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Visitors cast their shadows past the logo of Google at the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France, June 15, 2023. "The payments that Google makes reflect that competition," he said. Murphy also argued that the payments to device makers and others were often passed through to users in the form of a cheaper phone or better data plan. Further, Murphy argued that while Microsoft had virtually all the preinstalled browser defaults in early 2010s, its Bing search engine got just 15% of search queries. Reporting by Diane Bartz Editing by Marguerita ChoyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Kevin Murphy, Apple, Murphy, Diane Bartz, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Google, Viva Technology, Porte de, REUTERS, Microsoft, Apple, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Big Tech, Thomson Locations: Porte, Paris, France, WASHINGTON

A woman holds her smart phone which displays the Google home page, in this picture illustration taken February 24, 2016. Google's vice president and general manager of ads, Jerry Dischler, acknowledged that Google earned more than $100 billion in 2020 from search ads. GOOGLE'S DEFENSE NO. GOOGLE'S DEFENSE NO. GOOGLE DEFENSE NO.

Persons: Eric Gaillard, Sundar Pichai, Kevin Murphy, Apple, Joshua Lowcock, Jerry Dischler, Eddie Cue, Bing, John Schmidtlein, Google's, Jennifer Fitzpatrick, Diane Bartz, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Google, Justice Department, Verizon, Samsung, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Microsoft, UM Worldwide, Nokia, Bing, GOOGLE, Core Systems, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON

☆ The Fed is unlikely to hike rates 'much more': Former Chicago Fed governor
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is unlikely to hike rates 'much more': Former Chicago Fed governorRandall Kroszner, professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, says "at most, they'll do one more rate hike."

Persons: Randall Kroszner Organizations: Former Chicago Fed, University of Chicago Booth School of Business

☆ Oil and food prices are rising, and so are wages. Inflation isn’t beaten yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Oil and food prices have jumped in recent weeks, and wages are still growing strongly in some of the world’s biggest economies. The UN global Food Price Index rose in July, notching only the second monthly increase in a year of steady declines. Oil supply cutsGlobal oil prices have shot up in recent weeks. The International Energy Agency has forecast that global oil demand will rise to a record 102 million barrels this year. Rising oil prices have spurred a jump in US gasoline prices, which hit an average of $3.82 a gallon Tuesday.

Persons: ” Randall Kroszner, “, Price, Chris Ratcliffe, Richard Bronze, ”, —, unraveled, ” Kroszner, — “, Michelle Bowman Organizations: London CNN, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, US Federal Reserve System, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, CNN, UN, Bloomberg, Getty, West Texas Intermediate, International Energy Agency, OPEC, Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Capital Economics, “ Labor, Bank Locations: Ukraine, United States, United Kingdom, Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Moscow

☆ A Delaware city wants to let businesses vote in its elections. It just cleared a key hurdle, but it’s faced pushback
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Letting businesses vote in municipal elections dilutes the voice of the citizenry and “puts the idea that corporations are people on steroids,” said its executive director, Claire Snyder-Hall. Seaford proposal meets resistanceThe latest Delaware municipality to propose letting businesses vote in its local elections is the city of Seaford, with roughly 8,500 residents. Grenshaw said he never expected that to be a problem, since four other municipalities had no trouble getting approval for their decision to let businesses vote in the past. How influential could that be in future Seaford elections? The city clerk’s office would conduct a series of annual cross-checks to ensure that a business currently owns property in the city.

Persons: “, ”, Claire Snyder, Seaford Mayor David Grenshaw, ” Grenshaw, Grenshaw, Snyder, Hal Weitzman, Weitzman Organizations: CNN, Hall, DuPont, Seaford Mayor, Verizon, Delaware General Assembly, The News, Rich, University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, Fortune Locations: United States, Delaware, Seaford, it’s, America

☆ Opinion | The End of Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness Is ‘a Five-Alarm Fire’
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

I don’t know whether the Supreme Court’s decision on student loan forgiveness on Friday was right or wrong on legal grounds. I do know that it will most likely cause a lot of delinquencies and defaults. Many borrowers simply don’t have the money to repay. And while they were free to keep paying down their student loans if they wanted to, they mostly did not. “I’m really concerned about a wave of delinquencies and defaults once payments resume,” Yannelis told me.

Persons: Constantine Yannelis, Biden, “ I’m, ” Yannelis, ” Organizations: University of Chicago Booth School of Business

☆ How safe are America’s biggest banks? The Fed’s imminent stress tests may offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

That’s because no stress test scenario could perfectly predict the conditions that would cause a bank to collapse. And besides, that’s not the purpose of stress tests, said Covas, a former Fed economist who developed some of the central bank’s early stress tests. The test scenarios were designed before the banking crisisFed officials update the stress test scenarios each year to capture the latest vulnerabilities in the economy. It’s a misconception that “if no bank fails these stress tests are not useful,” or the tests were too easy, Covas said. “You really don’t need a stress test to figure out that SVB had some significant issues,” he added.

