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Gold set for 3rd weekly gain as cooler data cements Fed cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were set to mark a third straight weekly rise on Friday, after data showing cooling inflation cemented bets for a rate cut in the U.S., with traders looking forward to comments from Federal Reserve's Chair Powell later in the day. Spot gold rose 0.2% at $2,039.42 per ounce by 0427 GMT, after marking an over $60 rise in November — its second straight monthly rise. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "However, month-end flow may have also been a factor, and seasonality tends to favor gains for gold between November and December," City Index's Simpson added.
Persons: Powell, Matt Simpson, CME's, Index's Simpson, Hugo Pascal Organizations: Aurum, Traders, U.S Locations: U.S, InProved
While Powell and other officials say they’re not even thinking about cutting rates just yet, some investors expect cuts to begin around the middle of next year. With Treasury yields sliding in recent weeks, so have mortgage rates, and rate cuts next year would help that along. Inflation, spending and mortgagesConsumer spending and inflation both eased in October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. What Fed officials are sayingFed officials have broadly acknowledged that economic conditions are setting the stage for inflation to continue its descent. While some Fed officials have expressed optimism, others remain unconvinced that the Fed’s job is done.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, , Powell, they’re, Freddie Mac, Christopher Waller, John Williams, “ We’ve, Michelle Bowman, Organizations: DC CNN — Investors, Federal, Spelman College, Treasury, Fed, December’s Fed, Commerce Department, , Washington . New York Fed, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Atlanta, September’s, America, doldrums, Washington . New, Salt Lake City
The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo
China's factory activity contracted for a second straight month in November, while non-manufacturing activity hit yet another new low for the year, signaling that the world's second-largest economy is not yet out of the woods and may require more muscular policy support. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index unexpectedly fell slightly to 49.4 in November from 49.5 in October, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Thursday. China's official manufacturing PMI also came in below forecast last month. The official non-manufacturing managers' index slipped to 50.2 in November from 50.6 in October, according to the same NBS release. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity, while a reading below that level points to a contraction.
Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, PMI
A New Zealand dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this photo illustration taken on March 11, 2016. Consumer price growth in the 20 nations that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% against the dollar to $1.0910. The Japanese currency has firmed almost 3% against the dollar in November and is on course for its strongest month this year. Sterling was last at $1.2646, down 0.39% on the day, while the Australian dollar fell 0.1% to $0.6610.
Persons: David Gray, Matthew Landon, disinflation, Landon, ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta, Mohamad Al, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Toyoaki Nakamura, Sterling, It's, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill, Miral Fahmy, Susan Fenton Organizations: New Zealand, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Morgan Private Bank, ECB, ECB policymaker, Danske Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: States, Europe, U.S, London, Singapore
The Weakest U.S. Housing Report in 13 Years: Existing Home SalesOctober's existing home sales report details the current state of the all-important U.S. housing market and how Americans reacted to mortgage rates that have declined, but still remain much higher than they have been in more than a decade. WSJ's Dion Rabouin breaks it down.
Persons: WSJ's Dion Rabouin Organizations: Weakest, Housing
Tuberville said the US has "the weakest military that we've had in probably a year in my lifetime." NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRepublican Sen. Tommy Tuberville said in a recent interview that he believes the US currently has "the weakest military that we've had in probably a year in my lifetime." "We've got the weakest military that we've had in probably a year in my lifetime," he added.
Persons: Tuberville, we've, Biden, he's, , Republican Sen, Tommy Tuberville, Newsmax's Eric Bolling, We've, Joe Biden, Defense Austin, he'd, Chuck Schumer, Schumer, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Mike Lee, JD Vance, Mitch McConnell Organizations: Service, Republican, Defense, Democratic Locations: Sens
Washington, DC CNN —US home prices continued to rise in September, hitting a new record high and marking the eighth consecutive month of increases, according to data released Tuesday. Even as mortgage rates lingered above 7% in September, historically low inventory continued to push up the price of a home. Prices rose 0.7% in September from the month before, according to seasonally adjusted data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index. Compared to a year ago, the national composite index also rose, with prices up 3.9% from September 2022, the data shows. Higher prices and higher mortgage rates led to crushing affordability challenges for homebuyers in September, bringing existing home sales to 13-year lows.
Persons: , Craig Lazzara, Dow, Charlotte ,, Hannah Jones, Jones Organizations: DC CNN, Dow Jones, Las, Realtor.com, homebuyers Locations: Washington, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Charlotte , North Carolina, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Miami ; New York, Tampa , Florida, San Diego, New York, Las Vegas, Portland , Oregon, Northeast, Midwest
Take Five: Warming up this winter
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
1\BUCK UP, IT'S DECEMBERThe dollar is heading for its weakest monthly performance for a year, with a loss so far of 2.7%. On Thursday, China releases official manufacturing PMI data, which last month showed an unexpected contraction, killing momentum for an economic recovery. COP28 gets underway in Dubai and securing an agreement on how to tackle global warming and, crucially, how to pay for it looks as difficult as ever for the near 200 countries and institutions attending. Reuters Graphics5\THE ECB'S BALANCING ACTEuro zone inflation data on Nov. 30 may well confirm a trend of price rises moderating. Policymakers remain wary of any hopes for rate cuts spilling over into increased bank lending and household spending, renewing inflationary pressures.
