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☆ Fed officials see lots of room to shed bonds from balance sheet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

It now aims to unload just shy of $100 billion per month, and so far that approach has taken nearly $420 billion of bonds off the Fed's balance sheet. Fed officials and outside observers don't expect that to happen again. "So I would expect, you know, the process of balance sheet reduction to continue as it is." When the Fed announced its run-off plans last year, "all the interest rate effects from balance sheet tightening happened right away. Still, Fed balance sheet cuts should "stay intact until early 2024," analysts with forecasting firm LH Meyer wrote.

By announcing an inflation goal, central bankers feel they build credibility for themselves and focus the planning of households and firms in ways that help keep inflation controlled. Those decades, up to the end of the first year of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, saw inflation largely contained. Achieving that target is just core to our overall monetary policy," Brainard said, a sentiment echoed in central bank headquarters from Frankfurt to London to Tokyo. "Let me be quite clear, there are no ifs or buts in our commitment to the 2% inflation target," Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last year. Should inflation prove stickier than expected, achieving the central bank's 2% inflation goal could mean even more losses.

☆ Fed's words in focus as markets bet rate hikes will soon end
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The rate increase expected at the Federal Open Market Committee's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting would bring the policy rate to the 4.5%-4.75% range. That's two quarter-point rate hikes short of the level most Fed policymakers in December thought would be "sufficiently restrictive" to bring inflation under control. At the same time, he said, "there's going to be some caution" about doing anything that could feed market expectations that a pause in rate hikes is imminent. Fed policymakers, as of December at least, all see no rate cuts until 2024. "The key question is how committed they are to further rate hikes."

☆ Asia-Pacific markets set to rise as trade resumes after Lunar New Year holidays
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve officials next week are almost certain to approve another deceleration in interest rate hikes while also discussing when to stop the increases altogether, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is set to convene Jan. 31-Feb. 1, with markets pricing in almost a 100% chance of a quarter-point increase in the central bank's benchmark rate. Most prominently, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he sees a 0.25 percentage point increase as the preferred move for the upcoming meeting. A series of rate hikes begun in March 2022 has resulted in increases of 4.25 percentage points. Market pricing is currently indicating quarter-point hikes at the next two meetings, a period of no action, and then up to a half-point reduction by the end of 2023, according to CME Group data.

☆ Oil prices climb on hopes for Fed slowing interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Friday on optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ends its tightening cycle, buoying the economy and boosting fuel demand. Both closed 1% higher on Thursday, near their highest closing levels since Dec. 1. A number of other Fed officials have expressed support for a downshift in the pace of rate rises. A rebound in Chinese economy and the Russian oil industry's struggles under sanctions could tighten energy markets in 2023, International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol said on Thursday. Reporting by Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Kenneth MaxwellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Williams: Inflation remains too high, Fed has more work to do
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Williams: Inflation remains too high, Fed has more work to doCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on comments from the New York Federal Reserve president John Williams.

☆ Morning bid: No safety net?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"I just think we need to keep going," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said. And many forecasters are now wary the Fed will err on the side of tighter policy to ensure inflation is slayed. Markets wobbled on the prospect on Wednesday, with the S&P500 (.SPX) staging its biggest decline of the year so far. At 3.32%, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest since September. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Fed's Williams says Fed needs more rate rises to cool inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

“Bringing inflation down is likely to require a period of below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions,” Williams warned. A number of other Federal Reserve officials have expressed support for a downshift in the pace of rate rises. Last year, the Fed moved its short-term interest rate target higher at a historically aggressive pace in a bid to fight the highest inflation seen in decades. It moved from a near zero federal funds rate in March to between 4.25% and 4.5% by year's end. At the December meeting, officials penciled in a 5.1% stopping point for rate hikes this year and increased their target rate by half a percentage point at that gathering.

☆ Morning Bid: Turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders took Wednesday's weak U.S. production, retail sales and producer price data badly, selling risk assets and buying safer ones. Bond markets shrugged off hawkish rhetoric from non-voting Fed officials Bullard and Mester to rally. Fed voters Lael Brainard and John Williams might get more of markets' attention at events later in the day. Elsewhere, the dust is settling quickly on the Bank of Japan's decision not to bend to speculators' attack on its yield curve control policy. The yen has bounced back to where it was before the meeting and the Nikkei (.N225) slipped, though calm in Japan's bond market might suggest short sellers are having a breather before re-loading for meetings in March and April.

