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☆ In order to get further support for this rally, yields need to come down, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIn order to get further support for this rally, yields need to come down, says Morgan Stanley's Mike WilsonMorgan Stanley's Mike Wilson joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss his bullish call around the midterm elections, whether a divided government would actually be good for the markets and his call for the next year.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 27, 2022 in New York City. Stocks continued their upward gains Thursday with the Dow rising nearly 400 points following a new GDP report that beat expectations. Stock futures were little changed on Tuesday evening as polls began to close in the United States midterm elections. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up just 2 points, or less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures edged higher by 0.2%.

☆ The election could be a big tailwind for stocks heading into the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The average annual return of the S & P 500 in the 12 months before a midterm election since 1962 is 0.3%, "significantly lower than the historical average of 8.1%," US Bancorp said in a recent note. In the 12-month period after a midterm election, the S & P is up an average of 16.3%. The outperformance was especially notable in the period three months and six months after the election, when the S & P was up 7.3% and 15.1% on average. Most attribute the reason for underperformance to policy uncertainty — investors do not know which political party will hold a majority in Congress, which resolves after the midterm election. The S & P was higher 88.9% of the time.

☆ Here's how the Fed's rate hike can move markets and whether to expect a central bank pivot
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That bank thinks the Fed is going to skirt any talk of a pivot, and opt for continued rate hikes albeit at a slower pace. Goldman Sachs listed three reasons the Fed will carry on with rate hikes:US inflation will remain "sticky" so a pivot won't be justified. Keeping rate hikes going until March 2023 will set up the central bank for a future pivot. US stock futures rise early Wednesday, as eyes turn toward the Fed's rate hike decision later today. Here's what you want to know about the 1920 rule that's still moving markets more than a century later.

☆ The Fed is about to 'downshift' and weaker earnings don't matter to stocks, says top Evercore strategist
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Julian Emanuel also told Bloomberg on Tuesday that earnings don't matter that much for stocks. "I don't want to call it 'pause' ... but we know the trajectory is gonna change, and the market is getting comfortable with that." "At the same time, just like the July earnings season, we know that the numbers are coming down," Emanuel said. "It didn't matter [for] stocks in July, and it doesn't matter now, because frankly people have been, for the most part, underinvested." That view contrasts with those of other Wall Street analysts, who have said earnings could lead stocks lower.

☆ Markets need to price in the extremely elevated risk of a recession before a sustainable rally can take shape, JPMorgan strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Risks of a recession are "extremely elevated" JPMorgan strategist Gabriela Santos said, warning a downturn could come mid-2023. The odds of a recession are at 50% today, compared to normal levels of 15%, she told CNBC. Santos added those risks needed to be priced into the market before a sustainable rally could take place. Though a soft landing is still possible, she put the odds of a recession at 50% today, compared to normal levels of 15%. "We would still put the odds at over the next 12 months as extremely elevated versus what's normal," Santos said on Tuesday in an interview with CNBC.

☆ Goldman Sachs lays out 3 reasons why the Fed won't pivot, but will keep hiking into 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve will carry on hiking interest rates after its February meeting, Goldman Sachs said. It will keep raising rates because of sticky inflation and to prepare for a potential pivot, Goldman said. The Goldman Sachs team, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, forecast the Fed will then transition to smaller rate hikes for three reasons. Last, bringing in smaller rate hikes until March will put the Fed in a better position for a future pivot. Read more: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the Fed will pivot from interest rate hikes 'sooner rather than later' to help stocks rally by his predicted 6%