Persons: Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Amanda Cooper, it's, Joshua Roberts, Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Christine Lagarde, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Vineet Sachdev, Prinz, Toby Chopra Organizations: BUCK, IT'S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, REUTERS, COP28, World Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Dubai, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Washington , U.S, UAE
Dollar slips on bets US rates have peaked
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. Currencies traded in a relatively narrow range with U.S. markets closing early the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. "I think what we're seeing is a classic case of the market taking the 'path of least resistance.'" The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.4 % to 103.35 , staying close to the 2-1/2 month low of 103.17 touched earlier this week. German business morale improved for a third straight month in November, data showed.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Michael Brown, Jane Foley, Sterling, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ankur Banerjee, Joice Alves, David Evans, Jason Neely, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Trader, P Global, Rabobank, Federal, ING, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, London, Germany, Singapore
Dollar eases on bets US rates have peaked
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. "I think what we're seeing is a classic case of the market taking the 'path of least resistance'," Brown said. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.3% to 103.43, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was about flat against the dollar at 149.53, after strengthening following data that showed Japan's core consumer price growth picked up slightly in October. Separate data showed German business morale improved for a third straight month in November.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Michael Brown, Brown, X's Brown, Sterling, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ankur Banerjee, Joice Alves, David Evans, Jason Neely Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Trader, P Global, Federal, ING, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, London, U.S, Germany, Singapore
Lindner plans to lift self-imposed limits on borrowing and present a supplementary budget next week after a constitutional court ruling wiped billions from the federal budget and forced the government to freeze most new spending commitments. HANDS TIED IN A BOXING MATCHThe crisis has sparked calls for reforming the debt brake. "With the debt brake as it is, we have voluntarily tied our hands behind our backs and are going into a boxing match. A poll by the broadcaster ZDF suggested only a minority of Germans, 35%, supported suspending the debt brake however, compared to 61% wanting it to stay in place. Some 57% wanted the budget shortfall from the court ruling to be covered by spending cuts, 11% favoured tax increases and 23% wanted the state to take on additional debt.
Persons: Christian Lindner, Lindner, hawkish Lindner, Chancellor Olaf Scholz's, Robert Habeck, Habeck, Thomas Gitzel, Holger Hansen, Christian Kraemer, Miranda Murray, Rene Wagner, Matthias Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: BERLIN, German Finance, Greens, ZDF, Bank, Thomson Locations: Germany, China, Europe
With U.S. markets closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and due for a shorter Black Friday trading session, currencies are trading narrowly as liquidity is expected to remain thin. The bank will "then begin its first rate hike in Q2 2024 if wage growth continues to accelerate next year". The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.9% year-on-year in October, government data showed on Friday, against 3.0% expected by economists in a Reuters poll. Separate data showed German business morale improved for a third straight month in November. Sterling rose for a second consecutive day, up 0.2% to $1.2559, after data showed on Thursday that British companies returned to growth in November, fuelling hopes Britain will avoid a recession.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Jefferies, Mohit Kumar, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Joice Alves, Jan Harvey, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, U.S, Federal, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ING, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, SINGAPORE, Germany, Singapore, London
Dollar defensive as markets weigh US rates outlook
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A woman counts U.S. dollar bills at her home in Buenos Aires, Argentina August 28, 2018. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.029% to 103.73, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. The Australian dollar rose 0.14% to $0.657, while the kiwi rose 0.07% to $0.605. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 2.8 basis points to 4.576%. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Sterling, Cash Treasuries, Ankur Banerjee, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Fed, Bank of Japan, ING, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Rights SINGAPORE, Germany, Asia, Singapore
The au Jibun Bank flash Japan manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) slipped to 48.1 in November from 48.7 in October. "Demand conditions at private sector firms remained muted in November and were little-changed from October." The au Jibun Bank flash services PMI stood at 51.7 in November, little changed from 51.6 in October, showing modest expansion in the sector, but it was the second-weakest reading so far this year. Firms stayed confident about the business activity outlook for one year ahead, the survey said. The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan composite PMI, which combines both manufacturing and service sector activity, stood at 50.0 in November from 50.5 in October.
Persons: Toru Hanai, Usamah Bhatti, Kaori Kaneko, Kim COghill Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, P Global Market Intelligence, PMI, Firms, Jibun Bank Flash Japan, Thomson Locations: Kawasaki, Japan
Dollar defensive as markets weigh U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar was restrained on Friday by uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates, while the euro held overnight gains as data hinted that the downturn in the euro zone may be easing. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.029% to 103.73, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. The Australian dollar rose 0.14% to $0.657, while the kiwi rose 0.07% to $0.605. Cash Treasuries resumed trading in Asia after Japan's holiday on Thursday, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes up 2.9 basis points at 4.445%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 2.8 basis points to 4.576%.
