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☆ A famed economist who called the 2008 recession warns stocks are in a 'mega-bubble' with the S&P 500 ahead of fundamentals by at least 25%
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Economist David Rosenberg warns the stock market is in a "mega-bubble." The S&P 500 continues to register new highs and has climbed an incredible 23% so far this year. For investor positioning, here's household equity ownership as a percentage of assets as of the start of this year. Related storiesBy Rosenberg's measure, the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be. AdvertisementSince then, the S&P 500 has risen to 5,864.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, —, That's, it's, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve

☆ Here's something for the bulls to celebrate over the next 10 weeks
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nerad + Deppe Wealth Management's Steve Deppe found 12 other examples since 1950 when the S & P 500 ended October with a six-month trailing return above 10%. The six-month trailing return on the S & P 500 is currently north of 15%. On average, the S & P 500 gained 7.4% in November and December in all those other instances. "In 2024, it's very easy to want to take the money and run," Deppe told CNBC Pro from his office in La Jolla, California. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500, year to date Deppe currently expects the S & P 500 will finish 2024 above 6,000.

Persons: Steve Deppe, Harry Truman, Deppe, We've, we've Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro Locations: La Jolla , California

☆ Why the stock market will drop 7% by mid-November, according to a technical analyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could face a 7% correction by mid-November, says Fundstrat's Mark Newton. AdvertisementThe stock market looks poised for a 7% correction by mid-November, according to technical analyst Mark Newton of Fundstrat. AdvertisementNewton is monitoring the 5,900 level on the S&P 500 as potential resistance for the index. The S&P 500 traded at around 5,850 on Friday. "This market has seemingly 'dodged a bullet' thus far during one of the historically worst periods during most election years.

Persons: Fundstrat's Mark Newton, —, Mark Newton of, Newton, Tom Lee's Organizations: Investor, Service, Equity, Technology, RSI Locations: Newton, Mark Newton of Fundstrat

☆ Israel's Sinwar video shows the chilling reach of battlefield drones
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Loh | Mia Jankowicz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Only 13 years ago, the world learned of what were Muammar Gaddafi's last few moments through shaky video filmed on cellphones. Small drones are a critical feature of combat in Ukraine, where they've been used for battlefield observation and attack. The hovering quality of the Sinwar video indicates it was likely filmed by a quadcopter. AdvertisementThe astounding wealth of drone-fed intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance has made more of the battlefield visible than ever before. Nonetheless, technological advances mean that drones watching the battlefield will be a ubiquitous feature of future wars, a looming threat to ground troops and fleeing leaders.

Persons: Israel, Yahya Sinwar's, —, Yahya Sinwar, Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar’s, GJGDlu7bie, Nadav Shoshani, Muammar Gaddafi's, Mauro Gilli, Gilli, they've, It's, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Maria Berlinska, Guy Prives Organizations: Service, Swiss, ETH Zurich, Anadolu, Getty, Pentagon, IDF Locations: Libyan, It's, Ukraine, Russian, Moscow, Kursk, Israel

☆ Stocks are nearing a major peak and a more 'disturbed' period of weak returns is ahead for investors, CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Grant said stocks could soon enter a period of weak returns, possibly for "many years." AdvertisementThe bull market in stocks looks like it's close to the top, according to an investment chief. AdvertisementSentiment and position indicators are also flashing signs investors are overexcited about the stock market, Grant said. The 3-month moving average of year-ahead stock market expectations has climbed to its highest on record, according to Conference Board data. That suggests there's little "cushion" in the event the stock market declines or experiences a shock, Grant said.

