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Both have opined that the rally on Wall Street underscores a growing belief that former President Donald Trump will win on Nov. 5. However, I don't yet believe that Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue have intersected just yet. Indeed, if the stock market is anticipating a Trump victory, what might the bond market and gold market be telling us, assuming they expect the same outcome? Are those markets telling us a Trump victory would lead to higher inflation and bigger fiscal deficits? Those betting on a Trump win would be loath to say so if they follow the messages of multiple markets.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Dan Loeb, Donald Trump, Loeb, it's, Dow Jones, Kamala Harris, Trump, Ron Insana Organizations: Senate, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Dow, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, European Central Bank, Trump, stoke, Democratic, Pennsylvania, CNBC Locations: U.S
"I think all roads lead to inflation," Jones told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Tuesday. "I'm long gold. I'm long bitcoin. I think commodities are so ridiculously underowned, so I'm long commodities. @GC.1 YTD mountain Gold, YTD The CBO expects deficits will hit $2.8 trillion by 2034, up from $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, Jones, CNBC's, That's, Robin Hood, Donald Trump, Bitcoin Organizations: Trump, Nasdaq, Tudor Investment, Robin, Robin Hood Foundation, Congressional, Treasury, Federal, Metrics Locations: U.S
The first line of the note reads: "We estimate the S & P 500 will deliver an annualized nominal total return of 3% during the next 10 years." For starters, nobody knows what the coming decade has in store for the S & P 500. Valuation: Yes, the S & P 500 is currently trading at a historically high multiple. Going out on a limb and making market calls or calls about individual stocks is not for the faint of heart. The S & P 500 has more than doubled since then, advancing about 135%, which amounts to that roughly 13% annual return that Kostin mentioned in his note.
Persons: David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman, it's, Jim Cramer, Stanley Black, Decker, That's, Jim, It's, Goldman Sachs, we're, Jim Cramer's, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Goldman, Goldman Sachs Chief U.S, Equity, Treasury, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, U.S, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Goldman Sachs, U.S, Wells
Norway's sovereign wealth fund on Tuesday reported third-quarter profit of 835 billion Norwegian kroner ($76.3 billion), citing a stock market boost from falling interest rates. The so-called Government Pension Fund Global, one of the world's largest investors, said it had a value of 18.870 trillion kroner at the end of September. Trond Grande, deputy CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), which manages the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, said recent changes in monetary policy had "a pretty significant impact" on the fund's third-quarter results. "What I think you have seen from our numbers is that with a rising tide, all boats rise, right? And so, you saw a very broad increase in the stock market based on lower interest rates, essentially."
Persons: Trond Grande, Grande, CNBC's Silvia Amaro Organizations: Fund, Norway's Finance Ministry, FTSE, Bloomberg Barclays, Norges Bank Investment Management
Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones is raising alarms about the U.S. government's current fiscal deficit and the increased spending promised by both presidential candidates, saying the bond market may force the government's hand after the election in addressing it. "We are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues," Jones told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin on Tuesday. The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said he was worried that government spending could cause a big sell-off in the bond market, spiking interest rates. He said he plans to not own fixed income and will be betting against the longer-dated part of the bond market. Jones founded his hedge fund more than four decades ago and rose to prominence by correctly predicting the stock market crash of 1987.
Persons: Paul Tudor Jones, Jones, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Tudor Investment, Treasury Department, Wall Street, Trump Locations: United States
As investors ponder how — and where — to invest in China, CNBC's Tanvir Gill will quiz China portfolio manager Jason Hsu on where he sees opportunities in the current market. Hsu previously told CNBC Pro that he was betting on tech — and artificial intelligence in particular — for the long term. Hsu set up Ranmore Fund Management in 2016, prior to which he was co-founder and vice chairman of quantitative asset manager Research Affiliates. Join CNBC Pro Talks on Wednesday, Oct. 23 at 6:30 a.m. BST / 1:30 p.m. SGT / 1:30 a.m. Learn more from our previous Pro Talks: How to play AI in a cheaper way without owning stocks like Nvidia, according to fund manager Fund manager reveals his worst trade of the year — and the lessons he learned Beyond Novo: Fund manager likes this under-the-radar pharma stock Related coverage from Pro: Is it time to invest in China?
