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China industrial profits tumble 18% in April as demand sputters
  + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
BEIJING, May 27 (Reuters) - Profits at China's industrial firms slumped in the first four months of 2023, official data showed on Saturday, as companies continued to struggle with margin pressures and soft demand amid a faltering economic recovery. In April alone, industrial firms posted a 18.2% drop in profit year-on-year, according to the NBS, which only occasionally gives monthly figures. Chinese companies are struggling with both weak demand at home and softening demand in the country's major export markets. Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang vowed more targeted measures to expand domestic demand and stabilise external demand in an effort to promote a sustained economic rebound. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.89 million) from their main operations.
China's industrial profits tumble 18% in April as demand sputters
  + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Profits at China's industrial firms slumped in the first four months of 2023, official data showed on Saturday, as companies continued to struggle with margin pressures and soft demand amid a faltering economic recovery. In April alone, industrial firms posted a 18.2% drop in profit year-on-year, according to the NBS, which only occasionally gives monthly figures. Chinese companies are struggling with both weak demand at home and softening demand in the country's major export markets. Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang vowed more targeted measures to expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand in an effort to promote a sustained economic rebound. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.89 million) from their main operations.
Japan's Nikkei powers to 1990 'bubble' era high
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
TOKYO, May 19 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei share average rallied on Friday to the highest since August 1990, the country's so-called "bubble" era, driven by a confluence of positive factors from strong earnings to optimism over a U.S. debt ceiling deal. The broader Topix (.TOPX), which had reached the post-bubble milestone on Tuesday, extended its climb to as high as 2,171.37. Foreign buying thanks to increased investment by Warren Buffett and a push for better corporate governance by the Tokyo Stock Exchange also provided some impetus. The Nikkei had rocketed 6.2% from the May 10 close - when sweeping rally began - to reach Friday's high. "Investors are going to spend today thinking hard about whether this Nikkei rally will continue," said Kazuo Kamitami, an equity strategist at Nomura Securities.
Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke against having a "street stall economy" in Beijing last week. It cannot operate 'factories in alleys' and engage in the 'street stall economy," Xi said, according to Insider's translation of his speech which was first reported by state news agency Xinhua. "Street stall economy" in China refers to recent efforts by local governments to revive their regional economies and to create jobs by promoting small entrepreneurship. China's youth unemployment rates are at a record highXi's opposition to the "street stall economy" could dash local government efforts to boost the economy through small entrepreneurship, even as China's youth unemployment rate hit a record high of 20.4% in April. This means 11 million Chinese people aged 16 to 24 are out of work, per CNN's calculations on April 30.
Investors trimmed their exposure to China amid economic uncertainty in the country, rising geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s crackdown on international consulting firms. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index has lost more than 5% since April 18. Another concern for global investors is the country’s “fundamental investability,” he said, referring to geopolitical and Chinese policy risks. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, one of the world’s largest pension funds, has closed its Hong Kong-based China equity investment team. “The more cracks appear in Western economies,” the more global investors will need to put money into Chinese assets, he added.
As doubts grow about the strength of its economic recovery, foreign money has left China's markets and the currency has fallen 4% against the dollar since late January. Analysts at Nomura and Societe Generale say the yuan could soon head for 7.3, which as last plumbed in November. Reflecting that, the trade-weighted CFETS basket against which the People's Bank of China (PBOC) manages the currency, has dropped to 99 from 100 in February. THE CHEAP CURRENCYBecky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, expects the yuan will continue to depreciate. "The interest rate gap remains wide, so many hedge funds continue to use yuan as a funding currency," Liu said.
Greg Becker, the former CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, blamed social media as an "unprecedented" factor in the lender's demise. The former CEO of First Republic Bank, Michael Roffler, also blamed social media for its collapse two months later. Bank executives and directors have ordered their companies to add social media into risk-management programs, according to regional bank executives who declined to be identified because the discussions are private. "NIP IT IN THE BUD"Banks are also contacting customers who complain on social media to address their issues quickly. The Financial Stability Board, an international body, is also investigating the role of social media in recent market turmoil, a source said.
A man rides his bicycle past a "G7 Hiroshima" flower sign at the Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima, ahead of the G7 Leaders' Summit, on May 17, 2023. (Photo by Philip FONG / AFP) (Photo by PHILIP FONG/AFP via Getty Images) Philip Fong | Afp | Getty ImagesThe annual Group of 7 summit officially kicks off on Friday in Hiroshima, Japan. A sign of G7 Hiroshima Summit is pictured in Hiroshima, ahead of the G7 Leaders' Summit, on May 16, 2023. G-7 finance leaders and central bankers finalized a three-day meeting in Niigata last week. "The U.S. will have a package of sanctions associated with the G-7 statement that will center on this enforcement issue," he told reporters.