Persons: Michael Grant, Grant, —, subpar, Morgan Organizations: Calamos Investments, Service, Conference, Board, Federal, Federal Reserve, Governors, Morgan Research, Bloomberg, Investors

☆ Investment banking has made a multibillion-dollar rebound, but it's too early to pop the Champagne
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Hayley Cuccinello | Emmalyse Brownstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Major banks like Goldman Sachs walloped Wall Street expectations thanks to dealmaking fees. Investment banking has made a comeback, and bigger bonuses are in the cards, too. The biggest banks on Wall Street reported a huge boost in dealmaking fees this quarter after a two-year slump. Investment bank revenue surged 30% on average at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley, according to Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo. Morgan Stanley's investment bank revenue surged 56% year over year to $1.46 billion, beating Wall Street expectations.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Mike Mayo, Sharon Yeshaya, Morgan, Global's Nathan Stovall, corporates, Stovall, David Ellison's Skydance, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, David Solomon, Mayo, Cole Smead, There's, Jon Gray, anecdotally, Gray, David Stowell, Stowell, I'm, it's, Alan Johnson Organizations: Investment, Service, Wall, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Citi, Mars, Paramount, David Ellison's Skydance Media, Wall Street, Smead Capital Management, Blackstone, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, underwriters, Johnson Associates Locations: Wells Fargo, Mayo

☆ Stock market today: Indexes trade near record highs after a string of solid earnings reports
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks were mostly higher on Friday amid a string of solid third-quarter earnings reports. Netflix and Intuitive Surgical beat Wall Street estimates, boosting their stock prices to new record highs. 82% of S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have surpassed Wall Street's profit estimates. AdvertisementUS stocks traded higher on Friday, with all three major averages at or near record highs as investors digested third-quarter earnings results. Intuitive Surgical also reported solid third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates for revenues and profits.

Persons: — Organizations: Netflix, Service, Wall

☆ China just triggered more stimulus measures, even as it says its economy is showing 'stable growth'
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The People's Bank of China triggered two market support programs after China announced economic data. China's economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of this year, the country's statistics bureau announced as it touted a "stable growth trend." "The property market unsurprisingly remains the biggest drag on China's growth," wrote Song, adding that stabilization in the real estate market remains "elusive." China's economy is being dragged by factors including a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation. He added that he expects Beijing to continue to do more to support growth so the economy can enter 2025 on better footing.

Persons: —, Sheng Laiyun, China's, Lynn Song, Betty Wang, Larry Hu, Rajiv Biswas, who's, Wang Organizations: People's Bank of China, Service, Reuters, Greater China, ING, Oxford Economics, People's Bank of, Macquarie Group Locations: China, Greater, People's Bank of China, Beijing

☆ China central bank chief flags more interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A pedestrian walks past the People's Bank of China headquarters in Beijing, China, on Monday, Feb. 26, 2018. On Oct. 21, the Loan Prime Rate will decrease by 20 to 25 basis points, the official Xinhua news agency quoted Pan as saying. The benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate will also be lowered by 20 basis points and the medium-term lending facility rate reduced by 30 basis points, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng told a financial forum in Beijing. At the financial forum on Friday, Pan also warned against any illegal fund flows into the stock market. Pan said the two measures were based entirely on market-oriented principles, and the swap facility was not a form of direct financial support from the central bank.

Persons: Pan, Pan Gongsheng Organizations: People's Bank of China, Xinhua Locations: Beijing, China, China's

☆ Stock market today: US stocks close at records and notch 6-week win streak amid solid earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Dow and the S&P 500 hit all-time highs Thursday as US stocks hit a six-week win streak. Strong third-quarter earnings from Netflix and Intuitive Surgical led to massive 10%+ stock gains. Upcoming earnings reports and economic data releases will be closely watched by investors next week. Shares of Netflix and Intuitive Surgical soared more than 10% to record highs after their third-quarter earnings bested analyst's profit and revenue estimates. Next week, on the economic data front, investors will monitor the release of September's US leading economic indicators index, data on existing home sales, and consumer sentiment.

Persons: —, Dow Organizations: Dow, Netflix, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Texas, Tesla Locations: FactSet

☆ CNBC's Inside India newsletter: The changing face of India's rich
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Speaking to CNBC's Inside India, Kohli noted that India's wealthy now come from a swathe of industries. India's stock market became the fourth-largest in the world at the start of the year, after overtaking Hong Kong. Meanwhile, those whose wealth that falls between 10 to 50 million Indian rupees are in the affluent category, he added. Historically, India's wealthy had a median age exceeding 50. Drivers of India's wealthThe growth in India's wealthy population comes in tandem with the nation's economic progress.

