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☆ Australia Plots Biggest Shake-Up of Central Bank in Decades
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( James Glynn | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

An independent review of the Reserve Bank of Australia concluded it was ill-equipped to meet current challenges. Photo: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg NewsSYDNEY—Australia said it would make broad changes to how its central bank operates, including who gets to decide interest rates, amid criticism from some lawmakers and economists that officials took too long to tighten policy in response to accelerating inflation. The biggest change will see the Reserve Bank of Australia adopt a monetary policy committee structure that has parallels to the setup of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said RBA policy makers would now gather to set interest rates eight times a year, compared with the current 11 meetings.

REUTERS/Chris WattieOTTAWA, April 19 (Reuters) - About 155,000 federal workers in Canada walked off the job on Wednesday after failing to reach a deal for higher wages and work-from-home guarantees, a strike that affects a range of public services from tax returns to passport renewals. The Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) union and the federal government said negotiations are ongoing, and Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stressed the urgency of resolving the dispute. The contract negotiations cover two main groups of employees: 120,000 workers under the Treasury Board and more than 35,000 revenue agency workers. Tax agency workers want a pay bump of 22.5% over three years, while the Treasury Board workers are seeking a 13.5% pay rise over three years. "There's obviously still the concern that this contract could set a precedent for other public sector union negotiations," he said.

☆ Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .

☆ Bank of Canada discussed raising rates at latest policy meeting -governor
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 14 (Reuters) - The governing council of the Bank of Canada discussed raising interest rates at its policy meeting earlier this week before deciding to leave them on hold, the central bank's governor, Tiff Macklem, said on Friday. Asked whether any council members were in favor of hiking rates at the meeting, Macklem said: "When I say that we've discussed whether we've done enough, that does imply that one of the things we discussed is whether we need to raise rates." On Wednesday, the Canadian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.50%, as expected, but struck a hawkish tone, playing down market expectations for a rate cut this year as the risk of a recession diminished. Macklem reiterated on Friday that interest rates may need to stay "higher for longer" to get inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. The central bank estimates the neutral interest rate -- one that neither stimulates nor constrains the economy -- to be a range between 2% and 3%.

April 13 (Reuters) - The banking stress in the United States and Europe has had a limited impact on Canada's financial system so far, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said on Thursday, adding though that there was a need to actively monitor risks to the system. "You're seeing a little bit of spillover to Canada, but honestly, it's really been quite muted," Macklem said when asked about how the country's financial system had been affected. Macklem spoke at the International Monetary Fund in Washington where he is attending an annual meeting. The failures of U.S. lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, followed by Credit Suisse's rescue, are prompting central bankers to closely monitor the potential for banking stress to trigger a credit crunch. On Wednesday the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its key overnight rate steady at 4.50%.

☆ L&G's fund arm to back climate votes at U.S., Canadian banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Simon Jessop | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LGIM, insurer Legal & General's (LGEN.L) fund arm, which manages more than $1.5 trillion, said it was going public ahead of the banks' meetings as part of an escalation strategy after backing several climate votes last year. "Accordingly, we believe our support of many of these resolutions – depending always on the specifics of their drafting language and advisory or binding nature – is warranted." It would also back votes calling for a report on how the bank is aligning its financing activities with its 2030 targets at Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO), Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley. "We believe detailed information on how a company intends to achieve the 2030 targets they have set... can further focus the board's attention on the steps and timeframe involved and provides assurance to stakeholders," LGIM said. ($1 = 0.7993 pounds)Reporting by Simon Jessop Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Marketmind: Dollar skids, China revs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar's DXY index - the Swiss franc hit its strongest level in more than two years. Taking in all the information, futures markets still show a near 75% chance of another quarter point rate rise to the 5.0-5.25% range in May, but more than 60 basis points of cuts from there to yearend. Two-year Treasury yields were stuck at 4%, with producer price inflation and weekly jobless up next on Thursday's data calendar. European markets were further pepped by reports the European Central Bank was minded to downsize its rate hikes to a quarter point in May after six successive half point moves. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Dollar, stocks slip after Fed minutes spur recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Fed staff assessing the potential fallout of banking stress projected a "mild recession" later this year. But the minutes showed policymakers ultimately agreed to higher interest rates as data at the time showed few signs of inflation pressures abating. Money markets initially trimmed expectations for a Fed rate hike in May, pricing in a 65.2% chance of a 25-basis-point move, CME Group's FedWatch Tool showed. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) closed down 0.08%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.13%. The dollar fell with an index measuring the U.S. currency against six peers down 0.558%.

