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☆ European junk debt sales spring back to life as sentiment improves
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

According to Refinitiv data, those sales so far in January add to almost $2.2 billion worth of sales in December and $760 million in November. Decades-high inflation and aggressive central bank rate hikes also weighed on debt markets with investors shunning risk assets. Firms are either selling new debt or asking investors to extend the maturity of existing debt, offering in return an increase in the interest they pay. Last week, Air France SA-KLM (AIRF.PA) sold a debut sustainability-linked bond worth one billion euros, giving the European credit market its first major high-yield deal in months. Analysts say that such firms could struggle with selling new debt and might require shareholder support to entice investors.

Japan's 10-year bond yield, trading at 0.4%, fell on Wednesday but is not far off its highest levels since 2015. Total holdings of foreign bonds by Japanese institutional investors, excluding Japan's $1 trillion reserve portfolio, reached $3 trillion at their peak. GOING HOMEThe implications of higher inflation and a possible end to ultra-low rates are not lost on Japanese investors. Still, anticipating a shift, Japanese investors sold a net 2.1 trillion yen ($15.94 billion) of foreign bonds in December, marking a fourth straight month of selling. According to Nomura, Japanese investors have been far more active buyers of global and overseas equities than domestic stocks in the last decade.

☆ Fund manager allocation to U.S. stocks in January collapses, BofA survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Fund managers' allocation to U.S. equities collapsed in January, with 39% saying they had an underweight position, the most since October 2005, a BofA survey of global investor views on Tuesday showed. Global growth optimism hit a one-year high, while inflation expectations have peaked, according to the global Fund Manager Survey of investors, who have combined assets under management of $772 billion. The survey showed investors turned bullish on euro zone equities, flipping their allocation to a 4% net overweight in January from a 10% net underweight in December. Fund managers also moved into emerging market stocks, increasing their net overweight to 26%, the highest since June 2021. The survey also showed inflation staying high as the biggest "tail risk" and the top "contrarian trades" as being 'long' stocks, U.S. stocks and tech versus 'short' bonds, emerging market stocks and utilities.

☆ Hedge fund manager Boaz Weinstein bets market is wrong on Credit Suisse
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The curve trade in Credit Suisse reflects my view that one way or the other, in the next two years the drama around Credit Suisse will resolve for better or for worse. Weinstein led a proprietary trading fund at Deutsche Bank which was spun out to start Saba Capital Management in 2009. Credit Suisse's CDS surged in price through late November after the bank's $2.4 billion rights issue and the stock of the company fell to the lowest level in its 166-year history. While bearish bets against Credit Suisse mounted in late 2022, Weinstein says he watched Credit Suisse's CDS price curve make less and less sense: the 2-year protection on the bank cost about the same as the 10-year. Credit Suisse declined to comment.

☆ Take Five: Much to say in Tokyo (and Davos)
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. earnings and retail sales numbers, a slew of China data and inflation readings elsewhere mean there's plenty to mull over. Recent data showed Tokyo inflation at double the central bank's target. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ HOPE AND FEARU.S. retail sales data and more earnings reports are on tap. Before then comes December's data deluge, with industrial output (CNIO=ECI), retail sales (CNRSL=ECI) and Q4 economic growth data (CNGDP=ECI) lining up to be ugly. Economists expect retail sales to have dropped 7.8% for a fourth straight monthly decline and for annual growth to finish up at a meagre 1.8%.

☆ Analysis: China's rapid reopening brings joy and woe for world markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The impact of the reopening of the world's second largest economy on financial markets, hit by double-digit losses last year as inflation and interest rates jumped, is critical. Being touted among the top buying bets on recovery hopes are emerging markets, commodity currencies, oil, travel and European luxury companies. The boost to world growth from China's reopening was expected to hurt the safe-haven dollar but benefit the euro. INFLATION CAUTIONBut a boost from China's reopening raises some concerns about inflation. China is the world's leading importer of oil and many other commodities -- oil prices have risen 10% since mid-December to almost $84 .

☆ Euro hits 7-month high, European shares briefly drop after U.S. CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The euro hit a seven-month high, European government bond yields briefly trimmed falls and European shares dipped after data showed an easing in U.S. inflation in December. The euro rose to a more than seven-month high at $1.08155. Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for the euro area, briefly trimmed some of its earlier falls. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) briefly trimmed gains before hitting a new high on the session. And in Britain, government bond futures fell sharply before lurching up and then returning close to to their earlier level.

☆ Analysis: Move over TINA, it's time for TARA
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Reuters GraphicsIdanna Appio, a portfolio manager at First Eagle Investments, said that TINA was good for passive investors as it meant that equity prices went up because bond yields went down. "The risk free rate," he added, referring to core government bond yields, "actually gives you something." Bond funds recorded net inflows for six straight weeks until early January, BofA said, based on its analysis of EPFR data. "The end of TINA is very important," said Francesco Sandrini, head of multi-asset strategies at Amundi, Europe's largest fund manager. "You don’t need a bond bull market, you now have income," said Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at U.S. money manager DoubleLine.

