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☆ The inflation story is driving the 2023 stock market forecast for now
  + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
What's going to happen in the stock market in 2023? That is playing against the "inflation data is improving" narrative that has been powering the stock market recently. Judging by some of the comments from strategists, 2023 sounds pretty gloomy. The S & P 500 is above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Seven of the 11 sectors of the S & P 500 are above their 200-day moving average.
☆ Markets 'completely ignored' Powell's balanced inflation remarks and are not pricing in key risks, Mohamed El-Erian says
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Markets are dismissing inflation risks after Powell signaled rate hikes may slow, Mohamed El-Erian said. But inflation is likely to stay sticky next year, and there are still credit and earnings risks for stocks. "So the marketplace is saying inflation risks are over. The market isn't focusing yet on credit and earnings risk, and that's because … there's no sign of a recession," El-Erian added. So keep an open mind, and let's not repeat the mistake of last year, when we all embraced transitory inflation," El-Erian said.
☆ The rally in stocks will trick investors into thinking the bear market is over, but there's still a case for the S&P 500 to fall another 26% next year, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Stocks rallying on hopes of the Fed pausing rate hikes will fool investors into thinking the bear market is over, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said. But stocks could be hit with an earnings recession next year, he told Bloomberg, warning a 26% drop in the S&P 500 was still possible. This is a classic Fed pause stock market rally," Wilson said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Thursday. That means the Nasdaq and other heavily-shorted stocks could be leading the new market rally, but investors are still in a bear market, even if gains last through December, Wilson warned. "This rally will go further and will probably drag people back into thinking that this bear market is over," he added.
☆ The S&P 500 could drop 24% within months as earnings gloom reaches a crescendo, Morgan Stanley's top stock picker warns
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The S&P 500 could fall 24% from current levels in early 2023, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson predicted. Companies will downgrade their earnings targets and that will drive a selloff in US stocks, he said. The S&P 500 has plunged 17% plunge year-to-date as concerns about recession, the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have rattled investors' confidence. Lower earnings could cause major pain for larger-cap stocks, Wilson said. Read more: The S&P 500 is likely to bottom out early next year in a 'terrific buying opportunity' for investors, Morgan Stanley says
☆ The economy is already in a 'rolling recession', and that could set stocks up for a better 2023, Charles Schwab investment chief says
  + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The US is already in a "rolling recession," according to Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders. Sonders said that could soon weigh on corporate earnings, with more downside possible for stocks. "We're already in a version of recession, we've been talking about it in the context of a rolling recession. A rolling recession means those losses could soon spread to corporate earnings, Sonders said, which would likely hit the stock market sector by sector rather than crashing all at once. If a recession is mild and the job market holds up, that could mean a better environment for stocks in the second half of 2023.
☆ 'Wild ride': Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson predicts double-digit percentage drop will hit stocks in early 2023
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Stephanie Landsman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who has an S&P 500 year-end target of 3,900 for next year, warns corporate America is getting ready to unleash downward earnings revisions that will pummel stocks. Wilson, who serves as the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist and chief investment officer, believes the S&P could drop as much as 24% from Tuesday's close in early 2023. "You should expect an S&P between 3,000 and 3,300 some time in probably the first four months of the year," he said. "That's when we think the deacceleration on the revisions on the earnings side will kind of reach its crescendo." Wilson's year-end price target was 3,900 for this year, too.
☆ Suncor to retain Petro-Canada retail business
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
Nov 29 (Reuters) - Canada's Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO) said on Tuesday it would retain the Petro-Canada gas station retail business. "After careful consideration, the Board has concluded that retaining and optimizing the Company’s retail business will generate the highest long-term value for shareholders," company's board Chair Mike Wilson said. Reporting by Ankit Kumar; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
☆ A lot of two-way risk in the market right now, warns Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA lot of two-way risk in the market right now, warns Morgan Stanley's Mike WilsonMorgan Stanley's Mike Wilson on what's next for the market heading into the end of the year. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami and Steve Grasso.
☆ Stock Market Crash: Expert Warns 58% Drop Still to Come
  + stars: | 2022-11-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
The S&P 500 is down 16% on the year as the Fed tightens policy to fight inflation. The S&P 500 fell as much as 25% this year as the Federal Reserve pulled its support for the US economy. To return to normal valuation levels, the market would have to fall 58% further from where it sits currently, he said. The most bearish strategists among major Wall Street institutions see the S&P 500 falling to around the 3,000, about -25% assuming a recession plays out. He's more bearish than Wilson in the short term, however, with a three-month price target of 3,600 for the S&P 500.
