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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaMarkets have got all excited after last week's rip-roaring rally in global equities, a big tumble in U.S. Treasury yields and a bruising sell-off in the mighty dollar. But don't pop the champagne just yet. While U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, pushing the annual increase below 8% for the first time in eight months, Waller said the markets shouldn't get carried away over just one "data point." This week, U.S. retail sales will dominate the data calendar, while markets will also pay attention to euro zone flash Q3 GDP estimates. In the crypto world, after Friday's shocking collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Bahamas authorities said they were scrutinising the demise of the exchange, co-founded by 30-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried.

☆ Jim Cramer says there’s enough pain in the market for the Fed to slow rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday said that there's enough pain in the market for the Federal Reserve to consider easing its pace of interest rate hikes. "There's enough turmoil that the Fed needs to slow down its rate hikes, if only to prevent the headwinds from turning into some sort of weird [Category] 5 hurricane," he said. Amazon reportedly plans to lay off around 10,000 workers starting this week, which would be its largest headcount cut in history. Cramer pointed to the reported layoffs at Amazon and turmoil in other sectors like crypto and software stocks as examples of the Fed's damage. He added that consumers are also starting to feel the weight of the Fed's interest rate hikes, especially as the number of companies laying off their workers increases.

☆ US stocks fall after last week's big rally as investors digest Fed messaging on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks ended lower on Monday, losing steam after last week's huge rally. Investors digested comments from Fed officials. Vice chair Lael Brainard said the pace of rate hike could soon slow. Meanwhile, markets were absorbing comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller over the weekend, stating it was too early for investors to get excited about easing monetary policy. That message conflicted slightly with comments on Monday from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who suggested the central bank could soon start slowing its pace of rate hikes.

☆ Stock futures rise after Wall Street suffers first decline in three sessions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Carmen Reinicke | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures were higher Monday evening after ending the day lower, snapping a two-day advance that started when a better-than-expected inflation report stoked hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon ease up on raising interest rates. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures gained 0.23% and 0.31%, respectively. Stocks whiplashed during the day Monday on comments from Federal Reserve leaders Lael Brainard and Chris Waller about rate hikes going forward. Markets will get more inflation information on Tuesday when the producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, is released. Investors will also study comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Fed Governor Lisa Cook and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.

REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File PhotoNov 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely soon slow its interest rates hikes, Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard signaled on Monday, as the U.S. central bank tries to figure out how high borrowing costs need to go and how long they should stay there to bring down inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that the central bank's next move may be smaller to give time to judge how the rapid rate hikes so far this year are affecting the economy. But he also signaled the policy rate may next year peak at a rate higher than the 4.6% level that most policymakers had expected in September. Currently the U.S. unemployment rate is at 3.7%, below the 4% level that most policymakers believe reflects a long-run sustainable rate. Recent labor market data suggests "cooling," Brainard said, and lessening wage pressures.

☆ Morning Bid: Don't get carried away
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Fed's Brainard: Crypto finance needs strong regulation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 14 (Reuters) - Recent turmoil in the cryptocurrency market shows the need for it to be firmly regulated the same way traditional finance is, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said on Monday. "It's really concerning to see that retail investors are really getting hurt by these losses," Brainard said in an interview with Bloomberg in Washington, repeating her long-held view that crypto finance needs strong regulation. While the crypto industry has touted digital assets as fundamentally different from traditional finance, Brainard has argued the sector has proven to be susceptible to the same risks and should be subject to the same rules. "It reinforces I think this need to make sure that crypto finance, because it is no different than traditional finance in the risks that it exposes, needs to be under the regulatory perimeter." {nL4N32A0P7}"There need to be strong regulatory guardrails," Brainard said, noting that could include bringing some crypto finance into compliance with existing rules and in some cases expanding regulation.

☆ Fed vice chair Brainard: More deliberate, slower rate increases coming 'soon'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —It could soon be time for the Federal Reserve to ease up on its super-sized rate interest hikes, according to the central bank’s number-two policymaker, Vice Chair Lael Brainard. “I think it will probably be appropriate soon to maintain a slower pace of increases,” Brainard said Monday at an event hosted by Bloomberg News in Washington, DC. The Fed has taken the unprecedented step of issuing a series of massive rate hikes in its battle to tame decades-high inflation. At each of its past four meetings, the central bank approved a rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point, raising its benchmark lending rate by 4 percentage points in just nine months. “It makes sense to move through a more deliberate and data-dependent pace as we continue to make sure that there’s restraint that will bring inflation down over time,” she added.

