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☆ The economy is in an industrial recession and higher oil prices could spark a full downturn, Wall Street economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is in an industrial recession, according to Piper Sandler economist Jake Oubina. A spike in oil prices could be enough to tip the economy into a full recession, Oubina added. But in general, the economy's showing an industrial recession," Oubina said in an interview with Fox Business on Tuesday. AdvertisementThe economy could slip into a broader recession if there's a spike in oil and energy prices, Oubina added. "Oil prices spiking, energy prices spiking in the past, have been enough to tip the economy from a slowing into a recession.

Persons: Piper Sandler, Jake Oubina, —, That's, Oubina, Brent Organizations: Service, Institute of Supply Management, Fox Business, Atlanta Fed, Bank of America Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ Port strike could reignite inflation, with larger economic impact dependent on how long it lasts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-01 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Port of Miami dockworkers strike near the port entrance and demand a new labor contract, on October 1, 2024 in Miami, Florida. One rule of thumb is that for each strike day, it takes nearly a week to get ports operating at normal levels. watch now"We think fears around the potential economic impacts are overdone," wrote Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics. "Frequent shocks to supply chains in recent years have left producers more attuned to the risks of running low inventories. "There is little chance that the administration would risk jeopardizing its recent economic successes less than two months before a tightly-contested election," he said.

Persons: Giorgio Viera, Joe Biden, Taft, Hartley, Joseph Brusuelas, Andrew Hollenhorst, Bradley Saunders, Saunders, there's Organizations: Afp, Getty, International Longshoreman's Association, U.S . Maritime Alliance, Labor, RSM, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Citigroup, New, New York Fed, Capital Economics, ILA Locations: Miami, Miami , Florida, East, Gulf, U.S, United States, West Coast, New York, North America

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks are dancing in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Andrew Kelly | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ A 'Roaring '20s' economy is becoming more likely as bullish factors stack up, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS predicts a "Roaring '20s" economy, assigning a 50% chance to such an expansion by 2030. Solid data revisions, along with Fed rate cuts, support the optimistic outlook. "It's no longer too soon nor too optimistic to suggest that the US will experience a Roaring '20s economy," UBS said. AdvertisementA slew of bullish factors suggest the economy could be headed towards "Roaring '20s" status, according to a Monday note from UBS. Advertisement"The bread crumbs suggest a policy reaction function that is directionally supportive of a Roaring '20s outcome," Draho said of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's full employment goals.

Persons: —, UBS's, Jason Draho, Draho, Jerome Powell's Organizations: UBS, Service, Treasury, Atlanta, CPI

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Shiny September days for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Brendan Mcdermid | ReutersThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stocks' defiant showing this September was helped by positive sentiment generated by the U.S. Federal Reserve's jumbo rate cut and upbeat economic data. Relatedly, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September rose to a better-than-forecast 70.1 from 67.9 in August. "Inflation continues to keep its head down, and while economic growth may be slowing, there's no indication it's falling off a cliff."

Persons: Brendan Mcdermid, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, –, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Reuters, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, U.S . Federal, University of, U.S . Bureau, Atlanta Locations: U.S .

☆ The job market is reaching a turning point that will usher even steeper Fed rate cuts, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The job market is about to see a big shift that could bring faster Fed rate cuts, David Rosenberg said. That will emphasize the need for faster Fed rate cuts, he said in a note to clients. The ratio of the vacancy rate to the unemployment rate has tumbled in recent months. It's the unemployment rate that's moving up (+0.5 percentage points this year alone), while the vacancy rate has stabilized." "As the labor market eases, we'll see more modest changes in the vacancy rate and larger changes in the unemployment rate.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg, we've, Powell Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Atlanta

☆ Ron Insana: China's stock rally won't last because its economic problems run too deep
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

China's stock market has recently rebounded on the promise of further economic and market stimulus. The measures include cuts to a variety of interest rates , as well as support for China's flagging real estate sector . China's stimulus efforts The Shanghai Composite has rallied sharply in the aftermath of those moves but remains about 50% below its all-time high of nearly 6,000, last seen in 2007. These moves have failed to boost growth or lead to a durable and sustainable stock market rally. The U.S. stock market accounted for roughly 60% of global stock market valuation in 2023.

