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STAND PATThe BOJ's decision last month to widen the band around its 10-year yield target has failed to remove market distortions caused by its huge bond buying, instead prompting the market to test the 0.5% upside of the range. MORE TWEAKSBond sellers broke the BOJ's 0.5% cap on Friday, less than a month after the policy tweak, forcing emergency buying from the central bank to bring the yield back down. Or it could widen the band around its 10-year yield target. ABANDON, RAISE YIELD TARGETThere is a slim chance the BOJ could raise the 10-year yield target or abandon YCC altogether. Any such move would likely be accompanied by, or come well after, the end of the 10-year yield target.
Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would drop to 1.1 trillion yuan in December from 1.21 trillion yuan the previous month. New bank lending hit a record 21.31 trillion yuan in 2022, up from 19.95 trillion yuan in 2021 - the previous record. Broad M2 money supply grew by 11.8% in December from a year earlier, central bank data showed, below estimates of 12.2% forecast in the Reuters poll. Outstanding yuan loans grew by 11.1% in December from a year earlier compared with 11.0% growth in November. In December, TSF fell to 1.31 trillion yuan from 1.99 trillion yuan in November.
Euro zone business lending growth slows sharply in November
  + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
FRANKFURT, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Bank lending to euro zone companies slowed in November, easing back from the sector's biggest borrowing binge in over a decade as rising interest rates and a looming recession appear to be taking a toll, European Central Bank data showed on Thursday. Lending to businesses in the 19-country euro area expanded by 8.4% in November after an 8.9% reading a month earlier while household credit growth slowed to 4.1% from 4.2%. The monthly flow of loans to companies was also sharply lower at minus 1 billion euros after a 24 billion euro reading a month earlier. Growth in the M3 measure of money circulating in the euro zone meanwhile slowed to 4.8% from 5.1%, coming below expectations for 5.0% in a Reuters survey. Reporting by Balazs Koranyi;Editing by Elaine HardcastleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
A year of wild swings in the financial markets
  + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
It was the year that major central banks – caught unawares by the sharpest inflation surge in decades – responded with an aggressive run of interest rate increases. The impact was palpable. The chart shows how the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, a global benchmark of investor sentiment and bank lending rates, reacted with some of the biggest moves in decades.
PUBLIC DISCONTENTAfter a tumultuous year for the world's third-largest economy, Japan's central bank and its leadership face a critical moment. While ruling out the need to ditch the yield cap now, Takata recently said he saw positive developments in wage growth. "The BOJ must start worrying about the possibility of inflation accelerating more than expected," he told Reuters, adding the BOJ may abandon its yield cap as early as next year. Such a reaction was seen in March when the BOJ was forced to pledge unlimited bond buying to defend its yield cap from speculative market attacks. "That's why the BOJ won't provide advance signals and remove the yield cap in a single step."
What to do about the highest interest rate in 15 years
  + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
In its last policymaking meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate for the seventh time in a row, to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Otherwise, any remaining balance will be subject to a new interest rate that could be higher than you had before if rates continue to rise. That said, “don’t jump into a large purchase that isn’t right for you just because interest rates might go up. If that’s not possible, consider paying off that balance by taking out a HELOC with another lender at a lower promotional rate, McBride suggested. The floating rate is tied to a short-term benchmark rate, such as the fed funds rate, so it will go up whenever the Fed hikes rates.
Family offices are poised to pour billions into private equity and private companies in 2023 as they seek greater returns and control over their investments, according to family office experts. "The key story this year is about private equity," said Rebecca Gooch, senior director of research at Campden Wealth. While family offices have been shifting from public to private markets for years, 2023 could mark an acceleration, experts say. At the same time, family offices have plenty of cash on the sidelines ready to put to work. More willing to talk The attraction of family offices investing in family businesses -- or "family-to-family deals" -- is also likely to get a boost from valuations.
Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would jump to 1.35 trillion yuan in November. Household loans, including mortgages, rose to 262.7 billion yuan in November, versus a contraction of 18 billion yuan in October. Corporate loans rose to 883.7 billion yuan from 462.2 billion yuan in October. New loans totalled 19.91 trillion yuan in January-November, central bank data showed, compared with a record 19.95 trillion yuan in 2021. Outstanding yuan loans grew 11.0% in November from a year earlier compared with 11.1% growth in October.
When the Fed increases the interest rate, or the federal funds rate, it alters the interest rate on interbank lending. Now, the Fed's target interest rate range is around 4%, up from near-zero interest rates during the pandemic. High-yield savings accounts differ from traditional savings accounts because they offer significantly higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the high-yield savings accounts with the highest APYs have rates that are 18 times higher than the average APY on traditional accounts. Select ranked LendingClub High-Yield Savings and UFB High Rate Savings as some of the best high-yield savings accounts.
