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This is relevant to Apple as we estimate that Google pays Apple ~$20bn for being the default search engine across iOS devices." Goldman Sachs reiterates Microsoft as buy Goldman says it's staying bullish heading into Microsoft earnings next week. Deutsche Bank reiterates Disney as buy Deutsche Bank says it sees an "attractive setup" heading into earnings in early May. HSBC upgrades Nvidia to buy from reduce HSBC said in its double upgrade of Nvidia that it's "all about AI." Deutsche Bank reiterates Amazon as buy Deutsche says it's standing by its buy rating on the e-commerce giant ahead of earnings later this month.
Wells Fargo is less optimistic on the future performance of oil refinery stocks Analyst Roger Read downgraded both Valero Energy and Marathon Petroleum to equal weight from overweight. "We raise the caution flag on the refining sector," he said in a note to clients Tuesday. Jet inventory, meanwhile, is "well above" where it was a year ago but still below the average levels seen historically. Demand has also recovered compared with the long-term average but still sits below levels seen before the pandemic. MPC VLO 5Y mountain Valero and Marathon — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 18 (Reuters) - There is an increasing disconnect between the forecasts for strong global oil demand growth this year, led by Asia, and the reality of weakening margins for refined fuels. The profit from turning a barrel of Dubai crude into refined products at a typical Singapore refinery dropped to $2.53 a barrel on Monday. The falling margins on refined fuels may result in refiners in Asia processing less, especially as crude costs continue to rise. Despite the current problems facing refiners, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are sticking to bullish forecasts for crude demand growth in 2023. OPEC is also maintaining a bullish view for 2023 oil demand growth, keeping its forecast for an increase of 2.32 million bpd in its latest monthly report.
Oil steady as market awaits Chinese GDP data
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Companies Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc FollowSINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Monday as investors eyed Chinese economic data for signs of demand recovery in the world's second-largest oil consumer. "Crude prices have defaulted to tracking the daily mood in the broader financial markets" as fears over possible recession continue to cloud the horizon, she added. Further tightening supplies, oil exports from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan remain at a standstill almost three weeks after an arbitration case ruled Ankara owed Baghdad compensation for unauthorised exports. Rising costs for Middle Eastern crude supplies, which meet more than half of Asia's demand, are already squeezing refiners' margins, prompting them to secure supplies from other regions. The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Oil steady as market awaits China GDP data
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Monday as investors eyed Chinese economic data for signs of demand recovery in the world's second-largest oil consumer. Further tightening supplies, oil exports from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan remain at a standstill almost three weeks after an arbitration case ruled Ankara owed Baghdad compensation for unauthorised exports. "Weaker refinery margins remain a feature, with the weakness predominantly driven by middle distillates. Stronger crude prices will not be helping margins for refiners either," ING analysts said in a note. The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Monday, supported by OPEC+'s plans to cut more output, while investors eyed Chinese economic data for signs of a demand recovery by the world's No. However, the IEA warned in its monthly report that the output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers risk exacerbating an oil supply deficit expected in the second half of the year and could hurt consumers and a global economic recovery. Rising costs for Middle East crude supplies, which meet more than half of Asia's demand, are already squeezing refiners' margins, prompting them to secure supplies from other regions. The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. "(That) means some of the supportive tailwinds for crude oil demand from expectations of Fed rate cuts are starting to fade," he added.
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up on Monday, supported by OPEC+'s plans to cut more output, while investors eyed Chinese economic data for signs of a demand recovery by the world's No. However, the IEA warned in its monthly report that the output cuts announced by OPEC+ producers risk exacerbating an oil supply deficit expected in the second half of the year and could hurt consumers and a global economic recovery. Rising costs for Middle East crude supplies, which meet more than half of Asia's demand, are already squeezing refiners' margins, prompting them to secure supplies from other regions. The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. "(That) means some of the supportive tailwinds for crude oil demand from expectations of Fed rate cuts are starting to fade," he added.
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - European Union and G7 restrictions on Russian oil exports led to a global shift in oil flows, with Asian refiners soaking up discounted Russian crude, in part explaining the recent OPEC+ decision to curtail output further, the West's energy watchdog said on Friday. "The rapid upheaval in global crude trade flows, may in part explain the recent decision by OPEC+ to cut production," the IEA said. Unlike Asian refiners, which benefited from heavy discounts on Russian crude, European refiners have not been given any price incentive to process Middle East crudes, the IEA said. Bottlenecks and logistical constraints which prevent some European refiners from handling very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and a rise in Middle East crude differentials to the region partly explain why Europeans shunned Middle Eastern medium sour. Higher energy costs for reducing sulphur content in crude to produce cleaner fuels, a process known as hydrotreating, was another reason, the IEA said.