Persons: Finance Lan Fo'an, CNBC's Tanvir Gill, Jason Hsu, Hsu, Goldman, Tanvir Gill Organizations: Finance, China's CSI, Rayliant Global Advisors, China Equity, CNBC Pro, China Equity ETF, Ping An Insurance, Midea, Ranmore Fund Management, Research, Anderson School of Management, UCLA, Nvidia, pharma, Wall, Citi Locations: China
On the earnings front, Tesla, UPS, and Boeing will report later in the week. AdvertisementUS stocks headed for their second losing session in a row, with major indexes slumping Tuesday morning amid a rise in bond yields. The key bond yield jumped above 4.2% for the first time since July. Boeing is also due to report on Wednesday, while UPS will report results on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Tuesday:Here's what else happened today:AdvertisementIn commodities, bonds, and crypto:
Persons: Stocks, , Patrick Harker, Tesla Organizations: UPS, Boeing, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Philadelphia Fed Locations: Here's
The recent strong run in stocks could be just the beginning, according to Canaccord Genuity. The recent rally comes as the current bull market turned two years old. Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Welch thinks more gains could lie ahead. .SPX mountain 2022-10-12 SPX during bull market "The current two-year-old bull market remains below the median in both percent gain and duration, suggesting the upside has further room to run," he wrote Monday. The latest market run also comes as investors pore through third-quarter results.
Persons: Canaccord, Michael Welch, Welch, Goldman Sachs, Warby Parker, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S
Famed short-seller Carson Block says he wouldn't bet against Elon Musk's Tesla. "I just won't bet against Elon." AdvertisementCarson Block, known for his shrewd short bets against companies, says he won't bet against Tesla. It's an about-face of sorts for Block, who said he'd bet against Tesla in the past. "I just won't bet against Elon."
Persons: Carson Block, Elon Musk's Tesla, Block, Elon, , Carson, Tesla, Muddy Waters, … Elon, Tesla's, haven't, that's Organizations: Elon, Service, Muddy, Bloomberg
"Profits accelerating are far more important than who is sitting in the Oval Office," Subramanian said. Instead, the energy sector was the worst-performing sector when Trump was in office, losing 29% even as the S&P 500 surged 83%. Meanwhile, the clean energy sector rose 306% during Trump's presidency, according to data from YCharts. AdvertisementToday, the opposite is true: traditional energy stocks have been the best-performing sector during Biden's presidency, rising 139%, while the clean energy sector is the worst-performing sector, down about 55%. AdvertisementUltimately, Subramanian and her team expect the stock market to rise in 2025 regardless of who wins the election in November.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Donald Trump, Trump, Joe Biden, Elon Musk Organizations: Bank of America, Stock, Service, Capitol, Republican, White House Locations: YCharts
The S&P 500 will see annualized returns of 3% over the next 10 years, says Goldman Sachs. By its calculation, the S&P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bonds, and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034. These stocks include tech large-caps such as Nvidia and Alphabet, whose performance has driven the S&P 500 more than 20% higher year-to-date. The same issue plagues a highly concentrated index," Goldman said. According to Goldman, S&P 500 firms that have consistently generated over 20% revenue growth underwent a sharp drop off after 10 years.
Persons: annualized, Goldman Sachs, That's, , Goldman, that's Organizations: Service, Nvidia
Investors are turning their attention to third-quarter earnings season, with 21% of S&P 500 companies set to report this week. Bank of America said that company executives are striking an optimistic tone on earnings calls. The decline on Monday comes as third-quarter earnings season nears its peak, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies set to report results this week, including Coca-Cola, Tesla, Boeing, and UPS. Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian said that company executives are striking an optimistic tone on earnings calls. Analysts have been feeling bullish on the stock's prospects for further gains amid big demand for its new Blackwell chips.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Blackwell, Fedspeak Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Boeing, UPS, Bank of America . Bank of America, PMI, Here's
The bank is adding to the growing numbers of forecasts for a "no landing" of the US economy. Inflation will remain low enough to leave room for the Fed to cut interest rates, boosting stocks. The job market is proving resilient, despite tighter financial conditions and higher interest rates. AdvertisementCooling price growth sets the stage for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, UBS said, which is bullish for stocks. The strategists added that while investors may see some volatility ahead of the November election, it's unlikely to interrupt more positive market catalysts.
Persons: Organizations: UBS, Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New
Investors might consider Treasury bills over CDs for better liquidity and tax benefits: Jason BrowneTreasury bills offer higher yields in some cases and are exempt from state taxes. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Another reason is that Treasurys are exempt from state taxes, which vary, while CDs are not. Perhaps a third reason, depending on where you bank, is that in many cases the shortest duration Treasurys are paying better rates than CDs. Yields on 3-month bills are 4.6%, and while some banks are offering similar or slightly higher rates still, many have much less attractive yields.
Persons: Jason Browne, Browne, , DepositAccounts Organizations: Service, Alexis Investment Partners, LendingTree, Fed
US stocks dipped as investors await third-quarter earnings from major S&P 500 companies. The slight decline on Monday follows a six-week win streak and record highs for S&P 500 and Dow Jones. AdvertisementUS stocks took a breather on Monday, with all three major indexes moving slightly lower as investors prepare for another wave of third-quarter earnings. More than 20% of S&P 500 companies are set to report results this week, including Coca-Cola, Tesla, and UPS. So far, investors should be feeling good about third-quarter earnings results.