Persons: David Tepper, Let's, Ron Insana Organizations: Bank, Atlanta, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, European Union, U.S . Energy, Administration, The, U.S, Olympus, CNBC Locations: United States, China, It's, Shanghai, U.S, Beijing, Europe, Canada, European, The U.S, Russia, Iran, North Korea

☆ Dollar firm following sharp rebound as Fed speakers eyed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Earlier this week, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers "can't be behind the curve" if the economy is to have a soft landing. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the central bank needn't go on a "mad dash" to lower rates. Later Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell gives pre-recorded remarks at a conference in New York, where New York Fed President John Williams also speaks. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Lisa Cook take to the podium at various other venues as well. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's July meeting, when the central bank raised short-term interest rates, showed policymakers were divided on how quickly the central bank should raise interest rates further.

Persons: Adriana Kugler, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, I'm, it's, Kenneth Crompton, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Susan Collins, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, NAB's Crompton, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Reserve, Fed, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, National Australia Bank, New York Fed, Boston, Weekly U.S, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Swiss Locations: New York

☆ David Tepper says the Fed has to cut rates at least two or three more times to keep credibility
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Appaloosa Management's David Tepper said investors should believe the Federal Reserve when it says it will lower interest rates because the central bank has now to keep credibility. "Probably two or three interest rates, 25 basis point cuts, they have to do, or they lose credibility," Tepper said. You know, another 25, 25, 25 seems like it's going to have to be done." The super-sized rate cut last week came despite most economic indicators looking fairly solid. "It was around the 90s in that market where the where the Fed cut rates into Y2K in a good economy," he said.

Persons: David Tepper, Tepper, " Powell, Jerome Powell, Rich, " Tepper Organizations: Federal Reserve, Gross, Atlanta Fed, U.S, National Football League's Carolina Panthers Locations: U.S, China

☆ The stock market rally risks sparking an unsustainable 'melt-up' as the economy overheats, market vet Ed Yardeni says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market runs a bigger risk of an unsustainable melt-up, according to Ed Yardeni. AdvertisementStocks run the risk of seeing an unsustainable, dot-com style melt-up, thanks to the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. That move sparked a rally in stocks to fresh records —but it's also raised the odds of a stock market melt-up, he said, meaning investors are now facing the risk of an unsustainable market boom. And while inflation has cooled from its highs several years ago, it is still a risk, Yardeni noted. Advertisement"If they get to overheat the economy and get to create a bubble in the stock market, yeah they're creating some issues," Yardeni added.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, —, Stocks, it's, Yardeni, Michelle Bowman, haven't Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Yardeni, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed

☆ Why a jump in economic growth could be the stock market's nightmare scenario
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An acceleration of US economic growth is a major risk for investors, says economist Steven Blitz. Blitz warns a "no landing" scenario could lead to inflation rebound and Fed rate hikes. The fed funds rate should be around 4% due to economic resilience, Blitz advises. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAn acceleration of economic growth in the US might be the stock market's worst-case scenario, according to GlobalData TS Lombard chief economist Steven Blitz.

Persons: Steven Blitz, —, Blitz Organizations: Service, GlobalData, Federal Reserve

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Vaguely reassuring Fedspeak
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In an interview with CNBC, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, "We still have a strong, healthy labor market. But I want to keep it a strong, healthy labor market." Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was more circumspect.

Persons: IXIC BRBY, Jerome Powell, Michael Nagle, Neel Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, yesterday's Fedspeak, Dow, Jeff Cox, Brian Evans, Alex Harring Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Market, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Minneapolis, Atlanta Fed, National Association of State, Chicago Fed, Dow, Nasdaq Locations: New York, U.S

☆ Former Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart: Expect a series of 25 basis point cuts going forward
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart: Expect a series of 25 basis point cuts going forwardFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's interest rate decision, the rationale behind the central bank's decision to cut 50 basis points, rate path outlook, and more.