Administration officials believe the U.S., the world's largest oil consumer and global economy have entered a more predictable, less volatile phase. This year, gasoline prices have stabilized at lower levels, U.S. oil production is approaching record highs and the job market, while still strong, is cooling down along with inflation, administration officials say. Oil prices slipped on Thursday as the prospect of a possible recession in the US offset concerns of tight supply. Slowing economy or not, the OPEC move could still complicate Biden's efforts to tame nagging inflation and dampen gasoline prices at home, according to multiple interviews with U.S. officials and analysts. Discussions with refiners about expanding capacity or limiting fuel exports have dried up since last summer, oil executives told Reuters.
Administration officials believe the U.S. and global economy has now entered a more predictable, less volatile phase. This year, gasoline prices have stabilized at lower levels, U.S. oil production is approaching record highs and the job market, while still strong, is cooling down along with inflation, administration officials say. The OPEC move could complicate Biden's efforts to tame nagging inflation and dampen gasoline prices at home, according to multiple interviews with U.S. officials and analysts. The recent U.S. banking crisis has added another layer of uncertainty to global and U.S. forecasts as well, forecasters warn. Discussions with refiners about expanding capacity or limiting fuel exports have dried up since last summer, oil executives told Reuters.
Crude imports in March totalled 52.3 million tonnes, or 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from the General Administration of Customs. Analysts pointed to a sharp increase in refined fuel product exports as a key reason behind the jump in crude imports. Total crude imports for the first quarter stood at 136.6 million tonnes, a 6.7% increase over 127.9 million tonnes in the same period last year. China imported 8.9 million tonnes of natural gas in March, up 11.2% from 8.0 million tonnes a year ago. Total natural gas imports for the first quarter stood at 26.7 million tonnes, down 3.6% on last year.
For the first quarter, China's refined product exports were up 59.8% to 18.2 million tonnes, equivalent to about 1.62 million bpd. For the first quarter in 2022, refined fuel exports were 1.01 million bpd, meaning they have risen by 610,000 bpd in the same period this year. IMPACT OF FUEL EXPORTSThere are also several other questions for the market to ponder, such as do strong Chinese refined fuel exports, while increasing China's crude imports, actually result in lower demand elsewhere as China's products displace supplies from other exporters? It's likely that China's refined product exports will remain elevated in April as refiners use up their quotas and Beijing encourages exports as part of efforts to boost economic activity. Overall, the current picture in China is one of strong crude imports and even stronger refined product exports.
Morgan Stanley's Andrew Slimmon expects an economic slowdown in the U.S. will happen later than many have predicted. And I think that's when we will hit a slowdown and I suspect it's coming later than what many people have been predicting," said the senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Here's what investors can buy and avoid in the face of that uncertainty, according to Slimmon. Be wary of 'very large' stocks He said he would be particularly cautious on "very large" stocks right now, referring to FAANG — Facebook (now Meta ), Amazon , Apple , Netflix and Google (now Alphabet ). "It's not a cheap stock, but to me, that's a defensive stock that you want to own in this environment as well."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKpler: Oil could push higher from here, but the impact of interest rate hikes could weigh on prices in the back half of the yearMatt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler, expects strength to come through in oil prices in the coming months, predicated on robust demand from refiners as we gear up for the summer driving season.
SINGAPORE, April 10 (Reuters) - Saudi Aramco has told at least four customers in North Asia they will receive full contract volumes of crude oil in May, several sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday. People now wonder how the additional voluntary cut would reflect in the actual supply, or if it is merely a measure to shore up oil prices, a source at an Asian refiner said. Oil demand is expected to be weak as several refiners in Asia, such as Sinopec, S-Oil, Fuji Oil and Idemitsu, have planned maintenance in May. Crude benchmarks jumped 6% last week after the major oil producers jolted market with the additional output reduction. It also increased the prices of other oil grades to Asian clients amid expectations of tighter market supply.
India remains top destination for Russian Urals oil in April
  + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
MOSCOW, April 10 (Reuters) - India remains the main destination for Russia's seaborne Urals oil, with about 70% of such exports heading to the country, Reuters monitoring and data from two industry sources showed on Monday. Last month Russia's Rosneft and Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) announced a supply deal for up to 1.5 million tonnes of Russian oil (11 million barrels) per month from April 1. Urals oil shipments to China, meanwhile, have not increased significantly in April. "China is buying Urals, but not as actively as was expected," a trade source involved in Russian oil trading said. Russia's Gazpromneft shipped 140,000 tonnes of Urals from Novorossiisk to Myanmar in April, having supplied it for the first time in March.
Iraq, OPEC's second largest oil producer, exports the bulk of its oil through its southern Gulf port of Basra. An Iraqi oil ministry official with knowledge of the meeting said the aim was to reassure the companies that their deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) were secure. Baghdad and the KRG signed a temporary agreement on Tuesday to restart northern oil exports as part of efforts to end decades of political and economic disputes. Petraco confirmed its presence at talks in Baghdad and said it was currently awaiting further developments. Further complicating the picture, Kurdistan has borrowed billions of dollars from trading houses and oil producers, including to build a new pipeline to Turkey, pledging to repay debts from future oil exports.