Persons: Dow Jones, , Tom Lee, Fedspeak Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, UPS, Federal Reserve
Jim Cramer says not to panic over higher bond yields
  + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
CNBC's Jim Cramer examined Monday's market action and said investors shouldn't be too concerned about rising bond yields. "Stocks have soared with bond yields at these levels before; in fact, they've soared with the 30-year at 5%, they've soared with the 30-year at 6%, so let's stop it with the jeremiads." The indexes ticked lower on Monday as bond yields jumped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 0.8% and the S&P 500 dipping 0.18%. But Cramer noted that the stock market has "had a fabulous run," even as bond yields have been creeping up. Cramer acknowledged that some investors, particularly traders with a more short-term view, are inclined to automatically trim stocks when bond yields rise.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, shouldn't, Cramer Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal
WASHINGTON — With just two weeks left in the 2024 campaign, there currently are no plans for Vice President Kamala Harris to appear on the trail with President Joe Biden before Election Day, according to three Harris campaign officials and three White House officials. Biden last appeared with Harris at a campaign event nearly seven weeks ago, on Labor Day in early September. That’s a contrast to former President Obama, who has headlined a series of Harris campaign events, and former President Bill Clinton who has also been on the trail for the vice president. First lady Jill Biden has headlined multiple events for the Harris campaign as well and is set to hit the trail for her again on Wednesday in Nevada. White House and campaign officials say the president understands the strategy behind his downsized role in the campaign, even if at times he doesn’t like it.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Harris, Biden, , , “ Harris, Joe Biden’s, ” Harris, Trump, tethering Harris, ” Trump, Biden’s, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, He’s, Obama, Bill Clinton, Jill Biden Organizations: WASHINGTON, White, White House, Democratic, Biden, Fox, NBC News, Philadelphia Democrats, Workers, Labor, Nevada . White Locations: Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Philadelphia, Florida, North Carolina, Israel, Nevada ., U.S
First, higher interest rates will reward savers, making it more expensive to take risks. And with interest rates so low, companies could suddenly load up on debt: From 2007 to 2017, global nonfinancial corporate debt doubled, to $66 trillion. Now, with the arrival of a new supercycle, money managers are once again being forced to adapt to a changing set of economic realities. Normally, when the Fed hikes interest rates rapidly, the stock market tanks. Rising interest rates will make loans more expensive, forcing businesses to make more-thoughtful decisions about debt.
Persons: Josh Hirt, Silas Myers, Myers, Hirt, you've, Joe Quinlan, they'll, Quinlan Organizations: Investors, Vanguard, Mar Vista Investments, Federal Reserve, Capital, . Venture, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Big Tech, Federal Trade Commission, Treasury, European Union, Aerospace Locations: Washington, China, Unemployment, Europe, America, Japan, United States
Earnings drove the stock market higher — can they do it again in the week ahead? But he acknowledged that timing is key because our portfolio discipline mandates that we consider lightening up our stock exposure in an overbought market. In fact, AMD was our worst-performing stock for the entire week, losing more than 7% following the prior week's 1.8% slide. Energy was the worst sector of the week for the market as oil prices sank. In the week ahead, housing numbers are the main draw on the economic front.
Persons: Jim Cramer, ASML, Morgan Stanley, WTI, industrials, We're, Sartorius, Danaher, we're, Stanley Black, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, Clark, Baker Hughes, Lam, DOV, CARR, Davidson, Northrop, Edwards Lifesciences, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Stocks, Tuesday's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Netflix, Modelo, Corona, Constellation Brands, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Energy, Texas, Honeywell, Danaher, Federal Reserve, Treasury, SAP, Logitech, Verizon, General Motors, GE Aerospace, GE, Lockheed, Quest Diagnostics, Norfolk Southern, Polaris, Seagate Technology, Texas Instruments, Canadian National Railway Company, Boeing, GE Vernova, Fisher, Boston, General Dynamics, Hilton, Lam Research, Business Machines, IBM, Newmont, Viking Therapeutics, Vista Energy, Mattel, O'Reilly Automotive, Whirlpool, American Airlines, United Parcel Service, Southwest Airlines, Tractor Supply Company, Carrier Global, Dow Chemical, DOW, Harley, Union Pacific, Valero Energy, Hasbro, Northrop Grumman, Ryder, Boyd Gaming, Western, Boston Beer Company, York Community Bancorp, Colgate, Palmolive, Newell Brands, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, NEW, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: BlackRock, CrowdStrike, U.S, Dover, Freeport, McMoRan, Kimberly, Norfolk, Las, ORLY, VALE, New York City
Odds of a "no landing" scenario for the economy are rising amid continued strong economic data. The "no landing" scenario entails a continued run of hot economic data and growth that boosts markets but also precludes a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. According to Cox, that means that short-term interest rates will drop to around 3% in the no landing scenario, even if long-term rates remain elevated. AdvertisementAfter all, a no landing scenario is the best outcome for the economy, Cox said, and given hot growth, the situation effectively tosses recession fears out the window. This would be just the fourth time in US history that the Fed has cut interest rates without a downturn, he added.