☆ Bank of Canada says rates may have to remain restrictive for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

OTTAWA, April 12 (Reuters) - Interest rates in Canada may have to stay restrictive for longer to ensure inflation declines to the Bank of Canada's 2% target, Governor Tiff Macklem said on Wednesday. Macklem, speaking after the bank announced that it was holding its key rate at 4.50%, said the central bank's governing council had discussed whether rates had been raised enough. Macklem said that while the bank was encouraged inflation was dropping, the job of monetary policy was not done. "We considered the likelihood that the policy rate may need to remain restrictive for longer to return inflation to the 2% target," he said. (Reporting by David Ljunggren, editing by Steve Scherer)((Reuters Ottawa bureau, david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/MACKLEMOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Canada seen holding on rates amid cooling inflation, financial turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. Last month the Bank of Canada became the world's first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign, leaving its benchmark rate at 4.50%. However, bank failures in the United States and Europe have put central bankers on guard against a widespread credit crunch. All 33 economists polled by Reuters agree that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will hold its key overnight rate steady. "Hiking in this environment would put markets on high alert," said Jay Zhao-Murray, FX Market Analyst at Monex Canada, in a note.

☆ Morning Bid: Stocks defy negativity in CPI vigil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve's interest rate stance hinges on incoming data such as Wednesday's consumer price report, but fears of recession remain just that. And so investors return to scrutinising the Fed to see if the central bank forces the recession by tightening ever further. With Fed policy meeting minutes due later in the day, the runes of what must have been a tense gathering of officials in the middle of the regional banking shock will be eyed closely. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reckoned recession was still a risk but inflation wouldn't get back close to the 2% target until next year. Hong Kong stocks (.HSI) underperformed overnight - with geopolitical tensions high surrounding Taiwan and Chinese military operations around the island.

☆ Morning Bid: Nervy markets wait on inflation report, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Investors will parse through the commentary to better understand the Fed's thinking about the turmoil in the banking sector, which had stoked expectations that the Fed may need to cut rates. But economic data along with rhetoric from Fed speakers have led markets to price in a two-thirds chance of a 25bp hike in May and standing pat thereafter, according to CME FedWatch tool. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis and 5.6% year-over-year in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Switzerland's upper house had approved the rescue earlier on Tuesday, meaning the two chambers of the legislative body will vote again on Wednesday. Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsKey developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:Economic events: Inflation reports from Serbia, Hungary; Bank of Canada rate decision; U.S. inflation report; Fed minutesSpeakers: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB's Luis De GuindosReporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Edmund KlamannOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Top Bank of Canada officials speak after rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MACKLEM ON POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE QUARTERS FOR GROWTH"We're forecasting small positives. When you're forecasting small positives you can't rule out that there's going to be a couple quarters of small negatives. MACKLEM ON NEEDING A PERIOD OF WEAK GROWTH"I would remind you that we actually need a period of weak growth. We're expecting pretty weak growth for the rest of the year, something a little less than 1%." MACKLEM ON NOT FORECASTING A MAJOR CONTRACTION"We're not forecasting a major contraction.

☆ Bank of Canada sees stronger 2023 growth, indicates recession risk has shrunk
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

OTTAWA, April 12 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday increased its 2023 growth forecast to 1.4%, up from the 1.0% it predicted in January, and indicated it saw less risk of a recession this year. The bank said annualised growth would hit 2.3% in the first quarter before averaging less than 1.0% for the rest of 2023. The bank dropped language saying the chances of a couple of quarters with slightly negative growth were the roughly the same as a couple of quarters with slightly positive growth. The bank cut the 2024 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.8% in January and said the economy would expand by 2.5% in 2025. (Reporting by Steve Scherer and David Ljunggren)((Reuters Ottawa bureau; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/FORECASTSOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] Governor of the Bank of Canada Tiff Macklem walks outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada June 22, 2020. The Bank of Canada (BoC) last month became the world's first major central bank to pause its tightening campaign. All 33 economists polled by Reuters agreed that the bank would hold its key overnight rate steady. At the same time, the BoC raised its growth forecast for this year to 1.4% from 1.0% in January. The bank cut its 2024 growth forecast to 1.3% from 1.8% in January, and said the economy would expand by 2.5% in 2025.

☆ World stocks hope for Fed pause, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gold climbed back up above the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar came off Monday's peak, while oil prices rose despite Chinese inflation data pointing to persistently weak demand. Investors are eagerly awaiting U.S. consumer prices data on Wednesday and producer prices on Thursday. The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The dollar index fell 0.244%, with the euro up 0.41% to $1.0904 and the yen weakening 0.12% at 133.78 per dollar.

