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The Treasury Department is poised to release its final budget figures for the 2022 fiscal year. A cooling U.S. economy and rising interest rates could widen the federal budget deficit, potentially undercutting the White House’s message that a shrinking budget gap under President Biden shows fiscal responsibility in a time of high inflation. The budget deficit for the 2023 fiscal year, which began Oct. 1, is expected to hold nearly steady from the last fiscal year, at more than $1 trillion, the White House and private sector economists say.
AUGUSTA, Ga.—Johnny Gregory III, a Black father with several teenage children, says his priority in the midterm elections is to vote for a candidate who will increase funding for education and teachers. “I do care about the economic issues. It’s just for me, the social issues mean way more to me right now,” said Mr. Gregory, 43 years old, who leads a local nonprofit and lives in Augusta. He plans to vote for Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock , who is in a tight race against Republican Herschel Walker . “The education system, I see it just getting worse.”
The Biden administration has highlighted the deficit’s decline, arguing its policies helped spur economic growth and labor-market strength. The federal deficit declined to $1.4 trillion in the just-ended fiscal year, as tax revenues increased and pandemic-related spending fell sharply, according to estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The CBO’s preliminary deficit figures for the 2022 fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30, show the federal budget shortfall fell by half from nearly $2.8 trillion the prior year, a roughly $1.4 trillion decline.
WASHINGTON—Recent economic developments threaten President Biden’s efforts to shore up the economy and reduce inflation, introducing fresh vulnerabilities to Democrats’ midterm campaign. Democrats aiming to keep their narrow control of the House and Senate have benefited in recent months from voter enthusiasm over abortion access, an issue seen as favoring their candidates after the Supreme Court struck down the right to the procedure. But oil production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, rising prices at the pump and the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation with successive rate increases stand to roil the economy and potentially bolster Republicans’ prospects.
A range of analyst estimates raises questions about how President Biden’s student-loan plan will ultimately affect the federal budget. President Biden’s plan to cancel student debt for some borrowers will cost the federal government an additional $400 billion, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The estimates released Monday are the latest to put a price tag on the administration’s student-loan modification plans, in the absence of a detailed accounting from the White House. A range of analyst estimates reflects the considerable complexity of projecting the performance of the federal government’s student-loan portfolio, and raises questions about how the moves will ultimately affect the federal budget.
The government is pressing to complete new rules on tax breaks for electric-vehicle purchases by an end-of-year deadline as auto companies seek guidelines that help qualify as many vehicles as possible. The Treasury Department is leading the effort after the August signing of a law that extended an existing $7,500 tax credit through 2032. The EV plan, included in Democrats’ climate, health and tax-policy package known as the Inflation Reduction Act, included new requirements for U.S. battery sourcing that auto makers have warned will make it difficult for models available today to be eligible.
Middle-income households in 2022 have seen inflation eat into a greater share of their incomes compared with low- and high-income households, according to a report released Thursday by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The report’s analysis considered an average basket of goods and services purchased by households in each fifth of the income distribution in 2019, before large shifts in consumption patterns during the Covid-19 pandemic. It found that households in the second, middle and fourth income quintiles have seen the share of their income—derived from labor, business and other nongovernmental sources—that would purchase that basket increase in 2022. Meanwhile, households in the lowest and highest quintiles have seen their share of their income that would purchase the basket fall this year.
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