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The bullish view Just four of the 15 strategists expect the S & P 500 to end the year higher than current levels, albeit very slightly. He expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,500 — up 2.3% from its current level. Instead, Peng said the S & P 500 's performance will likely broaden over the second half of this year. She expects the S & P 500 to remain flat by the end of the year at 4,300. UBS expects the S & P 500 to end the year at 4,100 — a drop of 7% from current levels.

Persons: Stocks, BlackRock Karim Chedid, Jerome Powell, Karim Chedid, Chedid, Chadha, Charles Schwab Liz Ann Sonders, Ken Peng, Peng, Savita Subramanian, Andreas Bruckner, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Matt Rowe, Mark Haefele, Christian Abuide, Sameer Samana, Rowe, Wouter Sturkenboom, Sturkenboom Organizations: CNBC Pro, Investment, iShares EMEA, BlackRock, Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Citi Global Wealth Investments, Big Tech, Bank of, Equity, Nomura, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, UBS, Lombard, RBC Wealth Management, U.S, Global Market, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment, Nomura Private Capital, EMEA, APAC, Northern Trust, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: U.S, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, Northern, Samana

☆ Central banks in Asia could soon diverge from the Fed, Nomura says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Francois Lochon | Gamma-rapho | Getty ImagesCentral banks in Asia could start cutting rates earlier than the Federal Reserve, economists at Nomura predicted. "Our view of Asian central banks cutting policy rates ahead of the Fed in this cycle is based on the fundamental divergences between Asian and U.S. economies," Nomura economists wrote. China's producer prices have already entered deflation territory, while South Korea's inflation hovered around 2.7%, nearing its central bank's target. Seoul could start cutsNomura expects the Bank of Korea to be one of the first central banks after China to cut rates. They pointed to the central bank's governor Rhee Chang-yong shrugging off investor concerns about a weakening South Korean currency.

Persons: Francois Lochon, Sonal Varma, Nomura, lockdowns, BOK, Rhee Chang, Rhee Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, Nomura, Federal, Bank of, CNBC, Korean, U.S Locations: Seoul, South, Asia, U.S, China, sputter, Indonesia, Philippines, India, Korea, Singapore, Bank of Korea

[1/2] The BYD Atto 3 EV car is displayed at the 39 Thailand International Motor Expo, in Bangkok, Thailand, November 30, 2022. Siam Motors is in talks with several Chinese automakers about potential partnerships, particularly for high-end electric vehicles, vice president Sebastien Dupuy said in an interview, referring to previously unreported discussions. Thailand is Southeast Asia's largest car producer and exporter, and its second-largest sales market after Indonesia. Japanese automakers are so dominant that for decades they have treated it almost as an extension of their home market. Thailand's pitch to Chinese EV makers has been its existing supply base – built largely for Japanese automakers – and readiness to provide incentives.

Persons: Athit, Sebastien Dupuy, Pasit Chantharojwong, Wall's Ora, Tesla, Isuzu, Hajime Yamamoto, Yamamoto, Goldman Sachs, General Narit Therdsteerasukdi, Narong Sritalayon, BEV, Chayut, Daniel Leussink, Kevin Krolicki, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Siam Motors, Nissan Motors, EV, Reuters Graphics CHINA, JAPAN, Toyota Corolla, China's SAIC, Toyota, Honda, Nomura Research, Reuters, Thailand's, of Investment, Wall, Thomson Locations: Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand BANGKOK, Siam, BYD, China, Thai, Southeast, Indonesia, Japan, Europe, JAPAN Bangkok, Tokyo

☆ Oil dips as China demand fears offset tighter supply outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Jeslyn Lerh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, July 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped in Asian trade on Thursday as fears of a sluggish demand recovery in the world's top crude importer China offset the prospect of tighter supply, with top exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia cutting output. Brent crude futures dipped 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $76.44 a barrel at 0650 GMT, after settling higher 0.5% the previous day. "Near-term, a move above the key $80.00 level may be needed to provide some conviction for the bulls," Yeap added. Weighing on the demand outlook, China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday, as weakening demand weighed on post-pandemic recovery momentum. Analysts had expected a drop in crude inventories of about 1 million barrels in a Reuters poll.

