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Morning Bid: Interminable anxiety
  + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
The about-turn in rates markets in just two weeks has been extraordinary - with Fed funds futures pricing moving from a terminal rate as low as 4.8% to 5.26% on Wednesday. Two-year Treasury yields soared to a 3-month high of 4.64% on Tuesday - where current Fed rates sit - and only gave back a fraction of that on Wednesday. U.S. stocks held up remarkably well on Tuesday - helped by hopes recession fears are easing even as rate speculation intensifies. Sterling slipped as UK inflation fell faster than expected last month, even though the annual inflation rate remains in double digits. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).
U.S. Treasury yields declined on Wednesday as investors digested January's consumer price index report and looked ahead to further economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve speakers slated for the week. On Tuesday, the latest reading of the consumer price index, which tracks price changes for a range of goods and services, came in higher than expected and showed that inflation rose by 0.5% in January. Speaking at the New York Bank Association after the release of the CPI report, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that the Fed's battle with inflation was not yet over. The Fed has been hiking interest rates in an effort to cool the economy and ease inflation. On Wednesday, investors will be following the release of retail sales figures and awaiting the release of the producer price index report, as well as fresh comments from Fed officials on Thursday.
Morning Bid: Wings of a Dove
  + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
U.S. President Joe Biden is expected on Tuesday to name Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard to a top White House economic policy position, replacing National Economic Council Director Brian Deese. Biden confidant Jared Bernstein is expected to replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Brainard was seen as a powerful voice cautioning against over-aggressive Fed policy tightening. U.S. stock futures and world equities were higher on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar were steady to lower. Euro zone economic growth slowed in the last three months of 2022 but avoided a contraction many had predicted for months.
Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
  + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.
Nasdaq futures edge higher as battered megacaps rise
  + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A fall in Treasury note yields indicate traders expect greater return from investments in risky assets. The major U.S. stock indexes ended the week previous lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq (.IXIC) clocking its first weekly loss this year. Investor sentiment was dented by fresh concerns that the Federal Reserve would keep higher interest rates for longer. ET, Dow e-minis were down 18 points, or 0.05%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 4.5 points, or 0.11%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 50.5 points, or 0.41%. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - This Valentine's Day is set to look different after a year of record food inflation that has sent up prices of everything from flowers to chocolates and dining in restaurants. Last year, British restaurant chain PizzaExpress offered a three-course set menu complete with "a prosecco and raspberry mimosa, heart-shaped dough balls and a main, such as our Padana, with creamy goat’s cheese and sweet caramelised onion". This year, PizzaExpress is advertising a slightly less impressive "love bundle" of a starter and a "classic" pizza for 15 pounds. Reuters GraphicsThe nation's supermarkets are seeking to cash in, keepingprices for their Valentine's Day meal-deals stable in the hope of luring customers from restaurants. Tesco (TSCO.L), whose CEO recently noted that consumers are shifting away from eating out, has reduced the price of its Valentine's Day dinner-for-two to 12 pounds - down from 15 pounds last year - for a main, side dish, dessert and drink.
LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rallied on Thursday after the country's central bank raised interest rates and forecast further tightening, while the dollar weakened against most other currencies alongside positive sentiment across markets. The dollar was last down 1.4% against the crown at 10.45 crowns and the euro was down 1.16% at 11.21, after the Riksbank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, and forecast more increases in the spring. The Swedish currency has been under pressure, having hit its weakest since 2009 against the euro earlier this week as markets bet the central bank will raise rates less aggressively than the European Central Bank due to domestic economic conditions. Markets are also digesting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers about the U.S. interest rate plans after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs data and ahead of next week's closely watched inflation numbers. Williams's comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was under way.
Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rallied against a backdrop of gains for U.S. equity futures and a more hawkish Reserve Bank. Investors will closely watch consumer price inflation data on Tuesday for additional clues on the policy outlook. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. "From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes," German central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the newspaper Boersen-Zeitung on Tuesday. His colleague Isabel Schnabel said it is not yet clear that the ECB rate hikes so far would bring inflation back to 2%.
Morning Bid: Corporate scatter
  + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. A hail of mega corporate updates distracted stock markets from a confusing macro picture - but offers little more clarity with scattergun fortunes and ambiguous readouts for the wider economy. The flub fed worries that the Google parent is losing ground to rival Microsoft (MSFT.O) in the renewed craze around artificial intelligence. European shares touched a fresh nine-month high on Thursday as Germany's Siemens and UK's AstraZeneca boosted earnings euphoria, while Britain's bank, commodity and pharma heavy FTSE100 hit another record high. Norway's $1.35 trillion sovereign wealth fund said it had recently divested virtually all its remaining shares in the Adani group.
MUMBAI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, weighed by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and higher oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee would open around 82.60-82.62 per dollar, compared with the 82.4925 closing in the previous session. Fed officials on Wednesday said more interest rate rises are on the cards in the central bank's efforts to bring down inflation. Moving to a rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view," New York Fed President John Williams said. Fed fund futures are pricing in rate cuts of about 30 to 35 basis points after peaking at around 5.12% in July.
The U.S. dollar steadied just below recent peaks on Wednesday, as investors waited to hear from the Federal Reserve and pondered whether weak U.S. data may slow the pace of rate hikes. Williams' comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was underway. The Japanese yen weakened 0.11% to 131.54 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2064, down 0.06% on the day. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. Investor focus will now switch to the U.S. inflation data due next week on Tuesday.
