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A banner plays up China's trade-in policy at a home goods expo in Qingdao, Shandong province, China, on June 1, 2024. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's plan to boost consumption by encouraging trade-ins has yet to show significant results, several businesses told CNBC. Analysts are not overly optimistic about the extent to which the trade-in program could support retail sales. China's retail sales for August are due Saturday morning. Retail sales in June rose by 2%, the slowest since the Covid-19 pandemic, while July sales growth saw a modest improvement at 2.7%.
Persons: Jens Eskelund, Tao Wang, Sally Loh, Otis, Kone, We've, Ilkka Hara, Hara Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, BEIJING, CNBC, EU Chamber of Commerce, UBS Investment Bank, China, U.S, Otis Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, China, Greater China
China may be delaying economic stimulus ahead of the US election, economist Rory Green says. Beijing is cautious due to potential Trump tariffs, which could impact growth in 2025. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementChina may be holding back on economic stimulus ahead of the US presidential election, an economist wrote on Thursday. This is because Beijing is keeping its powder dry in case Republican candidate Donald Trump wins in the November polls, wrote Rory Green, the chief China economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard.
Persons: Rory Green, , Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Service, GlobalData.TS Lombard, Business Locations: China, Beijing, GlobalData.TS
China's foreign trade still very resilient: DBS Bank
  + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's foreign trade still very resilient: DBS BankMo Ji, chief China economist at DBS Bank, expects August China trade data to moderate alongside the weakening of the country's economy.
Persons: Ji Organizations: DBS, DBS Bank Locations: China
Business Insider's Brent D. Griffiths has a rundown on everything you need to know heading into tonight . A newly released Times/Siena poll shows Trump holding just a one-point advantage over Harris among likely voters. For Trump, the focus will likely be the economy, which is a high priority for voters and also a sore spot for Harris. The latest Times poll showed Trump (55%) held a big advantage over Harris (42%) regarding who would be better equipped to handle the economy. Trump will also likely target Harris' biggest vulnerabilities , which may include trying to define her shifting views as disingenuous flip-flops, Brent writes.
Persons: , he'll, it's, Jose Luis Pelaez, Michael Ciaglo, Getty, Tom Williams, Tyler Le, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Insider's Brent D, Griffiths, Harris, BI's John L Dorman, Trump, Brent, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, BI's Bradley Saacks, It's, BI's Alice Tecotzky, Sébastien Thibault, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Sløk, Anson Chan, Brian Niccol, hasn't, Putin, Andrew Cuomo, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Milan Sehmbi, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Elon, Business, Jose Luis Pelaez Inc, Trump, BI Bitcoin, Arab League Locations: Philadelphia, Siena, Silicon Valley, China, America, Russia, Ukraine, Cairo, Israel, Gaza, New York, London
But the country could see growth pick up this fall, Goldman Sachs' chief China economist says. Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementAfter a long downturn, China's economy may be poised for a turnaround, Goldman Sachs says. Goldman's chief China economist Hui Shan pointed to fiscal easing, strong export momentum, and subsiding weather-related risks as reasons to believe the country's fortunes could soon change.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan, , Shan Organizations: Service, Business Locations: China
China has, in its own way, signaled it wants to support specific kinds of consumer purchases. Authorities on Thursday announced the equivalent of 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in special bonds would go towards trade-ins and equipment upgrades — a significant expansion of an existing program. The 300 billion yuan ultra-long bond issuance is not a new government allocation, but rather a more detailed designation of a 1 trillion yuan ultra-long bond program announced earlier this year. "300 billion yuan is the largest equipment upgrade subsidy from the central government historically," the analysts said. Even the 300 billion yuan figure is split roughly between consumer-related trade-ins with business-side equipment upgrades.
Persons: Ding, Morgan Stanley, Tao Wang, Darius Tang, Corporates, Fitch Bohua, Michael Bloom Organizations: China Asset Management Co, UBS Investment Bank Locations: China, Beijing, Asia
Investors in China now favor major banks: BofA
  + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors in China now favor major banks: BofAWinnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at BofA Securities, says China's major banks' earnings are "probably more predictable."
