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☆ Investor focus shifts to rate cut outlook on Thanksgiving week, with Fed minutes and inflation data ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The interest rate outlook will come back into focus next week with key inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes coming out ahead of Thanksgiving, as investors wrap up a major month for markets following President-elect Donald Trump's election victory. The October personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index set to release Wednesday could dent already-dimming hopes for a December rate cut if it comes in hotter than expected. The inflation rate is expected to have increased 0.2% month over month and 2.3% year on year. Rosy expectations Even with the interest rate cut expectations coming in, investors are optimistic on the direction for stocks to close out the year and into 2025. Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this week said he expects the S & P 500 can end next year at 6,500.

Persons: Donald Trump's, —, Luke O'Neill, Stocks, O'Neill, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Brian Belski, Tom Hainlin, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Alpha Fund, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, BMO, UBS, Bank Asset Management, Dell Technologies, Chicago, New, Richmond Fed, Devices, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago

☆ Wall Street braces for a big week ahead of the election, with megacap tech earnings, key data on tap
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-25 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Investors will contend with earnings results from five of the Magnificent Seven companies next week. .SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 "I sort of refer to this period that we're in right now as like a strange brew," said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert. On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite hit an all-time high , but the S & P 500 snapped a six-week win streak. In fact, the high concentration of the mega-cap leaders in the S & P 500 spurred Goldman Sachs' David Kostin this month to release a dim long-term forecast for the overall market. HSBC head of equity strategy Nicole Inui upped her S & P 500 year-end target to 5,900.

Persons: Mark Malek, Siebert, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Siebert's Malek, they've, Nicole Inui, Inui, D.R Horton, Price, Eli Lilly, Lauder Organizations: Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Big Tech, HSBC, FactSet, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Ford, Semiconductor, Caesars Entertainment, Devices, Pfizer, Royal Caribbean Group, PayPal, ADP, Kraft Heinz, Caterpillar, GE Healthcare Technologies, Holdings, ECI Civilian Workers, PCE, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, Cruise Line Holdings, Uber Technologies, Lauder Companies, Mastercard, Generac, Jobs, PMI, Manufacturing, Exxon Mobil Locations: U.S, Chicago

☆ The big post-Fed rally could get tested in week ahead: 'A lot holds in the balance' of the next few days
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 42,000 this week for the first time ever, while the S & P 500 breached the 5,700 milestone, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-percentage point. "A lot holds in the balance of the next couple or few days," said Katie Stockton, founder at Fairlead Strategies. .SPX 5D mountain S & P 500 On Friday, the 30-stock Dow, the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each closed higher by more than 1% for the week. The breakout is "'pending confirmation,'" Stockton said. Overall, Stockton expects that the longer-term setup for the S & P 500 is "a bit overdone."

Persons: Katie Stockton, Stockton, That's, Sam Stovall, Gee, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Stovall Organizations: Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, Stockton, CFRA, Fed, Chicago, PMI, Richmond Fed, New, Micron Technology, Transportation, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Costco Wholesale, PCE Deflator, PCE Locations: . Kansas, Michigan

☆ Nvidia will be in the spotlight next week as Wall Street wraps up a tumultuous August
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia Wall Street is bullish heading into Nvidia's earnings results next week, figuring any hiccups to its next generation AI chips does little to dim the earnings potential of a company that essentially has a monopoly on the market. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate PCE to show increases of 0.2% month on month and 2.6% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street anticipates that stocks could go higher from here, though the road from now to the end of the year could be bumpy. Other notable earnings results include tech names Salesforce and CrowdStrike, as well as consumer names such as Campbell Soup, Dollar General and Ulta Beauty. Earnings: Nvidia , Bath & Body Works , J. M. Smucker , Salesforce , CrowdStrike , NetApp , HP Thursday Aug. 29 8:30 a.m.

Persons: Nvidia's, chipmaker, they've, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer, Kumar, Louis Navellier, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, FactSet, David Miller, Miller, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, He's, Campbell, Lululemon Organizations: Nvidia, Blackwell, Navellier, Associates, Federal Reserve, PCE, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, Catalyst Funds, Ulta, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Body, HP, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Chicago, Michigan