Persons: Sterling, Cash Treasuries Organizations: U.S, Federal, Fed, Bank of Japan, ING, Treasury Locations: Germany, Asia
Germany's economy shrinks slightly in third quarter
  + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Germany's economy shrank slightly in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, data from its statistics office showed on Friday. The figure confirmed an initial estimate, published in late October, that saw Europe's largest economy shrink by 0.1%. In the second quarter, Germany's economy had grown by 0.1% after stagnating in the first three months of the year. Private consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of GDP, was 0.3% lower than in the previous quarter, the statistics office said. The Bundesbank said in its monthly economic report on Monday that the German economy will likely shrink again in the fourth quarter and show signs of slight improvement early next year.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Ruth Brand, Thomas Gitzel, Miranda Murray, Linda Pasquini, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe
Activity is now at a 13-year low as rising borrowing costs take their toll on the US housing market. Mortgage rates have cleared 7.5% this year, driven higher by the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation. AdvertisementThe spike in mortgage rates dragged on the US housing market once again last month, as activity plunged to a 13-year low even as prices ticked up. Soaring mortgage rates, driven to their highest level since the turn of the century by the Federal Reserve's war on inflation, have fueled the housing-market slowdown. As a result, existing homeowners have opted to cling to the historically low mortgage rates they locked in over the last 15 years rather than move house.
Persons: , Freddie Mac, Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal, Service, Biden Administration, NAR
The Nasdaq boasted its highest closing level since July 31 while the S&P 500 registered its highest close since Aug. 1. Its biggest boost came from Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares which touched a record high and ended up 2%. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) ended less than 1% below its 2023 closing peak reached in late July. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 90 new lows.
Persons: Bristol Myers, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Bruce Zaro, Dow, Brendan McDermid, Germany's Bayer, decliners, Sinéad Carew, Amruta, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, Richard Chang Organizations: Microsoft, Bristol, Dow, Nasdaq, Nasdaq's, Nvidia, Apple, Granite Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Federal, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Graphics, Traders, Bristol Myers Squibb, Sunday, Boeing, Deutsche Bank, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Providence , Rhode Island, New York City, U.S, Thursday's U.S, New York
Opinion | My Brother’s Thanksgiving Lament
  + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Maureen Dowd | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
We could use some prayers right now, in a country inflamed with hate and prejudice and generational mistrust. Americans are at each other’s throats, living in different realities, fraught by two brutal, calamitous wars. ****Less than a year before the country chooses a president, President Biden’s poll numbers are almost catastrophic. While majorities of the country find both Trump and Biden unacceptable, Trump remains the Republican front-runner, bolstered by what his supporters see as overeager Democratic prosecutions. This scenario holds great peril for Republicans because Trump is the weakest candidate against Biden.
Persons: Kevin, Biden’s, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump Organizations: Trump, Republican, Democratic, Republicans, Biden
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 21 (Reuters) - A surge of diesel and gasoline exports from China in the last northern winter eased then-prevailing fuel shortages in Asia but a repeat performance this year is unlikely. Diesel exports peaked at 2.39 million metric tons in January this year, before dropping to just 290,000 by June, according to official customs data. Since then they have eased back, dropping to 1.18 million metric tons in September and 1.11 million in October. November exports are expected to less than 700,000 metric tons, according to an estimate by LSEG based on ship-tracking and port data. Shipments this month are likely to be around 600,000 metric tons, according to LSEG, which would be the weakest month this year.
Persons: LSEG, Kpler, Robert Birsel Organizations: Diesel, LSEG, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Beijing, Singapore, Europe
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Closely watched U.S. treasury yields slipped after auction, while global oil futures gained $2 on the prospect of supply cuts. Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) inched up 0.1%, with energy stocks (.SXEP) leading gains. The healthcare sector (.SXDP) fell after shares in Bayer (BAYGn.DE) dropped to their lowest in 14 years. The dollar index fell to 103.26, its weakest since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates next year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, U.S, Bayer, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Trading, LPL, Tech, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, Thursday's U.S, United States, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The S&P 500 information technology sub-index (.SPLRCT), up 1.6%, was the top gainer among the S&P 500's 11 major sectors, getting its biggest boost from Microsoft's shares (MSFT.O) which touched a record high and were last up 2%. Microsoft will also take on Greg Brockman, another OpenAI cofounder, as well as other researchers. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) was also closing back in on its year-to-date high reached in July, just a little over 1% below the milestone. The S&P 500 posted 25 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 78 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Bristol Myers, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, Bruce Zaro, Germany's Bayer, decliners, Sinéad Carew, Amruta, Maju Samuel, Pooja Desai, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Bristol, Dow, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Investors, Granite Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Federal, Traders, Graphics, Bristol Myers Squibb, Sunday, Boeing, Deutsche Bank, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Providence , Rhode Island, Thursday's U.S, New York
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has showed a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was traded at 148.40 yen , down 0.81%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Reserve Bank of Richmond, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S
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