☆ In 2022 inflation data trumped Fed comments for moving markets, report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In terms of market moves, “the sheer volatility around each CPI release is remarkable” and reflects the magnitude of inflation surprises last year and how those unexpected readings changed the outlook for Fed policy, they wrote. Last year was the year the Fed got caught flatfooted by the highest levels of inflation seen in 40 years. Rates will almost certainly go up further this year even as inflation pressures are showing some initial signs of cooling. Among policymakers, the report found that remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, Vice-Chair Lael Brainard and New York Fed leader John Williams had notable market impacts. The report did not rank the market impact of the 11 remaining regional Fed leaders, who speak with much greater frequency than Board members and even the New York Fed leader.

☆ 10-year Treasury yields climb as traders await Fed speaker comments, key economic data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was up three basis points to 3.5476%. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Tuesday as traders looked to remarks from Federal Reserve speakers that could provide hints about the central bank's policy plans and awaited key economic data. Traders are hoping for fresh hints about the Fed's interest rate policy plans from a series of central bank speakers throughout the week. After announcing four consecutive 75 basis point rate hikes, the Fed slightly slowed the pace to 50 basis points at its last meeting in December. Many traders are hoping for the central bank to further slow, or completely pause, rate hikes this year.

☆ Morning Bid: Ugly duckling
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaWhile Chinese economic data didn't come in worse than markets had feared, investors still couldn't come to terms with the scale of the economic pain being felt in the world's second-largest economy. Asian stock markets dipped and the broad-based MSCI's Asia Pacific share index outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) retreated away from seven-month highs, and Chinese equities stocks also retreated. European and UK stock futures, however, pointed to a steady start. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) is just a whisker away from its record high of 7,903.5 points. Tuesday's batch of economic data coming up include UK jobs numbers, German inflation and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment survey.

☆ Morning bid: Dodging a downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Global investors have fretted endlessly about a 2023 recession for the major global economies for more than six months. And Tuesday's latest economic healthcheck showed that the severe hit to Chinese economic activity from the draconian lockdown policies was actually much less than feared. The survey showed that investors' recession expectations peaked at a net 77% of respondents in November but have fallen to 68% in January. The BofA survey showed fund managers may have already repositioned, however, as their allocation to U.S. equities dived in January and a net 39% said they were underweight while preferring euro zone stocks.

☆ Corporate profit reports in the week ahead could show whether there's an 'earnings recession'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors in the week ahead will focus on how much inflation and the slowing economy have chiseled away at corporate profits, as companies including Goldman Sachs , Netflix and Procter & Gamble report earnings. "This is going to be the start of the clock ticking on an earnings recession," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. Economic recession talk heats up "There's never been a recession without an earnings recession since World War II," Agati said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said this coming earnings week could be an important step towards assessing the health of corporate balance sheets. Week ahead calendar Monday Martin Luther King Jr. Day Markets closed Tuesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Citizens Financial, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers 8:30 a.m.

☆ Factbox: Golden Globe awards: Full list of nominees
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