Persons: Jun Rong, Yeap, Tatsufumi Okoshi, Okoshi, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Yuka Obayashi, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, IG, Nomura Securities, Saudi, American Petroleum Institute, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Saudi, OPEC, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ Stocks slide, US yields climb amid hawkish Fed, China tensions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a fresh four-month high in Tokyo trading, and the dollar extended its rise against major peers. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) dropped 0.7%, after a 0.4% slide for the world index (.MIWO00000PUS) on Wednesday. U.S. E-mini stock futures pointed to a 0.1% lower restart for the S&P 500 (.SPX), following its overnight 0.2% decline. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed as high as 3.957% in Tokyo trading, after surging some 9 basis points overnight. Against the yen, though, the dollar's advances were conspicuously subdued, considering the currency pair's traditional close relationship with long-term U.S. yields.

Persons: HSI, Janet Yellen, Matt Simpson, Matsuzawa, Kevin Buckland Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Nikkei, Treasury, U.S, Nomura Securities, Bank of Japan's, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Asia, Pacific, China, United States, Tokyo, Taiwan, ., U.S, Beijing, Saudi Arabia, Russia

TOKYO, July 6 (Reuters) - Oil prices moved little in early Asian trade on Thursday as the prospect of tighter supply with output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia and a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stocks were offset by worries over a sluggish demand recovery in China. Brent crude futures was down 2 cents to $76.63 a barrel by 0038 GMT after settling up 0.5% the previous day. "Saudi's supply curb announcement and expectations for a possible further reduction are supporting oil prices," said Tatsufumi Okoshi, senior economist at Nomura Securities, adding a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. crude stocks also supported sentiment. U.S. crude stocks fell by about 4.4 million barrels in the week ended June 30, while gasoline and distillate inventories rose, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Analysts had expected a drop in crude inventories of about 1 million barrels in a Reuters poll.

Persons: Tatsufumi Okoshi, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Yuka Obayashi, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Nomura Securities, American Petroleum Institute, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Saudi, OPEC

☆ China's services activity softens as recovery falters - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 52.5 from 55.6 in May, marking the sixth straight month of expansion. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."

Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, COVID, China

☆ China's services activity softens as recovery falters, private survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday, as weakening demand weighed on post-pandemic recovery momentum. The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."

Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight Locations: China, Covid

The research arm of BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, shifted its view on Japanese equities to neutral from underweight. "We are looking for more evidence of corporate reform to support the enthusiasm for its equity markets that has gripped foreign investors so far this year," wrote analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute, in its mid-year outlook report last week. "It's not the case that we've already seen the completion of offshore investors' quite aggressive investment in Japan equity markets," said Nomura's chief equity strategist for Japan, Yunosuke Ikeda. "Now, a lot of asset owners have decided just not to invest in China any more, and that's made Japan the top dog in Asia." Many analysts and investors, though, consider the declines a healthy and necessary retracement before the next leg higher, with 35,000 often touted as a target for this year as slower-moving foreign investors start to buy in size.

Persons: Nomura, It's, Yunosuke Ikeda, Archie Ciganer, Rowe Price, Ciganer, that's, Warren Buffett, Vikas Pershad, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Junko Fujita, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nikkei, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nomura Securities, Graphics, G Investments, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, BlackRock, China, Asia, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ China's youth unemployment is so dire that it's inspired recent college grads to post pictures of themselves sprawled on the ground in 'zombie-style' poses
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China's youth unemployment rate hit a record high of 20.8% in May. On June 13, the Radii media outlet tweeted a photo collage of some of these graduating students donning black or purple graduation gowns in various poses. While this particular pose is trending this year, this graduation season's posts were often accompanied by other happier pictures of the graduating students. It also isn't the first time graduates in China have taken unusual graduation photos, according to posts seen by Insider on Xiaohongshu. These trending poses of despondence come as China's youth unemployment rate hit a record high of 20.8% in May, according to official statistics.