☆ Morningstar: Buy these 14 cheap stocks that still have room to rally in a bear market
  + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Contrary to intutition, bear market rallies may make it tougher for investors to do their jobs. Morningstar shared 14 stocks that are still cheap, despite beating the market. Then, they whittled that list down to the stocks that Morningstar analysts considered undervalued. Finally, Morningstar analysts highlighted AstraZeneca (AZN), noting its strong pipeline and its development of drugs that carry high pricing power. The full list of Morningstar's 14 undervalued bear market stars is below, along with each firm's ticker, sector, bear market return, and price discount.
☆ The Fed's last rate hike will come in January, but stocks will still be under pressure from dismal earnings in 2023, Morgan Stanley strategist says
  + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
The Fed could stop hiking rates as soon as January of next year, according to Morgan Stanley's Andrew Sheets. Sheets pointed to evidence of falling inflation, though he noted central bankers would likely keep monitoring the economy after pausing rate hikes. But while investors are hoping a pause could spark a new rally, stocks will still be under pressure next year on poor earnings, he warned. But central bankers risk undoing the tightening they've done so far by pausing rate hikes, Sheets pointed out. Stocks are still likely to face downward pressure with dismal earnings into 2023, Sheets said.
☆ Morgan Stanley's Wilson says inflation is set to slide; warns of 'new era' ahead
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson expects a "pretty steep decline in inflation" between now and the end of next year. But Wilson, who is also Morgan Stanley's chief investment officer, warned that "we're in a new era." "I don't think the Fed's ever going to zero again because … inflation now has arrived. It follow other calls that the era of cheap money is over , spelling tough times ahead for sectors such as tech. Inflation still 'stickier' for these 2 areas Wilson said there are still two areas where inflation could be "stickier:" energy and labor.
☆ CNBC Pro Talks: Asset manager Patrick Armstrong on Big Tech, market outlook and stocks to short
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Cnbc.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
As investors continue to navigate a slew of market risks, join CNBC's next Pro Talks for insights on how to come out on top. Armstrong manages funds including the Plurimi AI Global Equity Strategy. Watch the Pro Talks on Wednesday, Nov. 23 at 8 p.m. Singapore time/12 p.m. London time/7 a.m. Learn more from our previous Pro Talks: Fund manager names 3 recession-proof stocks and reveals how to rescue your portfolio if underwater Tech stocks are tumbling but one fund manager still loves Microsoft. Watch the Pro Talks on Wednesday, Nov. 23 at 8 p.m. Singapore time/12 p.m. London time/7 a.m.
☆ Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson: We are bearish on earnings in 2023 but bullish for 2024
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMorgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson: We are bearish on earnings in 2023 but bullish for 2024Mike Wilson, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down his market forecast for 2023.
☆ Markets in 2023 will face 'extreme volatility' as the economy navigates 1940s-style boom-bust inflation cycle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Next year will see extreme volatility as the economy grapples with the boom-bust inflation cycle, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. He compared the current inflation cycle to the demand-driven inflation that took root in the economy after World War II. Sticky inflation spells trouble for the Federal Reserve, which has been scrambling to hike rates and rein in high prices. But it creates probably a lot more dispersion, quite frankly, across the stock market," Wilson said, warning investors of mixed corporate earnings results next year.
☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson on markets
  + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson on marketsMike Wilson, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to break down his market forecast for 2023 and why he thinks inflation has peaked. Wilson also explains why he thinks the stock market will become "more democratic" moving forward.
☆ Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson predicts the S&P 500's bottom, calls it a 'terrific buying opportunity'
  + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson says we're nearing the end of the bear market, but things could remain challenging for a while longer. And I think we're going to be in that two-way risk probably until the year end." He added: "The final move of the bear market probably comes next year in the first quarter, when the earnings finally catch up to where we think they're going to be next year." Markets have certainly had a volatile year, with a number of bear market rallies raising — and dashing — hopes. "If things slow down and inflation comes down, the pressure on margins is going to be extraordinary," he said.