☆ Cramer's week ahead: Earnings from Micron, Walgreens and General Mills
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer guided investors through this week's most important Wall Street action, highlighting earnings reports from Micron , Walgreens and General Mills . Wednesday brings a slew of earnings reports, including Micron , General Mills , Levi Strauss , AeroVironment and Jefferies Financial . Cramer noted some segments that drive General Mills' business — including snacks, cereal and dough — could be vulnerable because of the rising popularity of weight loss drugs. Walgreens will report on Thursday, and Cramer said Wall Street doesn't have great expectations for the company. McCormick also reports that day, and Cramer said analysts are taking down price targets due to sluggish growth.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Mills, Cramer, else's, it's, General Mills, Levi Strauss, AeroVironment, Jefferies, Tim Wentworth, McCormick Organizations: Micron, Walgreens, Big Tech, Carnival, FedEx, Royal, General, Jefferies Locations: Royal Caribbean

☆ 3 signs the US economy is nearing a recession have flashed in the last week, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe US economy is edging precariously close to a recession, and it's flashed a handful of warning signs in just the last week that suggest a downturn is on the horizon, according to Société Générale. New manufacturing orders contracted in May, and overall manufacturing activity contracted for the 18th time over the last 18 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Advertisement"Although many may dismiss the importance of the manufacturing sector for the overall economy, it is undeniable that overall GDP ebbs and flows closely with it. SocGen isn't alone in sounding the alarm, and other economists say that high interest rates are finally working their way through the economy and depressing growth. New York Fed economists see a 52% chance the economy could slip into recession within the next 12 months.

Persons: —, it's, Société, Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, That's, SocGen isn't Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Institute for Supply Management, New York Fed

☆ A port-in-the-storm trade if the consumer continues to get pinched by rates and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The consumer, making up 70% of the U.S. economy, is being hit by higher interest rates and sticky inflation. Consumer spending, also known as personal consumption expenditures (PCE), typically represents about two-thirds of the U.S. GDP. While that is attributed to easing consumer demand for EVs, dealer inventories of ICE vehicles have recovered significantly since the pandemic. Away from consumer discretionary and towards consumer staples. The Consumer Staples Select Sector ETF (XLP) is trading 21 times trailing earnings and about 19.6 times forward earnings estimates versus 25.7 times trailing and 22.83 times forward for the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index.

Persons: there's, Tesla, Power Organizations: Starbucks, Investors, PPI, CPI, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ What will it take to get tech stocks rising again? An unemployment rate above 4%
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Analysts slashed the "Big Six" tech stocks' ratings to neutral from overweight, arguing that profit growth momentum could "collapse" over the next few quarters. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, what's, it's, We're, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, UBS Global Research

☆ Cramer: The 'proximate cause' of Super Micro's 23% drop Friday? Go back to March 8
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-21 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

At law school, we learned about "proximate cause," one of the few valuable concepts you can take from three years of drudgery. But was that the proximate cause? No, the real proximate cause, the one that's really at fault, was the February unemployment report, which came out on March 8. At the time, many thought the proximate cause of Nvidia's pirouette was the performance of two chipmaker peers. Surely those two updates couldn't be the proximate cause of the peak of Nvidia, right?

Persons: It's, Let's, pirouette, Matt Murphy, Jay Powell, Powell, Zeus, Biden, Jim Umpleby, ferociously, Jeff Marks, Morgan Stanley, haven't, Mills, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Ann Wang Organizations: Nvidia, hasn't, Marvell Technology, Club, Broadcom, Marvell, Federal, Caterpillar, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Apple, Procter, Gamble, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Micro Locations: It's, what's, Wells Fargo, Taipei, Taiwan

☆ Investors are hoping Big Tech earnings next week could revive a flagging bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The Big Tech earnings next week could revive a flagging market, or at least give investors direction into where stocks are going from here. Wall Street is hoping next week's megacap tech results will give investors insight into where the artificial intelligence trade is going from here, as a bounce in tech could lift the indexes. They're also hoping a slew consumer commentary will give investors insight into the state of the economy. However, he said any pullback in the tech names could give investors an opening to start "nibbling away" at additional exposure. Personal Income 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment NSA final Earnings: T. Rowe Price Group , Colgate-Palmolive , Exxon Mobil , Chevron , AbbVie , Phillips 66

Persons: Tesla, They're, Kim Forrest, Elon Musk, Emily Leveille, Scott Ladner, Ladner, Horizon's Ladner, FactSet, Baker Hughes, Philip Morris, Lockheed Martin, Raymond James Financial, Rowe Price, Phillips Organizations: Big Tech, Google, Microsoft, Bokeh, Nasdaq, Investors, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Thornburg Investment Management, Meta, Consumer, Visa, Chicago, Verizon Communications, Ameriprise, Truist, PMI, New, Richmond Fed, Enphase, Tesla, NextEra, Philip Morris International, Halliburton, United Parcel Service, PepsiCo, Lockheed, Raytheon Technologies, GE Aerospace, Grill, Business Machines, Lam Research, Ford Motor, Technology, Waste Management, Universal Health Services, Raymond, Boeing, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Mobile, Capital, Financial Corp, Intel, Western Digital, Comcast, American Airlines Group, Southwest Airlines, Valero Energy, Caterpillar, Tractor Supply, Royal Caribbean Group, GE, PCE, NSA, Rowe Price Group, Colgate, Palmolive, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Locations: China, Europe, U.S, NextEra Energy, Freeport, McMoRan, . Kansas, Michigan, AbbVie

