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We've explained how current high-yield savings accounts beat inflation rates, and what Fed rate cuts mean for your savings. How does inflation affect savingsIn order to understand how high-yield savings accounts beat inflation, you first have to understand what inflation is. Dixon says that, while high-yield savings accounts are good for shorter-term savings such as emergency funds, investing can be a good longer-term strategy — as long as you understand the risk. If your savings aren't kept in a high-yield savings account, the interest you earn on your savings could be outpaced by the current inflation rate. Using a high-yield savings account can help you save your savings from inflation because current high-yield savings account rates are higher than current inflation rates.
Persons: , We've, Patrina Dixon, there's, Dorsainvil, Dixon, it's, aren't Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Consumer, Dorsainvil, YGC, CME, Am Locations: CFEI, U.S
Treasury yields rise as attention turns to inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than two basis points to 3.9647%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the latest inflation prints and other key economic data slated for the week. Amid continued uncertainty about the state of the U.S. economy, investors looked ahead to fresh inflation data due this week. When the Fed met last month, it left rates unchanged, but hinted that a September rate cut was on the table, depending on signals from economic data, both on the inflation and labor market front. Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut from the Fed in September, but traders were last split on the size of the cut, CME Group's FedWatch tool showed.
Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
Looking back, quarterly earnings also played a key role in big stock moves for the portfolio. Looking ahead, we'll see an update on some key inflation data, plus a closer look at the state of the housing and retail sectors. ET: Producer Price Index Earnings: Home Depot (HD), Pandora (PANDY), Nu Holdings (NU), Sea Limited (SE) Wednesday, August 14 8:30 a.m. ET: Consumer Price Index Earnings: Tencent Holdings (TCEHY), Cisco (CSCO), UBS (UBS), JD.com (JD) Thursday, August 15 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Walt, Jim Cramer, we've, JD.com, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Walt Disney, Microsoft, Ford Motor, Wynn Resorts, DuPont, Devices, Procter, Gamble, Club, Abbott Laboratories, Federal, Traders, Sun Life, Nu Holdings, Sea, Tencent Holdings, Cisco, UBS, Philadelphia Fed, Walmart, Materials, Deere & Co, Ross Stores, Lenovo, Housing, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Dover, Wells Fargo, Nextracker, Eaton
In just a few short days, markets have taken some of the urgency off the table for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. Earlier in the week, there were even some calls for an emergency intermeeting rate cut. At the least, markets figured the Fed was a near-certainty to reduce benchmark rates by at least a half percentage point. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel has been one of the loudest voices for aggressive Fed action, calling Monday for an emergency cut . The Fed has been holding its benchmark rate in a range between 5.25%-5.50% for more than a year.
Persons: we've, Steven Wieting, Wieting, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Jerome Powell, Siegel, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Reserve, Citi Wealth, Labor Department
The wildest week of 2024 has investors bracing for more volatility in the week ahead, with key insight on the consumer and inflation coming at a time when recession fears are top of mind. Inflation, labor data Next week's inflation data could get less attention than it has over the past year when the Fed's fight against pricing pressures put inflation reports on center stage. Recently, it's been the labor market getting the most attention. "The market's caring much more about about labor markets and growth, than they do inflation right now," Ladner said. Week ahead calendar All times ET Monday, Aug. 12 2 p.m. Treasury Budget (July) Tuesday, Aug. 13 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (July) Earnings: Home Depot Wednesday, Aug. 14 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (July) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Scott Ladner, it's, Ladner, , Strategas, Ryan Grabinski, RJ Assaly, Jeremy Siegel, Chen Zhao, Zhao, Price Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Home, Horizon Investments, Bank of Japan, Wharton, Fed, UBS, Investments, Treasury Budget, Price, Philadelphia Fed, Retail, Manufacturing, Materials, Tapestry, Deere, Co, Housing Locations: U.S, NAHB, Michigan
The recent unwinding of the yen "carry trade" could remain a long-term headwind amid already turbulent markets. JPY= YTD mountain The Japanese yen's appreciation against the U.S. dollar marked the unwinding of the so-called carry trade. "There's still quite a significant yen short position out there," Osborne said. He estimates that there is still a roughly $15 billion yen short position through July 30, still to be covered. In other words, that short position could drive more strength in the yen as that position is covered.
