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Looking ahead, the ongoing pass-through of the European Central Bank's monetary policy tightening, still no reversal of the inventory cycle and new geopolitical uncertainties will continue weighing on the German economy, Brzeski said. "The German economy looks set to remain in the twilight zone between minor contraction and stagnation not only this year but also next year," Brzeski said. The contraction in the third quarter is not seen as an outlier as Commerzbank expects the German economy to contract again in the winter half-year. Economists will pay close attention to national inflation data from Germany and Spain, as they are published one day before the euro zone inflation data release. Euro zone inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in October from 4.3% in September, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Persons: Arnd, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, optimists, Joerg Kraemer, Claus Vistesen, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Miral Fahmy, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Gross, Reuters, ING, European Central, Macroeconomics, Thomson Locations: Konstanz, Germany, Spain

In Europe, inflation peaked at a painful 10.6% in October for the 20 countries that use the euro currency as Russia's war in Ukraine took a toll. But with inflation now down to 4.3%, analysts expect the ECB to hold off on more hikes during its meeting in Athens. Political Cartoons View All 1218 ImagesSurveys of purchasing managers by S&P Global indicate that economic activity fell in October. Its biggest economy, Germany, is forecast by the International Monetary Fund to shrink by 0.5% this year, making it the world's worst performing major economy. “The ECB won’t be in any rush to take further action,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING bank.

Persons: hasn't, ”, Carsten Brzeski, Christine Lagarde, aren't Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Union, ABN Amro, International Monetary Fund, IMF, “, ECB won’t, ING Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Israel, Europe, Ukraine, Athens, Frankfurt, Russia, East, Iran

ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany

REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Industrial output down 0.2% in Aug vs down 0.1% forecastEconomists expect further contraction in coming monthsBERLIN, Oct 9 (Reuters) - German industrial output shrank in August for the fourth consecutive month, the federal statistics office said on Monday, an indication that the sector remains under serious pressure, stoking recession fears. Industrial production fell slightly more than expected in August by 0.2% compared to the previous month. The further drop in German industrial production in August was better than it looked as it was driven by volatile components, said Franziska Palmas, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics. However, she continued to expect high interest rates and falling demand to lead to a further contraction in German industrial output in the coming months. "Thin order books despite last week's increase, and high inventories all indicate that German industrial production will continue moving sideways rather than gaining momentum anytime soon," ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski said.

Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Franziska Palmas, Destatis, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Friederike Heine, Maria Martinez, Ozan Ergenay, Gerry Doyle, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: ThyssenKrupp, Duisburg, Germany, BERLIN, Europe, Palmas

☆ Germany risks letting a good crisis go to waste
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Pierre Briancon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Germany, the European Union’s largest economy and its traditional growth engine, is headed towards a contraction this year. Exports account for more than half of Germany’s GDP, compared to just a third in France and 37% in Italy, according to the World Bank. Germany’s growth potential is estimated at an annual 0.7% over the medium term by the Scope rating agency, about half the euro zone average. Exempting net public investment from the debt brake rule would help to reverse years of underspending. Unless they do, Europe’s leading economy risks letting a good crisis go to waste.

Persons: –, Hubertus Bardt, Germany’s, Carsten Brzeski, Oliver Rakau, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner’s, Sebastian Dullien, Scholz, Destatis, Francesco Guerrera, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, World Bank, EU, International Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, German Economic Institute, ING, Oxford Economics, BASF, Finance, Christian Democrats, Thomson Locations: Germany, Berlin, France, Italy, China –, Spain, Weimar Republic, China, Ukraine

☆ German inflation falls to lowest level since start of Ukraine war
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Fabian Bimmer/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Sept 28 (Reuters) - German inflation fell in September to its lowest level since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, signalling what could be the beginning of the end for the high inflation that has weighed heavily on Europe's largest economy. Germany's core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.6% year-on-year from 5.5% in August. Meanwhile, five economic institutes predict Germany's economy will shrink by 0.6% this year, as rising interest rates take their toll on investment and still high inflation depresses consumption. The ECB is keeping a close eye on euro zone inflation data, with September's reading due to be published on Friday. Spain earlier reported a 3.2% harmonised inflation rate for September.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Ralph Solveen, ING's Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine, Kirsten Donovan, Alison Williams Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Union, Reuters, ECB, Central, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Russia, Ukraine, Spain

European markets opened lower Monday as investors reflected on a spate of central bank decisions last week and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.3% in early trade, with all sectors in negative territory. The Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank opted to pause their interest rate hiking cycles last week, in contrast to the "dovish hike" delivered by the European Central Bank on Sept. 14. Elsewhere, U.S. stock futures edged higher in overnight trading, set to enter the last week of trading in September with big losses. Stocks stateside have struggled this month as the Federal Reserve signaled higher interest rates for longer, sending bond yields rising.

