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Investors should be wary of coming Fed rate cuts, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel warned. That's because the Fed is only cutting rates in response to a weakening economy, Spitznagel told Reuters last week. The US could see a recession and major stock crash before rates head lower, he predicted. That's because the Fed is only likely to ease monetary policy when the economy is slammed with a recession and the market is flailing, according to famous "Black Swan" investor Mark Spitznagel. "There are lag effects when you reset interest rates like we had."
Persons: Black Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, , Swan, Nassim Taleb Organizations: Reuters, Service, Federal Reserve, Universa, Federal, National Association of Business Economics, Investor
It was spring in Queensland, Australia, a season when many wild animals find themselves in trouble, and the Currumbin Wildlife Hospital was a blur of fur and feathers. A groggy black swan emerged from the X-ray room, head swaying on its long neck. A flying fox wore a tiny anesthetic mask. “We see everything,” Dr. Michael Pyne, the hospital’s senior veterinarian. The wards were often full; in 2023, the hospital admitted more than 400 koalas, a fourfold increase from 2010.
Persons: Dr, Michael Pyne, Pyne Organizations: Currumbin Locations: Queensland, Australia
But several realtors told CNN that their clients are now citing another reason: Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the fear that the conflict could spread. A record-breaking number of Poles bought property in Spain in 2023, topping the previous record set the year before, according to Polish outlet Bizblog. Lopez said a client last month bought a property because they wanted to avoid being conscripted into the Polish military. “The trigger, really, was the war in Ukraine.”But most buy just for peace of mind – a back-up plan, for those wealthy enough to afford one. “Obviously, we are in NATO, but I must say there’s a big amount of people who are really, really afraid,” she said.
Persons: Agnes Marciniak, She’s, , , Kostrzewa, Volodomyr Zelensky, Ukraine “, Donald Trump, Donald Tusk, , Maria Ruiz Lopez, Lopez, Wieslaw, John Keeble, Liivia Illak, she’s, ” Illak, Alexey Navalny, Putin, they’ve Organizations: CNN, realtors, United States, NATO, Getty Locations: Baltic, Ukraine, Russia, Europe, Spain, Warsaw, Poland, Andalucia, Malaga, Belarus, Estonia, Lithuania, Russian
Trump Media, which began being publicly traded last week, is now far and away the most expensive U.S. stock to sell short, according to S3 Partners , a leading financial data marketplace platform. You need a lot of cash — and guts — to short Trump Media stock right now. "It's the most expensive stock borrow," Dusaniwsky said of Trump Media. As of Wednesday, the short interest in Trump Media — or value of shares borrowed for short trades — was about $255 million. The investors who are able to borrow shares from their brokers for a Trump Media short sale are "good customers" of those brokers, he said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ihor Dusaniwsky, Dusaniwsky, Trump, , there's, Nick Wells Organizations: Trump, Trump Media, Investors, Partners, S3 Partners
Opinion: Trump videos send wildly different messages
  + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Richard Galant | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +19 min
We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets. In a video promoting the Bible, Trump said, “Religion and Christianity are the biggest things missing from this country. … we need to bring them back.”On Good Friday, Trump posted a very different kind of video. It showed an image of President Joe Biden lying sideways and tied up in the bed of a pickup truck. “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential campaign can’t win, but it could swing the presidency to former President Donald Trump,” Begala wrote.