[1/5] Butler poses backstage after receiving the Breakthrough Performance Award at the 34th Annual Palm Springs International Film Festival Awards gala in Palm Springs, California, U.S., January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Mario AnzuoniJan 10 (Reuters) - Hollywood gathers on Tuesday for the 2023 Golden Globes, the first major awards show of the season. After diversity and ethics scandals at the Globes organizer - the Hollywood Foreign Press Association - NBC declined to air the ceremony in 2022, but will broadcast the show this year for its 80th anniversary. The following is the full list of nominees:MOVIESBEST PICTURE-DRAMA“Avatar: The Way of Water”“Elvis”“The Fabelmans”“Tar”“Top Gun: Maverick”BEST PICTURE-MUSICAL OR COMEDY"Babylon"“The Banshees of Inisherin”“Everything Everywhere All at Once”“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”“Triangle of Sadness”BEST ANIMATED FILM“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”“Inu-Oh”“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”“Turning Red”BEST PICTURE-NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE“All Quiet on the Western Front" (Germany)“Argentina, 1985" (Argentina)“Close" (Belgium)“Decision to Leave" (South Korea)“RRR" (India)BEST ACTRESS, DRAMACate Blanchett, "Tar"Olivia Colman, “Empire of Light”Viola Davis, "The Woman King”Ana de Armas, "Blonde”Michelle Williams, "The Fabelmans”BEST ACTOR, DRAMAAustin Butler, “Elvis”Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”Hugh Jackman, “The Son”Bill Nighy, “Living”Jeremy Pope, “The Inspection”BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL OR COMEDYLesley Manville, "Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris"Margot Robbie, “Babylon”Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Menu”Emma Thompson, “Good Luck to You, Leo Grande”Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL OR COMEDYDiego Calva, “Babylon”Daniel Craig, “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”Adam Driver, “White Noise”Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Ralph Fiennes, “The Menu”BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSAngela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”Dolly De Leon, “Triangle of Sadness”Carey Mulligan, “She Said”BEST SUPPORTING ACTORBrendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Brad Pitt, “Babylon”Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse”BEST DIRECTORJames Cameron, “Avatar: The Way of Water”Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”Baz Luhrmann, “Elvis”Martin McDonagh, “The Banshees of Inisherin”Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”BEST SCREENPLAY“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh“Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert“The Fabelmans,” Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner“Tar,” Todd Field“Women Talking,” Sarah PolleyBEST ORIGINAL SCORE“Babylon,” Justin Hurwitz“The Banshees of Inisherin,” Carter Burwell“The Fabelmans,” John Williams“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio,” Alexandre Desplat“Women Talking,” Hildur GuðnadóttirBEST ORIGINAL SONG“Lift Me Up” by Tems, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Ryan Coogler (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)“Ciao Papa” by Alexandre Desplat, Roeban Katz, Guillermo del Toro (“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio”)“Naatu Naatu” by Kala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, Rahul Sipligunj (“RRR")“Hold My Hand” by Lady Gaga, BloodPop, Benjamin Rice (“Top Gun: Maverick”)“Carolina” by Taylor Swift (“Where the Crawdads Sing”)TELEVISIONBEST DRAMA SERIES“Better Call Saul” (AMC)“The Crown” (Netflix)“House of the Dragon” (HBO Max)“Ozark” (Netflix)“Severance” (Apple TV+)BEST MUSICAL OR COMEDY SERIES“Abbott Elementary” (ABC)“The Bear” (FX)“Hacks” (HBO Max)“Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)“Wednesday” (Netflix)BEST LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE“Black Bird” (Apple TV+)“Dahmer - Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)“The Dropout” (Hulu)“Pam and Tommy” (Hulu)“The White Lotus” (HBO Max)BEST ACTRESS, DRAMAEmma D'Arcy, “House of the Dragon”Laura Linney, "Ozark”Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”Hilary Swank, “Alaska Daily”Zendaya, “Euphoria”BEST ACTOR, DRAMAJeff Bridges, “The Old Man”Kevin Costner, “Yellowstone”Diego Luna, “Andor”Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”Adam Scott, “Severance”BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL OR COMEDYQuinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”Selena Gomez, “Only Murders in the Building”Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”Jean Smart, “Hacks”BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL OR COMEDYDonald Glover, “Atlanta”Bill Hader, “Barry”Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS, MUSICAL, COMEDY OR DRAMAElizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks”Julia Garner, “Ozark”Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, MUSICAL, COMEDY or DRAMAJohn Lithgow, “The Old Man”Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown”John Turturro, “Severance”Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”Henry Winkler, “Barry”BEST ACTRESS, LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES or TV MOVIEJessica Chastain, “George and Tammy”Julia Garner

☆ Happy Fed Year: What’s on deck for the central bank in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —America’s central bank found itself in a glaring spotlight for much of this past year, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell wielded blunt tools of interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening to curb surging inflation. That means the Fed, with its “laser focus on the job market,” could be “continually hawkish” at the start of 2023, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “This latent strength in the job market could be the reason that the Fed over-tightens,” he told CNN. Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, from right, Lael Brainard, vice chair of the board of governors for the Federal Reserve System, and John Williams, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, during a break at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in Moran, Wyoming, on Aug. 26, 2022. That’s 0.2 percentage points higher than the 4.4% rate they were expecting in September and significantly higher than the current 3.7% rate.

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. "When people adjust their expectations after the Fed meeting, higher rates typically imply more compressed multiples for growth stocks." Further, hawkish messages delivered by three Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams last week underscored the U.S. central bank's determination to do what it takes to ease price pressures. Still, money market participants are pricing in 61% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike in February to 4.5%-4.75%, with a terminal rate of 4.84% in May 2023. The S&P index recorded five new 52-week highs and 15 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 42 new highs and 335 new lows.