Persons: Dennis Lockhart Organizations: Former Atlanta Fed, Atlanta Fed

☆ Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari sees a slower pace of rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Monday that he expects policymakers to dial down the pace of interest rate cuts after last week's half percentage point reduction. "I think after 50 basis points, we're still in a net tight position," Kashkari said in a CNBC "Squawk Box" interview. "Right now, we still have a strong, healthy labor market. In their latest economic projections, FOMC members indicated that rate is probably around 2.9%; the current fed funds rate is targeted between 4.75% and 5%. Speaking separately Monday morning, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic indicated he expects the Fed to move aggressively in getting back to a neutral rate.

Persons: Neel Kashkari, we're, Kashkari, Kasharki, Raphael Bostic, Bostic Organizations: Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed Locations: Minneapolis

☆ The job market is about to rebound as widespread spending boosts the economy, Apollo chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

In a note to clients, Slok issued a more positive outlook on the US job market, even as hiring has slowed this year. "It is inconsistent to say that the incoming economic data is strong but the labor market is weakening," Slok wrote. AdvertisementHowever, consumption and business spending data have been strong in recent months. If the 30-year fixed rate slumps to around 5%, that could that could spark a rebound in home sales, providing a boost to the economy and job market, Slok said. AdvertisementThe outlook for the job market, though, remains mixed, with some commentators warning that hiring could continue to slow due to the lagged impact of the Fed's rate hikes.

Persons: —, Torsten Slok, Slok, Freddie Mac, David Rosenberg, who's Organizations: Service, Apollo Global Management, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Challenger, IRA, Atlanta Fed Locations: Atlanta

☆ Dow futures are little changed after clinching record high following Fed rate cut: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-22 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are near flat Sunday night after excitement over last week's interest rate cut propelled the blue-chip index to a record closing level. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures are also both little changed. All three of the major indexes added more than 1% for the week, during which the S&P 500 also reached new records. "But the signal is important nonetheless, and markets responded the following day taking the S&P 500 Index to a new all-time high." They'll also be following speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for insights into what the central bank will do next.

Persons: Dow, Ronald Temple, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis Fed

☆ An under-the-radar corner of the stock market has the green light for a 'powerful' catch-up rally, Goldman Sachs portfolio manager says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Small-cap stocks are poised for a significant rally, Goldman Sachs' Greg Tuorto said. The portfolio manager pointed to lower interest rates and a promising economic backdrop for small-caps. The presidential election could also be a positive catalyst, leading to a catch-up rally, he said. That's according to Greg Tuorto, a portfolio manager at Goldman Sachs Asset Management who says he sees a big "catch-up" rally coming for small-cap stocks. AdvertisementThe Russell 2000 surged 2% after the Fed cut interest rates on Wednesday, with the small-cap index up 12% year-to-date.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Greg Tuorto, —, Tuorto, it's, Fundstrat's Tom Lee Organizations: Service, Goldman Sachs, Management, CNBC, Atlanta Fed

☆ Cramer's week ahead: New inflation data and earnings from Costco, KB Home
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But regardless of the week's events, Cramer said the Fed's successful start to the easing cycle is leading the market in a positive direction. "We're in a rate cut cycle now, ok, it's very different from, from the last couple years. Next year should be better for the homebuilder than 2024 because the Fed is lowering rates, he added. Semiconductor outfit Micron will report earnings on Wednesday along with Cintas , which supplies a range of materials, including uniforms, to businesses. Retail grocery giant Costco reports on Thursday, and Cramer will be paying attention to which products are and aren't selling.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Raphael Bostic, Austan Goolsbee, Hewlett Packard Organizations: Costco, KB, Federal, Atlanta Fed, Chicago Fed, Apple, Semiconductor, Micron, Retail, Commerce Department

☆ Fed slashes interest rates by a half point, an aggressive start to its first easing campaign in four years
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The matrix of individual officials' expectations pointed to another full percentage point in cuts by the end of 2025 and a half-point in 2026. In all, the dot plot shows the benchmark rate coming down about 2 percentage points beyond Wednesday's move. On core inflation, the committee took down its projection to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from June. In fact, the last time the monthly hiring rate was this low – 3.5% as a share of the labor force – the unemployment rate was above 6%. At his press conference following the July meeting, Powell remarked that a 50 basis point cut was "not something we're thinking about right now."