Persons: —, despondence, Nomura, Brenda Lu, Lu Organizations: Service, CNBC, Washington Post Locations: China

The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%. "This indicates the urgent need for a more powerful package of policy measures... to ensure the annual growth targets," he added. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. China's cabinet this month pledged to promote a sustained economic recovery "in a timely manner".

Persons: Rob Carnell, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Li Qiang, ING's Carnell, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, ING, Capital Economics, PMI, Jones, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Pacific, Tianjin, Beijing

BEIJING, June 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a slower pace, an official factory survey showed on Friday, as pressure builds for policymakers to release more stimulus to shore up weak demand. "Economic momentum is still quite weak in China," said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management in a note. "It is not clear if the weak economic data would push the government to launch aggressive stimulus measures soon," he added. The official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, dropped to 52.3 from 52.9.

Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Nomura, Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, PMI, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Tianjin, Beijing

☆ China's previous monetary stimulus 'just isn't working,' a private survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"For months, analysts have pumped the idea that Beijing has little choice but big-bang monetary easing," said Leland Miller, chief executive of China Beige Book. Shehzad Qazi Managing director, China Beige BookAs the report pointed out, "We already have monetary stimulus, it just isn't working." Major Wall Street banks — from Goldman Sachs and Bank of America to UBS and Nomura — recently cut their China growth projections. China Beige Book's survey involved 4,604 respondents in China across two periods: in mid-April, and from mid-May to mid-June. Derek Scissors Chief economist, China Beige Book

Persons: Leland Miller, it's, Shehzad Qazi, Goldman Sachs, Premier Li Qiang, Derek Scissors Organizations: Getty, People's Bank of China, China, Bank of America, UBS, Nomura, realtors, Premier Locations: China, Beijing, U.S

[1/2] A worker works on a production line at a factory of a ship equipments manufacturer, in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China March 2, 2020. China Daily via REUTERSBEIJING, June 29 (Reuters) - China's factory activity likely contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a marginally slower pace, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underscoring the need for further policy stimulus to counter weak demand at home and abroad. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. The highest reading in the poll was 49.7, still short of breaking into expansion territory, while the lowest reading was 48.0.

Persons: Nomura, Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Madhumita Gokhale, Anant Chandak, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Thomson Locations: Nantong, Jiangsu province, China, REUTERS BEIJING, Tianjin, Bengaluru

☆ A.I., rate cuts and Japan's rebound: Asia stocks are looking 'much more promising' than U.S. peers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The Japanese flag flutters over the Bank of Japan (BoJ) head office building (bottom) in Tokyo on April 27, 2022. At first glance, Asian stocks as a whole have more modest gains so far this year compared with their U.S. and European counterparts. But Asia is more economically diverse than Europe and the U.S., and there are still bright spots in the region, especially in Japan and South Korea. In April, the BOJ announced it will conduct a "a broad-perspective review of [its] monetary policy," which could span 12-18 months. But Lombard Odier still expects the BOJ to end the yield curve control policy before this review is over.

Persons: Kazuhiro Nogi, Nomura, Daniela Gombert, bode, Gombert, Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Lombard Odier, Morgan Stanley, Google's Bard, Ernie Bot, Lombard, Marco Barresi, Barresi Organizations: Bank of Japan, Afp, Getty, U.S, Asia, Nomura, Nikkei, Bank of, Private, U.S . Federal, Chips, Lombard Odier Locations: Tokyo, Asia, Europe, U.S, Japan, South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, Bank of Japan, Indonesia, A.I, OpenAI, Taiwan, China

With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.

Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia

☆ Markets are pricing in rate cuts too soon, IMF's Gopinath says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Major central banks will have to keep interest rates high for much longer than some investors expect, Gita Gopinath, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told CNBC Tuesday. "Now this is unlike, for instance, what several markets expect, which is that things are going to come down very quickly in terms of rates. The ECB began raising rates in July 2022 and has increased its main rate from -0.5% to 3.5% since then. Nonetheless, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has suggested there could be at least two more rate hikes this year. In a note to clients on Friday, Nomura said it expects both the ECB and the Bank of England to announce rate cuts in about a year's time.

Persons: Gita Gopinath, Gopinath, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Jerome Powell, Nomura Organizations: International Monetary Fund, CNBC, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of England Locations: Sintra , Portugal, Europe

☆ China’s new EV subsidies might not be enough to bolster slowing growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-22 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Cadillac advertises for its electric car in Shanghai on May 23, 2023. Hugo Hu | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesBEIJING — Subsidies for electric cars aren't enough to boost growth in China's slowing economy. One of the few detailed stimulus plans Beijing has announced this year extends tax breaks for electric car purchases, according to documents released Wednesday. He was speaking about the electric car market in general. China still leads globally in the installation of public fast charging stations – almost 90% of the global growth in such chargers last year, the IEA said.

Persons: Hugo Hu, China haven't, Craig Zeng, Zeng, Nomura Organizations: Getty, CNBC, International Energy Agency, State Council Locations: Shanghai, BEIJING, Beijing, China

☆ Bank of England poised to raise rates after inflation shock
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists polled by Reuters last week were unanimous that the BoE would raise rates to 4.75%, their highest since 2008, from 4.5%. But after inflation held at 8.7% in May, financial markets priced in a nearly 50% chance that the BoE would opt for a bigger move and raise rates by half a percentage point. "The UK has a uniquely bad inflation problem," Krishna Guha, a vice chairman at U.S. investment banking advisory firm Evercore, said. Core inflation - which strips out more volatile prices to show an underlying trend - rose to a 31-year high in May. "Unfortunately, the Bank of England is in a situation where they will have to hike until something breaks," he said.

Persons: BoE, Tomasz Wieladek, Rowe Price, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Rishi Sunak, Andrew Bailey, Megan Greene, Wieladek, David Milliken, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Sky News, MPC, Nomura, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, United States

☆ Automakers are replacing decades of know-how with strategies from Tesla's playbook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Alexa St. John | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Auto companies need EV battery supply more than ever, but the costs are adding up. Prices and a push to use local materials have carmakers investing in in-house battery supply. That means car companies are seeking an alternative and racing to secure their battery supply in the US. But the pandemic — and other disruptions, like natural disasters — shed a light on just how vulnerable that can also make auto companies. It's complicated and time-consuming, but may ultimately be the best way car companies can get closer to lowering the cost of new EVs.

Persons: Tesla, they've, They've, Peter Maithel, Julian Stratenschulte, There's, We've, Matt Sculnick, Nomura, Rivian, —, Alvarez, Tony Lynch, Kelley Organizations: Auto, EV, Morning, Infor, Volkswagen, Getty, Marsal, GM, Ford Locations: Europe, Asia, China, Illinois

☆ China central bank seen cutting medium-term policy rate: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is widely expected to cut the borrowing cost of medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months on Thursday, after it lowered two key short-term policy rates, a Reuters poll showed. China remains an outlier among global central banks as it loosens monetary policy to shore up a stalling recovery but further rate cuts will widen the yield gap with U.S. assets and risk greater outflows. The MLF rate serves as a guide to the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR), and markets usually use the medium-term rate as a precursor to any changes to the lending benchmark. Looking ahead, we expect another 10bp cut in the MLF rate in 3Q23." The PBOC last cut the MLF rate in August 2022 to prop up the broad economy disrupted by stringent zero-COVID measures.