[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. The offshore yuan fell to an over two-week low in Asian trading, and was last roughly 0.4% lower at 7.2242 per dollar. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, slid more than 1% to $0.6681. China's stringent COVID restrictions have taken a heavy toll on its economy, and authorities have implemented various measures to revive growth. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% to 106.41, edging away from its recent three-month low of 105.30.
[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File PhotoSINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed on Monday as protests against COVID restrictions in China rattled financial markets, sending the yuan sliding and pushing nervous investors toward the safe-haven greenback. The offshore yuan fell to an over two-week low in Asian trading, and was last roughly 0.6% lower at 7.24 per dollar. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, slid more than 1% to $0.6687. The stringent COVID restrictions have taken a heavy toll on China's economy, and authorities have implemented various measures to revive growth.
SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The dollar gained broadly on Monday as protests against COVID restrictions in China stoked uncertainty and dented sentiment, sending the yuan sliding and pushing nervous investors toward the safe-haven greenback. Against the offshore yuan , the dollar rose 0.76% in early Asia trade to 7.2456. The Aussie , which is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, fell 0.61% to $0.6714, while the kiwi slumped 0.5% to $0.6216. "Companies are currently facing weaker retail sales from a higher number of COVID cases and falling home prices from unfinished home projects." Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was down 0.08% at 106.25, but off its recent three-month low of 105.30.
Euro zone credit growth remains brisk despite gloomy outlook
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
FRANKFURT, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Bank lending to euro zone companies held steady, maintaining the sector's biggest borrowing binge in over a decade, despite rising interest rates and a looming recession, European Central Bank data showed on Monday. Lending to businesses in the 19-country euro area expanded by 8.9% in October, unchanged on September when it rose to its highest rate since early 2009, fresh data showed. Household credit growth meanwhile slowed to 4.2% from 4.4%. The monthly flow of loans to companies, however, slowed sharply, to 24.0 billion euros from 36.6 billion a month earlier with the flow of short term loans coming to a standstill. Growth in the M3 measure of money circulating in the euro zone, meanwhile slowed to 5.1% from 6.3%, coming well under expectations for 6.2% in a Reuters survey.
Credit default ratio in Brazil hits highest in almost 4 years
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
BRASILIA, Nov 28 (Reuters) - A broad measure of Brazilian consumer and business credit default ratios rose in October to its highest level in almost four years, central bank data showed on Monday, amid high borrowing costs and aggressive monetary tightening. The default ratio in non-earmarked loans increased to 4.2% from 4.1% in September, the highest since August 2018's 4.22%. The central bank recently warned of its growing concern about the effects of lower economic activity on credit risks in the country, pointing to a "relevant" increase in risks on financing families this year. According to the central bank, individuals' ability to pay has deteriorated even amid better indicators for the economy and the labor market. The central bank forecasts 14.2% credit growth this year.
Dollar gains, yuan slides as China's Covid unrest spooks markets
  + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar climbed on Monday as protests against Covid restrictions in China rattled financial markets, sending the yuan sliding and pushing nervous investors toward the safe-haven greenback. Worries over the unprecedented wave of civil disobedience in a country where in-person protests are rare, the rising Covid cases, as well as how Beijing will react to the situation kept investors on edge. The offshore yuan fell to an over two-week low in Asian trading, and was last roughly 0.6% lower at 7.24 per dollar. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, slid more than 1% to $0.6687. The stringent Covid restrictions have taken a heavy toll on China's economy, and authorities have implemented various measures to revive growth.
SummarySummary Companies Coal miners struggling to fund expansion plansThermal coal costs more than coking coal after price surgeMost Western bankers pulling back from coal industryLONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - It's the best of times, it's the worst of times. At least when it comes to mining coal. With funding hard to come by from Western banks, coal miners outside China have turned more to equity markets this year. "With regard to thermal coal mining, any transaction in coal mining requires an enhanced environmental risk review," a Deutsche spokesperson said, adding that the bank was updating its coal policy. Bens Creek listed shares partly because of the lack of appetite from banks to support any expansion of coal mining, chief executive Wilson said.