Persons: Carsten Brzeski Organizations: Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ING, CNBC, Stocks, Federal Reserve

☆ Central banks across Europe pause for breath after mammoth rate hike run, but face 'triple dilemma'
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

U.K. pauseThe Bank of England opted to pause interest rate moves after 14 straight hikes, keeping its main policy rate at 5.25%. The decline came despite interest rate hikes generally boosting the value of a currency. Scandinavian inflationIn northern Europe, Norway and Sweden opted for rate hikes on Thursday and suggested that further tightening could be ahead. Norway's headline inflation rate was 4.8% in August, with core inflation at 6.3%. The Norges Bank forecast now indicates a policy rate of 4.5% through 2024, up from the current 4.25%.

Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, BoE, Alastair Grant, ALASTAIR GRANT, Carsten Brzeski, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Paul Dales, Simon French, Panmure Gordon, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Ida Wolden Bache, Bache Organizations: Bank of England, The Bank of England, Getty, Afp, ING, CNBC, of England, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Panmure, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, Norway's Norges Bank, Norges Bank Locations: London, U.K, Paul, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Norway's

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy

☆ The US dollar is king again. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

London CNN —The US dollar is enjoying its longest winning streak in nearly nine years. The rally comes after months of volatility, fueled by concerns that the dollar may be losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. “Rumors of the US dollar’s demise continue to be greatly exaggerated,” James Athey, investment director at Abrdn, an asset manager, told CNN. Higher interest rates tend to boost the value of a country’s currency by attracting more foreign capital, as investors anticipate making bigger returns. “The US economy continues to surprise to the upside,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN.

Persons: ” James Athey, ” Athey, ” Carsten Brzeski, ” Brzeski, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Sheldon Cooper, “, ” Alex Cohen Organizations: London CNN, CNN, Federal Reserve, ING, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of America Global Research, People’s Bank of Locations: Saudi Arabia, United States, China, Europe, Germany, Russia, People’s Bank of China

Two of them - Norway and United Kingdom - delivered a total of 50 basis points of rate hikes in the lowest such tally since January. Turkey delivered a super-sized 750 bps rate rise in August while Russia lifted its benchmark by 350 bps and Thailand added 25 bps. "Major central banks will maintain a restrictive policy stance through 2024," said Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president strategy and research at Moody's. "Significant easing by emerging market central banks is unlikely with advanced economy central banks still battling elevated inflation, and uncertainty around the U.S. interest rate outlook." Emerging markets interest ratesReporting by Karin Strohecker and Vincent Flasseur Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jason Lee, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Costa, Madhavi Bokil, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Norway, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Central, United Kingdom, Australia, New, China, Europe, Chile, Costa Rica, Uruguay, Thailand

☆ German exports fall less-than-expected 0.9% in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Phil Noble/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Sept 4 (Reuters) - German exports fell a less-than-expected 0.9% in July from a month earlier as global demand continued to falter, data from the federal statistics office showed on Monday. "Trade is no longer the strong resilient growth driver of the German economy that it used to be, but rather a drag," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomics at ING. Imports rose 1.4% on the month, the data showed. German export expectations have deteriorated slightly due to weak foreign demand, an Ifo survey showed in August. "As long as the global economic environment remains weak, German exports will also remain depressed," said Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank.