Persons: Ting Lu, Larry Hu, Wu Fang, Winni Zhou, Tom Westbrook, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Nomura, Macquarie, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, China, lockstep

☆ Economic stimulus in China would be a win for 3 stocks tied to Chinese consumers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The recovery in China has been much slower than what other major countries experienced when they lifted their pandemic restrictions. Still, the Chinese consumer has proved to be resilient in the face of these broader economic challenges. It marked the fastest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2022, fueled by higher spending from Chinese consumers. Club stock results Recent financial results from our China-exposed companies show that Chinese consumers have been holding up even as broader economic recovery is delayed. China is a growth market for each company and improvement in economic activity there should be a catalyst for these stocks.

Persons: Estee Lauder, —, Ting Lu, WYNN, hasn't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jason Lee Organizations: Starbucks, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, China Index Academy, National Bureau of Statistics, Club, Gaming, Prestige, CNBC Locations: China, China's, Beijing, Macao, Asia, SBUX

☆ Japan optimism has been fueled by 'game-changing' reforms and Warren Buffett: Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The Tokyo Exchange Group recently finalized its market restructuring rules. Warren Buffett's bullish calls on Japanese equities has also helped boost confidence among foreign investors. It could in turn lead to a domino effect among other Japanese companies once the big players start to make changes. Corporate governance is the "third arrow" of the three core tenets of Abenomics — monetary easing and fiscal stimulus are the other two. Buffett's May disclosures helped spur 10 straight weeks of net foreign purchases of Japanese equities.

Persons: Richard A, Brooks, Oliver Lee, Warren Buffett's bullish, —, Yunosuke Ikeda, Nomura's Ikeda, Shinzo Abe, Warren, Berkshire, Asli, Shuntaro Takeuchi, Matthews Asia, Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, that's, Matthews Asia's Takeuchi, We're, Oliver Lee Eastspring, Eastspring's Lee Organizations: Afp, Getty, Nikkei, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Tokyo Exchange Group, CNBC, Tokyo bourse, Berkshire Hathaway, Kyoto, Investing, Buffett, Foreigners, Japan Ministry of Finance, Kyoto University's Graduate School of Management, Graduate School of Economics, Mitsui & Co, Hitachi Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Singapore, Abenomics, San Francisco

Economists polled by Reuters had expected new yuan loans would jump to 1.6 trillion yuan last month, versus 718.8 billion yuan in April and against 1.89 trillion yuan a year earlier. Outstanding yuan loans in May grew 11.4% on year compared with 11.8% growth the previous month. Household loans including mortgages were up 367.2 billion yuan in May, versus a contraction of 241.1 billion yuan in April. Corporate loans rose to 855.8 billion yuan in May from 683.9 billion yuan in April, central bank data showed. In May, TSF rose to 1.56 trillion yuan from 1.22 trillion yuan in April.

Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Yi Gang, Nomura, TSF, Qiaoyi Li, Judy Hua, Kevin Yao, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: People's Bank of China, Reuters, PMI, Capital, Analysts, U.S, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Beijing, U.S . Federal, TSF

Companies United States of America FollowJune 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices traded up on Tuesday on bargain hunting, recovering some ground from the previous day's plunge, but gains were limited as investors remained cautious ahead of key policy decisions by the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks. Oil prices could fall further because of China's faltering economic recovery, he added, predicting WTI would trade in the range of $62.50 to $75 a barrel during the summer, but mainly below $70 a barrel. Most market participants expect the U.S. central bank to leave interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting. The Fed's rate hikes have strengthened the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and weighing on prices. "In our view, the latest fall in oil prices increases the probability Saudi Arabia will at least extend supply cuts currently in place for July," said National Australia Bank analysts in a note.

Persons: Tatsufumi Okoshi, Nomura's Okoshi, Yuka Obayashi, Emily Chow, Jamie Freed, Sonali Paul Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, . West Texas, Nomura Securities, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, of Petroleum Exporting, International Energy Agency, National Australia Bank, Thomson Locations: States, America, Saudi Arabia, U.S, China, Saudi, Tokyo, Singapore

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