☆ A crucial report Wednesday is expected to show little progress against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Scott Olson | Getty ImagesA closely watched Labor Department report due Wednesday is expected to show that not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation. To be sure, inflation has come down dramatically from its peak above 9% in June 2022. That showed headline inflation running at 2.5% and the core rate at 2.8% in February. For their part, markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect rate policy. "I don't see a whole lot here that is going to move things magically the way they want to go," North said.

Persons: Scott Olson, We're, Dan North, North, they've Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Allianz Trade North America, Fed, Commerce, PCE Locations: Chicago , Illinois

☆ Markets are hitting record highs. And economists like El-Erian and Krugman can't shake off their fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.

Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China

☆ China is the only major economy dealing with deflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China has been grappling with negative consumer prices for several months. No other major world economy faces deflation. China is the only major economy with negative consumer prices, dropping 0.8% year-over-year in January. China is the only major economy dealing with deflation. And China's ongoing real estate market slump has depressed the prices for household items and residences.

Persons: — Organizations: Service Locations: China, Beijing

☆ Dollar waits on U.S. inflation reading, bitcoin tops $60,000
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar was firm and the yen was headed for a monthly loss in the lead up to U.S. inflation data that could ruffle the interest rate outlook, while bitcoin surged above $60,000. The U.S. dollar was firm and the yen was headed for a monthly loss in the lead up to U.S. inflation data that could ruffle the interest rate outlook, while bitcoin surged above $60,000. Bitcoin is on a tear and topped $63,000 overnight as it rides a wave of cash rushing to new U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds. It is up more than 45% this month, its largest gain since December 2020 and a record high above $69,000 is within sight. The New Zealand dollar nursed losses on bets that rate hikes there are finished.

Persons: bitcoin, Masato Kanda, Sue Ann Lee, Kristina Clifton, Sterling Organizations: U.S, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Japan, U.S, Asia, Sao Paulo, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Europe

☆ Wall Street will try to maintain AI-fueled momentum in the final week of February, as inflation concerns linger
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

In the final week of February, Wall Street will strive to maintain its AI-fueled rally even as economic concerns linger and the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure is on deck. But many worry the writing is on the wall for these market leaders as economic and inflation risks linger. The 'lone cloud' of inflation The Fed's preferred inflation gauge will also be released in the week ahead. Investors are concerned that sticky inflation will mean that the Fed will hold onto its higher-for-longer interest rate policy. Next week will also be the final week of February, with stocks headed for another strong month of gains.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Patrick McDonough, Europe's, PGIM's McDonough, McDonough, Charlie Ashley, Dhaval Joshi, Joshi, Ashley, John Williams, TJX Cos Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Catalyst Funds, BCA Research, CPI, PPI, Dow, New, Dallas Fed, Fidelity National Information Services, Richmond Fed, eBay, Enterprise, Cruise Line Holdings, New York Federal Reserve Bank, York, Monster Beverage, Paramount Global, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Autodesk, Body, Hormel, PMI, Manufacturing Locations: U.S, Lowe's, Chicago, . Kansas, Michigan

☆ Japan's economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Clement Tan | In Clemtan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

An editorial picture of the Japan flag set against an economic trend graph and images associated with the stock market, finance and digital technology. Japan's economy unexpectedly contracted again in the October-December period, provisional government data showed Thursday. Provisional gross domestic product contracted 0.4% in the fourth quarter compared with a year ago, after contracting 2.9% in the July-September period. The GDP deflator in the fourth quarter stood at 3.8% on an annualized basis. The world's third-largest economy also contracted 0.1% in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, after contracting 0.4% in the third quarter from the second.

Organizations: Provisional Locations: Japan

☆ The Fed won't cut rates until after the 2024 election, Santander chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-01 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed won't cut rates until after the 2024 election, Santander's chief economist told Bloomberg. That's because inflation is likely to remain stubborn and cutting rates closer to the election date could be controversial. But according to Stanley, inflation numbers won't look as strong this year as they were toward the end of last year. But introducing the first rate cut closer to election day is trickier, and could be construed as a boost to incumbent president Joe Biden. And Stanley argued that based on their comments at the January meeting, the Fed doesn't seem close to being convinced about an early rate cut.

