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☆ A famed recession indicator is flashing red even as financial markets price in zero chance of a downturn in the coming year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A handful of indicators suggest a hard landing is on the way, top economist David Rosenberg warned. A famed recession indicator in the job market is flashing levels similar to the last three downturns. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The Rosenberg Research founder pointed to several warning signs the US could be on the precipice of a downturn, despite the economy looking strong on the surface. In particular, he pointed to the Sahm Rule — a famous recession indicator that flashes when the three-month moving average of the US unemployment rate climbs 50 basis points from a 12-month low.

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research

☆ Apple focusing on home robots over AI would be a 'horror show' for the company, Wedbush's Dan Ives says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewApple's recently announced foray into developing home robots could end up being a "horror show" for the company, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. Ives thinks such a shift would be detrimental to Apple, which should instead be primarily focused on leaning into artificial intelligence. Even amid his concern around Apple's home robots, Ives remains bullish on the company's stock trajectory over the medium-term. But that projection hinges on Apple continuing to put its AI at the forefront of its priorities, the analysts suggested.

Persons: —, Dan Ives, Ives, Cook, Gene Munster, Munster, Apple Organizations: Service, CNBC, Bloomberg, Apple, Business, Department of Justice Locations: China, Cupertino

☆ The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last 120 years. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has started to decline in the past year, top economist Lakshman Achuthan said. AdvertisementThe US economy is flashing a classic recession warning that has only shown a false positive once in the last century, according to top economist Lakshman Achuthan. AdvertisementHiring strength seems to lie in non-discretionary areas of the market — which typically occurs before a recession, Achuthan said, as consumers prioritize needs over wants. Job growth in education and health rose around 4% last year, though job growth in every other sector trended near 0%, ECRI data shows.

Persons: Lakshman Achuthan, —, Achuthan, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Cycle Research, Rosenberg Research, Atlanta Fed

☆ Tesla can turn around its 'trainwreck' quarter if Elon Musk stops his distractions and takes back control, Wedbush's Dan Ives says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Elon Musk could turn around Tesla's 'trainwreck into a brick wall," Wedbush's Dan Ives said. But better days ahead will hinge on Musk reining in his distractions and retaking control, Ives said. AdvertisementTesla may be able to turn things around after seeing a "nightmare" first quarter, according to Wedbush's Dan Ives. That's made the first quarter an "unmitigated disaster" for Tesla, Ives said in a recent note, also describing the last quarter as a "black eye" and a "trainwreck into a brick wall" for Tesla. In terms of 1Q, this was just a massively soft quarter," Ives said to BNN Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Persons: Elon, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Tesla, Ives, —, That's, We've, BNN, It's, Elon Musk's, Musk, Wedbush, Wells Organizations: Service, Tesla, BNN Bloomberg, Elon, JPMorgan Locations: China, Texas, Delaware, Wells Fargo

☆ Trump Media is suing its cofounders, alleging they failed 'spectacularly' and did 'significant damage' to the business
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Trump's media company is suing its cofounders, alleging they failed the business before its SPAC deal. AdvertisementTrump Media is suing its cofounders, alleging they failed the company and did "significant damage" to its business, according to documents filed in a Florida civil court. Moss and Litinsky had the potential to "profit handsomely" if Trump Media completed its merger deal. The filing says: "Moss and Litinsky failed spectacularly at every turn. Trump Media did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Persons: Wesley Moss, Andrew Litinsky, Moss, —, Trump, Patrick Orlando, Litinsky Organizations: TMTG, Service, Trump Media, Corp, United Atlantic Ventures, Orlando's, Trump, DWAC, Company Locations: Florida

☆ The Fed's first rate cut is still on pace for June with inflation dropping like a rock, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's first rate cut is still on track to come in June, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. Yet investors are only pricing in a 57% chance of a rate cut by June, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementThe Fed is still poised to issue its first rate cut in June as the pace of inflation continues to slow, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. All that points to a Fed that could be poised to cut rates sooner than markets are expecting, which is good news for stocks. Meanwhile, just 57% of investors are expecting the Fed to issue the first rate cut in June.

