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☆ Shares fall as US debt deal goes to a vote; China data rattles nerves
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Data showed China's manufacturing activity fell more than expected in May, while services growth -- which has been one of the few bright spots in its patchy recovery -- slackened to its slowest pace in four months. For any investors hoping for a sustained bounce in Chinese growth after the elimination of stringent COVID restrictions late last year, the figures offered more evidence that the economy is losing steam, further dimming the global outlook. The euro tumbled by as much as 0.7% on the day after data showed a rapid cooling in consumer price pressures in both France and Germany - the region's two largest economies. Meanwhile, Treasury yields fell after a deal to suspend the U.S. debt limit and avoid a default cleared a House of Representatives committee overnight. Two-year yields fell 5 bps to 4.428%.

Persons: they're, Michael Hewson, COVID, Matt Simpson, Treasuries, Brent, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Kim Coghill, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Global, CMC, Burberry, Swatch Group, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Washington, Europe, France, Germany, Singapore

☆ Dollar nudges lower as U.S. debt ceiling deal dents safe-haven appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Dollar edges down following U.S. debt ceiling dealRisk currencies rallyTurkish lira touches new record lowLONDON, May 29 (Reuters) - The dollar nudged lower on Monday, pulling back from six-month peaks against the yen as a U.S. debt ceiling deal lifted risk appetite across world markets and dented the greenback's safe-haven appeal. Having briefly touched a six-month high of 140.91 yen during Asia trade, the dollar drifted lower and was last down 0.25% at 140.25 yen. "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date." Talk that the U.S. rate hiking cycle may not be over as soon as hoped given signs of economic strength have bolstered the dollar this month and could support the currency even as U.S. debt ceiling worries abate.

☆ Dollar steady on mounting Fed hike bets, debt ceiling deal optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 29 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm on Monday supported by growing expectations of further rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, though news that a debt ceiling deal had been finalised drew some of the safe haven bids away from the greenback. DEBT DEAL DONE? "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said NAB's Attrill. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date." U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen had on Friday said the government would default if Congress did not increase the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling by June 5, having previously said a default could happen as early as June 1.

☆ Dollar elevated as sticky inflation cements Fed hike bets, debt ceiling deal lifts optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen's renewed decline has come on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as bets grow that interest rates in the United States would stay higher for longer. Cash U.S. Treasuries were untraded in Asia on Monday, owing to the Memorial Day holiday in the United States, while futures were broadly steady. DEBT DEAL DONE? "We've got a risk-positive response so far to the debt deal news," said NAB's Attrill. "Obviously there's still the need to get this debt deal over the line, but I think markets are happy to travel on the presumption that it will get done before the new X-date."

☆ European markets close higher with U.S. debt ceiling talks in final stages; tech stocks up 3%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

U.K. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt told Sky News he would be comfortable with Bank of England rate hikes pushing the economy into a recession as long as inflation comes down. "Because in the end, inflation is a source of instability," Hunt said. Money markets raised their bets on the central bank's peak rate from 4.75% to 5.5% after figures out Wednesday showed inflation fell by less than forecast. The bank's base rate is currently 4.5% and a 25 basis point hike in June is widely expected. Gilt yields have been moving higher, nearing levels last seen in the wake of former Prime Minister Liz Truss's market-rattling mini budget last October.

To be sure, the April inflation data hit the UK debt market like a thunderbolt. While the headline consumer price inflation rate dropped to 8.7% from 10.1% in March, as energy prices ebbed, that was still far higher than forecast and core inflation rates hit their highest in 31 years at just under 7%. And a chief concern for many households is ongoing annual food price inflation still near 20%. Sterling and real yield spreadsNew UK gilt shock? Using 5-year real yields from the index-linked bond market, that premium jumped almost 40bp this week to its highest since last October.

☆ Dollar set for third week of gains as US debt talks loom large
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index — which tracks the greenback against six major counterparts — was last down 0.05% on the day at 104.20, just off Thursday's two-month high of 104.31. The dollar edged away from a six-month high against the yen and last stood at 139.67, having reached 140.23 yen in the previous session, its highest since November. The euro and British pound regained some ground, but were struggling to recoup recent losses against the dollar. The single currency was last up 0.07% against the dollar at $1.0727, but was not far from its two-month low of $1.0708 hit in the previous session. Sterling gained 0.23% to $1.2349, after data showed British consumers picked up spending in April, although the currency was still heading for a weekly loss.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, MUFG, —, Carol Kong, Boris Vujcic, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Wall, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, British, European Central Bank Locations: U.S, Washington, Croatian

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen previously warned lawmakers that a default in early June is "highly likely." Prices rose 1.2% month on month, above a forecast of 0.8%. "April 2022 saw energy prices increase by 47.5%. Thanks to the government's energy price guarantee, this energy surge has now dropped out of the year-on-year equation, leading the comparative inflation rate to naturally fall." The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday joined the Bank of England in saying that it no longer expects a U.K. recession this year.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Jeremy Batstone, Carr Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Raymond James Investment Services, of England, Capital Economics, Monetary Fund, Tuesday, Bank of England Locations: European

☆ Dollar gains as debt deal optimism fires up investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That eased fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. "As far as expectations for a June rate hike are concerned, those have risen significantly in the last week. Against the yen , the dollar was down 0.4% at 138.19 yen, having risen to a six-month peak of 138.745 earlier on. Among other major currencies, the Australian dollar took some heart from a pickup in commodity prices like copper and iron ore. In China, the yuan slid to its lowest since December, at 7.0365 per dollar, as data offered evidence of a sputtering recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

☆ Dollar gains as debt deal hopes rekindle hawkish Fed bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That eased fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The euro fell to a more than seven-week low of $1.0760, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% to 103.57, flirting with Thursday's two-month high of 103.63. "It does remove one obstacle to the Fed continuing to raise rates." U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2510%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was last at 3.6402%.