Nomura hires two bankers for transport technology deals
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Isla Binnie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, May 16 (Reuters) - Japanese investment bank Nomura (8604.T) has hired two investment bankers to lead its coverage of mobility and automotive clients in Europe and the United States through its sustainability-focused division Greentech. "You saw in the "de-SPAC" furore a lot of standalone young electric vehicle companies raise capital. The reality is the path to success and scale, to build a standalone company, is dramatically complex," Duncan Williams, global co-head of Nomura Greentech, told Reuters. Investment banks in Europe and the United States raked in more than $700 million in fees for deals in technologically-advanced mobility and transportation in 2021, Williams said, adding he expected the area to remain lucrative. Reporting by Isla Binnie in New York Editing by Greg RoumeliotisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 0.1% year-on-year, the lowest rate since February 2021, and cooling from the 0.7% annual gain seen in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Reuters GraphicsPBOC TESTEDOverall inflationary pressures remain low with the core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, up 0.7%, unchanged from the previous month. The statistics bureau attributed the weaker consumer inflation to the base effect. Vegetable prices extended their decline to 13.5% and pork, a major driver of CPI, slowed its price growth to 4.0% from 9.6% in March. "Securing income growth and improving consumer confidence remain key policy priorities for delivering a more sustainable consumption recovery," said Pang.
The producer price index, which measures factory-gate prices, declined by 3.6%, marking the biggest contraction in three years. The weak property sector recovery likely has exerted “persistent” downward pressure on the factory-gate prices, they added. A slump in the property sector affects demand for key raw materials such as steel and cement, which are key parts of the producer price index. Producer deflation will likely deteriorate, with the PPI expected to drop further by 3.9% on falling global commodity prices. Deflation is bad for the economy because, in such an environment, consumers and companies may put off spending in anticipation of prices falling further, which would only exacerbate economic problems.
The U.S. debt crisis is a headache for Japan, which is this year's G7 chair and the world's biggest holder of U.S. debt. Five more countries were invited to the outreach including Brazil, India and Indonesia - but not China - although emerging nations' debt problems will feature high on the agenda. On the other hand, Tokyo is courting China to join a creditor nations' meeting it initiated to resolve Sri Lanka's debt. "The agenda of talks show how G7 is becoming increasingly politicized in nature, with an emphasis on countering China." The International Monetary Fund last month trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook and warned a severe flare-up of financial system turmoil could slash output to near recessionary levels.
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 30, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - Options market demand for insurance against a stock market crash has soared to multi-month highs, even as equities have calmed down after a choppy start to the year. U.S. stock market volatility has subsided as the S&P 500 (.SPX) has logged a 7% year-to-date gain. Though stock market gyrations have subsided in recent weeks from levels hit during the regional banks crisis, investors see plenty of catalysts for volatility ahead. Institutional investors' stock exposure has inched higher after slumping in 2022 to a decade low, excluding the COVID-19 market crash of March 2020, Deutsche Bank data showed.
The U.S. debt crisis is a headache for Japan, which is this year's G7 chair and the world's biggest holder of U.S. debt. Five more countries were invited to the outreach including Brazil, India and Indonesia - but not China - although emerging nations' debt problems will feature high on the agenda. On the other hand, Tokyo is courting China to join a creditor nations' meeting it initiated to resolve Sri Lanka's debt. "The agenda of talks show how G7 is becoming increasingly politicized in nature, with an emphasis on countering China." The International Monetary Fund last month trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook and warned a severe flare-up of financial system turmoil could slash output to near recessionary levels.
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 30, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidNEW YORK, May 10 (Reuters) - Options market demand for insurance against a stock market crash has soared to multi-month highs, even as equities have calmed down after a choppy start to the year. U.S. stock market volatility has subsided as the S&P 500 (.SPX) has logged a 7% year-to-date gain. Though stock market gyrations have subsided in recent weeks from levels hit during the regional banks crisis, investors see plenty of catalysts for volatility ahead. Institutional investors' stock exposure has inched higher after slumping in 2022 to a decade low, excluding the COVID-19 market crash of March 2020, Deutsche Bank data showed.
BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - China's exports were expected to have risen again in April, albeit at a less robust pace than a month earlier, a Reuters poll showed, supported by unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID disruptions though slowing global growth is darkening the outlook. With many of China's major trade partners on the brink of recession, analysts remain wary about the outlook, noting that the stunning improvement in March partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders from last year's COVID disruptions. South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.
Ping Shu | Moment | Getty ImagesWhile a pause in the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle would lead to stronger Asian currencies, the region's recent earnings and disappointing Chinese economic data leave watchers split on the growth outlook. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconA Fed pause could boost U.S. stocks, but its effect on regional growth in Asia may not be as straightforward. Nomura's equity strategists kept their views for Asia-Pacific stocks unchanged despite the likelihood of a potential Fed pause, maintaining its year-end target for MSCI Asia ex-Japan. "Nonetheless, in our base case, we do not expect a meaningful decline in Asian stocks. "Asian investors' big worry surrounds China," he said, pointing to the "unsustainability of consumption rebound, especially against the backdrop of persistently high youth unemployment levels."