Persons: Fundstrat's Tom Lee, —, Tom Lee, Lee, That's, Mohamed El Organizations: Service, Fed, University of Michigan's, France —, Traders Locations: France

☆ A record 550 cities now have average home values above $1 million
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

A record number of US cities have an average home price of more than $1 million. AdvertisementA record number of US cities have an average home value of more than $1 million — a sign that the housing market is becoming increasingly out-of-reach for some Americans as prices continue to soar. The US has 550 cities where the typical home value is north of seven figures, according to a recent Zillow report. That's the highest number of so-called "million-dollar" cities ever recorded, the real-estate-listings site said, up from 491 a year ago. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Zillow, — Organizations: Service, Business Locations: California

☆ Putin wants to crack down on immigration after the Moscow attack. That would make the nation's labor shortage even worse.
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Russia is looking to crack down on migrants after the terrorist attack at a Moscow concert hall. But those measures could end up harming its economy, because there's already a shortage of available workers. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRussia's immigration crackdown could end up delivering another serious blow to its economy, with the nation already suffering from a severe shortage of workers.

Persons: there's, — Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Business Locations: Russia, Moscow

☆ Russia could turn on Putin as the nation's economic strength wanes and sanctions keep tightening, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Russia's economic strength is likely to wane this year, economists say. Putin's economic fantasyThe tailspin Sonnenfeld, Tian, and Guriev are predicting seems contradictory to what Russia is presenting on the surface. Russian inflation is also high, clocking in at 7.58%, according to data from Russia's economic ministry. Guriev doesn't believe Russia's economy will completely unravel, as central bankers will work hard to limit the damage. Advertisement"It's unlikely the Russian economy will spiral into a macroeconomic meltdown, and that the Russian political system will," he said.

Persons: Putin, Joe Biden, —, Vladimir Putin, Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, Steven Tian, Tian, Trump's, Sergei Guriev, Sonnenfeld, he's, Guriev, Putin's Organizations: Service, Yale, London Business School, Russia Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Moscow, Soviet

☆ The housing market is thawing as an increasing number of 'mortgage lock' homes go up for sale, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market looks to be gradually approaching a recovery. A growing number of mortgage-locked homes are going up for sale, JPMorgan said. AdvertisementThe housing market looks like it's starting to thaw, thanks to a growing number of mortgage-locked sellers who are opting to put their homes on the market anyway, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. Homeowners could now be more willing to dip into the housing market, as many are realizing high mortgage rates aren't going away anytime soon, real estate economists have said. Researchers from the Federal Housing Finance Agency recently warned that the mortgage lock-in effect could linger for years to come, barring a sudden drop in mortgage rates.

Persons: —, Stephanie Aliaga, Aliaga Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Asset Management, National Association of Realtors, Homeowners, Fed, Buyers, Federal Housing Finance Agency

☆ The Fed needs to 'kill the zombie' with a high-rate-induced recession before investors should jump in to buy more stocks, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors need to wait for a recession and accompanying rate cuts before putting more cash into stocks, Canaccord's Tony Dwyer says. Under such a scenario, the Fed would leave interest rates higher for longer to induce a downturn, then cut rates, Dwyer says. That's actually good news for investors, Dwyer said, as a downturn is the buying opportunity investors need to wait for:"You need to kill the zombie. A slowing economy could push the Fed to issue rate cuts — the monetary easing tool investors have been eagerly anticipating. Some Wall Street forecasters have warned interest rates could stay higher-for-longer as the Fed is looking to avoid a resurgence in inflation.

Persons: Canaccord's Tony Dwyer, Dwyer, —, Tony Dwyer, Canaccord, that's, haven't, Russell Organizations: Service, CNBC, of Labor Statistics, New York Fed

☆ Home prices will 'go through the roof' as soon as rates come down a single percentage point, 'Shark Tank' investor Barbara Corcoran says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Home prices will soar the moment mortgage rates drop to 6%, Barbara Cocoran predicted. The "Shark Tank" investor is anticipating a wave of buyers coming to market once rates fall one percentage point. Buyers waiting for rates to come down may wind up paying more in the end, she warned. Real estate economists say that mortgage rates aren't primed for a significant drop anytime soon. Mortgage rates are influenced by real interest rates in the economy, and the Fed has hinted it could keep rates higher for longer as it continues to monitor inflation.

Persons: Barbara Cocoran, —, Barbara Corcoran, Cocoran, Freddie Mac, Corcoran, meanwhile Organizations: Service, Fox Business Network, Corcoran Group

☆ The Fed could cut rates 5 times in 2025 with the US economy bound to slow, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed could cut rates five times in 2025, according to S&P Global Ratings' global chief economist. A slowing US economy will give the Fed the green light to cut, the firm predicted. That implies the Fed will lower rates by 2 full percentage points as inflation continues to cool. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Fed could cut rates as many as five times next year, as the US economy can't keep its hot pace of growth forever, according to Paul Gruenwald, S&P Global Ratings' global chief economist.

