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LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia made two recent decisions that on the surface seem to indicate a steady crude oil market outlook but may point to a ticking up in concern over the state of demand. It's also likely that softer demand for refined products in Asia amid economic uncertainty led to Aramco's decision to keep the Arab Light OSP unchanged. The extension of the additional 1 million bpd cut is perhaps a tacit admission that crude oil demand isn't as strong as OPEC has been expecting. Asia's crude imports showed some resilience in October, rising to 27.36 million bpd from 26.60 million bpd in September, according to data compiled by LSEG. China, the world's biggest importer, saw arrivals of 11.90 million bpd in October, up from September's 11.18 million bpd, but both these months were down on August's 12.49 million bpd.
Persons: It's, Brent, Robert Birsel Organizations: Saudi Aramco, refiners, Aramco, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, OPEC, LSEG, world's, Saudi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi Arabia, Saudi, Oman, Dubai, Asia, Singapore, Israel, Gaza, Atlantic, refiners, China, Russia
The decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend the voluntary cuts drove up oil prices to over $90 a barrel in late September. Saudi crude exports to China rose to nearly 1.6 million bpd in September, up from 1.2 million bpd in August and 1.37 million bpd in July, Kpler data showed. U.S. CRUDE EXPORTS FALLAs the U.S. sees less crude imports, it has exported less oil to Europe. U.S. crude exports to Europe fell to 1.86 million bpd in September and 1.84 million bpd in August, from 2.01 million bpd in July, Kpler data showed. Tight supply led the premium for front-month Brent crude futures to rise to as much as $3.26 a barrel above the second month , the highest since 2022.
Persons: Lucy Nicholson, Matt Smith, Smith, refiners, Vortexa's Rohit Rathod, Adi Imsirovic, Brent, Stephanie Kelly, Alex Lawler, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Port, REUTERS, Brent, Organization of, Petroleum, Total U.S, Americas, Kpler, West, Surrey Clean Energy, CSIS, Midland, P, Insights, Thomson Locations: Port of Long Beach, Port of Los Angeles, Los Angeles , California, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Russia, Nigeria, Algeria, Saudi, China, Richmond , California, Los Angeles, Midland, Brent
The decline has been driven by weakness in producing fuels such as gasoline and naphtha, even as the margin on middle distillates has performed strongly. The trend for refining in Asia is increasingly characterised by strong margins for middle distillates, which are enough to offset weakness in gasoline and even losses for naphtha. Asia's total exports were 7.4 million metric tons in September, equivalent to about 1.85 million bpd, according to data from LSEG. Data from commodity analysts Kpler is also far from convincing, with just 660,000 metric tons of diesel shipments from China so far in October. Effectively, Asia's refiners are happy to suffer weak margins on fuels such as gasoline and naphtha because the profits on middle distillates are so high.
Persons: it's, refiners, Robert Birsel Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, China, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Kolkata, India, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Asia, Singapore, Dubai, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, China, Beijing
Will oil hit $100? It already did in some markets
  + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - With oil investors and traders focused on an oil-price rally that has come close to $100 a barrel, some grades of crude oil are already trading above that milestone, highlighting an expectation of tight supply. The outright price of Nigerian crude Qua Iboe surpassed $100 a barrel on Monday, according to LSEG data . "The overall situation is that Saudi Arabia and Russia are in solid control of the oil market," Schieldrop said. Brent oil futures, a global benchmark , traded as high as $94.89 on Monday and the related benchmark used for trading much of the world's physical cargoes, called dated Brent , stood just above $96 according to LSEG. Schieldrop said dated Brent is highly likely to move above $100 as "only noise is needed to bring it above."