Yet US manufacturing has likely already contracted into a recession, housing sales have plummeted, tech layoffs keep coming and corporate earnings growth is souring. “We continue to think the economy will suffer from rolling recessions, evidenced by the fact that corporate earnings growth is now entering its downturn,” wrote Sonders in a note on Wednesday. For five straight weeks, the bank’s clients have been big buyers of individual stocks and sellers of ETFs, she wrote. Disney revenue in the quarter rose 8% to $23.5 billion, edging past estimates of $23.4 billion from analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company reported revenue of $8.6 billion for the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimates and marking a 49% increase from the prior year.
Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. After weeks of defying the Federal Reserve, U.S. markets realized that interest rate hikes are probably here to stay. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
After weeks of defying the Federal Reserve, U.S. markets realized that interest rate hikes are probably here to stay. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. In a wave of downbeat news, investors may indeed need a telescope to find some good news in the near term. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.
Governor Christopher Waller said the battle to reach the Fed's 2% inflation target "might be a long fight". But Governor Lisa Cook said the big job gains in January with moderating wage growth increased hopes of a "soft landing". The bond market rallied a little after being caught wrongfooted by the January blockbuster U.S. jobs report, forcing many to reposition for a higher peak in the Fed funds rate. The two-year Treasury yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, eased 2 basis points to 4.4375% on Thursday, while the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes slid 5 basis points to 3.6012%. In the oil market, Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $84.90 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also settled 0.1% lower at $78.36.
European markets are heading for a higher open Thursday as investors weigh up the economic outlook and interest rate trajectory. U.S. stock futures rose slightly Wednesday night as investors took in more big corporate earnings reports while stocks in the Asia-Pacific traded mixed on Thursday, as investors assessed risks of more interest rate hikes. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is easing, but rates could still rise. A number of Federal Reserve speakers reiterated the central bank is yet to be finished with its hiking cycle, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said Wednesday that "we have farther to go" to fight inflation. Elsewhere Wednesday, New York Fed President John Williams said that if financial conditions continue to loosen, the Federal Reserve could be forced to push interest rates higher than expected.
A senior Federal Reserve official said the central bank will need to keep monetary policy sufficiently restrictive for ‘a few years’ to bring down inflation and realign supply and demand in the U.S. economy. “To me, the important thing is we need a sufficiently restrictive stance, we need to retain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy, we’re going to need to maintain that for a few years to make sure we get inflation to 2%, then eventually we’ll get interest rates presumably back to more normal levels,” New York Fed President John Williams said at The Wall Street Journal’s CFO Network Summit in New York. Fed officials last week approved lifting the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter-percentage point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. That was a slower pace than at prior meetings, they raised it by a half point in December and 0.75 point in November.
Finance chiefs are coming into the year grappling with a variety of challenges, from rising interest rates and inflation to managing labor disruptions, pricing and inventory. Newsletter Sign-up WSJ | CFO Journal The Morning Ledger provides daily news and insights on corporate finance from the CFO Journal team. “But…there’s more and more of a belief that any kind of downturn will be short and shallow, frankly. Some finance chiefs, meanwhile, are finding opportunities to expand in the volatile economy. You can’t take everything that your vendors are sending you.”Labor woes persistHiring, however, remains a challenge for finance chiefs.
A senior Federal Reserve official said the economy will need higher borrowing costs for a few years to bring down inflation and prevent price pressures from strengthening. “We still have some work to do to get interest rates in the right place,” said New York Fed President John Williams at The Wall Street Journal’s CFO Network Summit in New York on Wednesday. The Fed began raising interest rates from near zero last March. Separately, Fed governor Christopher Waller said he was optimistic that the Fed’s rate increases were slowing the economy. “And it might be a long fight, with interest rates higher for longer than some are currently expecting.”Their comments come a day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the labor market’s surprising strength underscores why bringing inflation down will take longer and require higher interest rates than many investors have been anticipating.
Morning Bid: Powell confesses 'This time it's different'
  + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Any fear of a radical Fed rethink on the back of the jobs numbers seemed wide of the mark. "This cycle is different from other cycles...it has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell admitted. And many think last week's jobs report should similarly be treated with care. They included a minimum tax for billionaires and a quadrupling of the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Brands, Eaton Corp, etcUS terminal rateReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.
Moving to a federal funds rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view of what we'll need to do this year in order to get the supply and demand imbalances down," Williams said at a Wall Street Journal event. Williams' comments were his first since the Fed's decision last week to moderate the pace of its rate rise campaign. On Wednesday, Williams said it is key for monetary policy to get to and stay at levels that will restrain growth for a few years. He added that his expectations of future Fed rate cuts are driven mostly by a need to respond to the likelihood of lower levels of inflation in the future. Williams said the prospect of a lower federal funds rate next year is driven mostly by monetary policy adjusting to a weaker inflation environment.
Wall Street falls on rate hike worries
  + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Money market participants are now betting the U.S. central bank's benchmark rate to rise above 5% in May before peaking to 5.18% by July, levels that officials have backed vociferously. Of all the S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings, 69% of them have beaten expectations, according to Refinitiv. Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N) rose 0.7% on upbeat earnings expectations for the year. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.86-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 56 new highs and 18 new lows.
US stocks closed lower on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session. Investors were focused on hawkish rhetoric from Fed chair Jerome Powell and other officials. Powell cautioned that rates could extend higher than previously thought at a speech on Tuesday. Yesterday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said he foresaw benchmark interest rates climbing higher than previously thought in his first remarks since the scorching jobs report on Friday. Fundstrat predicts tech stocks are in for a resurgent year after a turbulent 2022.
One basis points is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 3.6490% after falling by more than two basis points. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was down by close to four basis points to 4.4334%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors assessed the monetary policy outlook after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's latest comments. The central bank has been implementing monetary policy measures including rate hikes in an effort to slow the economy and cool inflation.
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