Persons: Winnie Wu Organizations: Investors, BofA Securities Locations: China
China surprises with cuts to key rates to support weak economy
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
China surprised markets by lowering a key short-term policy rate and its benchmark lending rates on Monday, in efforts to boost growth in the world's second-largest economy. Minutes later, China cut benchmark lending rates by the same margin at the monthly fixing. Following the rate cuts, China's yuan dropped to a near two-week low of 7.2750 per dollar before paring some losses. He expects more rate reductions in China after the Fed enters its rate cut cycle. China's rate cuts are aimed at "strengthening counter-cyclical adjustments to better support the real economy," the PBOC said in a statement.
Persons: Larry Hu, Ju Wang, Zhang Zhiwei, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: People's Bank of, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, Greater China FX, BNP, Federal Reserve, Xinhua, Fed Locations: People's Bank of China, Beijing, China
While it offered few clues on how to tackle economic difficulties, the meeting did provide further insight into a shake-up of high-level personnel over the past year. If past sessions are a guide, a more detailed report may be released in the following days, but for now, “the plenum communique is light on specifics,” Evans-Pritchard added. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy. Emphasizing short-term economic policies is rare in the history of the third plenums, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — China’s, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Julian Evans, Pritchard, Qin, Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, Jinming, Evans, , ” Evans, Mao, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Central, Defense, Liberation Army Rocket Force, of America, National Bureau, Statistics, Analysts, Macquarie Group Locations: Hong Kong, party’s, Beijing, China, policymaking, outflows, United States, Mao China
Chinese President Xi Jinping and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in 2017. "So this is not going to be a sustainable driver of growth for China." China's exports to the U.S. rose by a modest 1.5% in the first half of the year. Citi forecasts 5.0% growth in real GDP growth for China this year. UBS forecasts 4.9% growth for China's economy this year.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Artyom Ivanov, Goldman Sachs, Trump, JD Vance, Hui Shan, CNBC's, Janet Yellen, Vance, Biden, Mike Pence wouldn't, MAGA, Lin Jian, Goldman's Shan, Shan, Tao Wang Organizations: TASS, Getty, BEIJING, U.S, European, Citi, Fox News, Trump, Capitol, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNBC, UBS Investment Bank, UBS Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, European Union, Asia, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTrump presidency tariffs could be a 'major downside growth risk' for China, says Goldman SachsHui Shan, chief China economist of Goldman Sachs, says the implications for the macroeconomy are significant if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
Persons: Goldman Sachs Hui Shan, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump Organizations: Email, U.S Locations: China
CNBC Daily Open: Trump assassination attempt
  + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Trump assassination attemptThe attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday left one attendee and the gunman dead, and two more attendees in critical condition. Trump was grazed by a bullet and treated at a local hospital, but released late Saturday night. Dimon inflation warningJPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that inflation and interest rates may remain high despite recent easing in price pressures.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Thomas Matthew Crooks, Larry Hu, CNBC's Evelyn Cheng, Russell, CNBC's Michael Santoli, Wiz, Jamie Dimon, Dimon Organizations: CNBC, FBI, NBC, Macquarie, Communist Party of, Dow, Dow Jones, Depot, Caterpillar, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Wiz, Wall Street Journal, Sequoia Capital, Insight Partners, U.S Locations: Pennsylvania, Bethel Park, Pa, China's, Beijing, China, Communist Party of China, Israeli
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's real estate problems may be massive, but analysts expect the upcoming Third Plenum to focus on other areas — such as high local government debt levels and a push for advanced manufacturing. "For real estate markets, I don't think it should be a focus of the plenum, because it's already [in a] state that everyone has a consensus [on]," Wang said. watch nowIn his view, excessive growth of the financial sector was behind the hollowing out of the U.S. industrial sector. "Consequently we must constrain the financial industry, including real estate. That's the underlying reason for tightened regulations on both real estate and finance."