Some also believe the recent banking sector tumult will hurt lending and further constrain growth, forcing the Fed to cut rates before inflation is tamed. April’s survey of global fund managers from BoFA Global Research showed stagflation expectations near historical highs, with 86% saying it will be part of the macroeconomic backdrop in 2024. Next week’s consumer price data for April, due on Wednesday, May 10, could offer a clearer picture of whether the Fed’s interest rate increases are cooling inflation. Charlie McElligott, managing director of cross-asset macro strategy at Nomura Securities, pointed to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate, which is projecting a 2.7% growth rate in the second quarter, up from 1.8% on May 1. At the same time, expectations that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much higher has created a better backdrop for investors, he said.
US debt ceiling: How to trade off it
  + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
BlackRock says (BLK.N) it's been buying Treasuries in anticipation of an economic slowdown and a protracted debt ceiling fight. 2/ RAINY DAY DEFAULT PROTECTIONCredit default swaps (CDS), which work like insurance against a debt default, are seeing strong demand. "If debt ceiling concerns grow we think markets will price in more Fed rate cut expectations, which means 5-year yields would fall," said Miyairi. 5/ ALL THAT GLITTERSDeutsche Bank strategist Robin Winkler says a good hedge may be buying gold against the dollar, as it has the tightest relationship with newsflow around the debt ceiling. In August 2011, as a debt ceiling crisis prompted a U.S. credit rating downgrade, gold rose 11% that month alone.
Hong Kong CNN —Holiday spending during China’s Golden Week has surged past pre-pandemic levels for the first time in three years, in a sign the country’s travelers have fully emerged from the depths of Covid-related restrictions and are eager to live large to make up for lost time. Alipay, the country’s biggest digital payment app, reported a 200% increase in online holiday spending from a year earlier. “The fact that domestic tourism spending is now back to 2019 levels suggests that the reopening boost to consumer spending has largely run its course,” said Capital Economics analysts in a Thursday report. “The swift recovery in in-person services has been the major driver of China’s post-Covid recovery this year,” they said. However, “the lackluster property recovery, a global slowdown and rising geopolitical conflict remain major challenges for China’s recovery to be sustained.”
TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan continued to reverberate days after the decision. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationMeanwhile, the Aussie dollar leapt to a one-week high after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate hike and signalled more tightening may come. The central bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85% and said “some further” tightening may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is widely expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting the following day, with a 50 basis-point increase on the table.
TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan kept foreign exchange markets busy engaging in so called ‘carry-trades’. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The euro was steady at 150.965 yen after earlier touching 151.03 for the first time since September 2008. The greenback was about flat at 137.375 yen, and earlier rose to 137.58 for the first time since March 8. At the RBA, traders are laying 87% odds for no change to policy, although about 11 bps of tightening is priced for the August meeting.
Several analysts, industry executives and investors said they believe the March banking crisis has set conditions for a long-predicted round of industry consolidation to finally happen. We've also been approached by some big bulge bracket banks that are also looking to acquire the regional banks." Some bank deals have been stuck for months waiting for approvals. And Monday's deal shows larger banks with deeper pockets are better placed than mid-sized lenders, according to Jefferies analysts. "This may have precluded other regional bank bidders from making the math work as well as it does for JPM," they wrote.
Several analysts, industry executives and investors said they believe the March banking crisis has set conditions for a long-predicted round of industry consolidation to finally happen. We've also been approached by some big bulge bracket banks that are also looking to acquire the regional banks." Some bank deals have been stuck for months waiting for approvals. And Monday's deal shows larger banks with deeper pockets are better placed than mid-sized lenders, according to Jefferies analysts. "This may have precluded other regional bank bidders from making the math work as well as it does for JPM," they wrote.
Nomura shares drop more than 7% after quarterly profit tanks
  + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
TOKYO, April 27 (Reuters) - Nomura Holdings Inc (8604.T) shares dropped more than 7% early on Thursday after Japan's biggest brokerage posted a sharp fall in quarterly net profit as worries about a global banking crisis roiled markets and hit its investment banking business. Moody's Japan senior analyst Tomoya Suzuki also blamed rapidly rising interest rates around the world and geopolitical tensions for dampened investor sentiment. "Moody’s has a negative outlook on Nomura Holdings’ rating, reflecting structural challenges to the company's profitability in the domestic retail segment," Suzuki wrong in a report. Nomura's wholesale division, which houses its investment banking and trading businesses, sank into the red for the second consecutive quarter with a pre-tax loss of 14.2 billion yen ($106.24 million). Its shares were down 7.5% in early trade, marking the biggest daily fall since March 2021.
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