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. However, money market participants still place a 73.5% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike in February to 4.5%-4.75%, with a terminal rate of 4.84% in May 2023. ET, Dow e-minis were up 14 points, or 0.04%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.5 points, or 0.12%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23 points, or 0.2%. Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) advanced 2.7% after Jefferies upgraded the biotechnology firm's stock to "buy" from "hold", citing cancer therapy opportunities. Reporting by Shubham Batra and Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Futures higher after two-week selloff, Tesla jumps on Musk poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. REUTERS/Andrew KellySummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.31%, S&P 0.40%, Nasdaq 0.49%Dec 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Monday after equities suffered two straight weeks of losses, while Tesla shares rose after CEO Elon Musk launched a poll asking if he should quit as Twitter's boss. However, money market participants still place a 73.5% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike in February to 4.5%-4.75%, with a terminal rate of 4.84% in May 2023. ET, Dow e-minis were up 102 points, or 0.31%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15.5 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 55.5 points, or 0.49%. Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) advanced 4.2% after Jefferies upgraded the biotechnology firm's stock to "buy" from "hold", citing cancer therapy opportunities.

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. "When people adjust their expectations after the Fed meeting, higher rates typically imply more compressed multiples for growth stocks." Further, hawkish messages delivered by three Fed officials including New York Fed President John Williams last week underscored the U.S. central bank's determination to do what it takes to ease price pressures. Still, money market participants are pricing in 65% chance of a 25 basis points rate hike in February to 4.5%-4.75%, with a terminal rate of 4.84% in May 2023. The S&P index recorded five new 52-week highs and eight new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded two new highs and 59 new lows.

Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure is currently running at 6%, three times its 2% target. Inflation has cooled in recent months, as supply chain problems eased and higher interest rates have restrained the housing market. Over the past several rate-hiking cycles, the Fed raised rates and kept them there for an average of 11 months before cutting them. She said her own forecast for rates is in line with the 5.1% peak rate expected by the majority of her colleagues. Fed policymakers this week forecast GDP growing about a half-a-percent next year.

☆ U.S. dollar gains as risk tolerance drops with hawkish central banks
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar rose on Friday in choppy trading, extending sharp gains in the previous session as risk appetite soured, as investors grappled with the prospect that borrowing costs still have a long way to climb. New York Fed President John Williams upped the hawkish rhetoric on Friday, saying it remains possible the U.S. central bank raises interest rates more than it currently expects next year. That said, financial markets do not seem to be buying the hawkish Fed stance. The dollar index, which gauges the currency against six major peers, rose 0.2% to 104.69, after rallying more than 0.9% on Thursday. The index has surged around 9% this year as the Fed has hiked interest rates hard, sucking money back towards dollar-denominated bonds.

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 14, 2022. Adding to angst, New York Fed President John Williams said it remains possible the U.S. central bank raises rates more than it expects next year. The policymaker added that he does not anticipate a recession from the Fed's aggressive tightening. The simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures and index options contracts later in the day, known as triple witching, could cause volatility through the trading session. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and 15 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 29 new highs and 267 new lows.

☆ Stock futures are flat as investors look ahead to Federal Reserve speakers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are flat Thursday evening as investors responded to data that elevated concerns of a looming recession and looked ahead to a slate of Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for Friday. They will also look for any hints on future Fed policy from speakers John Williams, Michelle Bowman and Mary Daly. Investors are trying to gauge the pace of future rate hikes and the central bank's view of the economy. There also will be data coming in the morning with December's purchasing managers' indexes within services and manufacturing. Manufacturing is expected to come in at the same rate as November, while services is expected to increase by 0.3 points.

☆ How 'A Charlie Brown Christmas' became a holiday music hit
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Aj Willingham | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

CNN —The familiar tunes of “A Charlie Brown Christmas” transport us. In 1965, when “A Charlie Brown Christmas” first aired, Christmas jazz wasn’t exactly a thing. The musical formula they created didn’t just make “A Charlie Brown Christmas” an instant hit. “Bossa nova was one of the things that helped smooth its way to popularity.”A still from 1965's "A Charlie Brown Christmas." A woman listens to music from "A Charlie Brown Christmas" on her phone in 2013.

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