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☆ Morning Bid: Jobs glow, crude pops, dollar lifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWorld markets retained a warm afterglow from Friday's shining U.S. employment reading, with only minor gains in crude oil prices on Saudi Arabia's output cut clouding the picture. While Brent crude oil prices popped up about $1 per barrel on the Saudi output cut plans, the move was limited and year-on-year crude losses continue to clock some 35%. May U.S. service sector readings dominate the Monday diary, as does the likely start of Treasury rebuilding its depleted coffers with 3- and 6-month bill auctions. Soundings from China's service sector earlier helped partly to offset fears that dour factory readings questioned its post-COVID recovery. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Morgan, Mehmet Simsek, Christine Lagarde, Loretta Mester, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Apple, Brent, Treasury, Wall Street, Global, Central Bank, Cleveland Federal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Saudi, Asia

☆ Getting rich is only a swipe away
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Actor Leonardo DiCaprio, in his role as Jordan Belfort in the 2013 film, "The Wolf of Wall Street." Now a fraudster is only one swipe away from pitching you on how he or she can change your life with this simple strategy. But for a population that has grown accustomed to on-demand entertainment and instant results, getting rich apparently out of nowhere seems completely plausible. And if you'd like a rundown of how the big banks are thinking through their AI strategy, and the execs leading the charge, we've got you covered. We've got a rundown of the 10 most prestigious private middle and high schools in NYC, along with tips for getting in.

Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, Mike didn't, we've, I've, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jordan Belfort, There's, Dan Geiger, Matt Onofrio, Onofrio, you'd, Samantha Lee, I'm, Goldman Sachs, SMBs, Nvidia cofounders, We've, you've, Here's, Jeffrey Cane, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Paramount, Onofrio, Garden State, JPMorgan, Apple, Street, SVB Securities, SVB Financial, Bloomberg, American Express, Nvidia, Senate, LinkedIn Locations: New Jersey, Silicon, NYC, New York, London

☆ Morning Bid: Jubilant markets eye jobs in June jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Elizabeth FrantzA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith the U.S. debt ceiling removed, world markets see the sky again - encouraged that robust U.S. labor markets continue to defy recession fears as interest rates near peaks. And judged by all the other labor market soundings this week, there are few signs yet of any significant disturbance to the still-robust employment picture. Wall St's "fear index" - the VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied equity volatility - hit its lowest level since November 2021 early on Friday. To the extent the dollar was bid by debt-ceiling stress and thoughts of another June Fed hike, then it's fallen back again too. Elsewhere, oil markets are closely watching the weekend OPEC ministers meeting - although further production cuts are not expected.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Mike Dolan, Hong Kong's, Hang, Lululemon, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Senate, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, The United, Broadcom, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, China, Hong Kong, The United Nations, South Africa

It's not even midyear yet, but the full gamut of scenarios has been juggled in just five months. World markets have swung from "hard landing" fears of late 2022 to the "soft landing" hopes of the new year and then even unnerving thoughts of "no landing" at all - just before the banking stress hit of March forced them to return to square one. "The economy is more resilient than the market realizes," BlackRock's Chief Executive Larry Fink said on Wednesday, adding more interest rates rises will be necessary but that he saw no "evidence that we're going to have a hard landing." A "soft landing" typically relates to the ability of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to get inflation back close to 2% targets without crashing the economy into a deep contraction with surging unemployment via extreme rate rises. If correct - and not all agree - the prospect of a sustained return to 2% inflation targets would surely turn off the seatbelt sign.

Persons: Larry Fink, Willem Sels, Simona Mocuta, Mocuta, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, HSBC Global Private Banking, Nasdaq, Street Global Advisors, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall, United States, Europe

☆ Morning Bid: Hot, cold and skipping a beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Like a patient with a virus, incoming data appears to blow hot and cold at the same time. Private sector and full national snapshots of payroll growth for May are due later today and on Friday. But a renewed rise in U.S. staff vacancies in April showed the labor market tightening again if anything - even a Chicago manufacturing survey alarmed with a sharp contraction in factory activity last month. The central bank's "Beige Book" on economic conditions said on Wednesday that the labor market "continued to be strong" in May "with contacts reporting difficulty finding workers across a wide range of skill levels and industries." U.S. Treasury yields crept back up on Thursday after the debt ceiling vote overnight and despite the mixed economic picture.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Philip Jefferson, Larry Fink, Klaas Knot, Patrick Harker, President Biden, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, BlackRock, Treasury, U.S, San, Central Bank, Philadelphia Federal, Broadcom, Dollar, Hormel, Cooper Companies, Republicans, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Chicago, Salesforce, San Francisco