Persons: Ratan Tata, Waterfield, Ratan Tata —, Ambani, Himanshu Kohli, Kohli, Pramod Gubbi, Marcellus, Lee, Gubbi, Knight Frank, What's, Malcolm Dorson, Dorson Organizations: Tata Group, Fortune India, Tata Sons, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors, Titan Company, Marcellus Investment, Lee Kuan Yew, of Public, National University of Singapore, Bombay Stock Exchange, Global, Volvo, Apollo Locations: India, Tata, CNBC's, Hong Kong, Pune, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, Chennai, U.S

☆ A strong dollar is a key risk to the stock market's big rally, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the stock market's bull run could slow if the dollar strengthens again. AdvertisementMorgan Stanley's top stock strategist is eyeing one risk in particular that could threaten the stock market's big rally: a stronger US dollar. According to the firm's chief US equity strategist, Mike Wilson, a dollar re-strengthening could hinder stock gains. The greenback weakened as markets prepared for steep rate cuts, but that move has reversed in recent weeks as strong economic data makes more aggressive policy easing less likely. Wilson's call comes two years into the market's bull rally, with major indexes continuing to hit fresh all-time highs.

Persons: Morgan, Mike Wilson, —, that's, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bloomberg Radio, Federal Locations: China, Japan

☆ Retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than expected; jobless claims dip
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A customer during the grand re-opening of a Century 21 department store in New York, US, on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. Retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, up from the unrevised 0.1% gain in August and better than the 0.3% Dow Jones forecast, according to the advanced report. Excluding autos, sales accelerated 0.5%, better than the forecast for just a 0.1% rise. The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation, which rose 0.2% on the month as measured by the consumer price index. Despite the decline in initial filings, continuing claims, which run a week behind, edged higher to 1.867 million.

Persons: Dow Jones, Helene, Milton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Dow, Labor Department, Stock, Boeing Locations: New York, Florida, North Carolina, U.S, Michigan

☆ Chinese robotaxi firm Pony AI files for U.S IPO
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pony AI, in which Japan's Toyota owns a 13.4% stake, revealed that its revenue nearly doubled to $24.7 million in the first half of 2024. Net loss attributable to the company was $51.3 million in the same period, compared with $69.4 million last year. The number of Chinese companies that pursued stock market flotations in the U.S. dropped in the past few years after Beijing clamped down on offshore capital-raising in 2021. EV maker Zeekr's debut in May was the first big listing by a Chinese company in the U.S. since then. Pony AI has applied to list on the Nasdaq stock exchange under the ticker symbol "PONY."

Persons: Saudi Arabia's NEOM, BingEx, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Toyota, U.S . Federal Reserve, Japan's Toyota, Saudi Arabia's, Zeekr's, Nasdaq, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Huatai Securities, Tiger, underwriters Locations: Beijing, China, U.S, Saudi

☆ Stock market today: Indexes gain after strong retail sales data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks rose Thursday as investors digested strong retail sales data and more earnings. Retail sales data showed US consumer spending remains robust, with monthly spending up 0.4%. AdvertisementUS stocks climbed on Thursday as traders saw better-than-expected retail sales data and continued to digest strong corporate earnings reports. September's retail sales report showed consumer spending remains strong, with monthly spending up 0.4% from August, just above a Dow Jones consensus estimate of 0.3%. And almost every AI innovator is working with TSMC," TSMC chairman and CEO C.C.

Persons: Stocks, ASML, —, C.C, Wei, TSMC, Morgan Stanley, JB Hunt Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, AMD, chipmakers, United Airlines, Netflix, Caixin Global, JB Locations: Wednesday's, Here's, China

☆ Uncovering the mysterious side of art pricing. ‘Everyone’s trying to make money’
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Lucy Handley | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

"There's very little genuine information and data on pricing," he told CNBC via video call. CNBC contacted a dozen New York City art galleries and the same number in London to request price lists for their current exhibitions. "The degree of popularity, the level of scarcity and the degree of credentialization [or] … if something has organically captured the zeitgeist," are factors, he told CNBC by phone. "Despite more online information aiding discovery and valuation, there really isn't a highly liquid global marketplace, contributing to perceptions and realities of 'black box' pricing," Tjan told CNBC in a follow-up email. Making art affordableA visitor takes a photo at the Affordable Art Fair Hong Kong, on May 16, 2024.