Persons: , Shaun Osborne, Osborne, Everyone's, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, FedWatch, Ben Emons Organizations: Bank of, U.S, Scotiabank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Wolfe Research, Swiss Locations: Bank of Japan, Japan
However, investors can continue generating portfolio income if they snap up the right dividend stocks. Dividend yields that are too high may also raise the question of whether the company can sustain these payments to investors. Data storage player Seagate Technology made the cut, with a three-year annualized dividend yield of 7.9%, according to Bank of America's analysis. Bank of America rates KeyCorp as a buy, and it sees the company and its peers benefiting as the Fed dials back its policy. Devon, which the bank rates as a buy, this week surpassed the Street's estimates on core earnings per share in the second quarter, per FactSet.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Wamsi Mohan, Mohan, Ebrahim Poonawala, Kraft, Merck Organizations: Federal Reserve, FedWatch, Bank of America, Seagate Technology, Bank of, KeyCorp, Devon Energy, Kraft Heinz, Simon Property Group Locations: Devon, Bank
Prices of safe-haven gold edged higher on Thursday, supported by Middle East tensions and optimism surrounding U.S. rate cuts, while traders awaited economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory. Gold prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, supported by firm safe-haven demand and growing expectations for a sizeable interest rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September. Spot gold rose 1.27% to settle at $2,463.3. Brokerages including J.P.Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo have forecast a 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Fed in September after last week's U.S. jobs data. Gold prices fell as much as 3% on Monday, caught in a global sell-off driven by fears of a U.S. recession.
Persons: Alex Ebkarian, Bullion Organizations: Federal, U.S . Federal Reserve, J.P.Morgan, Citigroup, Fed Locations: Iran, Israel, Wells, U.S
Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.
Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S
Mortgage rates plunge to lowest level in more than a year
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
Washington CNN —US mortgage rates plummeted this week after weaker-than-expected employment data raised the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month. The standard 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.47% this week, mortgage financing giant Freddie Mac said Thursday. Mortgage rates have steadily fallen over the past several weeks since reaching a 2024 peak of 7.22% in early May. Mortgage rates track the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which moves in anticipation of the Fed’s decision on interest rates. Lower mortgage rates and a bigger housing stock will eventually entice more buyers to eventually enter the market.
Persons: Freddie Mac, That’s, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, “ Homebuyers, ” Lawrence Yun, Lisa Sturtevant, Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal Reserve, Las, P Global, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, CNN, Treasury, National Association of Realtors, Fed, NAR, , Bright MLS Locations: New York, San Diego, Las Vegas, Tampa, Denver, Minneapolis, United States
JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
  + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The bank raised its probability for a U.S. or global recession to 35% by year end, chief global economist Bruce Kasman told clients in a Wednesday note. Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept its odds for a recessionary period by the second half of 2025 at 45%. But traders got better news on the labor market front on Thursday, with the volume of weekly jobless claims coming in lower than economists expected. To be sure, despite raising his odds, Kasman said investors should not assume all signs point to a recession. In fact, Kasman described his increase to near-term recession risk as modest.
Persons: Bruce Kasman, Kasman, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S
Now could be a good time to start buying stocks with high dividend yields, according to BMO Capital Markets. The highest-paying S & P 500 stocks have significantly underperformed the index over the last year and a half, even with the rebound they've enjoyed in recent months, said chief investment strategist Brian Belski. They are rated outperform by the firm's analysts and fall within the top 25% of S & P 500 stocks by dividend yield. Digital Realty Trust, which pays a 3.28% dividend yield, owns, develops and operates data centers — which are expected to see surging demand thanks to AI . Host Hotel & Resorts, which owns luxury and upper-upscale hotels, has a 4.92% dividend yield and is down 16% so far this year.
