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CNN —The nominees for the 80th Golden Globe Awards were announced on Monday. Mayan Lopez and Selenis Leyva, two of the stars from “Lopez vs. Lopez,” announced the range of film and television nominees as selected by members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA). Favored Oscars contender “The Banshees of Inisherin” led the film categories, with nominations including best musical or comedy film. It stars Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson. The ceremony, which was not broadcast last January over controversy surrounding the HFPA, will return to NBC on Jan. 10.
Reuters GraphicsIt syncs with financial market measures like the inverted Treasury yield curve flashing warning lights about a coming recession. "I don't think the Fed will be comfortable cutting rates until unemployment gets close to 5%, or inflation declines south of 3%. Fed policymakers will update their forecasts for unemployment and inflation at the end of their Dec. 13-14 meeting, with some already previewing snippets of their updated outlooks. Powell said he believes rates will ultimately need to go "somewhat higher" than the 4.6% policymakers projected in September. But, he said, "we wouldn't just raise rates and try to crash the economy and then clean up afterwards."
Fed officials from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, often at opposite ends of recent policy debates, have both discussed rates possibly rising above 5% next year. If there is concern about crossing that line, Fed officials have not voiced it. With the expected half-point increase at the next meeting, the policy rate will end the year in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. The fed funds rate was seen ending 2023 at 4.6%. The upcoming projections will show that final destination perhaps coming into view, and give a better assessment of the possible cost as well.
Morning Bid: Why payrolls might not matter to markets
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
It's payrolls Friday, yet the most keenly awaited U.S. economic data point may not hold much sway over markets that are already behaving as if the U.S. tightening cycle is over. If it holds at current levels, this would mark one of the biggest weekly drops in the last two years . One line of argument goes that to justify the move seen in government bond markets, the Fed needs to be more or less done in December. So, where does this all leave the November non-farm payrolls report out at 1330 GMT? In the light of that data, markets may be anticipating a lower number later on.
CNN —It’s a name so iconic, he comes with his own theme song, and boy, is it a sweet sound. In the new teaser trailer for “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” Harrison Ford returns as the titular hero archaeologist, this time alongside “Fleabag” star Phoebe Waller-Bridge. Colonel Weber (Thomas Kretschmann) and Doctor Jürgen Voller (Mads Mikkelsen) in "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny." Lucasfilm Ltd.“Indiana Jones movies are about mystery and adventure but they’re also about heart,” he said. After the audience reacted to the mention of this being his last film in the role, he joked, “This is it.
LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The dollar eased from a one-week high on Wednesday ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while optimism over a possible loosening in China's COVID restrictions set it on course for its biggest monthly loss since late 2010. But after almost two years of near-relentless acceleration in inflation, markets could welcome any sign that the worst may be over. European assets got a lift on Tuesday after inflation in Spain and a number of major German states cooled. It has lost around 4.3% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2010 , according to Refinitiv data. The offshore yuan gained ground against the dollar, which fell 1% to 7.0802.
The risk-sensitive New Zealand and Aussie dollars rose, while the offshore Chinese yuan hovered near a one-week peak. "But there's a back and forth between dollar selling and dollar strength, because earlier in the week, all we could talk about was hawkish Fedspeak," he added. The euro ticked up 0.11% to $1.0339, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The New Zealand dollar strengthened 0.29% to $0.6218 while the Aussie adding 0.1% to $0.66935. "Expectations for an end to China's zero‑covid policy in coming months, combined with more targeted restrictions in the meantime, can provide support to CNH, AUD and NZD."
China's offshore yuan traded near a one-week high as traders returned to wagering on a reopening from strangling COVID-19 curbs. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 138.60 yen , as the pair continued to consolidate following a bounce from a three-month low of 137.50 on Monday. The euro ticked up 0.15% to $1.03435, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The Aussie rose 0.11% to $0.66945, consolidating in the middle of its range of the past couple of weeks. Optimism about a China reopening was balanced against an easing in Australian inflation, reducing the pressure for Reserve Bank rate hikes, and weak Chinese purchasing manager surveys.