Persons: Harriman, they're, Paul Hewitt, Gosia Łapsa, London gallerist, Williams, Tony, Malawska, I've, I'm, Tony Tjan, Charlotte Black, Artclear, Shantell Martin, Bryan Bedder, Black, Tjan, Will Ramsay, Ben Marans Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Foundation Law, New, Society of London Art Dealers, Jeune, Ball, Art Locations: New York City, London, New York, London gallerist Lucca Hue, Hue, U.K, British, Hong Kong

☆ Jim Cramer says investors too worried about the Fed's next move are missing opportunities
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday said some investors are missing market opportunities because they are too focused on what the Federal Reserve will do next when it comes to interest rates. "I'm not saying the stock market will never go down when the Fed's easing," he said. But Blackstone reported an impressive quarter, and the stock reached a new all-time high, up more than 6% by the close. He also referenced the turbulence this week in the semiconductor space — triggered by a bad quarter from Dutch chipmaker ASML on Tuesday — saying investors' Fed worries may have scared them out of expensive stocks. "Everyone who's obsessed with the Fed's next foray is basically investing with blinders on, and as a result, they're missing out on some of the greatest moves I've ever seen in my life," Cramer said.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, I'm, Jay Powell, Blackstone, ASML, Jensen, they're, I've, Cramer Organizations: Federal Reserve, Blackstone, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor

☆ Top Wall Street analysts are boosting stock market forecasts as the bull market charges on
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A number of bank research desks have raised their S&P 500 price targets in recent weeks. AdvertisementThe bull market hasn't weakened in the fourth quarter, and top bank research desks have been rushing to raise their S&P 500 price targets into year-end. AdvertisementBelski said his upgrade was based on strong market gains so far this year, which he says typically leads to stronger-than-normal gains in the fourth quarter. Lakos-Bujas kept his 4,200 price target for the S&P 500 unchanged, though. AdvertisementThe more upbeat 2024 forecasts come as the bull market charges on, with the S&P 500 up 3.2% in the last month and 22.6% this year.

Persons: —, hasn't, Goldman Sachs, Jonathan Golub, Patrick Palfrey, David Kostin, Kostin, Brian Belski, Belski, Dubravko Lakos, Bujas Organizations: Service, UBS, BMO, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, Reserve

☆ Jane Street, the trading firm where SBF started his career, offers interns a salary equivalent to as much as $250,000 a year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Polly Thompson | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Jane Street is one of Wall Street's most lucrative trading firms. Some internships at the firm offer a base salary equivalent to $250,000 annually. AdvertisementLucrative trading firm Jane Street is one of Wall Street's leading market-makers. In a sign of its success, Jane Street currently has 58 job vacancies in its New York office. AdvertisementA quantitative researcher internship, which runs from May to August, offers a base salary of $250,000 annually.

Persons: Jane, —, Jane Street, Jane Street's, Sam Bankman, Caroline Ellison, Fried, Donald Trump's, Glassdoor, Goldman Sach, JP Morgan Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Financial Times, World Trade Center, Alameda Research, Jane, JPMorgan, Barclays, FT Locations: New York, Hudson, Alameda

☆ Wall Street strategists sour on the China trade, see stimulus as another 'boom-bust' episode
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Beijing's lack of concrete economic stimulus actions poured cold water on U.S. investors who went big on the China trade, and strategists on Wall Street are warning of disappointment ahead. The professional cohort had piled into beaten-down stocks last month, stirred by hopes of more government assistance for the troubled China economy. "Indeed, the only part of the Chinese economy that appeared to be holding was its export sector. Investor sentiment toward Chinese stocks was partly aided by high-profile hedge fund manager David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, who turned extremely bullish. Stanley Druckenmiller reportedly said he's not interested in Chinese stocks under the current political leadership, regardless of the new policies.

