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LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Container freight volumes at the largest U.S. ports were down 3.8% in September compared with the same month a year earlier, confirming the slackening of merchandise trade and downturn in the business cycle. The ports of New York-New Jersey, Los Angeles, Long Beach, Savannah, Houston, Norfolk, Charleston, Seattle and Oakland account for the overwhelming majority of container ocean freight into and out of the United States. Chartbook: U.S. container tradeFreight is reflecting a significant slowdown in consumer spending on merchandise over the last 12-15 months as economies have re-opened after the pandemic and spending has rotated to travel and other services. As the global manufacturing sector contracts, freight volumes are likely to shrink further, which will eventually relieve some of the pressure on diesel fuel supplies. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ U.S. job growth seen smallest in nearly two years in October, unemployment rate up
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The labor market is basically OK, but it does seem to be slowing," said Guy Berger, principal economist at LinkedInin San Francisco. "The Fed is going to try to thread the needle where they slow down the labor market enough to put downward pressure on wages and inflation, without causing a recession." Still, the labor market remains tight, with 1.9 job openings per unemployed person at the end of September. Stripping out any distortions from the weather and calendar quirk, wage growth is cooling. "We believe we've seen wage growth peak," said Michelle Green, principal economist at Prevedere in Columbus, Ohio.

☆ U.S. job growth beats expectations in October, but cracks emerging
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The report to us looks like payroll jobs growth will falter in coming months as companies batten down the hatches as the Fed continues to take away the economy's punch." The survey of establishments showed nonfarm payrolls increased 261,000 last month. Still, the labor market remains tight, with 1.9 job openings per unemployed person at the end of September. The increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% September reflected a 328,000 decline in household employment. "The hope is that the labor market is merely returning to a more normal pace, rather than sitting dead in the water."

☆ U.S. service sector slows in October; price pressures build up - ISM survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The ISM's measure of new orders received by services businesses fell to 56.5 from 60.6 in September. The ISM survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries increased to 56.2 last month from 53.9 in September. Its services industry employment gauge dropped to 49.1 from 53.0 in September. Services businesses in the ISM survey in September reported hiring remained a challenge and qualified workers were scarce.

☆ U.S. labor market unwavering despite stiff interest rates hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But annual revisions to the data showed productivity much stronger in 2020 and 2021 than previously reported. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - increased at a 3.5% rate after accelerating at a pace of 8.9% in the second quarter. Unit labor costs advanced at a 6.1% rate from a year ago. Growth in unit labor costs was much slower than previously estimated in 2020 and 2021. Labor costs"Both productivity growth and labor cost growth may be understated," said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)’s authoritative Business Cycle Dating Committee itself uses a two-part classification – “expansion” and “contraction”. Growth in business activity tends to accelerate and decelerate; outright declines in the level of activity are relatively rare. UNDECLARED RECESSIONSThe NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee formally declared only six recessions between 1980 and the end of 2020. They were periods of little or no growth in an otherwise uninterrupted business cycle expansion and tend to be forgotten. Mid-cycle slowdowns also reset the economy by easing capacity constraints and relieving upward pressure on prices and wages.

☆ U.S. job openings jump in September; raw material prices fall in October
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With roughly 1.9 job openings for every unemployed worker at the end of September, wage growth could remain elevated. "It is a head scratcher where you have to wonder whether 10 million job openings can stop a recession from coming." Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased 437,000 to 10.7 million on the last day of September, the Labor Department said in its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Data for August was revised higher to show 10.3 million job openings instead of 10.1 million as previously reported. The job openings rate increased to 6.5% from 6.3% in August.

☆ U.S. manufacturing activity slowest in nearly 2-1/2 years in October -ISM
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 last month from 50.9 in September, both the lowest readings since May 2020. A reading above 50 signals expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. A measure of prices paid by manufacturers dropped to 46.6, the lowest reading since May 2020, from 51.7 in September. The ISM survey's measure of factory employment also ticked up to 50.0 last month after dropping to 48.7 in September. The index has been a poor predictor of manufacturing payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report, next out this Friday.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Tuesday that its manufacturing PMI fell to 50.2 in October from 50.9 in September. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI stood at 49.2 in October, up from 48.1 in September. The private sector survey was in line with an official PMI released on Monday that showed China's factory activity unexpectedly fell in October. Japan's au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.7 in October from September's 50.8 final, marking the weakest growth since January last year. India was an outlier with factory activity expanding at a stronger pace in October as demand remained solid.