[1/2] Camden Hauge, who owns the Egg cafe, poses in her cafe in central Shanghai, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Shanghai, China, November 16, 2022. Their Lost Plate company, which has been hosting food tours in several Chinese cities since 2015, will instead veer to Southeast Asia. With COVID outbreaks getting worse, it is unlikely that China's economy can shift into a higher gear in the near term. Local authorities in some Chinese cities eased restrictions, while others tightened. At its core, the problem reflects authorities' failure to prioritise the interests of consumers, who are often the punching bag in China's investment-driven economy.
We can bet that they will be one-upping each other about how high they want to take fed funds, the overnight bank lending rate. They seem to want to ignore anything that's succeeded since the Fed's rate increase cycle began back in March. I think that, again, if the Fed were to wait through Christmas they would see the layoffs and the corporate failures. One thing that's for certain, the buyers of the 2-year may be more sensitive to the data than the Fed. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Any crunch for Britain's small businesses, which often lack the scale to pass on cost rises to customers as easily as bigger rivals, could deliver a new economic body blow. "How are we going to get out of this hole if it's not small businesses? "But there's no question that small businesses now have less capacity to increase their borrowing because you've got a slowing economy." Indeed small companies in Britain see their access to credit at its worst level since 2015, according to a quarterly survey by the FSB of 1,383 small business owners. Many small companies have also yet to repay state-backed loans extended to prop them up during COVID lockdowns, making their credit profiles increasingly unattractive.
Property investment also fell at a faster pace in the January-October period, pointing to further weakness in a key pillar of China's economy. Retail sales fell 0.5%, the first fall since May when Shanghai was under a city-wide lockdown. China's economy is facing a series of headwinds including its zero-COVID policy, a property slump and global recession risks. Property investment fell 8.8% year-on-year in January-October, after declining 8% in January-September. China's property sector, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, has slowed sharply this year as the government sought to restrict excessive borrowing by developers.
BEIJING, Nov 13 (Reuters) - China's economy has grown 3% over the past three quarters and is stabilising on an "upward trend", Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said, vowing to continue to support the economy with policy measures. Premier Li also said China was working hard to keep market operations, employment and prices stable, the statement said. read moreChina has created more than 10 million new urban jobs in the first 10 months of the year, Li said. China aims to keep the urban jobless rate below 5.5% and to create more than 11 million new urban jobs this year. "Countries should strengthen cooperation and macroeconomic policy coordination, so as to form synergy to maintain the stability of the world economy and prevent recession," Li said.
No easy fix for China as economy slows more than expected
  + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Kevin Yao | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
China is on track to miss its annual growth target of around 5.5% - the latest Reuters poll forecast 2022 growth at 3.2%. Data on Thursday showed new bank lending in China fell more than expected in October from the previous month while broad credit growth slowed. Underscoring the weakness in domestic demand, factory gate prices for October dropped for the first time since December 2020. But the main near-term headwind remains China's zero-COVID policy, while the longer term drag remains domestic demand. read more"COVID curbs have greatly affected consumption and investment," said Wang Jun, director at China Chief Economist Forum.
By Martha C. WhiteAfter years of earning essentially zilch on your cash, it’s finally possible to see a real return in your savings account. (Capital One 360 Performance Savings remains our pick for Best Overall Savings Account.) Strategies to find the best savings ratesThere are a few places you can search for a savings account that offers high interest—and a couple of caveats to keep in mind. Try an aggregatorSites that aggregate banking offers can be a good place to start your search for a high-yield savings account. With lower overhead than their bricks-and-mortar counterparts, these businesses have more leeway to offer higher rates on deposits.
Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would fall to 800 billion yuan in October. Household loans, including mortgages, contracted by 18 billion yuan in October, versus 650.3 billion yuan in September, while corporate loans dropped to 462.2 billion yuan from 1.92 trillion yuan, central bank data showed. China's local governments issued a net 24.1 billion yuan in special bonds in September, the finance ministry has said, down from 51.6 billion yuan in August. China's local governments issued a net 24.1 billion yuan in special bonds in September, the finance ministry has said, down from 51.6 billion yuan in August. In October, TSF fell sharply to 907.9 billion yuan from 3.53 trillion yuan in September.
MILAN, Nov 10 (Reuters) - The growth of Italian bank lending to businesses slowed down in September, data from the Bank of Italy showed on Thursday. A monthly report on the balance sheets of domestic banks showed loans to non-financial companies grew by 4.4% year-on-year in September compared with a 4.8% rise in August. The data also showed Italian residents' deposits with domestic banks were down to 2.77 trillion euros ($2.77 trillion) from 2.80 trillion euros in the previous month. Gross unpaid loans ticked down to 34.86 billion euros at the end of September from 35.25 billion euros a month earlier. ($1 = 1.0015 euros)Reporting by Sara Rossi, editing byOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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