☆ Goldman Sachs says the 'bear market is not over' for global stocks and predicts the bottom
  + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Goldman Sachs says the current rally in global stocks is temporary, forecasting a market bottom in 2023. By December 2023, Goldman Sachs expects the S & P 500 to rise to 4,000 points — that's just 0.9% higher than Friday's close. Goldman's prediction is similar to Morgan Stanley's call on the S & P 500. Its Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson expects the S & P 500 to rise to 3,900 by the end of next year. Goldman said it was more concerned over the potential "damage" from the speed of interest rate hikes this year — from 0.25% to 3.75%-4% — than the actual rate.
☆ The market is still a long way from seeing stocks hit a bottom and interest rates come down, Goldman Sachs chief equities strategist says
  + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The stock market is still a long way from hitting a bottom, Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer warned. Meanwhile, markets are similarly far off from seeing interest rates come down. "We don't think we've hit yet the sort of conditions that we would typically see in a genuine trough in the bear market." That's because companies are still struggling with high interest rates and a soaring US dollar. But he warned investors of more volatility ahead until interest rates start to coming down.
☆ Morgan Stanley analysts handpick 21 dividend stocks they think will provide attractive yields over the next 3-5 years as the economy slows
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
Dividend stocks do well in late-cycle environments, Morgan Stanley says. The bank's analysts recently handpicked 21 of their favorite dividend stocks. Morgan StanleyMorgan StanleyThis data in mind, Morgan Stanley's top US equity strategists petitioned their teams to come up with their favorite dividend-paying stocks. "These stocks combine yield, growth, and stability measures and look attractive on a 3-5 year basis from a dividend yield perspective." The 21 stocks the analysts produced are listed below in the order Morgan Stanley listed them in their note.
☆ Morgan Stanley strategist who nailed 2022 gives his outlook for the new year
  + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The stock market is likely to make new lows early in 2023 before building momentum in the second half of the year, according to Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson. We remain highly convicted that 2023 bottom up consensus earnings are materially too high," Morgan Stanley said in a U.S. Equities Outlook for next year. The 2023 year-end target of 3,900 is less than 1% below where the S & P 500 closed on Friday. Once the market has come to grips with lower corporate earnings, stocks could then see a sustained rally, Wilson said. The strategist said investors should look to play defense in the near future as the recent market rally rolls over.
☆ How to know when stocks have bottomed: UBS shares 17 indicators to watch that will likely signal the end of the bear market — and how high stocks could climb afterward
  + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Stocks will likely bottom in Q3 2023, says UBS strategist Keith Parker. Right now, 59% of the indicators are triggered, suggesting a few more need to be checked off before stocks can bottom. Once stocks do bottom, Parker said stocks have typically gone on a tear. In recessionary scenarios where the market falls around 35%, the market surges on average 42% in the 12-month period following a bottom. In non-recessionary declines of around 25%, the market usually returns 27% in the 12 months after a bottom, Parker said.
☆ Democratic upset in U.S. midterms could roil markets, options mavens say
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - An unexpected result in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm election could roil markets positioned for relative calm, options strategists said. Control of the U.S. Congress is at stake in Tuesday's midterms, with Republicans favored by polls and betting markets to win control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. At the individual stock level, certain names have the potential for higher election-related volatility, strategists at Goldman Sachs said in a note earlier this month. Meanwhile, shares of tobacco company Philip Morris International Inc (PM.N) could be volatile around regulatory restrictions, Goldman’s analysts wrote. Reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed in New York Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
☆ Factbox: Market implications from Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
NEW YORK, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Investors are turning their focus to Tuesday's midterm elections, which will determine control of the U.S. Congress. Here are some potential market implications from Tuesday's vote:** With a Democrat in the White House, the best market performance has come when Republicans held either the House, Senate or both. The S&P 500 is down 20% this year. Over the past 18 political cycles, the S&P 500 has risen by an average of over 15% in the year following the midterm vote, according to Oxford Economics. A GOP win could also raise expectations for higher defense spending and more favorable legislation for the fossil fuel industry.
☆ Midterms could be a 'game changer' for stocks - and experts see big upside for the S&P 500 this election cycle.
  + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Whether or not this means Democrats hold onto their majority or Republicans claim victory in today's elections is still an open question. Early voters cast their ballots in Atlanta, Georgia in the 2018 midterm elections in October. If Republicans gain seats in today's midterm elections, the thinking is that Democrats would have a harder time passing aggressive fiscal spending plans. What's your view on how a Democrat or Republican victory in today's midterm elections impacts the stock market? Goldman Sachs named which stocks to buy now that can help you capitalize on gains during Tuesday's midterm elections.
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