The consumer price index is expected to show core inflation rose 0.4% on a monthly basis (USCPF=ECI) and 5.6% year-over-year (USCPFY=ECI) in March. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.5 basis points to 4.043%. "We're just beginning to feel the pain of these much higher interest rates. The dollar fell after a strong U.S. jobs report for March showed a resilient labor market, adding to expectations of another Fed rate hike. The 10-year JGB yield fell to as low as 0.445%, its lowest since April 4, after hovering at 0.465% in the previous session.

☆ World stocks cling to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European stocks added 0.5% (.STOXX), U.S. equity futures pointed to a positive Wall Street open , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Markets price in a roughly 70% chance of a May hike, having last week priced such a move as a coin toss. Traders still price in rate cuts by year-end as the economic growth outlook weakens, exacerbated by banking turmoil. U.S. March inflation data on Wednesday could provide the next steer for markets on the rate outlook. U.S. Treasury yields edged down on Tuesday, however, , with rate sensitive two-year yields 4 bps lower at 3.96%.

☆ World stocks hold on to upbeat mood, dollar stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

European stock markets opened broadly firmer (.STOXX), U.S. stock futures pointed to a positive open for Wall Street shares , and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei rallied over 1% (.N225). Friday's non-farm payrolls suggested labour markets remain resilient, boosting expectations for a 25 basis point (bps) U.S. rate increase in May. NEW BOJ CHIEFIn Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.57%, while MSCI's world stock index was up 0.3% (.MIWD00000PUS). U.S. Treasury yields edged down in European trade , with rate sensitive two-year yields last down 3 bps at 3.96%. Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 0.74%, to $84.81 a barrel, while U.S. WTI futures gained 68 cents, or 0.83%, to $80.41 a barrel.

TORONTO, April 10 (Reuters) - Glencore Plc (GLEN.L) Chief Executive Gary Nagle plans to meet with some of Teck Resources Ltd's (TECKb.TO) Canadian shareholders in Toronto this Thursday to personally lobby them for support of Glencore's proposed takeover of the copper and zinc miner, according to a source who was invited. Royal Bank of Canada's (RY.TO) RBC Capital Markets will host the Toronto lunch meeting, according to Jonathan Case of CI Global Asset Management, a Teck shareholder who was invited. RBC has been one of Glencore's bankers in the past. Teck's executives on Monday reinforced their rejection of Glencore's unsolicited $22.5 billion takeover offer. Reporting by Divya Rajagopal in Toronto; Editing by Ernest Scheyder and Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ We're negative on the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're negative on the Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar, strategist saysGareth Berry of Macquarie Group says it expects the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to be the first two developed market central banks to cut interest rates before year-end, "before the rest of the pack."

☆ Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Last month, the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to pause its rate-hiking campaign, after lifting its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. This will carry through to higher economic growth." That is welcome news for most, but not for Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, as it could call into question his decision to announce a conditional rate pause in January. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth." Canada's economy faces headwinds from higher borrowing costs and financial stability concerns, while inflation has cooled more than in the United States, said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

BENGALURU, April 6(Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will keep its key interest rate steady at 4.50% through 2023, according to most economists polled by Reuters, with an even smaller minority now expecting an interest rate cut by year-end than a poll taken a month ago. In March, the BoC was the first major central bank to stop its aggressive hiking cycle and is on what it calls a conditional pause. So all 33 economists polled March 31-April 6 said it will hold its overnight rate at 4.50% on April 12. A majority of forecasters, 23 of 31, said the rate would remain unchanged for the rest of 2023. Only seven expected at least one 25-basis-point rate cut by end-year, down from 13 in a survey taken about a month ago.

The economy gained a net 34,700 jobs, almost entirely in the private sector, and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%, Statistics Canada reported. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast that a net 12,000 jobs would be gained in March and the unemployment rate would edge up to 5.1%. Since December, the jobless rate has stayed just a notch above the record low of 4.9% observed in mid-2022. Thursday's jobs figures as well as robust GDP data released last week are likely to complicate the central bank's plans to avoid further rate moves. There were 18,800 full-time jobs added in the month, and 15,900 part-time jobs.

☆ Unstable markets drag Canadian M&A, debt issuance to four-year low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Maiya Keidan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The collapse of regional banks Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the U.S. tightened credit market making funding difficult for deals. As the banking crisis abate and many global central banks move to the sidelines to assess the impact of rapid interest rates hikes, bankers are, however, betting that appetite for dealmaking would return. Canadian M&A volumes totalled $34.7 billion in the first quarter, down 52.3% from a year ago, with dealmaking off to the worst start since the same period in 2020. Some market participants noted the second quarter is already off to a stronger start, with the mining sector gathering momentum. Abeed Ramji, head of Canadian Debt Capital Markets at TD, said the lack of issuance from banks impacted the corporate debt market, adding that global markets had become more expensive for financing.

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