Persons: Bjarne Schieldrop, Schieldrop, Brent, Giovanni Staunovo, Alex Lawler, David Evans Organizations: LSEG, UBS, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Swiss
A diesel fuel nozzle is seen attached to a car at a Shell petrol station in Berlin, Germany October 22, 2018. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch/ Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Global distillate fuel oil inventories remain much lower than normal for the time of year which is putting strong upward pressure on fuel prices. Initially, the upward pressure on distillate refining margins was masked by downward pressure on the underlying prices for crude oil. Since July, however, both crude prices and distillate refining margins have been rising, causing the total price of fuel to surge. Related columns:- U.S. diesel prices surge anticipating a soft landing (August 11, 2023)- Depleted U.S. diesel stocks attract hedge funds (July 20, 2023)- Global distillate stocks low despite industrial slowdown (June 13, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Fabrizio Bensch, John Kemp, Alexander Smith Organizations: Shell, REUTERS, OPEC ⁺, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Berlin, Germany, Singapore, New York, Saudi Arabia, Europe, North America, Russia, Ukraine, U.S, China
A general view of a crude oil importing port in Qingdao, Shandong province, November 9, 2008. Many of the newer, complex refineries in Asia prefer medium sour crude as it offers a higher yield of middle distillates such as diesel and jet fuel. ALTERED FLOWSThe higher prices for medium crude grades is impacting the ways in which crude is flowing around the world. China's imports from Brazil are expected to reach 29.07 million barrels in September, which would be the highest in three years, according to Kpler. While Saudi Arabia may have been successful in boosting oil prices, it is also disrupting the markets and altering physical crude flows.
Persons: Brent, China doesn't, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: United Arab Emirates, Moscow, Kpler, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Qingdao, Shandong province, LAUNCESTON, Australia, Asia, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Russia, East, Kuwait, Brent, Dubai, Ukraine, India, Iraq, China, Iran, Islamic Republic, United States, Brazil
Lower Kuwaiti exports follow cuts from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia that have pushed Brent prices close to $90 a barrel and left little wriggle room for Asia's refiners, reliant on the Middle East for more than two-thirds of crude imports. Chinese refiners, which have invested heavily in new plants designed to process sour oil, are especially exposed. Discounted oil from Russia has eased some of the pain, replacing some Kuwaiti supply, largely to China and India. Additionally, Kuwait's joint venture 230,000 bpd Duqm refinery in Oman is scheduled to start operation by end-2023, which could reduce Kuwaiti crude exports by a further 100,000 bpd to 200,000 bpd in 2024, the consultancies said. Formosa could replace Kuwaiti supply with grades such as Iraq's Basra Medium, Qatar's al-Shaheen and Oman crude, Lin said, adding it can also process U.S. light sweet crude.
Persons: Brent, Asia's, Janiv Shah, Sun Jianan, Al Zour, consultancies, KPC, Lin, al, James Forbes, Muyu Xu, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Kuwait Oil Tanker, Oil, Companies, Lower, Saudi, United Arab, Rystad Energy, P, Kuwait Petroleum Corp, Shenghong, Taiwan Formosa Petrochemical Corp, FGE, Dubai, Brent, Thomson Locations: Kuwait, Pier, Companies Kuwait, SINGAPORE, OPEC, Lower Kuwaiti, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, India, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Taiwan, Pakistan, Philippines, Thailand, Oman, PetroChina's, Guangdong, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Formosa, Basra, Shaheen, Brent, Dubai
Recovering profit margins may prompt complex refiners to maximise yields of transport fuels, causing excess naphtha output as a byproduct in a tepid petrochemical market and further depressing feedstock margins. Mandell expects margins to continue to perform well throughout the year heading into higher-demand crop planting season and into winter in the United States. "The healthy margins reflect the bull market for diesel combined with still strong gasoline cracks even if gasoline did weaken sharply on week. U.S. oil companies said during recent second quarter earnings presentations that strong global demand for fuels and low product inventories are driving robust profits. "Global capacity additions continue to progress slower than anticipated, and we believe that global demand growth will remain strong," Hennigan added.