Persons: Francisco Covas, that’s, Covas, “, ”, João Granja, they’ve, SVB Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Bank Policy Institute, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank, CNN Locations: New York, Silicon

☆ The message top corporate CFOs are sending directly to Fed presidents isn't a bullish one
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Fed remains focused on the labor market and cooling wage growth while raising unemployment as the key to bringing hot services inflation down. "I shared with him [a regional Fed president] that they should stop, not pause," said another CFO on the call. "The consumer is being smart," the CFO said, but the Fed focus on bringing unemployment up can break the consumer. "I gave this message to him [a Fed president]: we can manage through this with unemployment below 4%." CFOs said the labor market remains tight and the wage gains, while slowing, have created a higher wage base which can't be turned back.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Drew Angerer, That's, Wall, Randy Kroszner, CFOs, Sara Eisen, Kroszner, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Fed, CNBC, CNBC Fed Survey, Chatham House, Corporations, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Washington ,

☆ Debt ceiling crisis: How a US default would ricochet around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.

☆ Sales, spins and splits — what are the differences and why do they matter for investors like us?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +20 min

Investors may get one share in the spun-out entity for every share of the parent company they owned. What's left of J & J will be focused on pharmaceuticals and medical technologies, which were responsible for over 84% of the company's total 2022 revenue of $94.94 billion. It underscores that once free of the parent company tethers a divested company can chart its own destiny. Those priorities may not have necessarily been wrong when considering J & J as the overall enterprise. We believe J & J and Danaher are poised to deliver two more examples.

☆ How Elon Musk upended Twitter and his own reputation in 6 months as CEO
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Clare Duffy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

But it’s not clear just how and when Musk might return Twitter to growth. Musk’s primary plan to grow Twitter’s business through an overhauled subscription strategy has resulted in much chaos but only a limited number of actual subscriptions. In the process, Musk has also upended his own reputation. Disrupting the digital town squareFor years, what differentiated Twitter from other social platforms was that it served as a central hub for real-time news. Tesla (TSLA) shareholders recently complained to the company’s board that Musk appears “overcommitted.”“His reputation has been diminished significantly with Twitter … and once you lose it, it’s very difficult to recover,” Klepper said.

Her comments were echoed by others who feel the narrative shared by three top central banks of relatively cost-free disinflation rests on shaky ground. Among the Fed, ECB and BoE, only the British central bank projects a recession will be needed to slow inflation - only a mild one at that. U.S. central bank officials have split the difference, projecting a modest one-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate this year from its near-historic low of 3.5%, and slow, but continued, economic growth. Martins Kazaks, Latvia's central bank chief, said the risk of a recession was still "non-trivial," with a host of factors still putting pressure on prices. For the Fed, different policymakers offer different ideas about the forces that will lower inflation as high interest rates slowly cool demand.

☆ European markets expected to open higher after bank lifelines eased crisis fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan thinks it's still too early to tell whether the U.S. rescue plan to stem bank contagion risks has worked. "I think what's happened so far, in terms of the rescues, is sort of done the first aid. The question is — is there a slow bleed that is still going on," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia." Rajan, now a professor of finance at The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, noted questions remain around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. "How come a mid-size bank was oblivious of interest rate risk?"

☆ Silicon Valley Bank: What experts think of US regulators response to the fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSilicon Valley Bank: What experts think of US regulators response to the falloutAaron Klein, senior fellow in economic studies at The Brookings Institute, Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and David Bahnsen, founder and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's response to the SVB fallout, bank market risk, and the contagion effect from SVB.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Raghuram Rajan, David Bahnsen and Aaron Klein
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Raghuram Rajan, David Bahnsen and Aaron KleinAaron Klein, senior fellow in economic studies at The Brookings Institute, Raghuram Rajan, professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and David Bahnsen, founder and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the Fed's response to the SVB fallout, bank market risk, and the contagion effect from SVB.

☆ Food is getting cheaper. But not for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Danielle Wiener-Bronner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

When food producers started raising prices a few years ago, they blamed their own costs, including higher ingredient prices. Many food companies are forecasting that they might slow down or pause price increases — but not lower them. But ingredients typically make up a small portion of overall food costs. Companies are maintaining elevated prices, or continuing to increase them, at a time when many Americans are already struggling to pay for food, especially as pandemic-era food stamp benefits expire. So people keep buying food at the grocery store, despite higher prices — giving producers an opportunity to convince retailers that those higher prices won’t drive customers away.

☆ Corporations are keeping food expensive because they can
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

To be sure, food manufacturers have to factor in costs of labor and transportation, which remain elevated compared with a few years ago. Anyway, it isn’t just food companies taking advantage of the inflationary moment. Many food companies are forecasting that they might slow down or pause price increases — but not lower them, Danielle explains. But [companies] have, I think, taken price increases that exceed that,” said Mark Lang, an associate professor of marketing at the University of Tampa who specializes in food marketing. Lower prices could, for example, make people think food quality has gone down — or make them think they were paying too much in the first place.