☆ Future rise after strong month on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.58%, S&P 0.82%, Nasdaq 1.05%Nov 1 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday after a strong October on Wall Street, as investors clung to hopes that the Federal Reserve will signal a slower pace of future interest rate hikes as economic growth slows. But traders are hoping that the Fed could soon pause its rate hikes or at least shift to a less aggressive stance. ET, Dow e-minis were up 190 points, or 0.58%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 32 points, or 0.82%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 119.75 points, or 1.05%. ET, is expected to show manufacturing PMI fell to 50 last month after declining to 50.9 in September. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ From 'labor hoarding' to layoffs: Get ready for a brutal U-turn in the job market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( George Pearkes | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

This desire for positivity may explain the popularity of a hot, new theory about the job market: labor hoarding. A bet on the futureThe idea of labor hoarding is basically an assumption about the bet that companies are making on the future of the labor market and customer demand. Another helpful tool to see how businesses are adapting to the labor market is the Bureau of Labor Statistics' quarterly Business Employment Dynamics report. Instead, we're seeing a more-balanced response consistent with a tight labor market that is losing some steam. So when the real pain starts, there's a good chance the US will quickly shift from labor hoarding to layoffs.

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel supplies are becoming critically low with shortages and price spikes likely to occur in the next six months unless and until the economy and fuel consumption slow. The deficit has been worsening steadily since the start of the year when stocks were 15 million barrels (-11% or -1.18 standard deviations) below the ten-year average. Chartbook: U.S. distillate fuel oil inventoriesReflecting the intensifying fuel shortage, futures prices for ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) delivered in New York Harbor in December are trading at a premium of $60 per barrel over Brent. If confirmed that would take some of the pressure of distillate inventories. Rebalancing diesel supply will likely require a further rise in interest rates and tighter financial conditions in the United States and other major economies to reduce fuel consumption to more sustainable levels.

☆ U.S. business activity weakens again in October -S&P Global survey
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

S&P Global said on Monday its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, fell to 47.3 this month from a final reading of 49.5 in September. "The decline was led by a downward lurch in services activity, fueled by the rising cost of living and tightening financial conditions." But the S&P Global survey may exaggerate the slowdown. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI fell to 49.9 this month, its first contractionary reading since June 2020, from 52.0 in September. The survey's flash services sector PMI fell to 46.6 from 49.3 in September.

LONDON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Global freight volumes have begun to fall as overall consumer and business spending slows and the composition rotates from merchandise back to services after the pandemic. Chartbook: Global freight and manufacturing activityMANUFACTURING STALLSThe slowdown will gradually unblock supply chains and ease some of the intense upward pressure on merchandise prices that has occurred since mid-2020. The World Trade Organization forecasts merchandise trade will increase by just 1.0% in 2023 after rising 3.5% in 2022 (“Trade growth to slow sharply in 2023”, WTO, Oct. 5). The forecast growth in world merchandise trade volumes next year would be among the slowest rates in the last 40 years. The slowdown in industrial output and freight has already been underway for at least the last 3-6 months in most countries.

☆ Goldman Sachs: These 40 stocks have the most upside right now as the early October market rally unwinds
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-09 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

October is historically the most volatile month for stocks, so more market swings may be ahead. Goldman Sachs listed the 40 stocks with the highest upside, based on the firm's price targets. So far, October is living up to its reputation as the year's most volatile month for stocks. In an early October note, Goldman Sachs listed the 40 stocks that were the furthest below their analysts' price targets right now. Those targets imply that all of the stocks listed below have at least 50% upside as of September 30.

☆ Friday's jobs report could be a case where good news isn't really good
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesInvestors are closely watching the nonfarm payrolls report due out Friday, but not for the usual reasons. In normal times, strong job gains and rising wages would be considered a good thing. When they get bad news on the economy, that means the Fed is going to tighten less." In real terms, Swiber said that likely means no change until the economy is actually losing jobs. Next week's CPI reading is likely to be more consequential when it comes to any shift in Fed attitudes, she added.

☆ Stocks end Wednesday slightly lower following huge two-day surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-05 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks were mostly unchanged Wednesday, even as a fresh batch of economic data revealed continued strength in the job market and America’s services sector. That’s led to new worries that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate hikes, meant to curb inflation, will eventually lead to a recession. The Dow ended the day with a loss of a little more than 40 points, or 0.1%. The rise in oil gave a lift to energy stocks, helping to prop up the overall market. Chevron (CVX) was one of the top Dow stocks, rising about 1%.

☆ U.S. business activity remains subdued in September, S&P Global survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Mike BlakeWASHINGTON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity contracted for a third straight month in September, though the pace of decline slowed while improving global supply chains eased inflation pressures for companies. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe S&P Global survey, however, likely exaggerates the slowdown in economic activity. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI nudged up to 51.8 this month from 51.5 in August. With input price increases slowing, average operating expenses for manufacturers rose this month at the slowest pace since November 2020. The survey's flash services sector PMI rose to 49.2 from 43.7 in August.

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