Persons: Larry Hu, Hu, Xi Jinping, Deng Xiaoping's, Dan Wang, She'll, it's, Wang, hasn't, Yao Yang, Yao, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Chinese Communist Party, Bloomberg, Getty, BEIJING, Communist Party of, Macquarie, CNBC, Central Committee, Communist Party, Party, President, Hang Seng Bank, HSBC, HSBC It's, Committee, China Center for Economic Research, Peking University, U.S, China Morning Post, Financial Regulatory Administration, World Bank, Big Data Locations: Communist Party of China, Beijing, China, United States, Big Data China
“What worries policymakers is the interest rate risk, which will rise once the dominant narrative shifts from deflation to reflation,” Hu from Macquarie said. If that happens, bond yields will rise as investors switch back into riskier stocks. The country’s “4,000 or so small and medium-sized banks” will be particularly vulnerable to the interest rate risk, he added. “The bubble formed by the rush of funds into the bond market is accumulating interest rate risks,” the Securities Times said in an editorial. Economic risksThe rapid decline in Chinese bond yields also poses significant risks to the economy.
Persons: , , Pan Gongsheng, SVB, Larry Hu, ” Hu, Macquarie, Hu, Zhang Jiqiang, Ken Cheung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, People’s Bank of China, prudential, , Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Zheshang Securities, Securities Times, Japan’s Norinchukin Bank, Huatai Securities, Mizuho Securities Locations: Hong Kong, Silicon, United States, Shanghai, China, Beijing, SVB, outflows
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPossible that the People's Bank of China deemphasizes MLF: Goldman Sachs economistHui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the Chinese central bank's decision to keep a key policy interest rate unchanged and the outlook for its monetary policy.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Hui Shan Organizations: People's Bank of China Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is now facing 'a tale of two economies': Morgan Stanley economistRobin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, says the country's inflation print is a "great example" of the economy's "unbalanced growth."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing Organizations: China Locations: China
Read previewNvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang is in Taiwan this week, where he's getting rockstar reception and boosting the stock market. The drills started on Thursday, but Taiwan's stock market was little changed over the period. "In this case, the AI equity theme, physical investment in AI, and the wider upturn in electronic component demand are driving robust Taiwanese growth and the strong stock market performance," wrote Green. He added that an outright invasion of Taiwan by China is "very unlikely" due to high military and economic risk. "If the macro backdrop is positive and China remains far from achieving 'fortress-like' economic conditions, future sell-offs may offer attractive buying opportunities," Green wrote.
Persons: , Jensen Huang, Huang, Li Xi, Morris Chang, Lisa Su —, Pat Gelsinger, Cristiano Amon, Rene Haas, Rory Green, It's, Green Organizations: Service, China's People's Liberation Army, Business, Local, rockstar, Asus, AMD, Qualcomm, Semiconductor, PLA, Investors, Philadelphia Stock Exchange, Nvidia Locations: Taiwan, China, Beijing, TSMC, Taipei, Taiwan's, GlobalData.TS, Ukraine, Russia
“The policymakers recognize the urgency to prevent an outright property crisis,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior China strategist at ANZ Research. According to Goldman Sachs, the total value of unsold homes, unfinished projects and unused land in China is about 30 trillion yuan ($4.1 trillion). On Friday, Tao Ling, deputy governor of the PBOC, said the relending program could eventually underpin 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of bank loans to support the buying. The Housing Ministry said Friday that local governments can instruct local state-owned enterprises to help purchase some unsold homes from developers. Just the beginningAddressing the oversupply of unsold homes is only the first step, experts say.
Persons: , Zhaopeng Xing, Goldman Sachs, it’s, Tao Ling, Ting Lu, Nomura, Helen Qiao, It’s, Tao, ” Jing Liu, Taylor Wang, Xing, Goldman, Donald Trump, Michelle Lam, Wei Yao, Société Générale Organizations: Hong Kong CNN —, ANZ Research, Goldman, People’s Bank of China, Greater China, Bank of America, Housing Ministry, HSBC, European Union Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hong Kong CNN — Beijing, Beijing, Greater, Société, Japan
A real estate construction site in Wanxiang City, Huai 'an City, East China's Jiangsu province, May 17, 2024. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's sweeping moves on Friday to increase support for real estate will take time to show results, analysts said. Despite the news, S&P is still sticking to its base case from earlier in the month that China's property market is likely still "searching for a bottom," Edward Chan, director, corporate ratings, said during the firm's webinar on Monday. But he pointed out that for real estate to see significant stabilization, homebuyers' demand and confidence will need to improve after a market downturn of nearly three years. "We believe Beijing is headed in the right direction with regard to ending the epic housing crisis," Nomura's Chief China Economist Ting Lu said in a report Monday.