Persons: Santander's, —, Stephen Stanley, Stanley, We've, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell's Organizations: Bloomberg, Service

The overall personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2% for the month, as did the core index that omits food and energy costs. On an annual basis, the overall index remained unchanged at 2.6% while the core fell to 2.9% from 3.2% in November. The rise in the core index was the slowest since the spring of 2021. The core index is often cited by Fed officials as their barometer for inflation. “The meeting statement is likely to drop the hawkish bias from its forward guidance, but stop short of signaling rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Robert Frick, “, Lydia Boussour, Jerome Powell, Jeremy Schwartz, Ruchir Sharma Organizations: Federal, Economic, Fed, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve, Reserve, Nomura Securities, Nomura, Aichi Amemiya

☆ Jim Cramer says to stay with this Mexican beer powerhouse since its stock is set to benefit from a key catalyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch audio feature in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, Wells, bioprocessing, Estee Lauder, Gamble, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, CME, Broadcom, Nvidia, Meta, Procter, PCE, Jim Cramer's Charitable

☆ Morning Bid: Waller to Wall St, Fed's on the turn
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. But back in the markets, the Fed's policy pivot was all the rage as Treasury yields and dollar plunged anew. New York Fed chief John Williams said long-term inflation expectations were anchored, reassuring and "remarkably stable". Fed futures now have the first Fed rate cut of a quarter point fully priced for May and 110bps of rate cuts by year-end. Two-year Treasury yields plunged more than 15 basis points to four-month lows of 4.66% on Wednesday, with 10-year yields hitting their lowest since mid-September - a startling drop of more than 75bps in little over a month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Wall, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's Munger, Warren Buffett, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell, Waller, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Powell, Stocks, smartly, Hong, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Andrew Hauser, Blinken, Sergey Lavrov, Jane Merriman Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Waller . New York Fed, Chicago Fed, HK, Austria's, Holdings, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Bank of England, London, Russian, Foods, Intuit, Petco, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Berkshire, Waller ., China, Europe, Vienna, North Macedonia

☆ Wall Street is set to wrap up a strong month next week as stocks gun for new highs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Wall Street is set to wrap up a strong month next week as stocks gun for new highs heading into year end. The Nasdaq Composite is on pace to close out the month with a double-digit advance, up 10%. In contrast to September and October, which are typically weak periods for stocks, the seasonal patterns are now in favor of equities. This week, LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist pointed out that more than half, or 55%, of S & P 500 stocks closed above their 200-day moving average. It's set to show a rise of 0.2%, down from the 0.7% rise in the prior month, according to FactSet consensus estimates.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, That's, CFRA's Stovall, What's, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Morningstar's Dave Sekera, Sekera, Morningstar's Sekera, Salesforce, Gartner Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank, Treasury, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, New, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Intuit, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, PMI, Manufacturing, Dominion Energy, Cboe, Cardinal Health Locations: Chicago

☆ Here's when market experts think inflation will get back to normal
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

While many experts don't see inflation getting back to normal just yet, it could in a year or two. Consumer price inflation has been mostly slowing this year. Some experts see inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index being around 2% — the Fed's target year-over-year rate of price growth — by some time in 2024. Advertisement"We foresee headline and core CPI inflation around 2.2% y/y in Q4 2024," Daco said in his commentary. Goldman Sachs forecasts that measure is expected to cool off and see a 2.4% year-over-year increase in December 2024.

Persons: J.P, David Kelly, —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Kelly, ING's James Knightley, Sarah Foster's, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Mark Hamrick, Hamrick Organizations: Morgan, Service, Consumer, CPI, Morgan Asset Management, Bankrate, Federal Reserve, Federal, Business

That is more than double the 2.1% recorded in the second quarter and a testament to the strength of consumers. But he warned that stronger than expected economic data, particularly as regards the labor market, could leave the door open to even more pressure to raise rates or keep them higher for longer. "Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." Complicating matters is that the post-pandemic economy has not gone according to script where higher interest rates almost always blunt economic activity and cause a marked slowdown in the labor market. “The labor market is still adjusting, if it ever does, there’s a question whether retail will ever recover completely,” he says.

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, ”, George Calhoun, Calhoun, Bill Adams, –, speakership Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, Stevens Institute of Technology, University of, Comerica, “ Locations: U.S, of New York, Washington, Israel

If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank

☆ Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.

Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan

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