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U.S. debt drama and data hoist dollar
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar hit a two-week peak of 136.69 yen overnight and hovered just below that at 136.54 in the Asia day. Expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts any time soon were dampened by the solid increase in April consumer spending, and by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "A rate hike is possible this year, though the hurdle is high." The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6244, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate hike next week and perhaps one more after that.
Data and debt ceiling hoist dollar
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Data showed U.S. consumer spending appeared to have increased solidly in April, which together with hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials weighed on bonds and against expectations that interest rate cuts are coming soon. Interest rate futures pricing implies no chance of a rate cut in June, down from about a 17% chance seen a month ago. "Market participants continue to lower pricing for near term rate cuts by the FOMC," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "We expect some modest further increases in the dollar as markets continue to take out pricing for rate cuts. The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady at $0.6239, with investors looking ahead to a 25 bp interest rate next week and perhaps one more after that.
Asian shares on edge for China data, Fed speakers
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
On Monday, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) wobbled between losses and gains and was last up 0.1%. China is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. The yield on benchmark 10-year notes was little changed at 3.4588%, after rising 6 basis points on Friday, and two-year yields eased 2 basis points to 3.9830%, having also jumped 10 basis points in the previous session. U.S. crude futures eased 0.5% to $69.71 per barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 0.6% to $73.74 per barrel.
"But the still-high inflation and tight labour market also imply a high bar to rate cuts in the near term too." The U.S. dollar is oversold and the dollar index should move toward CBA's end-June target of 104 this week, Capurso said. The Japanese currency dipped at low as 136.03 per dollar before last trading flat at 135.80. The dollar was last up 0.31% at 19.64 Turkish lira after earlier jumping to 19.70 for the first time since March 10. The U.S. currency sank 0.65% to 33.76 baht in onshore Thai trading, and earlier dipped as much as 0.92%.
Asian shares braced for China data, Fed speakers
  + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Investors are keenly awaiting China's central bank rate decision on Monday. Market watchers polled by Reuters expect the medium-term policy rate to be left unchanged despite disappointing data last week that fuelled concerns about a global slowdown. The country is due to report monthly industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment data on Tuesday. Very much on investors' mind was the uncertainty about lifting the U.S. debt ceiling and the return of bank worries. Oil prices were trying to find a footing after tumbling nearly 2% last week on demand concerns.
Stocks stumble in jittery mood ahead of US inflation
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
S&P 500 futures were steady and European futures rose 0.1%. "That's the thing that'd get taken out if CPI numbers come in on the higher side," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "It doesn't look particularly sensible if inflation is falling at too slow a rate and that could feed through into higher longer-term treasury yields as well." Interest rate futures imply about a 60% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "But the debt ceiling drama, and market participants’ focus on rate cuts is unlikely to change much from one CPI report.
Morning Bid: Markets on hold for US CPI
  + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookSterling and the euro seem to be losing steam as currency markets tuck themselves in for a nap. Today's inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, could offer a jolt if the surprise factor is big enough. Economists polled by Reuters see core CPI steady at a monthly 0.4%. Beyond the inflation data, U.S. default risks and banking wobbles loom as the next likely focus. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:U.S. CPI dataReporting by Tom Westbrook; Editing by Edwina GibbsOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - Stocks were struggling to advance in Asia and the dollar was firm on Wednesday ahead of U.S. consumer price data that could damage hopes for interest rate cuts later this year if inflation fails to show much of a decline. Overnight the S&P 500 (.SPX) fell 0.5% and S&P 500 futures were steady in the Asian morning. A firm U.S. dollar pushed the euro back below $1.10 to $1.0971. Treasuries were broadly steady overnight, though debt-ceiling brinkmanship is warping the bills market as investors avoid bills maturing early in June. The dollar was also firm at 135.14 yen and has lifted slightly from recent lows on the Aussie , kiwi and sterling .
Dollar in defensive mood after jobs data; Fed in focus
  + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in Chicago on October 18, 2022. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, eased 0.029% to 101.820 after sliding 0.245% on Tuesday. "If the difference in rates between the two regions become clearer, DXY (dollar index) may fall below the 100 mark." The kiwi rose 0.35% versus the greenback to $0.623, while sterling was last trading at $1.2479, up 0.12% on the day. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.11% to 136.40 per dollar, clawing back some of its losses from last week when the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy.
Stocks ease; Aussie dollar soars after surprise hike
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"No one is going to want to do too much before we get to that FOMC decision. "One of the things that sticks out to me is that they're still saying they might need to increase interest rates," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso. "So as well as the increase today, that's supporting the Aussie dollar," he said. The U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies , while the euro eased 0.1% to $1.097. But markets are still anxious about what may be the next crisis, even if the initial response has been positive.
Stocks on edge, Aussie surges after RBA surprise
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Asian shares wobbled in cautious trade on Tuesday ahead of a series of data releases and central bank meetings, which began with a surprise rate hike in Australia that boosted the local dollar. Markets were positioned for Australia's central bank to stay on hold and a 25 basis point hike sent the Aussie dollar up about 0.8% to its highest in a week at $0.6692. Three-year Aussie government bond yields also jumped, while Australian stocks (.AXJO) slipped 0.7%. "So as well as the increase today, that's supporting the Aussie dollar," he said, though he warned that could unwind as there's a "reasonable chance" the Federal Reserve takes a similar approach at its meeting on Wednesday. Two-year Treasury yields , which track short-term U.S. rate expectations were steady at 4.1451% in Asia.