Persons: Huai, Edward Chan, Ting, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Chief China Economist Hui Shan, Ting Lu, P's Chan Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, BEIJING, Chief China Economist, China Locations: Wanxiang City, City, East China's Jiangsu, Hong Kong, Beijing, Ting Lu, China
Hong Kong CNN —China has unveiled wide-ranging measures to rescue its property sector, including asking local governments across the country to buy unsold homes from beleagured developers and easing rules on purchases. In a coordinated move, the People’s China of China (PBOC) announced that it will set up a nationwide program to provide 300 billion yuan ($41.5 billion) in loans to fund state purchases of unsold homes. The 300 billion yuan provided by the central bank could eventually underpin 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of credit to support such purchases, she estimated. Expectations that Beijing was preparing a plan to have local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes have successfully buoyed China stocks. On Friday, He also urged local governments to buy back or directly purchase land that has been sold to developers but not yet used.
Persons: Lifeng, Tao Ling, Larry Hu, , Société Générale Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist, China Real Estate Business, Macquarie Group, Reuters, provident Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are more willing to see China as a 'glass half full story': StrategistWinnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at BofA Securities, says, however, that a "fundamental turnaround will be quite [a] long-term story."
Persons: Winnie Wu Organizations: BofA Securities Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailValuation levels for Chinese stocks are attractive, says Kinger LauKinger Lau, Chief China Strategist at Goldman Sachs, discusses the rally in China stocks over the past two months and where they still have more room to run.
Persons: Kinger Lau Kinger Lau, Goldman Sachs Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman Sachs says it remains positive on Hong Kong capital markets activityKinger Lau, chief China equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, says China is taking measures to encourage more initial public offering flows to Hong Kong.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Kinger Lau Locations: Hong Kong, China
The forum this year coincided with other efforts to attract foreign business. However, a combination of geopolitical tensions, regulatory uncertainty and slower economic growth have made it more challenging for foreign businesses in China. ... foreign companies share the same lack of confidence and worries about an uncertain future that is felt amongst much of China's domestic industry. Looking for economic clarityFor businesses considering China investment plans, the country's near-term growth outlook is another factor. He emphasized China's large market, industrial supply chain, and pointed out how China has worked on issues such as data exports and equal market treatment for foreign businesses.
Persons: Tim Cook, Management Dean Bai Chong, Xi Jinping, Stephen Schwarzman, Cristiano Amon, Mark Carney, Rajesh Subramaniam, Joe Biden, Carlos Gutierrez, Sean Stein, Gutierrez, Biden, Scott Kennedy, Peter Bachmann, Bachmann, Kennedy, Stephen S, Roach, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai, he's, China's, Han Zheng, Amin H, Nasser Organizations: Apple, China Development Forum, Tsinghua University School of Economics, Management, China News Service, Getty, U.S . Blackstone, Qualcomm, Bloomberg, FedEx, China, Cyberspace Administration, U.S, American Chamber of Commerce, of Commerce, Scott, Scott Kennedy Center for Strategic, Studies, China Centre, University of Applied Sciences, Arts Northwestern Switzerland, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Yale Law, Yale Law School's Paul Tsai China, Communist Party, Invest, CNBC, Aramco Locations: China, BEIJING, U.S, San Francisco, Beijing, Shanghai, Washington ,, Saudi
Retail sales rose 5.5%, better than the 5.2% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, while industrial production climbed 7%, compared with estimates of 5% growth. Investment into real estate fell by 9% in the first two months of the year from a year ago. National Bureau of Statistics Spokesperson Liu Aihua said that real estate remains in a period of "adjustment," according to a CNBC translation of his statement in Mandarin. New loans in February missed expectations and fell from the prior month, "even after adjusting for seasonality," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report Friday. Chinese authorities did not reveal significant new support for the massive real estate sector during an annual parliamentary meeting that ended last week.
Persons: Liu Aihua, Liu, Ting Lu, Goldman Sachs, Pan Gongsheng, Goldman Organizations: Pudong New, Investment, National Bureau of, CNBC, China, People's Bank of China, Reuters Locations: Dongyu, Qiantan, Pudong, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China, BEIJING, Real, Beijing
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