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Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attend a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 12, 2023. Turkey's presidential election could be headed for an unprecedented runoff, as neither 20-year incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu had secured an outright win Monday morning. A candidate must get more than 50% of the vote to win the highly-charged race. If no one passes that threshold, the vote goes to a runoff election in the coming weeks. Whereas Kilicdaroglu, who is representing a united front of six different opposition parties all seeking to unseat Erdogan, vowed to win the election in a second round of voting.
Erdogan’s fate will have major implications not just for his country’s democracy, which he has worked to weaken, but for US foreign policy too. “Our people should be confident that we will definitely win, and we will bring democracy to this country,” he said. Biden’s entire presidency has unfolded in the shadow of autocrats, assaults on democracy and aspiring strongman leaders – abroad, and most remarkably at home. Biden confronts a threat from democracy at homeBut none of those leaders pose an existential threat to US democracy. Ahead of the election, Kilicdaroglu was talking in very similar terms about the need to preserve democracy as Biden does in the US.
Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan will likely face opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the second round of the presidential election on May 28. Photo Composite: Diana ChanISTANBUL—Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main challenger said they were both prepared to accept a runoff election later this month with neither candidate claiming an outright victory in a vote that marked the most severe political challenge to the Turkish leader’s two decades in power. Early results appeared to show neither Mr. Erdogan or his top challenger, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu , reached the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff, which would take place on May 28.
People in Turkey are voting in the tightest election in years, as the country recovers from a devastating earthquake in the midst of an economic crisis. WSJ’s Jared Malsin explains why the results could reverberate beyond Turkey. Photo: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty ImagesISTANBUL—Turkish voters go to the polls on Sunday in one of the most crucial elections in the country’s history—a vote that could bring to an end the long rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and have far-reaching geopolitical consequences for the Middle East, Ukraine and NATO. Mr. Erdogan has towered over Turkish politics for two decades, tightening his grip over the country and eroding democratic institutions at home, while also raising the country’s profile on the international stage.
His main opponent is CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who represents an election coalition of six opposition parties. For the first time, Turkey’s factious opposition has coalesced around a single candidate. When a vicious earthquake on February 6 laid waste to large parts of southeast Turkey, Erdogan’s battled political aftershocks. More than 1.8 million voters living abroad already cast their votes on April 17, Turkish newspaper Daily Sabah reported Wednesday, citing the country’s deputy foreign minister. The Supreme Election Council (YSK) chief Ahmet Yener said last month that at least 1 million voters in quake-stricken zones are expected not to vote this year amid displacement.
Elon Musk's reputation as a free speech absolutist took another hit on Saturday after Twitter sided with the Turkish government and censored the accounts of political opponents ahead of a contentious election. Targeted Turkish dissidentsThe details of the legal request and which specific accounts were targeted were not made public. Yakut had previously shared information about Erdogan's governmental dealings and alleged the Turkish leader had been involved in the disappearance of his son-in-law, Turkish Minute reported last week. "I'm sure this is just a coincidence," users on Twitter posted, some sarcastically, circulating news of Musk's business dealings with Turkey. Musk and representatives for Twitter, SpaceX, and the Republic of Turkey did not immediately respond to Insider's requests for comment.
He represents a coalition of six opposition parties that have come together to challenge Mr. Erdogan. Recent polls showed Mr. Kilicdaroglu holding a slight lead, despite Mr. Erdogan’s tapping of state resources in an effort to tilt the contest. Mr. Erdogan, 69, is viewed as a problematic and often unpredictable partner of the West. Mr. Erdogan has also vexed fellow NATO leaders by hampering the alliance’s efforts to expand, stalling Finland’s membership and still refusing to endorse Sweden’s inclusion. Mr. Kilicdaroglu, 74, has vowed to improve relations with the West if he is elected and make policy more institutional and less personal.
We’re looking back at the strongest, smartest opinion takes of the week from CNN and other outlets. Not to worry, said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a veteran of debt limit battles. McConnell’s reassurance that all will work out in the end is validated by history, but that doesn’t mean this time couldn’t be different. “If female voters are key to a Donald Trump victory in 2024, the former president should be in big trouble – but he doesn’t seem to care,” Jill Filipovic observed. “The town hall audience – selected on the basis of their intention to vote in the Republican primary in New Hampshire – appeared to be made up mostly of Trump fans.