The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 after a 0.5% increase overnight. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.13% to 133.53 per dollar, after gaining about 0.4% on Tuesday. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% in April as the worries eased. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down to -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar slid to a six-week low of $0.6604 before settling down 0.3% at $0.6605 after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.
The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down at -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.
The U.S. dollar and the yen, both safe haven assets, were mostly steady after spiking higher overnight as renewed concerns over the U.S. banking sector and economy dented risk sentiment. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.
The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso. In other currencies, the Aussie was last 0.07% lower at $0.6738, while the kiwi fell 0.12% to $0.61705. Data out on Thursday showed that New Zealand's consumer price inflation was lower than expectations in the first quarter, though it remained near historic highs.
Bundles of U.S. 100 dollar banknotes arranged at the Shinhan Bank headquarters, a unit of Shinhan Financial Group Co., in Seoul, South Korea, Sept. 14, 2022. The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "The U.S. economy is heading to recession," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso.
Dollar dips ahead of key US inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
SINGAPORE, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that the U.S. central bank should be patient about raising interest rates in the face of recent banking sector stress.
Dollar dips ahead of key U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Five, ten, twenty, fifty and one hundred dollar bills spread outThe U.S. dollar slipped on Wednesday ahead of a closely-watched inflation reading later in the day that will provide clues on the path of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Following last week's solid U.S. jobs data, all eyes are now on the inflation report, with currency moves subdued ahead of the release. A Reuters poll of economists have forecast headline inflation in March to come in at 5.2% year-on-year, down from 6.0% previously, while core inflation likely ticked higher to 5.6%. "Powell has said numerous times he wants to see a downtrend in underlying inflation, but the data's not providing that yet. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he feels that the end of rate hikes may be near.
Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 for the first time since June. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the greenback against six major counterparts, including the yen - slipped 0.06% in early Asian trading, following a 0.39% advance at the start of the week. The consumer price index (CPI), due on Wednesday, will be the next major clue for Fed policy direction. The dollar index dropped to a two-month low of 101.40 on Wednesday. Bitcoin touched a fresh 10-month high at $30,000 in early Tuesday trade before last fetching $29,787, after breaking free of recent ranges on Monday.
The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, edged 0.08% higher to 102.57 in Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The weakness comes despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, also the result of ebbing demand for the safest assets. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.59% to 131.68 yen , and touched a one-week high of 131.80. The yen had dropped 0.5% the previous day, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields.
Dollar on the defensive as banking fears ebb; yen drops
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
In this photo illustration, US 100 dollar bills seen on an American flag. The dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, was flat in early Asian trading, following drops of about 0.3% in each of the past two sessions. The yen remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. The dollar jumped 0.51% to 131.59 yen , erasing all of the previous day's 0.5% decline, when it uncharacteristically moved in the opposite direction with long-term U.S. Treasury yields. The token had dipped as low as $26,541 on Monday, after its retreat from a nine-month high of $29,380 last week.
Futures imply a 72% chance the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on March 22. The spotlight will be firmly on the February jobs report scheduled for Friday and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Citi strategists expect Powell to indicate a preference for a 25 bps hike but leave all options on the table, since he will speak before the jobs data are released. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.01% to 135.85 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.203, down 0.08% on the day. In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 6.9072 per dollar and was last changing hands at 6.9067.
Dollar finds footing as focus turns to Europe inflation
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar lost 0.9% on the euro on Wednesday, its sharpest drop in a month. It was about 0.2% firmer on the euro on Thursday, with the common currency at $1.0649 in Asia trade ahead of inflation data due at 1000 GMT. The New Zealand dollar which rose 1.2% on Wednesday, fell 0.4% on Thursday to $0.6230. China's yuan settled back to 6.8928 to the dollar after logging its biggest jump of 2023 on Wednesday. Besides European inflation, euro zone employment and central bank minutes are due later in the day, as is U.S. jobless claims data.
Dollar squeezed as inflation drives up euro
  + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Euro zone inflation data is due later in the day. The yen hardly budged but the dollar made broad falls on Asian currencies as it retreats from recent highs. On Thursday the yen was a tad stronger at 136.04 to the dollar in early trade while the Australian dollar held Wednesday gains made despite softer-than-expected growth data and some hints that inflation may have peaked. "We consider the Australian dollar can increase materially in the weeks after China's Two Sessions meetings," he said. Besides European inflation, euro zone employment and central bank minutes are due later in the day, as is U.S. jobless claims data.
SINGAPORE, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The dollar found some support on Wednesday after stubbornly high U.S. inflation suggested interest rates are going to remain high for longer than investors had expected. The U.S. dollar climbed to a six-week high of 133.30 yen and sat not far below that at 132.73 early in the Asia session. "Inflation remains too high," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso said. There is not much good news for (the Fed) that is looking for inflation to head down much further towards its 2% target." Federal Reserve officials said the U.S. central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation.
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