "important" new sentence was a "loud and clear indication" of the bank's current sentiment. The ECB made no direct reference to loosening monetary policy in its previous communiques. The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro currency hiked its key rate to a record 4% in September.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Hussain Mehdi Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, U.S . Federal, HSBC Asset Management Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S .
Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina has played a key role in stabilizing Russia's sanctions-hit economy. It's also aimed at the woman behind him: Elvira Nabiullina, the country's central bank governor, who plays a chief role in keeping Russia's wartime economy ticking. At the time, she was the first woman to lead a Group of Eight, or G8, central bank. In 2015, Euromoney, a finance trade publication, named Nabiullina Central Bank Governor of the Year. In December, she issued a warning that Russia's economy was at risk of overheating.
Persons: Elvira Nabiullina, , Putin, It's, Nabiullina, Daniel McDowell, McDowell, wined, Christine Lagarde, Nabiullina —, Richard Portes, Portes —, Portes, Anders Åslund, Åslund, Leo Tolstoy, Fyodor Dostoevsky, Franz Kafka, Yaroslav Kuzminov, Kuzminov, Nabiullina's, Alan Harvey, Herman Gref —, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Maxim Shemetov, Michel Camdessus, she's, isn't, Sergei Aleksashenko, Alexei Makarkin, Vladimir Pesnya, Nabiulina, let's Organizations: Ukraine, Service, Russian, KGB, Syracuse University, Kremlin, International Monetary Fund, US, London Business School, Moscow Times, Bloomberg, Higher School of Economics, , Moscow State University, SNS, USSR, Industrial Union Board, Gref, Central Bank Governor, Nabiullina Central Bank Governor, Banker, Central Banker, IMF, Monetary Fund, Financial Times, Government, Political Technologies, Wall Street Journal, RBC, Politico Europe Locations: Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Brussels, Nabiullina, Swedish, Moscow, Ufa, Central Russia, Tatars, Crimea, Euromoney, Europe, steadying
Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, at the ECB And Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on March 20, 2024. European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde on Wednesday reiterated that policymakers will consider bringing interest rates down in June, but sketched an uncertain path beyond that. "By June we will have a new set of projections that will confirm whether the inflation path we foresaw in our March forecast remains valid," Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt. Data available by June will also provide more insight into the path of underlying inflation and the direction of the labor market, according to Lagarde. So, there will be a period ahead where we need to confirm on an ongoing basis that the incoming data supports our inflation outlook."
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, ECB's
The European Central Bank must take its time to get interest rate cuts right and will have a clearer picture of inflationary pressures in June, the institution's chief economist told CNBC. Lane, also a Governing Council member, said the euro zone central bank's March meeting had been an "important milestone" in the accumulation of evidence, and showed the "disinflation process has been ongoing." During the meeting, the ECB held rates and released updated macroeconomic projections, which lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 2.3% from 2.7%. Inflation in the 20-nation bloc eased to 2.6% in February. In a press conference following the March meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said market pricing on the timing of rate cuts — which indicate a start in June as of Thursday — "seems to be converging better" with the central bank's view.
Persons: what's, we've, Philip Lane, Steve Sedgwick, Lane, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB
The European Central Bank on Thursday lowered its annual inflation forecast, as its confirmed a widely expected hold of interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde, meanwhile, suggested market pricing for a June rate cut was coming into line with policymakers' outlook. Looking ahead, staff see inflation hitting the ECB's 2% target in 2025 and cooling further to 1.9% in 2026. They meanwhile updated their forecast for economic growth for 2024 to 0.6% from 0.8%, as the euro zone's economic activity escapes its current stagnation. The ECB will be "laser-focused" on two areas of inflation that could surprise, namely wage growth and profit margins, Lagarde said.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB
The deadly strike marks a significant escalation of the Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and and comes despite a US-led naval coalition to protect the crucial waterway. Fewer ships appear to be transiting through the Red Sea and adjoining Suez Canal after the latest attack, according to maritime risks analytics company Windward. According to Windward, the number of bulk carriers anchoring outside ports to the north and south of the Suez Canal surged 225% Wednesday compared with the previous day. Windward data shows that last month the number of bulk carriers in the Red Sea was already at its lowest level in two years. Just 30% of the usual shipping capacity — including container ships, bulk carriers, car carriers, and tankers carrying oil and liquefied natural gas — is still passing through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, according to Sand.
Persons: Ami Daniel, , Peter Sand, , Hapag Lloyd —, Christine Lagarde, CMA CGM, Stephen Cotton, Cotton, David Ashmore, Reed Smith, John Stawpert, ” Maisie Linford Organizations: London CNN, Liberian, ” Windward, CNN, Maersk, MSC, European Central Bank, Drewry, CMA, International Transport Workers ’ Federation, International Chamber of Shipping Locations: Red Sea, Iran, Suez, Africa, Windward, Red, Norway, Sand, , London, Good, Gulf, Aden and Red, Aden
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks as she presents the bank's 2022 Annual Report to the European Parliament, in Strasbourg, eastern France, on February 26, 2024. FRANKFURT — The European Central Bank will meet again this week amid falling inflation, a slight recovery in economic activity and the overall understanding that its next interest rate move will be downward. The only question really for markets is, when will that happen? Some months ago, the markets were convinced that the March meeting will be "the one." The recent consumer price readings showed a slowdown of headline inflation to 2.6% in February, but service prices still rose by 3.9% for the month.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dirk Schumacher Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Strasbourg, France, FRANKFURT
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