Raises price target to $52 from $47. Charles Schwab (SCHW) price target slashed to $65 from $89 at Keefe Bruyette. Analyst keeps an outperform rating on shares, acknowledging risks to near-term earnings outlook, but says the sell-off is now overdone. Evercore ISI lowers price target to $535 from $545, but keeps outperform rating. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 6 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of crude oil stayed at relatively robust levels in March, as strong inflows to the top-importing region's heavyweights China and India offset weaker demand among some others buyers. Total March crude imports were estimated by Refinitiv Oil Research at 116.73 million tonnes, equivalent to 27.60 million barrels per day (bpd). This was up almost 4% from February's 112.32 million tonnes, but down 6.1% on a daily basis from February's 29.4 million bpd, and also below January's 29.13 million bpd. However, the first three months of 2023 were stronger than every month in 2022, except for November when Asia's crude imports were 29.10 million bpd. Saudi Arabia reclaimed its place as China's top supplier with 8.08 million tonnes, or a share of 16.4%, edging out Russia at 7.95 million tonnes, or a share of 16.1%.
Europe typically imported an average of 154,000 barrels per day (bpd) of diesel and jet fuel from India before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That increased to 200,000 bpd after the European Union banned Russian oil products imports from Feb. 5, Kpler data showed. OIL PRODUCTSAs Europe's ban kept Russian products out, India's diesel exports to the continent rose 12-16% to 150,000-167,000 bpd in the last fiscal year, the Kpler and Vortexa data showed. The key European buyers of Indian diesel are France, Turkey, Belgium and the Netherlands, the Kpler data showed. Indian oil products exportsBesides increasing exports to Europe, India has also boosted vacuum gas oil (VGO) shipments to the U.S.
Japan aims to boost hydrogen supply to 12 million T by 2040
  + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
TOKYO, April 4 (Reuters) - Japan is to revise its hydrogen strategy by the end of May with an ambitious target to boost annual supply to 12 million tonnes by 2040, the industry ministry said on Tuesday, as competition increases in the global market for the fuel. Citing massive hydrogen investment by the United States and Europe, Kishida said Japan will speed up the roll out of supply chains in cooperation with Australia, the Middle East, and Asia. Japan's existing goal is to increase annual hydrogen supply to about 3 million tonnes in 2030 from 2 million tonnes now, which is mainly used by oil refiners, and to expand the figure to 20 million tonnes in 2050, according to the ministry. The fuel, together with ammonia, has a major role in helping Japan to meet its target of becoming carbon neutral by 2050. ($1 = 132.6500 yen)Reporting by Yuka Obayashi, Miho Uranaka and Yoshifumi Takemoto; editing by Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Within Europe, Goldman prefers companies in value sectors that pay dividends , as well as select defensive and growth stocks in the market. Emerging markets Several Wall Street analysts are putting their money on emerging markets, with most bullish on China, the world's second-largest economy. While the bank expects just 1% earnings growth for emerging market stocks, it said the sector's valuation looks attractive at a 23% discount to global peers. Philip Blancato, CEO at Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, is also bullish on emerging markets. He added that the case for adding to emerging market allocations is growing, particularly given the "near guarantee" of a softer dollar in the short- to medium-term.
"Bank of Baroda is extremely cautious in settling payments for Russian oil bought (at levels) above the price cap," one of the sources said. After Western sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, Indian refiners have been gorging on discounted Russian oil. Russia has replaced Iraq as the top oil supplier to India in the last few months, data from trade sources showed. It was not clear if Axis Bank had also stopped settling trades for Russian oil sold above the price cap. India does not recognise the Western price cap on Russian oil, a senior oil ministry source said last month.
This brings the total pledged output cuts by the group to around 3.66 million bpd, around 3.7% of global demand, and these are expected to remain in place until the end of the year. Saudi Arabia, the world's leading oil exporter, said the additional reduction is precautionary and aimed at achieving stability in the global oil market. Contained within the decision to cut output is the tacit admission that the demand side of the crude equation may not be as bullish as had been forecast by virtually every major energy body and the analyst community. Most likely it would have been well below the $79.77 a barrel it ended at on March 31, which was the closing price before Sunday's shock move to further cut output. China has also been accumulating more oil than it is consuming, despite rising domestic demand and refinery processing rates.
REUTERS/Ramzi BoudinaHOUSTON/WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced over the weekend they would launch deep oil production cuts starting next month, a surprise move that sent oil prices surging. If refiners reduce capacity, the drain on stocks could lead to a sudden jump in retail fuel prices, he said. U.S. gasoline prices have climbed 11.6 cents a gallon from a month ago to $3.506, the AAA said on Monday. A 6% jump in oil prices would boost retail gasoline prices 10 cents a gallon, said Mark Finley, an expert in energy policy at Rice University's Baker Institute. OPEC's reason for cutting production - as a precautionary step - suggests it expects global oil demand to slow this year.
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