Persons: they've, Brian Belski, Belski, AbbVie Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Federal, Fed, BMO, Pfizer, pharma, AbbVie, Cerevel Therapeutics, American Electric Power, Southern Company, Utilities, Digital Realty Trust, Host Hotels, Resorts Locations: Southern
Gold buoyed by Fed rate-cut hopes, geopolitical concerns
  + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices firmed on Wednesday on mounting bets of U.S. interest rate cuts in September and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with markets awaiting U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,399.38 per ounce, as of 11:29 a.m. Bullion is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, China's central bank held back on buying gold for its reserves for a third straight month in July, official data showed on Wednesday.
Persons: Everett Millman, Bart Melek, they're, Millman Organizations: Co, Gainesville, TD Securities Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S, Israel, China's, China
In an August 1 note to clients, the bank's top global strategist urged investors to sell stocks when the Federal Reserve issues its first rate cut. Hartnett and his team studied the last 12 rate-cutting cycles going back to 1970 and identified three varieties of rate cuts. Hartnett said surging global central bank rate cuts are signs that the economy is in for a rough stretch. Investors expect the Fed to cut rates for the first time this cycle at its September meeting. "Emergency Fed rate cuts being priced in makes little sense given the economic backdrop in the U.S. and would only serve to destroy policy maker credibility."
Persons: , America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Louis, Jean, Louis Nakamura, Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Kantrowitz, Hartnett's, Jim Smigiel Organizations: Service, America's, Federal Reserve, Business, Bank of America Bank of America, Bank of America, Louis Fed, Bank of America's, Global, SEI Locations: U.S
Squeeze on carry trades leave currency markets on edge
  + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The yen was 1% lower on Tuesday at 145.78 per dollar in early trading, after rising for five straight sessions and touching a seven-month high of 141.675 on Monday. "Sell-offs that manifest themselves through wild swings in the currency markets are sharp and swift, but usually very short lived," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. "Markets are clearly nervous about the divergent paths central banks are taking, leading to lots of volatility." The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit versus six rivals, was flat at 102.87 in early trading after touching a seven-month low of 102.15 on Monday.
Persons: Jamie Cox, James Athey, undervaluation Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Harris Financial, Traders, Bank of Japan, Marlborough Investment Management Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, recessionary, Japan, Switzerland, Tokyo
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Jobs shock hits stocksU.S. stocks plummeted on Friday after a weaker-than-expected jobs report added to fears of a recession. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.43% and is now in correction territory, having declined more than 10% from its recent high. Asian stocks plungeAsian stocks continued to sell-off on Monday, with the Japanese market confirming a bear market. The stocks had to pass several criteria, including receiving five or more earnings upgrades in the past three months.
Persons: Topix, Taiwan's Taiex, Warren Buffett Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Nikkei, CSI, Berkshire Hathaway's, Apple . Berkshire, Exxon, Chevron, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, China, Apple ., Berkshire, Guyana, U.S, San Ramon , California, Houston , Texas
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.43% and is now in correction territory, having declined more than 10% from its recent high. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021 when the global economy was still reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic. The stocks had to pass several criteria, including receiving five or more earnings upgrades in the past three months.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Berkshire Hathaway's, Apple . Berkshire, Exxon, Chevron, CNBC Pro Locations: New York City, Apple ., Berkshire, Guyana, U.S, San Ramon , California, Houston , Texas
(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Monday's Wall Street chatter as global markets sell off. — Lisa Kailai Han 7:02 a.m.: How long sell-offs typically last Bad news: The current market sell-off may have further to go. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:09 a.m.: Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus: Best to not 'jump to conclusions' Investors need to have a cool head as global markets sell off, according to Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus. — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Global markets in an 'aggressive risk-unwind', Vital Knowledge says Fears of a U.S. recession are pressuring global markets, leading investors around the world to sell some of this year's top winners, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. "Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard," he wrote in a note Monday.