☆ Fed should look at how to efficiently support markets in times of stress -Bowman
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 3 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should consider how to most efficiently support financial markets in times of strained liquidity using information it has gleaned from its interventions at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Friday. The U.S. central bank should explore how "to minimize the Fed's footprint and amount of asset purchases needed to restore market functioning" in times of severe stress, Bowman said in prepared remarks at a conference organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business at which she was moderating a panel on market dysfunction in global financial markets. Bowman did not comment on her outlook for the U.S. economy or monetary policy in her brief speech. The Fed's targeted purchase of affected assets to quickly support financial market functioning, as occurred in Treasury markets in the spring of 2020, also meant "a key issue for central banks to consider is how to clearly distinguish asset purchases from the central bank’s monetary policy actions," Bowman added, as well as how to communicate an exit strategy to reduce the resulting enlarged balance sheet over time. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. financial system vulnerable to bond market stress, Fed's Logan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Logan, who holds a vote in this year's Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meetings, did not comment on the outlook for monetary policy and the economy in her prepared remarks. She spoke amid ongoing concern about how financial markets, most notably the sector that trades U.S. government debt, will respond to the next chapter of stress. That said, a semi-annual monetary policy report released by the Fed on Friday sounded a somewhat sanguine note on market risk at the current moment. Trading in the Treasury market has been "orderly," although that particular market was more challenged on the liquidity front compared to others, it said. "The public and private sectors must work together to enhance market resilience so that these episodes will be far less frequent going forward," Logan said.

☆ Fed's Logan says financial system vulnerable to bond market stress
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Logan, who holds a vote on this year’s Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meetings, did not comment on the outlook for monetary policy and the economy in her prepared remarks. Before joining the Dallas Fed last year as its leader, Logan was a key official at the New York Fed designing and implementing the monetary policy directives of the FOMC. Those increases coupled with the Fed’s ongoing efforts to shed bonds to reduce its market footprint, have raised questions about what authorities might do to support markets in the future. A paper this week from the New York Fed said the official sector needs to move toward finding a more formalized approach to providing support. Logan said authorities are continuing to work on methods to formalize how they might intervene and to shore up underlying market strength.

☆ Inflation is doing a crab walk and Fed officials fear its pinch
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some background: The Covid-19 crisis triggered a sudden shift in student loan policy and a new openness to forgiveness. About 40% of those with federal student loan debt would have a zero balance; even more would have a much smaller monthly payment. But, “if payments resume without debt relief, we expect both student loan default and delinquencies to rise and potentially surpass pre-pandemic levels,” warned Fed researchers. Those missed payments suggest that some federal student loan borrowers are having trouble meeting their monthly debt obligations. “We expect these delinquency patterns to worsen if federal student loan payments resume without relief,” said the report.

☆ Fed can't tame inflation without 'significantly' more hikes that will cause a recession, paper says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve building is seen before the Federal Reserve board is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation in Washington, January 26, 2022. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be able to bring down inflation without having to raise interest rates considerably higher, causing a recession, according to a research paper released Friday. The Fed has implemented a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to tame inflation that had been at its highest level in some 41 years. That change implemented "average inflation targeting," allowing inflation to run hotter than normal in the interest of a more inclusive employment recovery. Fed Governor Philip Jefferson released a reply to the report, saying that the current situation differs from previous inflation episodes.

☆ Fed's Mester says hot inflation data affirms case for more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The government inflation report “is another indication that the impulse of inflation and price pressures is still with us. Mester spoke in the wake of the release of government data on incomes, spending and price pressures. “We just need to see all those prices coming back down and we haven't seen that sustainably yet,” Mester said. Since Mester called for a 50 basis point hike, jobs data has been very robust and inflation has been stronger than expected, suggesting her case for larger action remains in place. Mester reiterated in the interview that she still believes the federal funds rate, now at between 4.5% and 4.75%, needs to get above 5% and stay there to bring inflation down.

Some estimates have suggested the unemployment rate, currently at more than a five-decade low of 3.4%, may have to approach 7% for inflation to fall on a reasonable timetable. But a series of rapid rate hikes last year, which pushed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero to the current 4.50%-4.75% range, has so far been relatively cost-free. Those projections have inflation dropping to 2.1% by the end of 2025, with the economy growing throughout and the unemployment rate rising only to around 4.6%. By contrast, they said "the cost of lowering inflation to the Fed's 2% target by 2025 will likely be associated with at least a mild recession." Perhaps too reliant on the tame inflation of recent decades, the Fed made a "significant error" by not raising interest rates "preemptively" when inflation began accelerating in 2021, the group concluded.

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