CNN Business —The Federal Reserve could pull back on the pace of its aggressive rate hikes as soon as December, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday at an economic forum. The most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed Wednesday that there were almost 1.7 jobs available for every job seeker in October. The decline in job openings is a positive development, Powell said Wednesday. And the rate hikes could be doing more harm than good. Since rate hikes can take months, even years, to flow through the economy, the Fed now appears to be adopting a “lower and slower” model of smaller rate hikes over a longer period.
China's offshore yuan traded near a one-week high as traders returned to wagering on a reopening from strangling Covid-19 curbs. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 138.60 yen , as the pair continued to consolidate following a bounce from a three-month low of 137.50 on Monday. The euro ticked up 0.15% to $1.03435, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The Aussie rose 0.11% to $0.66945, consolidating in the middle of its range of the past couple of weeks. Optimism about a China reopening was balanced against an easing in Australian inflation, reducing the pressure for Reserve Bank rate hikes, and weak Chinese purchasing manager surveys.
Morning Bid: Uneasy Chair
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. While inflation looks past its peak, labour markets remain super tight and Powell speaks before another crucial nationwide employment report on Friday. Futures market expectations for peak Fed rates next May ticked back above 5% ahead of the speech, with about 35 basis points of rate cuts from there still priced by yearend. China and Hong Kong shares extended gains on Wednesday as market participants cheered an easing of COVID-19 measures in Guangzhou city. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
chartAnd although Wall Street closed in the red on Tuesday, the VIX 'fear index' fell - a sign investors are sanguine about downside risks. Powell and colleagues will be frustrated that U.S. financial conditions have eased in recent weeks despite their increasingly tough stance on inflation. Since Wall Street bottomed in mid-October, Goldman's financial conditions index has fallen almost 100 basis points, mainly thanks to the rebound in stocks. If Powell wants to address that, he will have to find the words to get that message across. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoLONDON, Nov 29 - A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. They also cheered a relaxation of regulations on developer fundraising that eases the smouldering property sector bust. A crackdown on demonstrations happened simultaneously, with Chinese authorities making inquiries into some protesters as police flooded the city's streets. Strikingly, hawkish Dutch central banker Klaus Knot also said forecasts of recession may be overdone and fears of "overtightening" policy were a "joke". His boss European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said euro zone inflation, which is expected to ease this month but remain above 10%, has not yet peaked, encouraging speculation of another swingeing 75 basis point interest rate rise next month.
The euro rose ahead of inflation data due on Wednesday. The Aussie , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, rose 1.2% to $0.6734. EURO ZONE INFLATIONThe euro was up 0.4% at $1.0380, not far from a five-month peak of $1.0497 hit on Monday. Flash euro zone inflation figures for November are due on Wednesday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation to come in at 10.4% year-on-year. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed needed to raise interest rates quite a bit further, while New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed similar views.
The euro , which surged to a five-month peak of $1.0497 overnight, later reversed those gains following a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower by 0.1% at 106.50, after rising 0.5% overnight. The greenback had extended gains after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said overnight that the Fed needs to raise interest rates quite a bit further. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike rates by an additional 50 basis points when it meets on Dec. 13-14. The offshore yuan reversed some of its losses in the previous session and was about 0.4% higher at 7.2136 per dollar.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last down by around 4 basis points to 3.661% at 6:31 a.m. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at around 4.434% after dipping by more than 3 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on Tuesday as investors closely watched Covid developments in China and digested comments from Federal Reserve officials on monetary policy plans. Investors closely followed Covid developments in China as uncertainty about the country's economic reopening has spread in recent weeks. Speaking at a virtual event hosted by the Economic Club of New York on Monday, New York Fed president John Williams said the central bank had to continue hiking rates for now.
Gold edges up on dollar dip; Fed policy cues remain key
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices ticked up on Tuesday, helped by a softer dollar, while market participants awaited more clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike stance. Fed Presidents James Bullard and John Williams said there was a long way to go to fight inflation. Gold is also sensitive to rising interest rates as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. "Investors will now turn attention to U.S. economic data this week for any signs the Fed may ease its aggressive rate hikes," ANZ said in a note.