Supporters wave flags as Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds a rally ahead of the Presidential elections in Istanbul on May 12, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. Erdogan will face his biggest electoral test as voters head to the polls in the country's general election. For the presidency — which is expected to be close — if no candidate wins more than 50%, the vote goes to a run-off two weeks later. In a possibly game-changing development, one of the four presidential candidates, Muharrem Ince, pulled out of the race Thursday. A former CHP member, he had been under heavy criticism for splitting the opposition vote in a way that would hurt Kilicdaroglu's chances.
He said he came back to Antakya, the hardest hit city in the earthquake zone, with eight of his family members. They drove by car for about four hours from another southern province to vote. They cited not only the government’s response to the earthquake, but its handling of the economy in recent years, when inflation has surged. They said it was depressing to return to the earthquake zone and see that the government had only removed rubble, but taken no other discernible actions to pave the way for residents to return. That is a substantial share of the nearly nine million eligible voters in the 11 quake-affected provinces of southern Turkey.
ISTANBUL, Turkey — As President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey approaches the toughest election of his career on Sunday, he has marshaled many of the resources of the state to tilt the playing field to his advantage. His challenger barely appears on the state broadcaster while Mr. Erdogan’s speeches are aired in full. And this weekend’s vote will be overseen by an election board that, during recent votes, has made questionable calls that benefited the president. And yet, Mr. Erdogan could still lose. But Mr. Erdogan’s grip on the country could also contribute to his undoing, if voters drop him because of his strongman ways and persistently high inflation that has left Turks feeling poorer.
He came to prominence as mayor of Istanbul in the 1990s, and was celebrated in the first decade of the new millennium for transforming Turkey's economy into an emerging market powerhouse. But recent years have been far less rosy for the religiously conservative leader, whose own economic policies have triggered a cost-of-living crisis. Now, given a recent downturn in support for Erdogan, some fear he may play dirty to ensure his hold on power. The stakes are high for the entire country and, more broadly, global geopolitics – and the mood on the ground is tense. Mustafa Kamaci | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images"I'm very concerned that [Erdogan] may deploy underhanded tactics, cheating and even violence," Ibish said.
In pictures: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
  + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: 1 min
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won Turkey's presidential election after defeating opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu in a runoff vote May 28. With the win, Erdogan, 69, extended his power into a third decade. He was elected to his first term as president in 2014 after serving as prime minister since 2003. Kilicdaroglu represented the party formed 100 years ago by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founding father of modern Turkey and a die-hard secularist. Turkey's election came months after a deadly earthquake rocked the country's southeast on February 6, killing more than 50,000 people there and in neighboring Syria.
Turkey is expected to head to the polls on Sunday. In the event of a victory by Erdogan, it's "highly likely the Turkish lira collapses within months," the founder of advisory firm Cribstone Strategic Macro Mike Harris told CNBC. "Ultimately the lack of confidence in investment will mean that the Turkish Lira will probably be among the worst performing currencies in the world for some time," he said. Turkey's monetary policy prioritizes the pursuit of growth and export competition rather than assuaging inflation. Erdogan endorses the unconventional view that raising interest rates increases inflation, rather than taming it.
Western observers dislike Erdogan's foreign policy, but a different leader is unlikely to change course. Critics charge that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's foreign policy is a direct outgrowth of his illiberal posture at home rather than shrewd geopolitics. Whether Erdogan or his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, wins, the interests guiding Turkey's foreign policy will require the same balancing act that eschews alignment with any great-power bloc and maximizes Ankara's freedom of action. Locals applaud as a convoy of Turkish trucks carrying tanks near Turkey's border with Syria in October 2019. By prioritizing independence and autonomy, foreign policy under a prospective Kilicdaroglu administration will embody a significant degree of continuity from his predecessor.
ApartmentComplex Before dawn on Feb. 6, a powerful earthquake in southern Turkey destroyed an upscale apartment complex, killing hundreds. The main building in the Renaissance complex toppled over, evidence that the building had major vulnerabilities on the lower level and the south side. Tall column Recreational space on ground floor Antis Yapi via Facebook The most vulnerable part of Renaissance was the ground floor, which had an open layout. 3-D model highlights the ground floor columns and recreational spaces. The horizontal forces could have weakened the ground floor columns and possibly torn them apart.
CNN —For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s longest serving ruler, Sunday’s upcoming election may be the end of a two-decade winning streak. Following an attempted coup to unseat Erdogan, the Russian president called his Turkish counterpart and offered his country’s support. Still, it was not enough to change the eastern tilt of Turkish foreign policy. Whether Erdogan wins or loses, Ankara is unlikely to untangle itself from Moscow and turn back to the West. (The Turkish president has previously dismissed concerns about press freedom in his country).