Persons: Phil Noble, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Bastian Hepperle, Hauck Aufhaeuser Lampe, Thomas Gitzel, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Alex Richardson, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, ING . Supply, European Union, VP Bank, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, China, Hauck

Specifically, she outlined puzzlement at why the inflation-adjusted risk-free rates priced by markets - real Overnight Index Swap yields from one to 10 years - had subsided again since the last ECB rate hike in July - back to where they were in February when ECB policy rates were just 2.5%. Long-term real yields from benchmark German government bond markets are positive again this year for the first time in almost a decade. But they have fallen almost 20bp from just before the last ECB rate hike to just above 0.1% now. Minutes released today from the last ECB meeting suggest the council is still undecided about its next step this month, but many market analysts see the tension building. ECB chart from Isabel Schnabel speech on rising market inflation premiaReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, It's, Carsten Brzeski, Josie Kao Organizations: Central Bank, disinflation, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, ING, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, U.S

With average house prices having surged 25% during the COVID-19 pandemic, higher interest rates and higher living costs in a struggling economy have driven many to rent while they anticipate house prices will fall. All but one predicted prices would fall this year. House prices were forecast to stagnate next year, an upgrade compared to the 2.0% fall predicted three months ago. That comes after many years of close to zero and negative policy interest rates following the global financial crisis and during the pandemic. Eleven of 14 respondents said rental affordability would worsen over the coming year.

Persons: Thomas Peter, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Sebastian Schnejdar, Indradip Ghosh, Anitta Sunil, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Barbara Lewis Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Housing, ING, European Central Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, Europe's

☆ Market reactions to Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, “, ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO

The Ifo institute said on Friday that its business climate index stood at 85.7, down from 87.4 in July. Reuters Graphics"The German economy is not out of the woods yet," Ifo president Clemens Fuest said. The economy then posted zero growth in the second quarter compared to the previous three months, separate data from the statistics office showed on Friday. The Ifo survey showed sentiment among German managers had become more pessimistic across all sectors in August. The Ifo survey chimed with flash PMI data released on Wednesday, which showed that German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August.

Persons: Annegret, Clemens Fuest, Christian Lindner, Klaus Wohlrabe, Claus Niegsch, Niegsch, Andrew Kenningham, Carsten Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Mark Potter, John Stonestreet Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, . Finance, DZ Bank, Reuters Graphics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BERLIN, Europe

☆ Why some are calling the German economy 'the sick man of Europe'
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —It’s been nearly two decades since Germany shrugged off its “sick man of Europe” label with a series of labor market reforms that ushered in years of economic outperformance. Sticky inflation and three straight quarters of falling or stagnating output have put Europe’s biggest economy in the doldrums. “Sticky” inflation is eroding Germans’ purchasing power, fueling “pessimism among households,” according to Thomas Obst, senior economist at the Cologne Institute for Economic Research. “[German] industrial order books have emptied over the last 12 months,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN. “Germany is in a very singular position.”Bright spotsHolger Schmieding, the economist who first called Germany the “sick man of Europe” in 1998, thinks the “current wave of pessimism” over its economy is overdone.

Persons: London CNN — It’s, Stefan Kooths, Europe ”, Kooths, Thomas Obst, Obst, ”, Klaus Wohlrabe, Frank Soellner, ” Carsten Brzeski, Sam Reeves, Brzeski, David Hecker, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, “ Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Kiehl Institute, Cologne Institute, Economic Research, CNN, European Central Bank, ifo, Volkswagen, Siemens, Global, ING, Getty, China Locations: Germany, Europe, Berlin, ifo, Bad, China, Duisburg, AFP, Ukraine, Australia, France

☆ Germany is struggling to move away from its ‘sick man of Europe’ image
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Germany was first described with that moniker in 1998 as the country navigated the costly challenges of a post-reunification economy. The issues weighing on Germany's economy can be separated into "two very separate battles," Stefan Kooths, research director for business cycles and growth at the Kiel Institute for World Economy, told CNBC. "It is a different sickness [compared to] 20 years ago," Brzeski told CNBC. Energy obstaclesLike most of Europe, Germany's energy prices have been volatile following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "Many Germany-headquartered businesses are doing well globally, but they are struggling with operations in their own country," Siegfried Russwurm, head of the German Industry Federation, told CNBC in June.

Persons: DANIEL ROLAND, aren't, it's, Holger Schmieding, Schmieding, Jasmin Groeschl, Stefan Kooths, Carsten Brzeski, China's, Brzeski, Groeschl, Joerg Kraemer, Kooths, Siegfried Russwurm Organizations: Frankfurt Cathedral, AFP, Getty, International Monetary Fund, Berenberg, CNBC, Europe, Allianz, Kiel Institute, World, ING Research, German Industry Federation Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, France, China, Kiel, Ukraine