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Even if the U.S. dollar's singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not automatically lead to a weaker dollar exchange rate - and could periodically mean the opposite. The big advantage of large dollar reserve holdings alongside wide commercial usage and trade in dollars overseas was clear. But the issue is typically read in markets as a reason to bet on a weakening dollar exchange rate - or even to pump alternatives such as gold or crypto tokens. Of course, that was a global economy riven with fixed dollar exchange rate pegs that supercharged the transmission of Fed policy, most of which have since been dismantled. That may be a world many countries prefer if they are sure of viable alternatives - but may not mean a weaker dollar.

Persons: chomping, Alan Greenspan's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Mike Dolan, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Federal, OASIS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Venezuela, outflows

☆ Morning Bid: China factory fright, dollar surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yuan , now down more than 3% from its early May peaks, skidded to its lowest level of the year against the dollar as investors considered the possibility of further credit easing by the Chinese central bank. The dollar index hit its highest level since mid-March, with the European inflation news and China demand picture knocking the euro to its lowest in two months too. German import prices fell at an annual rate of 7% in April and the ECB's financial stability report warned about a "disorderly" hit to house prices from higher mortgage rates. The House Rules Committee voted 7-6 on Tuesday to approve the rules allowing a debate and vote by the full chamber. Overall, stock markets slipped back slightly - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index the big underperformer after the Chinese factory release.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Loretta Mester, Philip Jefferson, Susan Collins, Patrick Harker, Christine Lagarde, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Wednesday's Financial, European Central Bank, Dallas Fed, Boston, Philadelphia Fed, Consumer, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Europe, China, Italy, Chicago

☆ Morning Bid: Debt vote in sight, but further Fed squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Visitors walk on the plaza at the U.S. Capitol in the midst of ongoing negotiations seeking a deal to raise the United States' debt ceiling and avoid a catastrophic default, in Washington, U.S. May 24, 2023. Relief over the likely lifting of the U.S. debt ceiling this week is being reined in by the uncomfortable prospect of even higher Federal Reserve interest rates - and the further evaporation of any 2023 easing hopes. Futures markets now see a 60% chance the Fed will lift rates by another quarter point to the 5.25-5.50% range at its June 14 meeting. Though largely illiquid out of U.S. hours, one-month Treasury bill yields were marked about 10 basis points higher than Friday's close. U.S. stock futures were about 0.5% higher, in part due to relief over the debt deal - even though, unlike the latest big debt ceiling standoff in 2011, there has been little noticeable disturbance in stock indices over the past month.

To be sure, the April inflation data hit the UK debt market like a thunderbolt. While the headline consumer price inflation rate dropped to 8.7% from 10.1% in March, as energy prices ebbed, that was still far higher than forecast and core inflation rates hit their highest in 31 years at just under 7%. And a chief concern for many households is ongoing annual food price inflation still near 20%. Sterling and real yield spreadsNew UK gilt shock? Using 5-year real yields from the index-linked bond market, that premium jumped almost 40bp this week to its highest since last October.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt deal is near, Fed peak is not
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Investors juggled these three strands over the past 24 hours, with top-line equity index relief from the Nvidia-inspired spur to artificial intelligence and chip stocks everywhere. And the banking stress that changed the picture in March appears to be settling too, judging by the latest central bank numbers. Friday brings some hope that White House and congressional leaders can ink a deal on lifting the U.S. debt ceiling they indicated overnight was now close - just before the Treasury Department runs out of cash from June 1 next week. Anxieties in the Treasury bill market only eased a touch, and one-month bill yields remained above 6% early Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Japan's Kitano says he held back in bloody samurai film 'Kubi'
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

CANNES, May 26 (Reuters) - Japanese director Takeshi Kitano said that he held back in showing too much blood and gore in "Kubi", his new ultraviolent samurai film that features beheadings faster than can be counted. Kitano said that the violence reflected how battles were fought at the time and that the film actually held back. "The way they fought ... it's very barbaric, so we tried to limit ourselves from showing too much," said Kitano. The samurai of "Kubi" are, in Kitano's eyes, not so different from the yakuza crime syndicate members portrayed in his previous film that showed at Cannes, 2010's "The Outrage". The samurai are trying to get to the top of the food chain by being the toughest fighters, "but they are not smart.