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Market, Dow Jones, Fed, Gross, Atlanta Fed

☆ Dollar catches footing ahead of Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar steadied on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales had traders slightly trimming bets that the U.S. easing cycle will begin with an outsized interest rate cut. The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first interest rate cut in more than four years at 1800 GMT, which will be followed by a news conference half an hour later. A rate cut is fully priced, with interest rate futures implying a 63% chance of a 50 basis point cut, after flirting with 70% a day earlier. Traders say the Fed's tone as well as the size of the rate cut will drive the next moves in the foreign exchange market. China's stock, bond and currency markets resume trade on Wednesday after the mid-autumn festival break, though it is a holiday on Wednesday in Hong Kong.

Persons: Nathan Swami, Swami Organizations: Federal, Traders, Citi, Australian, New Zealand, Sterling, Bank of, ANZ Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Asia, U.S, Japan, Atlanta, Singapore, Hong Kong, Bank of England

☆ The Fed needs to 'start getting out of the way' and deliver a big rate cut next week, famed economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Economist Claudia Sahm urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. Sahm cites solid inflation progress and a slowing labor market as reasons for the big rate cut. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve "absolutely" needs to deliver a 50 basis point interest rate cut next week, according to famed economist Claudia Sahm. We need to kind of clean it up, do a 50 basis point cut, and then be ready to do more," Sahm said. AdvertisementInvestors are undecided as to what the Fed will do at its FOMC meeting next week, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a near 50/50 split probability between a 25 basis point or 50 basis point cut as of Friday morning.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, —, Powell, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, CNBC, Fed, Atlanta

☆ Top economist Ed Hyman no longer sees recession coming, flips GDP forecast to positive
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Economists Ed Hyman is backing off his call for a hard landing, even though he still sees the potential for a recession ahead. "History and experience say to stick with a hard landing outlook," he said in a client note Thursday. "However, the hard math that our team has reviewed says flip to a soft landing outlook. "In our view, arguments for a hard landing are still persuasive," Hyman wrote. "So this flip could be a mistake," Hyman wrote.

Persons: Ed Hyman, Hyman, Ally, Russell Hutchinson, it's Organizations: ISI, Atlanta Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve Locations: New York

☆ Fed Inspector General: Atlanta Fed president Bostic violated Fed trading rules
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Inspector General: Atlanta Fed president Bostic violated Fed trading rulesCNBC's Steve LIesman joins 'Power Lunch' to report on the Fed Inspector General releasing findings that Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic violated Fed trading rules.

Persons: Bostic, Steve LIesman, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Atlanta Fed, Fed

☆ All the data is pointing to a soft landing in the US economy, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy is not facing a recession, says Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk. Sløk cites strong employment data, wage growth, and consumer spending as key indicators. AdvertisementThe US economy is cruising toward a soft landing with no recession on the table, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk. "Daily data for debit card transactions shows that consumer spending has been accelerating in recent weeks," Sløk said. That's not something you see right before a recession hits the economy, according to Sløk.

Persons: Torsten Sløk, Sløk, — Organizations: Service, Sløk, Atlanta

☆ Bond market 'yield curve' returns to normal from inverted state that had raised recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An inverted yield curve, in which the nearer-duration yield is higher, has signaled most recessions since World War II. However, a normalization of the curve does not necessary signal good times ahead. In fact, the curve usually does revert before a recession hits, meaning the U.S. could still be in for some rough economic waters ahead. Job openings had exceeded labor supply by more than 2 to 1 at one point, aggravating inflation that had been at its highest level in more than 40 years. That part of the curve is still steeply inverted, with the difference now at more than 1.3 percentage points.

Persons: Raphael Bostic, Quincy Krosby Organizations: CME Group, Atlanta Fed, LPL, Labor Department, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Chicago, U.S

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