Persons: Stefano Pascale, Sameer Samana, Donald Trump, Barclays Pascale, David Tepper, Tepper, Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller, he's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Trump, CSI, Appaloosa Management, CNBC Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Beijing

☆ Morgan Stanley is about to report earnings — here's what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

In this articleTed Pick, CEO Morgan Stanley, speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland on Jan. 18th, 2024. Morgan Stanley is set to report third-quarter earnings before the opening bell Wednesday. Here's what Wall Street expects:Earnings: $1.58 a share, according to LSEGRevenue: $14.41 billion, according to LSEGWealth management: $6.88 billion, according to StreetAccountTrading: Equities of $2.77 billion, Fixed Income of $1.85 billion, according to StreetAccountInvestment Banking: $1.36 billion, according to StreetAccountMorgan Stanley has several tailwinds in its favor. Finally, its Wall Street rivals have posted better-than-expected trading results, making it unlikely that the firm missed out on elevated activity. JPMorgan Chase , Goldman Sachs and Citigroup topped expectations, helped by better-than-expected revenue from trading or investment banking.

Persons: Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley, StreetAccount Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs Organizations: LSEG Revenue, Wealth, Investment, JPMorgan, Citigroup Locations: Davos, Switzerland

☆ China could raise nearly $1 trillion of fresh debt in the next 3 years to revive its economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Chinese media reported that China could rack up $850 billion in debt to help revive its economy. China has vowed to roll out more fiscal stimulus, but key details were missing in a recent update. AdvertisementChina's fiscal stimulus efforts could include racking up almost $1 trillion in fresh debt over the next several years, according to local media. The money could be used as fiscal stimulus and to help "off-the-books debt" in local governments, the people added. One researcher recently estimated that the direct effects of China's latest stimulus package may not be felt until 2025, mainly because more fiscal stimulus needs to be unlocked before the policies can bolster the nation's economy.

Persons: —, Lan Fo'an Organizations: Service, China's, Finance, CNBC, Bloomberg, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, Hong Kong

☆ Triller is finally a public company after years of false starts. Here's its pitch to investors.
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Dan Whateley | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The creator and marketing company Triller is finally trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker ILLR. The company went public via a reverse merger with a Hong Kong-based company called AGBA. A reverse merger occurs when a private company goes public by acquiring a publicly listed company. That didn't come to fruition, and in December 2021, the company announced plans to complete a reverse merger with a company called Seachange International. Creators, brands, and consumers are the main cohorts that AGBA touts as central to Triller's business in its recent filings.

Persons: Triller, —, TikTok —, It's, Julius, AGBA, Triller's, Mike Lu, Lu Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, AGBA, Holding, Clubhouse Media, Reuters, Seachange, SEC, Big Tech, AGBA's, Facebook, YouTube, Business, Billboard Locations: Hong Kong, buzzy

☆ The stock market is in a 'mania' that will push it higher before a potential 26% drop in 2025, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 could lose a quarter of its value next year, according to Stifel. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 looks like it's in the midst of another "mania," and investors could see a steep drop in the benchmark index sometime next year, according to Stifel. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 looks like the fifth stock mania, according to a Stifel analysis spanning the last 139 years. Stocks could be challenged next year due to the uncertain outlook for Fed rate cuts, the strategists suggested. Investors could be impacted for the long-term, they added, pointing to previous manias, which historically led to weak stock returns over the following decade.

Persons: it's, —, manias Organizations: Service, Bloomberg

☆ Stock market today: Indexes mixed as traders look to recover from chip sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks wavered on Wednesday as traders looked to recover from a sell-off in the chip sector. Morgan Stanley beat estimates on strong investment banking activity. AdvertisementUS stocks wavered on Wednesday as traders looked to recover from a sell-off in the chip sector and waited for another round of corporate earnings reports. The Nasdaq was down slightly as chip stocks struggled to recover from Tuesday's sell-off. Chip stocks stumbled in the previous session after ASML cut its sales guidance for 2025.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Wall Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, AMD, Nvidia

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