☆ Investment management firm AQR books best year in several strategies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 6 (Reuters) - Investment management firm AQR's Absolute Return Strategy in 2022 saw its best year since its inception since 1998, a source with knowledge of the matter said on Friday. Its Equity Market Neutral Global Value and its Global Macro strategies both posted record years at 44.7% and 42.0% net of fees. Its Alternative Trend Strategy also had its best year ever, with a 48.9% net of fees, the source added. AQR is an investment firm that has hedge fund strategies but also includes long-only and mutual funds. Trend strategies would continue to succeed for AQR during sustained downturns and persistent macro volatility, the source told Reuters.

☆ Hedge fund fees fall to lowest level since 2008 financial crisis -HFR
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Hedge fund fees have dropped to their lowest level since the global financial crisis in 2008, research firm Hedge Fund Research (HFR) said on Friday, as high inflation and recession fears hit investors. HFR said hedge fund base fees fell from the second to the third quarter of 2022 by one basis point (bps) to an estimated 1.35% and that average incentive fees tumbled 4 bps to 16.01%. Both estimated fees represent their lowest levels since HFR began publishing the estimates in 2008, a note from the firm added. The top hedge funds in their weighted composite index had a positive 10.9% return while the bottom decile averaged a negative 14.3%. The hedge funds that are easy to get into might not be the best ones to invest in, he added.

☆ Take Five: Welcome to 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - A potential shift by the world's most dovish major central bank, inflation pressures abating, a turn in the economic outlook and oil markets suffering their biggest tumble in decades: Welcome to 2023! 1/ EARNINGS AND INFLATIONThe week ahead brings a critical read into two key themes for Wall Street in 2023: the health of corporate profits and inflation. With crude oil volatility soaring, 2023 might be anything but plain sailing for producers and consumers alike. Barclays expects the UK economy to keep contracting until the end of the third quarter of 2023. It takes time for declines in market prices to filter through into household bills, but signs are positive for cash-strapped consumers and businesses.

☆ Credit Suisse seeing strong demand for new sterling-denominated bond
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Jan 5 (Reuters) - A new bond being sold by Credit Suisse on Thursday met with strong demand from investors, a lead memo seen by Reuters showed, in a positive sign for the embattled Swiss bank. The sterling-denominated bond is expected to be priced later on Thursday and follows the sale of two U.S. dollar-denominated Credit Suisse bonds on Wednesday. Credit Suisse sold a $1.25 billion two-year bond, with a 7.95% coupon and an 8.06% yield, and a $2.5 billion dollar five-year bond with a 7.50% coupon and a 7.551% yield. The high yields reflect the higher premium investors are demanding to hold Credit Suisse debt as the bank goes through a restructuring. Credit Suisse has been battered by mishaps, including a $5.5 billion loss on U.S. investment firm Archegos.

☆ Morning bid: Rate cut talk, already!
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Indeed, minutes from the Fed's December meeting, released on Wednesday, cautioned against expectations for late-year rate cuts that traders have priced in. They price in roughly 40 basis points worth of rate cuts in the second half of the year and the key is whether inflation will slow enough for the Fed to ease. So perhaps it is too early to be talking about rate cuts? Still, U.S. stock futures point to a weak start for Wall Street shares , and European shares are a touch softer too. Gas prices are falling fastKey developments that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:- U.S. Nov trade data.

Reuters Graphics3/ RE-EMERGING MARKETSWhisper it, but the emerging markets (EM) bulls are back after 2022 delivered some of the biggest losses on record. Credit Suisse particularly likes hard currency debt and DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach, AKA the "bond king", has EM stocks as his top pick. Economists polled by Reuters expect headline U.S. inflation to decelerate to 3.1% by the end of 2023. Valentine Ainouz, fixed income strategist at the Amundi Institute, predicts the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will end 2023 at 3.5% from around 3.88% currently. Reuters Graphics5/ EQUITIES: SELL NOW, BUY LATEREquity investors hope a V-shaped year for the global economy will see stocks end it comfortably higher.

☆ Morning Bid: The year of the yen?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Dhara Ranasinghe, Editor, Financial Markets EMEA, Thomson Reuters. And the yen, for starters, is intent on leaving a dismal 2022 behind. Yet, on the second trading day of the new year Japan's currency is already scaling seven-months highs. All this leaves the yen - you guessed it - as one of the most favored trades early in 2023. MUFG says that even after the recent rebound, the yen is still "deeply undervalued," which leaves scope for further gains.

☆ Dollar edges up at start of new year but sentiment frail
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It has weakened recently as markets bet a U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle may be nearing an end and sentiment remained fragile. The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was trading up around 0.16% at 103.65 - off roughly six-month lows hit last week at around 103.38. Against the yen, the dollar was a touch softer at 130.94 , having hit its lowest levels since August last month. "There is an attempt by the dollar index to pull higher today but we do see that it is losing a good part of the strength it gained last year," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex research at Commerzbank. That Fed tightening helped lift the dollar index 8% last year in its biggest annual jump since 2015.