☆ Dollar buoyed by hawkish Fed expectations as debt deal eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed near a six-month peak against the yen on Friday on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as optimism over debt ceiling talks in Washington raised expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. The news helped calm fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic American debt default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The dollar stayed elevated in early Asia trade on Friday and last bought 138.40 yen , having risen to a near six-month high of 138.75 yen in the previous session. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2581%, edging away from a low of 3.964% at the start of the week.

April's unexpected acceleration in inflation to 4.4% from 4.3% in March has some economists forecasting a hike later this year. "Inflation has come down. We expect it will continue to come down," Macklem said when asked about the inflation figures published this week. He did, however, acknowledge that April inflation "did come in stronger than we expected." "While most households are proving resilient to increases in debt-servicing costs, early signs of financial stress are emerging," particularly among recent home buyers, according to the so-called Financial System Review.

The RBI's repo rate is at 6.50%. Banks met officials from the Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India (FIMMDA) last week to raise the issue of persistently high overnight rates. FIMMDA and RBI officials did not respond to Reuters' emails seeking comment. Even as overnight rates stay elevated, treasury officials are not anticipating any infusion from the RBI as they expect liquidity conditions to improve in due course. That dividend transfer, according to traders, could top 1 trillion rupees ($12.23 billion), sharply above the budgeted 480 billion rupees.

☆ Dollar awaits inflation data, rattled by debt ceiling impasse
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar seesawed on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers made no headway in the debt ceiling crisis, although volatility was minimal ahead of inflation data that could be instrumental in determining where interest rates head. The dollar held onto most of Tuesday's gains, thanks to another sharp rise in short-dated Treasury yields and to the nervousness that prevailed over Wednesday's U.S. inflation data. The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.0947, as was sterling , which eased 0.1% to $1.2605. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index edged up 0.14% to 101.76, having earlier fallen by as much as 0.11%. The Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 135.25 and fell 0.1% against the euro to 148.075, while the Australian dollar fell 0.2% to $0.675.

☆ Dollar braces for inflation, rattled by debt ceiling impasse
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar seesawed on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers made no headway in the debt ceiling crisis, although volatility was minimal ahead of inflation data that could be instrumental in determining where interest rates head. Biden, McCarthy and the three other top congressional leaders are set to meet again on Friday. The dollar held onto most of Tuesday's gains, thanks to another sharp rise in short-dated Treasury yields and to the nervousness that prevailed over Wednesday's U.S. inflation data. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index steadied at 101.64. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was steady against the dollar at 135.25 and against the euro at 148.155, while the Australian dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6755.

☆ Dollar softer as US debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. The two, however, agreed to further talks and committed their aides to daily discussions about areas of possible agreement. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

With a wry nod to the weekend coronation of King Charles, Goldman Sachs' currency team labelled an upgrade of its sterling recommendation from neutral to 'Long (live) Sterling' - nudging a 3-month forecast for sterling 3% stronger to 0.86 per euro. "Headwinds on sterling in 2022 - mostly natural gas prices and the relative stance of BoE policy - have turned to tailwinds." Economic surprise indexes compiled by Citi show incoming UK readouts more positive relative to expectations than at any time since October 2020. But the FTSE 250 is mostly holding its own so far in 2023 as they have both advanced 3%-4%. UK Economic Surprises surge vs rest of the westG3 Terminal RatesFTSE100 vs FTSE250The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ Dollar softer as U.S. debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

☆ Asian stocks edge lower amid gloomy China data as US CPI looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

TOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - Asian stocks eased back from more than two-week highs on Tuesday as traders squared positions heading into a key U.S. inflation report, while gloomy Chinese trade data also kept risk sentiment in check. Mainland Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) turned lower after early gains, with the benchmark CSI 300 dropping 0.8%. "So when you have some trend data which is not as good as people expect, it raises doubts," he said. "The surprise lies on the downside" for the inflation data, particularly the risk of a drop below 5%, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG markets. Brent crude was down 30 cents at $76.71 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 26 cents to $72.90.

☆ Asian stocks edge lower, dollar firm as US inflation data looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), though, slipped 0.3%, erasing part of Monday's 0.9% rally. Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) dropped 0.4%, while Australia's benchmark (.AXJO) lost 0.2% and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.4%. Investors were mostly unmoved by Chinese data showing exports surged last month while imports eased. "The surprise lies on the downside" for the inflation data, particularly the risk of a drop below 5%, said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG markets. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was little changed after earlier rising overnight from near the bottom of its trading range since the middle of last month.

The dollar remained relatively weaker against most of its major peers, even as the dollar index rose 0.059% and the euro fell 0.15% to $1.1002. Friday's robust U.S. payrolls report prompted investors to dial back their expectations for the timing and size of the Fed's first interest rate cut. The two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose a touch above 4.0%. The dollar rose 0.18% against the yen. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

In Europe, the broad pan-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.34% on expectations non-U.S. stocks will outperform in the months ahead. Sterling , which has gained 4.4% against the dollar this year, earlier hit a 12-month high of 1.2668 ahead of an expected Bank of England rate increase on Thursday. The dollar rose 0.01% against the yen. "The survey should point to further broad-based tightening in bank lending standards," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at JPMorgan. Bullion regained ground after a sharp retreat in the previous session, ahead of the inflation data that could shed light on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

☆ Take Five: Sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday. At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ SELL IN MAYConventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year. "Sell in May and go away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October.

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