The nature and nuance of that debate was highlighted in the past 48 hours by Fed heavyweights Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Lael Brainard. Wall Street closed in the red on Monday - not surprising given the extent of the rally Thursday and Friday - but investors are likely to gravitate towards Brainard. This was effectively a warning to investors not to get too carried away, as they had done on Thursday and Friday. chartWaller's caution helped push Wall Street lower at the open on Monday. Japan's output is expected to slow sharply from the April-June period, while on balance China's numbers are expected to weaken from September.

☆ Slower pace of rate increases could be coming 'soon,' says Fed vice chair
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Minneapolis (CNN Business) It could soon be time for the Federal Reserve to ease up on its super-sized rate interest hikes, according to the central bank's number-two policymaker, Vice Chair Lael Brainard. "I think it will probably be appropriate soon to maintain a slower pace of increases," Brainard said Monday at an event hosted by Bloomberg News in Washington, DC. The Fed has taken the unprecedented step of issuing a series of massive rate hikes in its battle to tame decades-high inflation. At each of its past four meetings, the central bank approved a rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point, raising its benchmark lending rate by 4 percentage points in just nine months. Those efforts are having an effect on the economy, and while there remains additional work to do to bring inflation down to the Fed's preferred target of 2%, it may be appropriate to take a more "deliberate" approach and review how monetary tightening is flowing through the economy, Brainard said.

☆ Fed Vice Chair Brainard says it may 'soon' be appropriate to move to slower pace of rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard indicated Monday that the central bank could soon slow the pace of its interest rate increases. With markets expecting a likely step down in December from the Fed's rapid pace of rate increases this year, Brainard confirmed that a slowdown if not a stop is looming. "I think it will probably be appropriate soon to move to a slower pace of rate increases," she told Bloomberg News in a live interview. Along with the rate hikes, the Fed has been reducing the bond holdings on its balance sheet at a maximum pace of $95 billion a month. Since that process, nicknamed "quantitative tightening," began in June, the Fed's balance sheet has contracted by more than $235 billion but remains at $8.73 trillion.

Nov 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. Asian markets kick off the trading week on Monday, with investors probably still reeling from what was one of the most dramatic weeks in recent market history. The week ahead surely won't be anywhere near as volatile. As market participants regroup, reassess, and re-position, the week ahead is packed with the regular flow of economic data and policymaker speeches. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

☆ Fed's Waller maintains skepticism on U.S. digital currency
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 10 (Reuters) - There is currently no credible case for the United States to develop an official digital version of the dollar, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday, keeping to his long-held skeptical view amid debate at the U.S. central bank. "The case for adopting one is not yet convincing to me and many others," Waller said during an event at Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia. Fed policymakers remain divided on the need for a central bank digital currency, with Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, second in command at the Fed, among those expressing support. Regardless, the Fed has indicated it would not launch one without clear support from the White House and lawmakers. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Elevated Inflation Presents Risk to U.S. Economy, Fed Report Finds
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Andrew Ackerman | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON—Elevated and persistent inflation is among the greatest near-term risks to the U.S. economic system, the Federal Reserve said, while also warning about rising friction in trading of U.S. government debt. Fed Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard said Friday there is a risk that an unexpected shock could amplify existing vulnerabilities in the financial system, in a statement accompanying the release of the central bank’s latest report on financial stability.

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Even as global central banks rapidly tightened financial conditions this year, U.S. households, banks and businesses have so far been able to adapt, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said as the Fed released its semiannual report on financial stability. More than half of those participating in the survey cited market liquidity and stress as a "salient risk," an issue not mentioned at all in the Fed's May financial stability report. TREASURY MARKET CONCERNS REVISITEDThe report noted deteriorating liquidity in the Treasury market, but said that overall it had functioned smoothly over the last few months. Liquidity conditions were particularly poor for older vintages of bonds - so-called "off the run" securities - and for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, the report found. The Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance - comprising officials from the Fed Board, Treasury, New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission - is expected to provide an update on its progress toward enhancing the resilience of the Treasury market, the Fed said, though it did not provide a timeline for that.