☆ Bear market isn't over, but markets are unlikely to see new lows in 2023, says Morgan Stanley's Wilson
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBear market isn't over, but markets are unlikely to see new lows in 2023, says Morgan Stanley's WilsonMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer, joins the 'Halftime Report' to offer his technical rally call and market expectations for 2023.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Morgan Stanley's Mike WilsonMike Wilson, Morgan Stanley chief investment officer, joins the 'Halftime Report' to offer his technical rally call and market expectations for 2023.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who's nailed the market this year, says bounce has a bit further to go
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Morgan Stanley equity strategist Mike Wilson, a prominent market bear who called 2022's sell-off, now believes the comeback rally could last longer if the Federal Reserve turns dovish this week. "Until next-12-month EPS estimates come down meaningfully the rally can continue, particularly if the Fed meeting leads to lower rates," Wilson said in a Monday note. "This week's Fed meeting is critical for the rally to continue, pause or even end completely." He set his year-end target at 3,900, compared with an average forecast of 4,023, according to a CNBC market strategist survey that rounds out 15 top strategists' outlooks. A big headwind the market faces right now is deteriorating corporate earnings, especially lower guidance, Wilson said.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the Fed will pivot from interest rate hikes 'sooner rather than later' to help stocks rally by his predicted 6%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson expects the Federal Reserve to end its tightening campaign soon. That could lift the S&P 500 by 6% to 4,150 points, according to Wilson. The next Fed meeting is "critical for the rally to continue, pause or even end completely," he said. Wilson's optimistic S&P 500 call may surprise some investors. Weak third-quarter earnings "hammered some of the biggest tech darlings, yet the S&P 500 and even the Nasdaq 100 ended the week up 4% and 2%, respectively," Morgan Stanley said.

☆ What Cramer is watching Monday — October's stock pop, tech reign over, China's zero Covid
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Club holding Wynn Resorts (WYNN) jumps 5% in the premarket after a 4.5% pop Friday. UBS downgrades Caterpillar (CAT) to neutral (hold) from buy; cuts price target by $5-per-share to $230, which is silly. Outback Steakhouse owner Bloomin' Brands (BLMN): two price target boosts, Citi and Barclays. Barclays: LyondellBasell (LYB) downgraded to equal weight from overweight (hold from buy), cut price target to $82 per share from $95. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Here's why Goldman Sachs is warning about a stock market crash and recession.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Dust off your dictionaries because today's GDP release might reignite the recession debate that's proved as semantic as it is economic. There are a couple things on Goldman Sachs' radar at the moment, and neither are particularly upbeat. Morgan Stanley's top strategist said investors should look for the bear market to end in the first quarter of 2023. The housing market has a big disconnect that can't last and prices for new homes have a long way to fall. This 27-year-old real estate investor who owns nine properties in Alabama said you shouldn't sleep on the Birmingham market.

☆ Investors should look for the bear market to be over in the first quarter of 2023, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors could see the bear market end as soon as early next year, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. "We think the market will hold up and that will be another positive catalyst," Wilson told Bloomberg. Wilson noted that the outlook was fluid and he would turn bearish again if the S&P 500 fell below 3650. "We think the market will hold up and that will be another positive catalyst, because if the market doesn't go down on bad news, and the market doesn't go down on bad news and fundamentals, what do you have?" Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel echoed those points, predicting stocks could rally 30% next year as long as the Fed doesn't overtighten the economy and tip the US into a recession.

☆ The stock market could rally for another few months as upbeat earnings mask the pain to come in 2023, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Earnings may not fall fast enough to give investors a preview of pain to come, according to Mike Wilson. "The finishing move is going to be all about earnings disappointment," Wilson told Bloomberg TV. The bank's chief equity strategist Mike Wilson said Thursday that surprisingly upbeat earnings are failing to show investors that earnings are set to fall and the stock market has yet to bottom out. "We're not sure that earnings are going to come down fast enough to convince the market how bad 2023 is going to be on the earnings front," he told Bloomberg TV. But Wilson believes investors have stopped buying into bear market rallies and are now fatigued to the point where they're waiting for an obvious stock market bottom.

Oct 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeeverWhisper it, but the rebound underway on Wall Street - which is lifting markets and risk appetite everywhere - may have legs. This should put Asian markets on a positive footing on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterU.S. earnings are rolling in nicely, with some notable beats like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. The issues that crushed markets this year - rapid tightening of policy and financial conditions, growth fears, sticky inflation and messy fiscal policy - haven't gone away. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Top Goldman Sachs strategist picks the global small-cap stocks he says look cheap
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Small-cap stocks are having a difficult time, even by this year's bear market standard. But Goldman Sachs ' Peter Oppenheimer believes the worst could be over for smaller companies, and names several stocks he likes within the space. "Small caps are down 34% year-to-date. Investors hoping for a respite in the fortunes of small caps could be in for a longer wait, however. Global stock picks While a turnaround in small caps may not be imminent, Oppenheimer believes the sector now looks "inexpensive."