Persons: Matthew Arnold, Homer, King James, Donald Trump, , Lee Greenwood’s, AJ Willingham, Trump, Joe Biden, Drew Sheneman, MAGA, Biden, Fareed Zakaria, ” Zakaria, Candida Moss, he’ll, he’s, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Julian Zelizer, ” “, , ” Clay, , Obama, “ Obama, CNN Trump, , Attorney Alvin Bragg, “ Trump, Stormy Daniels, ” Norman Eisen, Andrew Warren, James Antle III, stoked, Letitia James, Dali, Francis Scott Key, Tasos Katopodis, Richard Timme, ” Timme, Salvatore R, Mercogliano, , Jalal Baig, Catherine, Princess of Wales, Baig, Paul Hockenos, “ It’s, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Nicole Shanahan, Eric Risberg, Paul Begala, Ross Perot, George H, Bush, “ Robert F, can’t, ” Begala, ” Shanahan “, Sergey Brin, Hillary Clinton, Pete Buttigieg, Ro Khanna, Lee Drutman, Mark Osler, Jill Filipovic, Lisa Murkowski, Obeidallah, Johnson Ronna, Ronna McDaniel, Justin Sullivan, McDaniel, ” McDaniel, David Zurawik, Jack Ohman, Walt Handelsman, Tim Hubbard, Dennis Muilenburg —, Max, David Calhoun, , ” Hubbard, Annelle, ” Sheline, ” Don’t, Frida Ghitis, Putin, Howard Fischer, Keith O’Brien, Pete Rose, Nick Anderson, Agency Sara Stewart, Mary Ziegler, Patrick T, Brown, shouldn’t, Emma Firth, Carter ’ Parkwood, Roxanne Jones, Cowboy Carter, Beyoncé, ” Jones Organizations: CNN, Oxford University, New, Trump, Nasdaq, NYPD, Hollywood, Biden, Cupp, Obama, Manhattan, Attorney, Democratic, US Coast Guard, Baltimore, Federal Highway Administration, RFK Jr, RFK, Google, The New York Times, Republican National Committee, NBC News, , Press, NBC, MSNBC, Content Agency Boeing, Notre Dame, Boeing, US State Department, Israel, Tribune, Agency, Sony, AP Locations: Independence, New York City, America, New, Manhattan, Queens, New York, Baltimore, Coast, Suez, Port, China, Argentina, Red, Gaza, Wales, Northern California, California, Israel, Columbia
CNN —The allision between the container ship MV Dali and the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on Tuesday has prompted numerous questions — not only about how this tragedy occurred, but also about our global shipping processes. This marked the start of a campaign by the Houthis, in support of Hamas in their attack on Israel, against global shipping transiting the Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. Now, two years later, Baltimore is closed with remains of the Key Bridge athwart the main shipping channel. No one agency has oversight of or coordinates global shipping or ports in the US. There is also no overall maritime strategy for the nation, although the US Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration has been tasked to develop one.
Persons: Salvatore R, Mercogliano, Francis Scott Key, , Sal Mercogliano Bennett Scarborough, Dali, , Jennifer Homendy, Transportation Pete Buttigieg, John Garamendi of, Dusty Johnson of Organizations: Campbell University, Shipping, YouTube, CNN, MV Galaxy Leader, Baltimore, Federal Highway Administration, Transportation, Bethlehem Steel, Department of Transportation, Maritime Administration, US Coast Guard, Army Corps of Engineers, Maryland Department of Transportation, US Department of Transportation, Federal Maritime Commission, Democratic, Republican, Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, Ocean Shipping Reform Locations: Baltimore, Asia, Suez, Los Angeles, Long, Yemen, Israel, Bab, Aden, China, Argentina, Largo, Dali, Sparrows, United States, John Garamendi of California, Dusty Johnson of South
In today's big story, we're looking at why Zyn nicotine pouches are becoming the go-to alternative for workers looking for a boost . Zyn, a brand of nicotine pouch, has quickly gained a loyal following among some workers looking for a boost during the day. There was a 62% year-over-year bump in the amount of flavored nicotine pouches shipped in the US in 2023. Containers of "Zyn" nicotine pouches. He said the nicotine pouches were too accessible and gave him migraines.
Persons: , Michael M, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Sarah Jackson, Tim Paradis, Sarah, Tim, it's, Zyn, Tim he'll, vaping, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, Samantha Lee, Stanley, Max, Bob Jordan, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Getty, Wall Street, Republican, New York Stock Exchange, UBS, Electronic Arts, Verizon, Ford, Reading, Airlines, Boeing Locations: Copenhagen, New, Wall St , New York, USA, Oxford, New York, London
The fund made headlines for returning 4,144% amid the 2020 stock market crash, an example of a so-called black-swan event. And when the market moves one way, we think that's going to happen forever." Spitznagel's main don'ts to mom-and-pop investors are; don't chase the market, don't time the market, don't place too much confidence in its current direction, and don't make decisions based on short-term Fed moves. Instead, build a portfolio that's positioned so that if the market goes down by 50%, you won't be squeezed. And if the market is up 50%, don't be the sucker that's going to buy up there", Spitznagel said.
Persons: Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, Ray Dalio, We're Organizations: Universa Investments, Business
A key recession signal has been flashing for 16 months, but the other half of a downturn is missing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The firm pointed out that the spread between the 10-year and three-month treasury yields has been inverted for 16 months. Advertisement10-year minus 3-month Treasury yields from 1982 Federal Reserve Bank of St. LouisThat said, the inverted curve only accounts for 50% of a solid recession call. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley's chief economist, Ellen Zentner, warned that a "hard landing" downturn is guaranteed as the impact of Fed rate hikes still hasn't been felt fully throughout the economy.
