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In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.
Economists said the revisions brought the claims series closer to other data that have suggested the labor market was losing speed. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this week offered a downbeat assessment of the labor market. The labor market is expected to significantly loosen up starting in the second quarter as companies respond more to a slowdown in demand caused by the higher borrowing costs. Small businesses, like restaurants and bars, have been the main drivers of job growth since the recovery from the pandemic. "This presents a lot of downside risks for the labor market," said Thomas Simons, an economist at Jefferies in Bloomfield, New Jersey.
Economists said Tuesday's report remained important for policymakers despite the angst in financial markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely increased by 0.4% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Food prices are expected to have risen moderately after climbing 0.5% in January. Gasoline prices likely increased, but overall energy prices probably eased slightly because of a decrease in the cost of energy services. With rents remaining hot, services less energy, probably recorded another month of strong price gains after rising 0.5% in January.
CASE FOR A SWIFT RETREAT1/ ENERGY PRICESTumbling energy prices are pulling down headline inflation. U.S. inflation rose 6.4% in January, the smallest rise since October 2021, from a 9.1% high last June. Instead, corporate profits have accounted for the lion's share of domestic euro zone price pressures since 2021, ECB data shows. A recent IMF study going back to the 1960s found that only in a small minority of cases where wages and inflation rose together for several quarters did sustained inflation result. The chief executive of Gunvor, a top oil trader, sees oil prices rising in the second half of 2023 on renewed Chinese demand.
But the tech, housing, and manufacturing industries might be already. "We have a manufacturing recession, a housing recession, a tech recession," she said in a Bloomberg post last week. In this scenario, parts of the economy would "take turns suffering rather than simultaneously" — and the broader economy would never reach recession status. There were over 55,000 reported tech layoffs during the first 20 days of January, more than the entire first half of 2022. It's led some to declare that a "tech recession" is already upon us.
The rate increase expected at the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting would bring the policy rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range. That's two quarter-point rate hikes short of the level most Fed policymakers in December thought would be "sufficiently restrictive" to bring inflation under control. At the same time, he said, "there's going to be some caution" about doing anything that could feed market expectations that a pause in rate hikes is imminent. Fed policymakers, as of December at least, all see no rate cuts until 2024. "The key question is how committed they are to further rate hikes."
Fed officials broadly agree the U.S. central bank should slow the pace of tightening to assess the impact of the rate hikes. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by 425 basis points last year, with the bulk of the tightening coming in 75- and 50-basis-point moves. If realized, that would take the policy rate - the federal funds rate - to the 4.50%-4.75% range. The fed funds rate was expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% in March, according to 61 of 90 economists. Reuters Poll- U.S. Federal Reserve outlookIn the meantime, the Fed is more likely to help push the economy into a recession than not.
Strong U.S. jobs, wages growth expected in December
  + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets. Household employment decreased in October and November, leading some economists to speculate that overall job growth was overstated. Yet the household survey tends to be volatile and most economists expect household employment would be revised toward nonfarm payrolls. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger rebound in household employment in December or over the coming months." But the trend in employment growth could slow significantly by mid-year.
On the heels of Tuesday's lower-than-expected inflation reading, the Federal Reserve is expected to tap the brakes Wednesday on its aggressive rate-raising plan designed to cool price growth in the U.S. economy. In addition to the slower price growth, layoff announcements are mounting. Notably, demand for bonds has increased, reflecting growing interest in more stable returns that are often correlated with slower economic growth. Out with inflation worries, in with recession fearsKey stock market gauges, meanwhile, continue to decline on concerns about flagging corporate earnings. If it was still worried about inflation, then interest rates, energy and banks would all be higher.
The tech industry accounts for about one-quarter of this year's job cuts, Challenger data show. The automotive industry has had 30,669 job cuts announced, compared with 10,277 through November 2021. And real estate has had 7,919 cuts announced this year, compared with 2,762 in 2021 year-to-date. "We've seen a lot of job cuts around mortgage origination and fintech firms in mortgages. U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November alone, more than double the 33,843 cuts announced in October and four-times the number of cuts announced last November, Challenger data show.
"Adding to the Fed's problems, monetary conditions have loosened in recent weeks as the dollar and longer-dated Treasury yields have fallen and credit spreads have narrowed. This is undoing the tightening effects of the Fed's recent rate rises." Investors now see an 87% chance that the Fed will increase interest rates by 50 basis points in December, down from 91% before the jobs data was published on Friday. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 5.14-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 3.09-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 15 new highs and 40 new lows.
CNN —Every year, as the days grow colder and Christmas draws nearer, “Love Actually” quickly becomes a festive favorite on people’s television screens. But nearly 20 years on from the release of the 2003 romantic comedy, the movie has faced scrutiny over its story lines and lack of diversity. He was speaking to Diane Sawyer as part of a documentary on ABC News titled: “The Laughter & Secrets of Love Actually: 20 Years Later.”“Love Actually” features interweaving story lines, following several romantic relationships. Hugh Grant plays the British prime minister who falls in love with his assistant, played by Martine McCutcheon. Universal/Dna/Working Title/Koba/ShutterstockNearly 20 years on, “Love Actually” remains popular, becoming a staple of the holiday season.