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson flags a key risk to earnings — and names the stocks to avoid
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Zavier Ong | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Morgan Stanley believes U.S companies are facing an inventory problem — and it's a key risk to earnings. "The problem with inventory is two-fold: supply chain bottlenecks are clearing while demand, especially demand for goods, is slowing," Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michelle Weaver and Mike Wilson wrote in an Oct. 10 note. Morgan Stanley believes the inventory problem has now become a risk to earnings, with oversupply and lagging demand likely to weigh on companies' margins. However, although a broad problem for the market and for goods producing industries in particular, not all industries are impacted to the same degree, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank found that tech hardware and consumer retail companies are among the most at risk from excess inventory.

☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees a bear market rally that can lead to an 11% gain from here
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The stock market's historic turnaround last week following a hotter-than-expected inflation report was the beginning of a tradeable short-term rally, according to Morgan Stanley. The S & P 500 closed lower on Friday at 3,583.07, after notching a 2.6% gain the day before following the CPI report. "[We] would not rule out another attempt to re-take the 200-day moving average. While that seems like an awfully big move, it would be in line with prior bear market rallies this year and prior ones." However, he added: "We also believe the 200-week moving average will eventually give way like it typically does when earnings forecasts fall by 20% [or more].

☆ Morgan Stanley CIO: Stocks can rally in the short term
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley CIO: Stocks can rally in the short termMike Wilson, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss markets pricing in the earnings recession, the technical relevance of the 20-week moving average, and the potential drivers of interest rate revisions.

☆ CNBC Pro Talks: Portfolio manager Brian Arcese to discuss top stock picks, inflation hedges and more
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Cnbc.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Portfolio Manager Arcese joined Foord in 2014, and currently manages the Foord Global Equity fund and Foord SICAV - Foord International Fund. Join CNBC for the next installment of Pro Talks on Thursday, October 20 at 6:30 a.m. BST / 1:30 p.m. SGT / 1:30 a.m. Check out our previous Pro Talks: CNBC Pro Talks: Asset manager Neil Veitch on top picks — and stocks to avoid — as volatility persists Is 'super cheap' Meta a buy or a miss? Portfolio Manager Arcese joined Foord in 2014, and currently manages the Foord Global Equity fund and Foord SICAV - Foord International Fund. Join CNBC for the next installment of Pro Talks on Thursday, October 20 at 6:30 a.m. BST / 1:30 p.m. SGT / 1:30 a.m.

☆ We may get a soft landing in jobs, says Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe may get a soft landing in jobs, says Morgan Stanley's Mike WilsonMike Wilson, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, joins 'TechCheck' to discuss forward earnings for next year, pricing in a downturn in earnings, and plans for layoffs given the workers' shortage.

☆ Here's when Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson sees a 'true Fed pivot' coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should not bank on a pivot from the Federal Reserve as the stock market enters a key period of earnings reports and inflation readings, according to Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson. "We don't think there's an imminent pivot coming anytime soon, in terms of a true pivot where they not only cause but really start cutting rates. Consensus earnings estimates for the next 12 months could be 20% too high, according to Morgan Stanley's models. And we just don't think that's priced," Wilson said. Wilson does think that investors can buy some stocks but only after their expectations are reset, such as through a guidance cut.

☆ The market is flashing signs that a new bottom is forming and stocks could be poised for a fresh rally, Oppenheimer head technical analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Markets are showing signs that stocks are nearing a bottom, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald said. Wald pointed to resilience in small cap stocks amid a sell-off in the S&P 500. The technical signal is the opposite of what would flash at a market top and means a new rally could be near. But that fallout hasn't been seen in small cap stocks, Wald said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday – which could be a signal that a new rally is in the cards. Typically at a market top, S&P 500 makes a higher high, small caps make a lower high," he added.

☆ There's renewed hope in the possibility that global central banks are nearing the end of their rate hike cycle. Here's how that's driving markets.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-05 | by ( Hallam Bullock | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Central bank moves and softer economic data have investors hoping that the Fed and other central banks are almost done hiking interest rates. There's some renewed hope for a Fed pivot on the horizon. Australia's central bank surprised forecasters by raising interest rates by a less-than-expected 25 basis points, becoming the first central bank to abandon its path of jumbo rate hikes. Fewer job openings mean employers aren't compelled to offer more competitive wages. Number of job openings Chart: Andy Kiersz and Madison Hoff Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED10.

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