Persons: Brian M, Mandell, Eugene Lindell, bullish HSFO, FGE's Lindell, Lindell, ENEOS, Phillips, Michael J, Hennigan, Mohi Narayan, Laura Sanicola, Ahmad Ghaddar, Jeslyn Lerh, Tony Munroe, Muralikumar Organizations: NEW, Phillips, Saudi, Reuters, Petronas, Hyundai, India's Reliance Industries, Oil, Marathon Petroleum, Marathon, Thomson Locations: NEW DELHI, WASHINGTON, Latin America, Asia, United States, Europe, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, U.S, New Delhi, Washington, London
Pakistan paid for its first Russian crude cargo in Chinese yuan. "How will it pay other lenders and how will it finance trade with China if it uses the low yuan reserves to pay for Russian oil?" However, Urals quality is a deterrent, as Pakistan's refineries cannot get as much gasoline and diesel out of Urals crude as they produce from Saudi and UAE crudes. Kpler's Katona expects Pakistan's liquidity issues and technical challenges to weigh on its appetite for Russian crude. "Russian imports into Pakistan will not grow into anything bigger than one cargo per month," he said.
Persons: Shahbaz Ashraf, Aadil Nakhoda, Nakhoda, Viktor Katona, Zahid Mir, Mir, PRL, Kpler's Katona, Ariba Shahid, Charlotte Greenfield, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul Organizations: Pakistan, United, FRIM Ventures, Karachi's Institute of Business Administration, Saudi, Pakistan Refinery Ltd, Reuters, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Pakistan, Ukraine, Russia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Islamabad, Moscow, China, PORT, Oman, Saudi Arab, Saudi, UAE, Karachi, Sudarshan, Singapore
Western sanctions on Russian crude following its invasion of Ukraine have upended those plans. Canadian barrels will struggle to compete, analysts and traders said. Chinese oil refiners PetroChina (601857.SS) and Sinopec (600028.SS) have bought and processed Canadian heavy crude in the past. Russia's Urals crude produces higher volumes of fuel and is significantly cheaper than heavy Canadian barrels, said one Calgary-based crude trader. "Today every crude in Asia is having a hard time competing with Russian crude," York said.
Persons: crudes, TMX, John Coleman, Wood Mackenzie, Skip York, York, Nia Williams, Florence Tan, David Gregorio Our Organizations: U.S ., Canadian, Sinclair, Puget Sound, U.S . Energy, Administration, Turner, Mason & Company, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S . West Coast, Asia, Ukraine, Canada, United States, Russia, Alberta, British, Pacific Coast, North America, China, India, Calgary, Canadian, Iraq, California, York, Moscow, Basra, British Columbia, Singapore
An example is the trade in physical cargoes from the Middle East where Unipec, the trading arm of top Chinese refiner Sinopec, has been selling heavily this month. There are several reasons for this, including the output cuts implemented by OPEC+, which effect more Middle East grades than Brent and related light crudes. Asia is expected to import 29.12 million bpd in June, a third consecutive monthly gain and up from 26.47 million bpd in May, according to Refinitiv. China's imports are estimated at 12.5 million bpd, up slightly from May's 12.16 million, while India is forecast to receive 5.24 million bpd, up from 4.74 million bpd in May. Asia's imports from the United States are expected to reach a record high of 2.58 million bpd in June, up from 1.66 million bpd the prior month.
Persons: Unipec, refiners, BRENT, Brent, Stephen Coates Organizations: Unipec, Refinitiv Oil Research, Saudi Aramco, OPEC, Saudi, Aramco, refiners, Brent, . West Texas, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Oman, Dubai, Middle East, Africa, Americas, Asia, Saudi, Brent, China, India, United States, Europe, North America
These comments represent just one of the contradictions in the current oil market. The desire for a stable oil market is extremely difficult to reconcile with being unpredictable. But the risk is that the increase isn't sustained, largely as a result of another oil market contradiction. It's another contradiction for the oil market to resolve as those three exporters are all under some form of Western sanctions. It may well be the case that the second half of this year sees a huge pick-up in crude oil demand.