Persons: , Louis That, Jamie Dimon, Morgan Stanley's, Ellen Zentner Organizations: Service, DataTrek Research, Treasury, Reserve Bank of St, Fed, JPMorgan Locations: downturns, Kuwait
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBlack swans happening once every three months, UAE economy minister says on tradeAbdullah bin Touq Al Marri, the UAE economy minister, says geopolitical tensions across the world are causing trade disruptions regularly.
Persons: Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri Locations: UAE
The US is headed for a debt "death spiral" if politicians don't rein in spending, Nassim Taleb said. "The Black Swan" author said debt troubles will continue if Congress can't"A debt spiral is like a death spiral," Taleb said at an event on Monday. AdvertisementThe US is facing a "death spiral" as a result of its mounting debt and the inability of politicians to confront the issue, according to "The Black Swan" author Nassim Taleb. In fact, rising debt in the US is a "white swan," Taleb said, and is an event that poses an obvious risk to markets versus a "black swan" event, which can occur without much warning. "A debt spiral is like a death spiral," he added.
Persons: Nassim Taleb, Swan, Taleb, , Per, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, Per Bloomberg, Universa Investments, Fed, Investors Locations: West, Congress
Nik Shah, a housing expert who was spot-on in his forecast for last year, said prices could climb 7% in 2024. "Barring a black swan event, we predict that the housing market in 2024 will appreciate more than 2023," Shah told the real estate outlet. Related storiesFor reference, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index notched a 4.8% annual gain up to October 2023, in line with Shah's estimate. At the same time, aging boomers will lead to an uptick in housing supply, which will should help ease prices. Meanwhile, findings from a separate Zillow survey suggest that the housing market could be breaking free from the "rate lock" phenomenon that froze activity last year.
Persons: Nik Shah, ResiClub, , Shah, hasn't, Gen Z Organizations: Service, metros, Owners Locations: Austin, Boise, Denver
Read previewKelly Monahan wants to use "data-driven empirical insights to help guide" the conversation around the future of work. As the managing director of Upwork's Research Institute, Monahan knows this is an uphill battle. I'm going to make kind of a bold statement: I'm really excited for job disruption. As leaders, and as workers, we can begin to really think about redesigning the job itself. I thought we'd be much further along in that conversation, which is why as a researcher, I'm really willing to dive back into it going into 2024.
Persons: , Kelly Monahan, It's, Monahan, I've, it's, Kelly, There's, that's, we'd, I'm Organizations: Service, Upwork's Research, Business
VIX options contracts averaged nearly 760,000 daily, surpassing the record set in 2017, according to Cboe Global Markets (CBOE.Z), data as of Nov. 27. Such investors are "looking at trading VIX options as a way to potentially monetize their thinking", he said. Reuters GraphicsThe rise in VIX options trading is a change from 2022 when investors were reducing equities exposure and hoarding cash, according to CBOE data. With the VIX averaging 17 this year, VIX options' trading volume as a share of overall options volume is at 1.76%, the highest since 2020 - a much more volatile year when the VIX averaged 29, according to a Reuters analysis based on Trade Alert data. Timing profit-taking on VIX options in an environment where jumps in the volatility index are fleeting can be difficult, said Roni Israelov, chief investment officer at NDVR.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Mandy Xu, That's, Joe Ferrara, JJ Kinahan, Seth Hickle, Roni Israelov, Laura Matthews, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock, REUTERS, . Federal, Cboe Global, Gateway Investment Advisers, Reuters, Trade, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Indiana, New York
CNN —Heart-shaped hot tubs surrounded by rose petals, circular beds with ceilings that replicate a starry night sky and jaw-dropping, seven-foot-tall champagne-glass whirlpools for two. Margaret and Corey Bienert/Courtesy Artisan BooksThe Cove Pocono Resorts premiered its heart-shaped hot tub in 1963. For Margaret and Corey, these images of the champagne tub became the thesis statement of their hotel project. Not all the hotels Margaret and Corey frequent are 20th century relics. Margaret and Corey Bienert/Courtesy Artisan BooksWhile most of the hotels Margaret and Corey highlight are in the US, the book also spotlights a few elsewhere in the world.