Fed officials said the inflation fight isn't over and they don't expect to cut interest rates soon. Their words were a "reality check" and "bucket of cold water" for investors, Christopher Smart said. The top strategist expects weak growth, stubborn inflation, and rates to peak around 5% next year. Instead of rebounding, the US economy will shrink and face stubborn price increases next year, Christopher Smart has said. "It is a reality check," Barings' chief global strategist continued, noting investors have repeatedly shrugged off the Fed's hawkish messaging in recent months.
Dollar holds firm as China's Covid-related worries weigh
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The euro , which surged to a five-month peak of $1.0497 overnight, later reversed those gains following a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower by 0.1% at 106.50, after rising 0.5% overnight. The greenback had extended gains after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said overnight that the Fed needs to raise interest rates quite a bit further. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike rates by an additional 50 basis points when it meets on Dec. 13-14. The offshore yuan reversed some of its losses in the previous session and was about 0.4% higher at 7.2136 per dollar.
Nov 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The social unrest flaring up across China - and how Beijing responds to it - remains front and center for Asian markets, suggesting the sentiment driving trading on Tuesday will again be negative. Let's start with China, where the protests against strict zero-COVID policy and restrictions on freedoms are spreading. A little more surprising, however, given the scale of the unrest, is that the declines have been contained and orderly. If anyone was in any doubt, the hawks at the big central banks are not backing down.
The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) for example had risen more than 10% in the last month and almost 20% since September. "Some of this is just a bit of consolidation from the last few weeks," she said, noting that stocks had taken a leg lower when Treasury yields gained and oil prices switched from red to green on Monday as the prospect of higher oil prices brought inflation concerns back to the forefront. Along with inflation trends, investors are also monitoring Federal Reserve commentary for any clues on its future rate hiking path. Earlier, U.S. crude oil futures had fallen to December 2021 levels on concerns about demand in China - the world's biggest crude importer. A view of a giant display of stock indexes, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Shanghai, China, October 24, 2022.
Fed could cut interest rates in 2024, Williams says
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
"I do see a point probably in 2024 that we'll start bringing down nominal interest rates because inflation is coming down." While Williams pointed to some signs of progress in bringing down inflation, he said interest rates needed to rise further. "How high those rates need to be will depend on how the economy and inflation evolve," Williams said. The Fed has pushed through oversized 75-basis-point rate increases at its last four policy meetings, bringing the target rate to the current 3.75%-4.00% range. That's opened the door to the prospect the Fed could raise its target rate by 50 basis points at the next gathering.
A senior Federal Reserve official said he expects inflation pressures to recede over the next year but cautioned the central bank will continue to have its work cut out because prices may decelerate to levels still above the Fed’s 2% target. “There is still more work to do,” said New York Fed President John Williams in a speech set for delivery on Monday.
Nov 29 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The social unrest flaring up across China - and how Beijing responds to it - remains front and center for Asian markets, suggesting the sentiment driving trading on Tuesday will again be negative. Let's start with China, where the protests against strict zero-COVID policy and restrictions on freedoms are spreading. A little more surprising, however, given the scale of the unrest, is that the declines have been contained and orderly. Does the unrest accelerate a re-opening of the economy, or does it prompt President Xi Jingping to double down?
Morning Bid: China, COVID and Crude
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Rare anti-government unrest across China's cities over the weekend has unnerved world markets, weakening crude oil prices and adding fresh political risks to a fragile year-end. Wary that both the unrest and the COVID crunch compound the economic hit to China and the world, the initial market reaction on Monday was to sell Chinese stocks, the yuan and oil - with crude oil prices falling to close to $80 per barrel, their lowest since January. A U.S. regulatory clampdown on Chinese tech giants, citing national security concerns, also weighed on shares of tech firms. As U.S. markets return after the Thanksgiving weekend, attention will return to Federal Reserve tightening, the labour market and inflation picture. The German banking giant said it expected U.S. output to drop 2% over the whole year, euro zone output to decline 1% and world economic growth to slow to a recessionary 2%.
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