☆ How Fighting for Conservative Causes Has Helped Ken Paxton Survive Legal Woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( J. David Goodman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A review of surveillance footage turned up the culprit: Ken Paxton, who was a Texas state senator. A few years later, Mr. Paxton, by then the state’s attorney general, suffered a more serious political blow when he was indicted on charges of securities fraud. Then in 2020, several of his most senior staff members at the attorney general's office accused him of bribery, corruption and abuse of office. Mr. Paxton has managed to survive it all, in large part because of the key role he has played as one of the most aggressive figures in the conservative legal movement. He described Mr. Paxton’s style as “legal warfare.”

RBC Capital Markets thinks strong gains are in store for Toll Brothers as demand improves. The firm thinks sentiment surrounding the luxury homebuilder's shares have been "overly negative." Analyst Mike Dahl said "given TOL's high-end, West Coast and build-to-order exposures," recent trends show the company has experienced improvement similar to its peers. Toll Brothers announced its fiscal second-quarter earnings Tuesday after the bell. However, the analyst believes Toll Brothers is a relative outperformer due to its resilient margins profile higher than its peers' average and an inexpensive valuation.

Persons: Mike Dahl, Dahl, TOL, Toll, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Toll Brothers, 1Q Locations: West Coast

☆ Morning Bid: Tech politics, debt cap brinkmanship
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Well-choreographed brinkmanship over the debt ceiling standoff looks set to go down to the wire, while technology firms have once again become a battleground in tense geopolitics. As AI-fueled U.S. technology stocks have led the way this year, the S&P (.SPX) has gained almost 10% this year and hit its highest level in nine months on Friday. Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said on Sunday he could support holding rates steady at the next meeting. Futures markets see more than an 80% chance of a June pause and still price almost 50bp of cuts by yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

A main focus of Trump's attacks has been Social Security - the federal pension system - and Medicare. I will always protect Social Security and Medicare for our great seniors." Today, party leaders and many Republican voters oppose reforming Social Security and Medicare because so many Americans rely on the programs. They are reliant on Social Security and Medicare and they worry about this stuff," Feehery said. INSULTS KEEP COMINGThere is so far no clear polling on how Trump's attacks on entitlement spending have impacted DeSantis.

☆ British Gymnastics chief calls for independent welfare body
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MANCHESTER, England, May 16 (Reuters) - The head of British Gymnastics wants the government to set up an independent body to ensure the welfare of athletes, saying many sports lack the resources to adequately safeguard competitors. "The solution, I believe, is to establish a new independent body to ensure athlete welfare across all sports." The safeguarding crisis in gymnastics, Darcey said, had created a backlog of hundreds of historical complaints. "The issues raised by this backlog, and the parallels we are seeing in other sports, lead us to call for a centralised independent body to prioritise the welfare and safeguarding of athletes across all sports," Darcey said. The United States is among countries which have a centralised body - the U.S. Center for SafeSport - to handle abuse complaints.

☆ We identified the 112 top executives at Warner Bros. Discovery under CEO David Zaslav as the year-old company takes aim at Netflix and Disney
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Claire Atkinson | Lucia Moses | Taylor Tyson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Warner Bros. One year after Discovery acquired WarnerMedia, WBD CEO David Zaslav faces economic headwinds and an ad slump. Insider mapped out the 112 most powerful people under Zaslav leading WBD film and TV studios, HBO, CNN, and more. One year after the merger that created Warner Bros. While Kathleen Finch has joined the mix with her portfolio of Discovery channels, top TV execs from the WarnerMedia regime — HBO's Casey Bloys and Warner Bros. TV studios chief Channing Dungey — are still in place.