According to a 2022 UNHCR poll of Syrian refugees living in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, only 1.7% said they would return to Syria in the next 12 months. Even before Arab normalization with the Assad regime began, human rights organizations had repeatedly warned that Syrian refugees risked facing forced returns home amid concerns for their safety. Earlier this year, Denmark – which hosts more than 35,000 Syrian refugees – deemed more areas controlled by the Assad regime to be safe for return. “The further normalization goes, the deeper the pressure will be.”Alshogre worries for himself as well as other Syrian refugees. “If I am sent back to Syria, I will be cut into small pieces by the Syrian regime; I won’t make it out of the airport in Damascus.”
Turkish presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu leads the country’s largest opposition party. ISTANBUL—Turkey’s top opposition candidate for president, Kemal Kilicdaroglu , resting in a hotel suite after addressing throngs of screaming supporters, said he would steer Turkey closer to NATO and the West if he wins Sunday’s election. If Mr. Kilicdaroglu prevails, he says, he would breathe new life into Turkey’s democratic checks and balances after years in which incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan jailed political opponents and reshaped the state to become the most powerful Turkish leader in a century.
And thanks to a regulation that Mr. Erdogan pushed in the months leading up to the vote, Mr. Akbulut will soon receive an early pension from the government — at age 46. “I will vote for the president,” he added. “Is there anyone else?”The presidential and parliamentary elections are shaping up to be Mr. Erdogan’s toughest electoral fight during his two decades as Turkey’s predominate politician. A cost-of-living crisis has angered many voters, and his government stands accused of mismanaging the initial response to catastrophic earthquakes in February. Recent polls suggest a tight race — and, perhaps, even a defeat — for Mr. Erdogan.
The strengthening ties between Erdogan and Putin have caused jitters in the West, with some watching the upcoming elections with anticipation of a possible Erdogan exit. That makes Russia among Turkey’s biggest trade partners. The European Union, as a bloc, however remains Turkey’s largest trade partner, with bilateral trade reaching around $219 billion, according to the European Commission. But while relations with the EU might improve if the opposition wins, the road may be longer and more challenging with the US, experts say. “When we mention Turkey’s relationship with the West… we sometimes take both ends of the Atlantic (as one),” Isci said.
MERSIN, Turkey—Muzeyyen Bahap plans to travel nearly 200 miles to vote in Turkey’s coming presidential election on May 14. She is one of the millions of Turkish voters who were displaced by a massive earthquake that struck swaths of the country and could play a decisive role in an election that could mark the end of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ’s 20 years in power.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the operation that killed Islamic State’s top leader took place on Saturday but gave few other details. Photo: adem altan/Agence France-Presse/Getty ImagesISTANBUL—President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Islamic State’s top leader died during a Turkish intelligence operation in what would be the extremist group’s third chief to be killed in less than a year and a half. In an interview late Sunday night with state television, Mr. Erdogan said Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization had followed what he called “the so-called leader” of Islamic State, code-named Abu al-Husayn al-Qurayshi, “for a long time.” Mr. Erdogan said the operation took place on Saturday but gave few other details.
And even if Kilicdaroglu wins the election, some analysts say Erdogan may not hand over power to his successor without a struggle. Here’s what you need to know about the vote that could become a pivotal moment in Turkey’s modern history:How Turkey’s elections workTurkey holds elections every five years. Parliamentary elections take place at the same time as the presidential elections. Four candidates are running for this year’s presidential election. CHP Istanbul mayor candidate Ekrem Imamoglu then went on to win the election re-run, dealing a blow to Erdogan.
CNN —Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed on Sunday that the country’s intelligence forces had killed the leader of ISIS in Syria as he vowed to continue the country’s fight against terrorism. In a broadcast, Erdogan said Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization had been tracking a man known as Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini Al-Qurshi “for a long time.”“This person was neutralized in the operation carried out by MIT (Turkish National Intelligence Organization) yesterday in Syria,” he said. Little was known about Al-Qurshi, but at the time of his appointment, ISIS described him as an “old fighter.”Erdogan’s announcement came after a recent absence from the public eye due to illness. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses his supporters during an election rally in Ankara, Turkey on April 30, 2023. Cagla Gurdogan/ReutersMedia reports had speculated that his health was deteriorating just two weeks before a crucial election.
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