Persons: Prince Abdulaziz bin, Brent, Sonali Paul Organizations: Organization of, Petroleum, Saudi Energy, Brent, International Energy Agency, SECOND, Saudi Aramco, Aramco, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, Saudi, OPEC, Vienna, Russia, China, India, Saudi Arabia
EU will go easy on Indian resale of Russian fuel
  + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( Shritama Bose | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Yet, the risk of an energy inflation resurgence makes a European Union ban on Russian oil reselling a tough call. The war in Ukraine has offered India an opportunity to boost purchases of discounted Russian oil. European imports of oil derivatives jumped to 200,000 barrels per day after the EU banned Russian crude products imports on Feb. 5 from 154,000 barrels previously, according to Kpler data. And New Delhi argues oil products substantially transformed in a third country cannot be subject to EU sanctions. loadingTo avoid an open clash with India, the EU could try to target European companies buying Russian-origin refined oil.
The country is planning to purchase Russian crude oil at a discount as high prices caused by geopolitical tensions have caused fuel prices to more than double in Pakistan. Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) will initially refine the Russian crude in a trial run, followed by Pak-Arab Refinery Limited (PARCO) and other refineries later. Pakistan is undertaking several measures, including raising fuel prices, to unlock a $1.1 billion tranche of aid from the International Monetary Fund. Fuel prices have jumped 143 rupees ($0.5046), or nearly 100%, in the last 12 months. Fuels including diesel became more expensive globally after Russia invaded Ukraine, which resulted in Western nations that consume large quantities of diesel imposing sanctions on Russian oil.
Oil-index publisher S&P Global Platts is adding U.S. WTI Midland crude to its dated Brent oil price assessment for June deliveries, which is now in focus as the market trades roughly a month ahead. Dated Brent is part of the wider Brent complex including physical cargoes, swaps and futures that is used to price millions of barrels of oil each day. The companies that run the North Sea crude streams, known as the operator, issue planned cargo loading lists which the industry monitors as an indication of supply. "We see no reason for issues," said Joel Hanley, global director, crude and fuel oil, at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Thomson Reuters competes with S&P Global Platts in providing news and data about the oil market.
India's crude imports from Russia are expected to reach a record high in April as Asia's second-biggest oil buyer increasingly turns away from its traditional suppliers in the Middle East. As Russian oil was increasingly sanctioned and shunned by European buyers and some in Asia, such as Japan, the steep discounts on offer led to India's refiners buying increasing volumes. The Middle East's share of India's imports likely dropped to 39.8% in April, according to Refinitiv, down from the 12-month average of 56%. While the buying of Russian crude is fairly broad-based among India's refiners, the biggest buyer is Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), which operates a 1.24 million bpd refinery complex in Jamnagar. Kpler data shows that this complex is expected to receive 20.87 million barrels of Russian crude in April, or about 30% of the total volume of India's imports.
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - European Union and G7 restrictions on Russian oil exports led to a global shift in oil flows, with Asian refiners soaking up discounted Russian crude, in part explaining the recent OPEC+ decision to curtail output further, the West's energy watchdog said on Friday. "The rapid upheaval in global crude trade flows, may in part explain the recent decision by OPEC+ to cut production," the IEA said. Unlike Asian refiners, which benefited from heavy discounts on Russian crude, European refiners have not been given any price incentive to process Middle East crudes, the IEA said. Bottlenecks and logistical constraints which prevent some European refiners from handling very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and a rise in Middle East crude differentials to the region partly explain why Europeans shunned Middle Eastern medium sour. Higher energy costs for reducing sulphur content in crude to produce cleaner fuels, a process known as hydrotreating, was another reason, the IEA said.
Oil prices jumped over 6% on Monday, with U.S. crude futures topping $80 per barrel. The U.S. pumped nearly 12.5 million bpd in January, according to the latest government data. U.S. cash crude prices strengthened on Monday, with Mars Sour gaining 50 cents to trade at a $1.40 discount to U.S. crude futures . U.S. seaborne crude exports last month hit 4.74 million bpd, the highest monthly total since at least January 2020, Vortexa data showed. "This development should bode well for already strong U.S. crude exports with increased medium- and heavy-sour Canadian crude exports from the U.S. in order to supply a global market which is already short on sour crude," said Rohit Rathod, senior oil market analyst at Vortexa.