Persons: Margaret, Corey Bienert, , ” Margaret, Corey, Morris Wilkins, Wilkins, upping, they’re, Don, aren’t, Toledo , Iowa –, Trixie Mattel, , , Don Q, Margaret Bienert, they’ve, honeymooned, we’ve, “ It’s, it’s, “ There’s, there’s, hadn’t, “ I’ve, Diego Calvo Organizations: CNN, Resorts, CNN Travel, Artisan Books, Miami Princess Hotel, Pocono Resorts, “ Owners, Mon Chalet Locations: Pennsylvania, Pocono, Miami , Florida, Wisconsin, South Amboy New Jersey, Idaho and Utah, Toledo , Iowa, Galena , Illinois, Wildwood, Florence , Kentucky, swingers, Colorado, Idaho, Ibiza, Spain, Spanish
Palantir’s mythology is far too precious
  + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Yet Palantir’s top line is only expected to grow 16% this year, according to forecasts gathered by LSEG. There’s also a risk that Palantir’s ability to secure government contracts, which account for more than half its top line, will be restrained by its politics. For example, Palantir bought about $50 million of gold bars in 2021 to prepare for unpredictable “black swan” events. Also sitting on Palantir’s balance sheet are stakes in targets of special purpose acquisition companies, which it bought in exchange for purchase orders. It doesn’t take a wizard to see that in the eyes of investors Palantir is far too precious.
Persons: Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, “ Palantir, Palantir, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Aditya Sriwatsav Organizations: Reuters, Palantir Technologies, LSEG, Microsoft, Rubicon Technologies, Technologies, Thomson Locations: Snowflake, Israel, Health
Elon Musk – the world's richest person – is getting his very own biopic. Movie buffs are already speculating about who could play the controversial billionaire. AdvertisementAdvertisementElon Musk, the world's richest person, is finally getting his own movie. The film will apparently be based on Walter Isaacson's biography of Musk published earlier this year. AdvertisementAdvertisementPeople are already speculating about who could play the controversial billionaire, with Reddit threads and social media buzzing with suggestions.
Persons: Elon, Walter Isaacson's, Darren Aronofsky, , Elon Musk, Aronofsky, Oscar, Musk, Isaacson Organizations: Service, Variety, SpaceX, Twitter
SpaceX, Twitter and electric car maker Tesla CEO Elon Musk, attends a US Senate bipartisan Artificial Intelligence (AI) Insight Forum at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on September 13, 2023. Maybe the hottest question in Hollywood right now is: Who will play Elon Musk? Earlier this year, Brendan Fraser won best actor for his role as a reclusive and depressed professor in Aronofsky's "The Whale," while Hong Chau received a best supporting actress nomination. In 2011, Natalie Portman won best actress for the director's psychological ballet drama "Black Swan." Before that, Ellen Burstyn was nominated for best actress in 2001 for Aronofsky's disturbing drug-addiction drama "Requiem for a Dream."
Persons: Elon Musk, Elon, Walter Isaacson's, Tesla, Darren Aronofsky, Aronofsky, Oscar, Brendan Fraser, Hong Chau, Natalie Portman, Mickey Rourke, Marisa Tomei, Ellen Burstyn Organizations: SpaceX, Twitter, Artificial Intelligence, ?, NBC News Locations: Washington ,, Hollywood, Hong
REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 10 (Reuters) - A biopic on Elon Musk is in the works at New York-based studio A24 with "Black Swan"-filmmaker Darren Aronofsky as the director, according to a source familiar with the matter. A24 secured the rights to Walter Isaacson's biography on the world's richest person, according to the source, who added the Musk biopic will be produced by Aronofsky's production company, Protozoa Pictures. He is one of the best," Musk said in an X post on Friday. The book on Musk was released by private equity firm KKR-owned book publishing powerhouse Simon & Schuster in September. The billionaire bought social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, last year for $44 billion after a six-month saga.
Persons: Elon Musk, Porte, Gonzalo Fuentes, Darren Aronofsky, Walter Isaacson's, Darren, Musk, Brendan Fraser, Walt Disney, Steve Jobs, Michael Fassbender, Simon, Simon & Schuster, Dawn Chmielewski, Harshita Mary Varghese, Akash Sriram, Shinjini Organizations: Elon, SpaceX, Tesla, Twitter, Viva Technology, Porte de, REUTERS, Walt, Apple, Universal, KKR, Simon &, Reuters, Boring Company, Thomson Locations: Paris, France, New York, Los Angeles, Bengaluru
Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla, at the Viva Tech fair in Paris, France, on Friday, June 16, 2023. A biopic on Elon Musk is in the works at New York-based studio A24 with "Black Swan"-filmmaker Darren Aronofsky as the director, according to a source familiar with the matter. A24 secured the rights to Walter Isaacson's biography on the world's richest person, according to the source, who added the Musk biopic will be produced by Aronofsky's production company, Protozoa Pictures. He is one of the best," Musk said in an X post on Friday. The studio has previously worked with the director to produce his film "The Whale" starring Brendan Fraser that won Academy Awards for best actor, and best makeup and hair styling.