Persons: —, Paul Gruenwald, Gruenwald Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Business

☆ The Fed is going to make inflation worse with rate-cut promises, former central banker says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed could be making inflation even hotter with its promises of rate cuts. That's according to former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who says the central bank is "goosing" the economy. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve could be mucking up the economy with its promises that it will cut interest rates later this year, according to former central banker Kevin Warsh. Related stories"The Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve … are goosing this economy," Warsh said. "A Fed promising to cut rates even as asset prices are melting up."

Persons: Kevin Warsh, —, Warsh Organizations: Service, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury Department, Federal

☆ 3 things America can do to solve its retirement crisis, according to BlackRock chief Larry Fink
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewAmerica has a real retirement crisis on its hands — and there are three things it can do to help solve it, according to BlackRock chief Larry Fink. In his annual letter to investors, the CEO of the world's biggest asset manager pointed to an unfolding crisis for current and future retirees. 46% of Americans aged 55-65 don't have any cash invested in a personal retirement account, according to 2022 Census data. Help retirees spend their savingsMost retirees are uncomfortable dipping into their pile of savings. Give young people a reason to want to investFear is one of the main obstacles preventing young people from investing in their retirement, Fink said.

Persons: —, Larry Fink, Fink, " Fink, AARP —, BlackRock, I've, Gen Zers Organizations: Service, BlackRock, Center for Retirement Research, Business, Security, Congressional, Office, Insurance Trust Fund, Social Security, AARP, University of Michigan, America, McKinsey & Company Locations: America, Australia, BlackRock

☆ 3 ways Russia's war-time economy is set to weaken after a surprisingly strong 2023
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewRussia's economy is set to weaken this year, according to researchers from Finland's central bank. Russia won't be able to maintain the surprisingly strong growth it saw, the Bank of Finland's Institute for Emerging Economies said in a recent report. That's a stark contrast from what Russia saw last year, with its economy growing 3.6%, according to Russia's federal statistics service. Russia's long-term potential growth rate, in particular, has been reduced by the shift to a wartime economy," the report said. AdvertisementThe report pointed to three areas of the Russian economy that could take a hit.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Bank of Finland's Institute, Emerging Economies, Business, Russia, Ukraine, United Nations, Russian Academy of Science's Institute of Economics Locations: Russia, Russian, Ukraine, Moscow

☆ Why buying a home isn't likely to get much cheaper even under Biden's housing plan
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Biden has a plan to make housing more affordable, but prices might be stuck in the stratosphere. "The effect on the housing affordability crisis is going to be muted. Some of Biden's housing affordability measures would fuel demand further at a time when supply is still historically tight, according to Lawrence Yun, the chief economist of NAR. But the problem with the housing market isn't really that there isn't enough money going toward housing. It's more the red tape and the local opposition that has been the biggest barrier to building housing," Fairweather said.

Persons: Biden, —, Joe Biden's, That's, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather, Lawrence Yun, Yun, who's Organizations: Service, NAR, Department of Housing, Urban Locations: America

☆ American workers are losing confidence in their CEOs
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

47% of workers said they felt worried about their job security, according to a 2023 survey conducted by McKinsey & Company. AdvertisementThe job market looks to be cooling off even as the economy looks like it is going strong. New LandscapeFor disgruntled workers, it may help to hear that CEOs also are getting pushed out at the fastest pace in decades. The job market is expected to slow in 2024, he estimated, pointing to the deceleration in hiring activity. AdvertisementTotal full-time workers declined in February, the first decline posted since the pandemic, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Persons: —, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, Jamie Dimon, Andrew Challenger, Challenger, Zhao doesn't Organizations: Service, Business, Glassdoor, JPMorgan, McKinsey & Company, Challenger, Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ Recession odds are 'very high' as economy looks poised to see an unemployment wave and plunging consumer spending, chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The odds of a recession are "very high" in the US, according to Joe LaVorgna. AdvertisementThe odds of the economy tipping into a recession are "very high," as the US is poised to see a wave of unemployment and a major drop in consumer spending. Advertisement"All three of those metrics are still flashing recession," LaVorgna said. AdvertisementStrong consumer spending on goods also looks poised to drop, which could end up dragging economic growth lower, LaVorgna said. "It makes me think recession risk … still has a very high probability," he added.