Persons: , BofA, Reacceleration, Jamie Cox, Cox, They're, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, UBS, Fed, Nvidia, Apple
The S&P 500 has enjoyed a bull market since October 2022, rising nearly 70%. AdvertisementThe stock market has been experiencing a bull market for the last two years. The Magnificent Seven drove much of the returns for the S&P 500 this year, contributing 34% of the index's total return. Analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report 4.2% profit growth for Q3. Ever since World War II, bull markets that have lasted two years continue onwards for a third.
Persons: LPL Financial's Quincy Crosby, , Quincy Crosby, LPL, Crosby, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells, Jack Ablin, Jerome Powell, Buchbinder Organizations: Service, LPL, Federal, Bull, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Morningstar, Cresset Capital Management, Federal Reserve Locations: America
S & P 500 money is oblivious to stock valuations of any kind and ignorant to upgrades and downgrades. The Lilliputian sellers regularly fail to do damage when matched with the oblivious index money. A 4% 2-year note isn't competitive to the magnet of the S & P 500 and its kin. That's emblematic of what happens with a big buyback without stock-based compensation (something many tech firms use that renders moot the S & P 500 inflows). Because of the way that the S & P 500 money is divvied up, the share base becomes overwhelmingly index-fund based and the index fund shareholders do not sell.
Persons: Morningstar, Smoot, Herbert Hoover's, Warren Buffett, Buffett, Jerome Powell, haven't, Charlie Scharf, Wells, Banks, Charlie, Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, James Gorman, Schwab, Gamble, Jim Umpleby, that's, Butch Cassidy, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Charles Scharf, Kyle Grillot Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Taiwan Semi, Trust, Fed, Triple AAA Robinhood, Morgan, Procter, United Airlines, Exxon, Caterpillar, Boeing, Apple, Meta, Sundance, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Milken Institute Global Conference, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Hawley, McCumber, Taiwan, Arizona, American, Wells Fargo, Wells, China, Chevron, Beverly Hills, Calif
Economist David Rosenberg warns the stock market is in a "mega-bubble." The S&P 500 continues to register new highs and has climbed an incredible 23% so far this year. For investor positioning, here's household equity ownership as a percentage of assets as of the start of this year. Related storiesBy Rosenberg's measure, the S&P 500 is at least 25% higher than where fundamentals suggest it should be. AdvertisementSince then, the S&P 500 has risen to 5,864.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, , That's, it's, J.P, Morgan Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Federal Reserve
Several companies due to report next week could get a boost after their earnings results. To separate the wheat from the chaff, CNBC Pro screened FactSet for companies reporting in the coming days that are liked by analysts and also have strong earnings momentum. One bullish analyst is Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring, who reiterated an overweight rating and $133 price target on Seagate in an Oct. 15 note to clients. Health care stocks Universal Health Services and HCA Healthcare have also seen improved sentiment, as measured by earnings estimates since the Spring. The investment bank maintained its buy rating while increasing its price target on HCA by $75 to $450, implying 8% potential upside from Friday's close.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring, Woodring, TD Cowen Organizations: CNBC Pro, Seagate Technology, Seagate, Universal Health Services, HCA Healthcare, Analysts, Healthcare, HCA
Luxury stocks may be a risky China stimulus bet
  + stars: | 2024-10-19 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +7 min
A post-pandemic spending surge led to luxury stocks such as LVMH to reach all-time highs in early 2023, but that soon changed. We believe improved confidence and sentiment is required to reach even our flat year-over-year Chinese luxury growth forecast for 2025," Wallace noted. Luxury stocks are feeling the pressure — year to date, U.S.-traded shares of major players LVMH and Kering are down about 17% and 41%, respectively. Analysts and investors are mixed as to whether the Chinese stimulus measures can revive luxury spending growth among consumers — and whether it will create a meaningful tailwind for luxury companies. Whether the luxury sector can continue growing at the same levels without as much Chinese consumer spending remains in question.
Persons: — stoking, Ben Harburg, Morgan Stanley, Ashley Wallace, Wallace, Jean, Jacques Guiony, Moncler, Hermes, Prada, Richemont, LVMUY CFRUY, , Edouard Aubin, Sauron, Harburg, LVMH's Guiony, we've Organizations: Alpha, Bank of America, of America, Consumers Locations: China, Covid, 3Q24, U.S, LVMH
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