Persons: Wharton's Siegel, Jeremy Siegel, CNBC's, Siegel, hasn't, it's, … They're, , Lisa Kailai Han, Tom Lee, Lee, Duncan Toms, Toms, Fred Imbert, Victoria Greene, Greene, It's, Nimrit Kang, — Lisa Kailai Han, Dan Ives, Gene Goldman, Gennadiy Goldberg, Ives, Goldman, Goldberg, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Evercore, Ed Hyman, Hyman, Adam Crisafulli, Crisafulli Organizations: CNBC, Stock, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wharton, Federal Reserve, Fundstrat Global, HSBC, G Squared, Wealth, NorthStar Asset Management, Street, Wedbush, TD Securities, Federal, NASDAQ, U.S, Fed, Global Locations: U.S, Europe, Japan, China
FedWatch Founder Ben Emons talks the Japanese Yen carry trade
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFedWatch Founder Ben Emons talks the Japanese Yen carry tradeBen Emons, Fedwatch Advisors, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the Yen carry trade and how pressure on the U.S. economy impacted the Japanese markets.
Persons: Ben Emons Organizations: Fedwatch Advisors Locations: U.S
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
Treasury yields tumble as recession concerns take hold
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over eight basis points to 3.7099%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.7315% after falling by around 14 basis points. U.S. Treasurys slid on Monday as fears about a recession grew after a series of key economic data was released last week. The data suggested an easing of the labor market, which prompted concerns about a recession. That came after the Fed earlier in the week left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a September rate cut.
Persons: Treasurys, July's nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Dow, Fed, PMI
Why the stock market is freaking out again
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
The Dow tumbled more than 1,000 points at the open, and the broader market plunged 3% Monday. The Nasdaq, full of risky tech stocks, dropped 3.7%. Although that’s not in and of itself an unhealthy unemployment rate, its sudden march higher is alarming: Last year, the unemployment rate was at its lowest level since the moon landing. Traders are beginning to unwind big trades on Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet and other tech stocks that had been surging since the beginning of last year. Monday’s rout, if it ends at current levels, wouldn’t even crack the top 100 worst days in market history.
Persons: Dow, that’s, Goldman Sachs, That’s, Jeremy Siegel, , , Siegel, Stocks, it’ll, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: CNN, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Citigroup, JPMorgan, CNBC, Traders, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Berkshire Locations: Wall
Safe-haven gold firms on U.S. recession fears, rate-cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Two Argor-Heraeus SA 250 gram gold bars at Solar Capital Gold Zrt. Gold prices drifted higher on Monday, aided by worries that the United States could be headed for a recession and rising bets that the Federal Reserve will likely need to start cutting interest rates aggressively. Spot gold rose 0.14% to $2,446.83 per ounce, as of 0519 GMT, after falling 1% earlier in the session. "Gold is picking up safe-haven flows, with financial markets in a risk-averse mindset to start the week," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. Share markets tumbled and bonds rallied in Asia as U.S. recession fears sent investors rushing from risk assets.
Persons: Tim Waterer, Thomas Barkin Organizations: Heraeus, Solar, Federal Reserve, KCM, Richmond Fed, P Global, Pentagon Locations: Budapest, Hungary, United States, Asia, U.S, Iran
Last week, 30-year mortgage rates averaged 6.28%, and they're even lower today, according to Zillow data. What does this mean for mortgage rates? See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. As inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
AdvertisementSt. Louis FedDespite the Sahm Rule's impressive history, it is sometimes criticized because it fails to account for rising labor participation, which can raise the unemployment rate. In addition to downcast labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction territory this week, signaling that US manufacturing continues to slow. The market's direction also depends on how investors interpret interest rate cuts alongside future data. Fed funds rate futures markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementHartnett and his team analyzed Fed rate-cutting cycles and identified three different types of rate cuts — cuts into a soft landing, cuts into a hard landing, and panic cuts, which are due to a credit event or some sort of Wall Street crisis.
Persons: , Claudia Sahm —, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler, Tom Essaye, Jack McIntyre, Lara Castleton, Janus Henderson, Michael Kantrowitz, we've, Kantrowitz, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, Brandywine Global, ISM, Nasdaq, Fed, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Bank of America, Fund
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