Persons: Joe LaVorgna, LaVorgna, — Organizations: Service, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Investor Locations: Nikko

☆ Trump's proposed tariffs would be 'recessionary' and could spark a resurgence in inflation, Harvard economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Trump's trade policies would be "recessionary" and could make inflation worse, according to Kenneth Rogoff. The Harvard economist pointed to Trump's proposed tariffs on imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods. AdvertisementDonald Trump's proposed tariffs on imports would have "recessionary" effects on the US economy and could end up sending inflation higher again, according to top economist Kenneth Rogoff. Rogoff said that Trump's proposed policies and Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act make them both the "most protectionist" presidential candidates the US has seen in a while, Rogoff said to Bloomberg on Wednesday. That could hamper economic growth and stoke inflation, making Trump one of the biggest threats to the global economy, "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini recently argued.

Persons: Kenneth Rogoff, —, Donald Trump's, Rogoff, Trump's, Joe Biden's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini, Biden, Donald Trump, overspending Organizations: Harvard, Bloomberg, Service, International Monetary, stoke, Trump, Bank of America, Project Syndicate Locations: China, stoke, Washington, Japan

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ Layoffs could be coming as debt-laden firms navigate the pain of higher rates, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's because aggressive Fed rate hikes haven't been fully felt across the economy. AdvertisementA wave of layoffs could be coming as companies deal with the reality of higher interest rates, economists say. The peak unemployment rate during the Great Recession was 10% in 2009. Following revisions to the prior two months' figures, the unemployment rate also rose to 3.9% in February, its highest level in two years. The unemployment rate is a classic lagging indicator."

Persons: David Rosenberg, —, what's, Steve Briggs, Briggs, Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Briggs, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fitch

☆ The economy averting a hard landing is 'laughable,' and companies are about to see a profit recession, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy won't dodge a hard landing recession, according to Stephanie Pomboy. That could be followed by a "double-dip" profit recession as corporate earnings take a hit. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US economy can't avoid a hard-landing recession, according to one top economist. She warned in a recent interview of a coming "double-dip" profit recession for US companies, which could cause earnings to nosedive and spark big problems for the economy.

Persons: Stephanie Pomboy, —, Pomboy, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, ISI, Rosenberg Research

☆ What dream job? Gen Z and millennials are being forced to confront a difficult job market.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% last month, the highest level in two years. AdvertisementGen Z and millennials entering the job market or in the early stages of their careers are facing a much tougher job market than in recent years, and many are adjusting their expectations for a dream career as the hiring landscape worsens. Despair about the ailing job market looks most acute among recent graduates, or students quickly approaching their graduation dates. AdvertisementOnly 44% of workers under 30 said they were "very satisfied" with their job, according to a 2023 Pew Research study. The job market boomed during the pandemic, with the unemployment rate going from 6.4% at the beginning of 2021 to 3.5% at the end of 2022.

Persons: Z, —, Gen Zers, Harry Holzer, Natasha Bernfeld, Bernfeld, Larry Jackson, he's, they've, Jackson, Emily Bianchi, Bianchi, it's, Georgetown's Holzer, It's, Dua Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Challenger, McKinsey & Company, Labor Department, UC Berkeley's, Pew, Emory University Locations: Georgetown, New York, Dua

☆ The Fed 'went crazy' with rates and did big damage to the real estate market, billionaire mogul Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The real estate market is "collateral damage" in the Fed's inflation fight, Barry Sternlicht said. AdvertisementThe commercial real estate market is hurting, and that's largely thanks to the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes which have battered the economy, real estate billionaire Barry Sternlicht said. In an interview on "In Depth with Graham Bensinger," the real estate investor and Starwood Capital CEO sounded off the Fed's policy-tightening campaign since early 2022. AdvertisementLast year, Sternlicht warned of a "Category 5 hurricane" coming for the real estate market, which he believed could be followed by a recession. Still, Sternlicht said he was optimistic about the real estate market going forward, and while property prices have plunged, that creates investment opportunity.

Persons: Barry Sternlicht, I've, Sternlicht, —, Graham Bensinger, Morgan Stanley, Sternlict, Powell, Joe Biden Organizations: Starwood, Service, Starwood Capital CEO, Bloomberg, Fed, Wall, Infrastructure Investment, Investors

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