☆ AMERICAS Debt cap tick-tock leaves eerie calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The issue dominated much of the G7 finance chiefs meeting in Japan. Dimon claimed any technical default could cause financial panic and JPMorgan had convened a 'war room' internally to deal with the issue. "It's very unfortunate, it's time-consuming, hopefully it won't happen, but it affects contracts, collateral, clearing houses, clients," Dimon said. Chinese stocks underperformed, with the G7 meeting mulling restrictions on investment to the world's second-biggest economy. Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill speaksReuters GraphicsJobless claimsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation cloud obscures Fed peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With markets edgy about the U.S. debt ceiling standoff and ongoing ripples from the March regional banking blow out, the running assumption is the Fed's campaign is over and disinflation underway. New York Fed chief John Williams said yesterday it's too soon to say the central bank is done and dusted. If consensus forecasts are correct, the April inflation readout later on Wednesday may well force the Fed to keep that equivocal line up for a bit longer. Futures markets show only a 15% chance of another Fed hike next month, with quarter point rate cut almost fully priced by September. Visibility is low in the fixed income market, however, due to the debt ceiling impasse.

With a wry nod to the weekend coronation of King Charles, Goldman Sachs' currency team labelled an upgrade of its sterling recommendation from neutral to 'Long (live) Sterling' - nudging a 3-month forecast for sterling 3% stronger to 0.86 per euro. "Headwinds on sterling in 2022 - mostly natural gas prices and the relative stance of BoE policy - have turned to tailwinds." Economic surprise indexes compiled by Citi show incoming UK readouts more positive relative to expectations than at any time since October 2020. But the FTSE 250 is mostly holding its own so far in 2023 as they have both advanced 3%-4%. UK Economic Surprises surge vs rest of the westG3 Terminal RatesFTSE100 vs FTSE250The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Morning Bid: Showdown on the ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

With world markets still at an impasse on the extent of the economic slowdown and chance of recession, the U.S. debt ceiling impasse remains unresolved - and Tuesday's showdown at the White House is one of the few opportunities left to resolve it. Biden meets Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy for the first time since February. There are only six days this month when the House and the Senate are in session when Biden is in Washington. Longer-term Treasury yields remain under wraps, however, with 2-year yields hovering just under 4%. DEBT CEILINGBeyond the debt ceiling row, the picture of the wider economy remains equivocal.

☆ How to build a giant? Sauropod dinosaurs did it 36 different ways
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Will Dunham | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A new study has calculated for the first time the number of different sauropod lineages that achieved whopping proportions - 36 of them in a span of about 100 million years bridging the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods. The heavyweight champion was Argentinosaurus, which lived about 95 million years ago in - you guessed it - Argentina, and weighed about 76 metric tons. Next were Brachiosaurus, at 63 metric tons, and Barosaurus, at 60 metric tons, both living approximately 150 million years ago in western North America. D'Emic identified 45 species from 36 sauropod lineages that beat those. "I think it's amazing that we are still learning so much about these animals," D'Emic said.

Florida lawmakers sent DeSantis a bill that would let him stay governor while running for president. "I don't think we have seen a six-month stretch that has ever been this productive in the history of our state," DeSantis said at the Florida Capitol in Tallahassee on Friday. Should DeSantis be successful in a presidential run, he would follow in the footsteps of Democrat Bill Clinton and Republican George W. Bush. Ron DeSantis speaks during an election night watch party at the Convention Center in Tampa, Florida, on November 8, 2022. During a press conference in Panama City, Florida, on Thursday, DeSantis continued to play coy about his intentions.

Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

☆ The top commentators in markets say the bank crisis isn't anywhere close to over.
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Today we're looking at what some of Wall Street's top investors and commentators say has to happen to curb the banking tumult. The shuttered bank had disclosed in its first-quarter earnings report that customers pulled over $100 billion of deposits in three-months. But even if the regulator did insure more money, former FDIC chair Jelena McWilliams said Thursday a move like that would only cost banks' customers more. A stock market portfolio created by ChatGPT is outperforming the top UK investment funds. Stock market investors should keep an eye out for five key indicators with volatility set to ramp up through the end of the year.

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