☆ Analysis: ECB is on back foot and for once it's down to Germany
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) is pictured outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, April 26, 2018. This is forcing a change of tune at the ECB -- from ruling out a pause in its steepest and longest streak of interest rate hikes to openly talking about one as soon as next month. Higher borrowing costs hurt manufacturers particularly hard because they depend on investment and no euro zone country has a larger industrial sector than Germany. "They've made a mistake in accentuating underlying inflation too much," said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro for ING Research, said. And ECB board member Fabio Panetta then made the case for "persistence" in keeping rates high rather than raising them further.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Richard Portes, It's, Emperor Nicholas I of Russia, Ralph Solveen, Portes, They've, Carsten Brzeski, Ricardo Reis, Fabio Panetta, Francesco Canepa, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, ECB, London Business School, Berlin, ING Research, London School of Economics, ABN, AMRO, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT, Greece, Italy, China, Russia, United States, Portugal, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus, Europe, Ottoman Empire, Ukraine

☆ ECB is on back foot and for once it's down to Germany
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Francesco Canepa | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

☆ Analysis: China's importance to German exporters on the wane
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China's emergence as a market economy in the 2000s provided a massive boost to German companies and has proved a big contributor to the overall health of the German economy since. That China is increasingly able to produce goods it previously bought from Germany is weighing on German exports, Brzeski noted. However, the dependence of many companies on the Chinese market will no longer be so visible in export figures, but in their balance sheets," Stamer said. For example, many German carmakers are increasingly producing locally for the Chinese market. Weaker demand from China has had a strong impact on the German manufacturing sector.

Persons: Fabian Bimmer, Joerg Kraemer, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Vincent Stamer, Stamer, Rene Wagner, Maria Martinez, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, ING, Reuters Graphics Germany, Kiel Institute, PMI, Thomson Locations: Bremerhaven, Germany, China, BERLIN, Berlin, Beijing, U.S, United States

☆ German economy faces uphill climb as industrial output falls
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, July 7 (Reuters) - A swift economic recovery for Germany appeared less likely on Friday as data showed a surprise fall in industrial production. Output fell by 0.2% in May compared with the previous month, the federal statistical office said. The industrial production data was a reminder of the uphill climb in Europe's biggest economy if it is to shake off recession, after a surprise increase in May orders fuelled some optimism on Thursday. "We may just see stagnation in the second quarter, but much more likely a renewed decline in economic output," he added. The office offers a breakdown of the data on industrial production on its website.

Persons: Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Jens, Oliver Niklasch, Anna Mackenzie, Rene Wagner, Rachel More, Miranda Murray Organizations: Reuters, ING, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Germany, Ukraine

☆ German inflation bucks downward trend in June with higher-than-expected rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Maria Martinez | Thomson Reuters | Maria Martinez Is A Reuters Correspondent In Berlin Covering German Economics | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

French and euro zone inflation data is due on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect euro zone inflation to fall to 5.6% in June from 6.1% in May. "The June figures in Germany only interrupt the downward trend in the inflation rate and do not mark its end," said Ralph Solveen, senior economist at Commerzbank. Non-harmonized consumer prices rose 6.4% in June year-on-year, following a 6.1% rise in the previous month. The year-on-year rebound in German inflation midway through the second quarter is almost exclusively due to base effects from last year's temporarily-reduced rail fare, said Claus Vistesen, chief eurozone economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Persons: Analysts, Ralph Solveen, year's, Claus Vistesen, Carsten Brzeski, Commerzbank's Solveen, Brzeski, Maria Martinez, Friederike Heine, Miranda Murray, Angus MacSwan, Conor Humphries Organizations: Union, Reuters, Commerzbank, Pantheon, European Central Bank, ING, Economists, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, Spain, Italy, Germany

☆ Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe

☆ Rate cuts, hikes and pauses: The world's central banks just made very different decisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

From hawkish pauses to rate hikes and dovish tones, the world's biggest central banks last week struck very different tones on monetary policy. The European Central Bank on Thursday hiked rates and surprised markets with a worsening inflation outlook, which led investors to price in even more rate increases in the euro zone. This followed a Federal Reserve meeting where the central bank decided to pause rate hikes. Just days before that, China's central bank lowered its key medium-term lending rates to stimulate the economy. In Japan, where inflation is above target, the central bank has left its ultra-loose policy unchanged.

Persons: Carsten Brzeski, —, Erik Nielsen, UniCredit Organizations: European Central Bank, Reserve, ING Germany, CNBC, ECB, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Europe, Asia

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