CNN —One of the most beloved modern Christmas classics is turning 20 next year, and to mark the occasion, cast members from the landmark 2003 romantic comedy “Love Actually” are reuniting for a TV special to air on ABC next week, the network announced Tuesday. Hugh Grant, Laura Linney, Emma Thompson, Bill Nighy and Thomas Brodie-Sangster are taking part in the special, along with the film’s writer-director Richard Curtis. The new reunion is not the first time the actors from “Love Actually” – who also include Keira Knightley, Liam Neeson and Colin Firth – have come together again. In 2017, a short sequel to the film was produced for NBC in honor of Red Nose Day, a charity for children in need created by Curtis. “The Laughter & Secrets of ‘Love Actually’: 20 Years Later – A Diane Sawyer Special” airs Nov. 29 at 8 p.m.
The Oscar nominee said the “Pirates of the Caribbean” spinoff in which she was set to star has been canceled. Robbie said work had stopped on the planned “Pirates” film because Disney didn’t want to move forward with it, according to her Vanity Fair cover story. Robbie and Hodson were first attached to the project in June 2020, one of two planned “Pirates” films, the Hollywood Reporter said at the time. The film series’ producer Jerry Bruckheimer confirmed Robbie’s involvement as recently as May of this year. The original “Pirates” film series was loosely inspired by the Disney theme park ride of the same name and starred Johnny Depp as Captain Jack Sparrow.
Home prices could crash 20% as housing supply begins to rise, according to ING Economics. But a silver lining of such a steep decline in home prices is that inflation would fall quicker than expected. A decline in home prices could already be seen in the S&P Case Shiller data, which saw a 1.3% month-over-month decline in home prices in August. The housing market hasn't experienced a back-to-back monthly decline in home prices since early 2012. Driving the housing price decline is a number of factors, according to Knightley, including higher mortgage rates, rising supply of homes for sale, and waning demand.
But that is unlikely to push the Fed to switch its policy path anytime soon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have remained blunt about the “pain” to come. The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. The real policy mistake is not bringing inflation back down to 2%,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at BofA Securities. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. “The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved.”(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)
But that is unlikely to push the Fed to switch its policy path anytime soon as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers have remained blunt about the “pain” to come. The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. The real policy mistake is not bringing inflation back down to 2%,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at BofA Securities. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. “The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved.”(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)
The survey predicted that would be followed by 50 basis points in December to end the year at 4.25%-4.50%. All but two of 51 economists who replied to an additional question said the risks were skewed towards a higher terminal rate than they currently expected. "The short-run pain of recession would be better than the long-run pain of inflation expectations becoming unanchored." Also, unlike most major central banks, the Fed has backing from a strong currency and a relatively strong economy compared with its peers. "The only way the Fed can do that is to hike rates and keep policy restrictive until that is achieved."
Slightly more than half - 55% - of the international banks and research consultancies polled by Reuters last week said there was a high risk confidence in British assets would deteriorate sharply in the coming three months. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFifteen out of 29 respondents said the risk was high, including three primary dealers of British government bonds. These shifts in part reflect investors' worry that Britain's reliance on imported energy will leave it exposed to higher inflation for longer. "But the new, inexperienced government faces great challenges and could easily make missteps which add to investors' concerns." "If higher inflation becomes a more structural phenomenon... yields could also turn out to be structurally higher," Rabobank's Bas Van Geffen said.
artistul care redă prin pictură viață păpușilor
  + stars: | 2015-08-08 | by ( Onixmedia Srl | ) diez.md   time to read: 1 min
Noel Cruz ia păpușile simple, le spală machiajul și le redesenează. Astfel, păpușile pictate de el devin izbitor de asemănătoare cu personajele din realitate. În procesul său de lucru, Noel este ajutat și de soția sa, care le coase păpușilor haine și le adaugă accesorii. Păpușile Meryl Streep și Anne Hathaway ca eroine ale filmului „The Devil Wears Prada”:Păpușile Johnny Depp și Angelina Jolie în imaginile eroilor filmului „The Tourist”:Păpușile Keira Knightley și Orlando Bloom în imaginea eroilor din saga „Pirații din Caraibe”:Păpușile Robert Pattinson și Kristen Stewart în imaginea eroilor din saga „Twilight”:Păpușile Harry Potter și Lord Voldemort:Păpușa Emma Watson în rolul Hermione Granger din „Harry Potter”:Păpușa interpretei Cher:Păpușa Michael Jackson:Noel Cruz în proces de lucru:
Persons: Noel Cruz, Noel, Meryl Streep, Anne Hathaway, Johnny Depp, Angelina Jolie, Orlando Bloom, Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, Harry Potter, Lord Voldemort, Emma Watson, Hermione Granger, Michael Jackson Locations: Caraibe
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