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The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
The US economy is currently resilient but will face a mild recession, Bank of America's Michael Gapen said. "Unless bank stress gets worse and a credit crunch is revealed, it's harder to see where that hard landing risk is coming from," he said. A correction of labor-market imbalances is needed to bring inflation back down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that typically looks like a mild recession, Gapen told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday. "The bank stress situation is in stasis – it's not getting a lot better, but it's not getting materially worse. Underneath that, the employment and other spending data show an economy that's generally resilient," he said.
Persons: of America's Michael Gapen, , Michael Gapen, Gapen, it's Organizations: of America's, Service, Bank of, Yahoo Finance
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBank of America's Michael Gapen cautions against reading into recession indicatorsMichael Gapen, head of Bank of America's global research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss CPI headline rates moving up with increasing gas prices, passing peak inflation and the potential need for softness in labor market conditions.
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