☆ Stocks buoyant while darker forecasts gather on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.06%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.16%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) climbed 0.6%, retracing little of the nearly 12% it lost in 2022, bludgeoned by central banks' aggressive monetary policy tightening. Elsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.2% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed around 27 basis points (bps) last week and over 200 bps last year, ending 2022 around 3.88%. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 8.4 bps to 2.47%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday.

☆ Stocks edge higher as darker forecasts loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.04%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.21%. "Europe is taking the latest round of PMIs well enough, as the final readings help to confirm the view (hope?) DOLLAR STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN STRENGTHElsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.1% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 13 bps to 2.43%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie Additional reporting Dhara Ranasinghe Editing by Mark Potter and Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Private debt markets face reality check as companies grapple with rising rates, recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Chiara Elisei | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

An era of ultra-easy cash from central banks lured investors into private credit, attracted by juicy returns in the high-single to low-double-digits. The private debt market has expanded to $1.4 trillion, up from $250 billion in 2010, according to data provider Prequin, with funds including Ares, Blackstone (BX.N) and KKR (KKR.N) holding big positions. Corporate default risks are rising, making investors think twice about holding riskier private debt. A Private Credit Default Index by law firm Proskauer showed a default rate of 1.56% on U.S. dollar-denominated deals in the third quarter, the first notable increase over the past 18 months. "While the default rate is likely to go up, I wouldn't expect to see a significant spike in 2023," he added.

While governments worldwide are grappling with high inflation and low growth, UK policymakers are still rebuilding fiscal and political credibility following the brief, chaotic premiership of Liz Truss. Worries about growth are leading some investors to limit their holdings of the pound and British debt. Reuters GraphicsForeign investors have traditionally been attracted by Britain's strong rule of law, stable governance and thriving financial and professional services sector. In the latest data, up to the second quarter of this year, FDI represented more than half the net outflow - a result of strong UK investment abroad but weak inward investment too. Stephen Welton, executive chairman of major growth capital investor BGF, said attracting foreign investment was like a global competitive sport - one that Britain had previously excelled at.

☆ Take Five: Keeping the lights on
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/PICKING A (JAPANESE) PIVOTEven the uber-dovish Bank of Japan has not been spared from investors trying to pick central bank pivot points. France is striving to avert power cuts, and Germany is bleeding cash to keep the lights on. Thursday has meetings scheduled for Indonesia - where the central bank has just seen growth added to its mandate - as well as Egypt, which is in line for support from the International Monetary Fund. Expectations of a softer dollar as the U.S. economy slows have sparked optimism about emerging markets, which should also benefit from China easing COVID-19 restrictions. Emerging markets interest ratesCompiled by Karin Strohecker, Graphics by Sumanta Sen and Vincent Flasseur, editing by Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ For bear stock pickers, 2023 is full of rich pickings
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] Carson Block, Chief Investment Officer, Muddy Waters Capital LLC., speaks at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York City, U.S. May 4, 2016. Hedge fund Muddy Waters on Wednesday said it was shorting Vivion Investments, suspecting the real estate investment firm's portfolios were overvalued. Since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, companies have pushed aggressive accounting to its limits, said Muddy Waters CEO Carson Block. People are milking the system," he said, adding that he expects even more aggressive accounting and fraud in 2023. Tighter monetary conditions and less readily available debt means investors will likely scrutinise company cash generation in 2023, Earl said.

☆ Central banks ramp up rates again but the pace slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Central banks in Britain, Norway, Switzerland, the euro zone and the United States have all raised interest rates this week. The central bank raised its forecast for its peak interest rate to 5.5%, up from a previous forecast of 4.1%. Money markets moved after the statement to forecast UK interest rates will top out at around 4.5% in August. Markets anticipate an 80% chance of a 50 bps hike when the Riksbank meets next in February. But market players do not expect any significant change from the world's lone major central bank dove.

Summary Hawkish central banks dampen hopes of peak ratesEuro zone bonds yields surgeHawkish message a reality check for markets -analystsLONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Forget a year-end rally in financial markets. The message from major central banks is loud and clear: the battle to tame inflation is far from over. Central banks in the United States, euro zone, Britain and Switzerland met on Wednesday and Thursday and all slowed the pace of aggressive rate moves. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said to expect more 50-basis-point rate increases for a period of time and that the ECB was not "pivoting" yet. Such sharp moves loosen the very financial conditions that central banks are trying to tighten in order to contain inflation.

☆ Analysis: Investors on alert for policy error after cheering slower rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

With inflation potentially peaking and recession looming, the risk of overtightening accelerating a downturn is on investors' watchlists for next year. "We're past the point of the big (Fed) policy mistake, we think they kind of made it," Robert Waldner, head of macro research at $1.3 trillion asset manager Invesco, said. Recent Fed research suggests the bank has exceeded the level called for by commonly followed policy rules and should target 3.52%, versus the 3.75%-4% it currently targets. Fed research, taking into account the premium on mortgages and corporate borrowing costs, has found financial conditions in September already reflected the equivalent of a 5.25% policy rate. I am worried the Fed may not be taking into account the lags in their monetary policy," Costerg said.

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