Persons: Elon Musk, Tesla, Darren Aronofsky, Walter Isaacson's, Darren, Musk, Brendan Fraser Organizations: Viva Tech Locations: Paris, France, New York
A "Black Swan" investor says there's a huge debt bubble and the Fed's policies will end in disaster. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. I don't think that should be a controversial statement." "Treasuries are not a safe haven, they're very much a hopeful haven. I think that they're pretty cheap right now, frankly, so I don't want to trash them too much.
Persons: there's, Mark, Treasuries, Spitznagel, , Mark Spitznagel, it's, They've, It's, Peter Lynch, I'm Organizations: Service, Universa Investments, Yahoo Finance
The S&P 500 has become more volatile in recent years, according to research firm DataTrek. The bigger factor is the massive growth of big tech stocks that make up more and more of the S&P 500. "The S&P 500 has become noticeably more volatile over the last +60 years, but returns have not increased commensurately," DataTrek said in a note published Thursday. AdvertisementAdvertisementHere's why the research firm sees higher risk in the stock market today than in past eras. Unexpected developments hit harderAnother explanation is that the market in recent years has had an outsized reaction to unanticipated developments relative to past eras.
Persons: , DataTrek, Apollo, Torsten Sløk Organizations: Service, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Big Tech, Data, GameStop
The exhibition seeks to foreground Aghion at the brand, repositioning Chloé as a historically important fashion name and giving the museum a pop culture edge. Do you think this is a teachable moment about cultural preconceptions, an effort by the museum to reach a new audience, or both? The Jewish Museum has mounted art-historically important exhibitions, though as you say, infrequently about fashion (their first was a buoyant Isaac Mizrahi survey in 2016). It’s rare for one show to focus on a single ready-to-wear brand such as Chloé. Yet that’s what the Jewish Museum is doing, and it suggests that brand has something very important to say.
Persons: Vanessa Friedman, Max Lakin, VANESSA FRIEDMAN Fashion, Isaac Mizrahi, Aghion, — sidelong, “ Ralph Lauren ”, Ralph Lifshitz, FRIEDMAN, Gaby Aghion Organizations: The New York Times, Met, Brooklyn Museum, Fashion Institute of Technology, Jewish Locations: New York, Jewish
Emma Jones, a spokesperson for the Fed, declined to comment on why many Fed officials, who in the past moved swiftly to acknowledge the war in Ukraine, weren’t addressing the war in Israel. There are some Fed officials who are starting to talk about it, though — albeit only when asked questions. Fed officials see little immediate threat to the US economyAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was the first to speak about the war, at the American Bankers Association’s annual conference last Tuesday. That’s probably why more Fed officials were quicker to acknowledge the war in Ukraine, Dorn said. “I don’t think the Fed wants to look like they’re taking sides,” Dorn added — but said Fed officials could easily talk about it without looking partial.
Persons: Chris Waller, ” Waller, Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Michelle Bowman, Lorie Logan, Emma Jones, James Dorn, , , Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Neel Kashkari didn’t, aren't, they're, Al Drago, Susan Collins, ” Collins, Patrick Harker, we’ve, Harker, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, ” Dorn, Dorn, There’s, Gregory Daco, Daco Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, , Dallas Fed, Fed, Cato Institute, CNN, Atlanta Fed, American Bankers, Minot State University, Minneapolis, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, ” Boston, Wellesley College, Philadelphia Fed, Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, JPMorgan, Rystad Energy Locations: New York, Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Waller’s, North Dakota, Delaware, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, United States, That’s, Gaza, Hormuz, EY
And while 12 months of speculation can seem like a lifetime for investors who just want an answer, it's really only a small moment in economic history. Reid and his team spotted plenty of patterns in all that data, including the common warning signs of a recession. For example, scholars and economists have been tracking recession data in the UK since 1700, while Italy only began tracking recessions in 1980. Reid wrote that black swan events such as geopolitical shocks, natural disasters, and global pandemics happen more often than people think. "And that's before we get on to more traditional causes of recessions, like monetary tightening or speculative bubbles," Reid wrote.
Persons: it's, Jim Reid, Reid, would've, Deutsche Bank Reid Organizations: Deutsche Bank Locations: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan
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