☆ Fed delivers fourth 75 bp hike, signals scale-back coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

This statement clearly suggests input from Vice Chair Brainard and opens the door for the Fed to slow down the pace of future rate hikes. Monetary policy today is not sufficiently tight enough. We’ll know when the Fed is done tightening; they’ll tell us by simply saying that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive. “The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A year after trading scandal, Fed is again under ethics spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

At the same time, an in-house Inspector General (IG) investigation into the regional Fed trading activities still hasn't been released and it's unclear when it will be. Unresolved in that process are publicly available disclosures for top staff at regional Fed banks. Right now, only disclosures for the Fed chief, members of the Fed's Board of Governors, top central bank staff and regional bank presidents are available. Given the quasi-private nature of the 12 regional Fed banks, there's no formal mechanism to compel those institutions to release this information. The Fed faced some criticism last year for failing to identify the financial trading activity that ensnared the regional bank presidents.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why America's job market hasn't imploded
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Mortgage rates are at their highest levels since 2002, consumer spending and business investment is falling and the Federal Reserve is fighting persistent inflation with higher interest rates. “While job openings should continue to fall in the months ahead, the fact that they remain well above normal levels should continue to support strong job growth, possibly all the way into 2023,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds. The job market is good for workers but it’s not good for inflation. The problem is that this time around, the shape of the job market is different. Oil stocks and health care companies are leading the market, with Chevron (CVX), Merck (MRK) and Amgen (AMGN) topping the Dow leaders list.

The all-inclusive figure that forms the basis for the Fed's target is likely to come in around 6%. SUPPLY, DEMAND, COMPETITIONThere has been sharp rhetoric about high corporate profits driving inflation - and indeed businesses like auto dealers enjoyed large markups during the pandemic, when demand surged and supply was limited. Based on those and other metrics, shelter inflation already may be declining even if government data doesn't show it yet. While that may not be the source of inflation, Fed officials feel that more balance between labor demand and supply will help ease price increases. "This pattern supports our view that wage growth and price inflation will moderate without a recession," Briggs wrote.

☆ Powell again is facing political pressure as worries mount over the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

No stranger to political pressure, the Fed chief this week found himself the focus of concern in a letter from Sen. Sherrod Brown. Democrats, including then-presidential hopeful Joe Biden, criticized Trump for his Fed comments, insisting the central bank be free of political pressure when formulating monetary policy. Standing firmBrown's stance was considerably more nuanced than Trump's — though equally unlikely to move the dial on monetary policy. A Fed spokesman acknowledged that Powell received the Brown letter and said normal policy is to respond to such communication directly. In the past, Powell has been generally dismissive when asked if political pressure can factor into decision making.

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a "closer call than normal" whether recession can be avoided. Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much "tighter" than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.

☆ Supply chain data eases, giving some hope for U.S. inflation relief
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The supply chain pressures that were so instrumental to driving up U.S. inflationary pressures at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic are waning. On Friday, Oxford Economics, a research firm, said that its proprietary tracker showed "supply chain strains eased in September after increasing slightly in August." Earlier in the month, the New York Fed also reported an easing of supply chain pressures. As of September, the bank's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index had eased for five straight months, leading the bank to note that the index "year-to-date movements suggest that global supply chain pressures are beginning to fall back in line with historical levels." Easing supply chain pressures could provide the Fed some light at the end of the tunnel in its inflation battle, which officials would welcome given that recent data has pointed to worsening inflation pressures.

☆ Shaken but not stirred
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The trading floor is seen at the end of a trading day at the German stock exchange (Deutsche Boerse) in Frankfurt, Germany, February 12, 2019. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach/A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaRed-hot U.S. inflation data briefly rattled global markets before Wall Street made a dramatic recovery on Thursday. U.S. stocks surged to finish more than 2% higher, reversing sharp falls as traders gave excuses of a "technical support" and "short covering". read moreKwarteng confirmed to reporters in Washington that he was flying back to London early, without providing further details. Sources familiar with the matter said he planned to meet with colleagues to work on his medium-term budget plan.

☆ Punishingly strong dollar is still a fair trade
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Everybody wants the dollar; everybody hates the dollar. That makes dollar assets relatively more attractive and puts pressure on other central banks to raise rates too. The strong dollar kicks other countries in the shins, with varying degrees of pain. Follow @johnsfoley on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe International Monetary Fund and World Bank are holding their annual meetings in Washington from Oct. 10 to Oct. 16. The dollar is up 21% since October 2020, according to the U.S. Dollar Currency Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies.

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