NEW DELHI, March 27 (Reuters) - India's cabinet is set to adopt a gas panel report this week, which has recommended capping the price for most local gas at $6.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in April, two sources said on Monday. India last year set up the panel, led by energy expert Kirit Parikh, to review India's gas pricing formula to ensure fair prices to consumers after state-set prices of gas from old fields and a ceiling price for output from hard-to-access, difficult blocks rose to record highs. The current price of gas from old blocks is set at $8.57 and is valid from October to end-March. Oman and Dubai crudes make up on average 75.6% of India's crude basket, with 24.5% coming from dated Brent. India's current local gas prices are linked to global benchmarks and are revised twice a year in April and October.
These four charts show how the war has changed global energy markets over the past year. Here are four charts that capture the most striking changes that took hold in oil and gas markets over the past year. Russia has found other oil buyersBut Russia has still managed to find other buyers for its oil. India too has aggressively ramped up its purchases of Russian oil and now imports 1.2 million barrels each day, according to Vortexa. "The natural gas market has become even more global as demand for liquefied natural gas continues to rise," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Russian crude export volumes have held up since Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, but only because China and India have stepped in to buy steeply discounted Russian oil. But while China's crude imports have been rising, a greater share appears to have been captured by Russia. If imports from Russia are excluded, it shows that June imports were 6.97 million bpd and November's were 9.52 million bpd. The increase for imports from all sources in November over June was 2.67 million bpd, but the total ex-Russia was 2.55 million bpd. This raises the possibility that Russia's share of China's crude imports will rise even higher.
Russian crude export volumes have held up since Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, but only because China and India have stepped in to buy steeply discounted Russian oil. But while China's crude imports have been rising, a greater share appears to have been captured by Russia. If imports from Russia are excluded, it shows that June imports were 6.97 million bpd and November's were 9.52 million bpd. The increase for imports from all sources in November over June was 2.67 million bpd, but the total ex-Russia was 2.55 million bpd. This raises the possibility that Russia's share of China's crude imports will rise even higher.
The government's $1.1 billion share of oil revenue was up sharply from a combined $409 million in profit and royalties in 2021. Guyana is producing about 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and aims to raise output to 1.64 million bpd by end of the decade. Guyana's exports averaged 265,693 bpd last year, more than double the 100,645 bpd in 2021, according to shipping data from Refinitiv Eikon. Crude exports from Latin America's newest oil producer almost tripled in 2022, encouraged by rising production and solid demand in Europe in the aftermath of the Ukraine invasion. Total exports represented over $8 billion in gross oil revenue, based on Reuters calculations.
[1/2] An aerial view shows a storage facility owned by Lukoil company at the Arctic port of Varandei October 22, 2013. Arctic crude exports to India have steadily increased since May, with a record 6.67 million barrels loaded in November and 4.1 million barrels in December, Refinitiv data showed. At least three oil tankers that loaded Arctic crude in Murmansk port are now heading to China, Refinitiv data showed. Refinitiv listed the grades carried by these ships as Arco crude although one Chinese trader said there could be Varandey crude onboard. Oil tankers, carrying Russian Arctic crude, are passing Europe and the Middle East to head to China and IndiaReporting by Nidhi Verma in New Delhi, Muyu Xu and Florence Tan in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
But a plan to move heavy oil quickly from inventories at the Petroboscan joint venture with state-run company PDVSA is facing delays because of lack of dredging at Maracaibo Lake's navigation channel, the people said. Petroboscan has instructed vessels since to limit their draft after loading at the Bajo Grande oil terminal. That means about 250,000 barrels of Boscan heavy crude can move at a time through the channel linking Bajo Grande to the Caribbean Sea. In a sign that Chevron expects to expand operations quickly, the oil producer has begun advertising for Venezuelan contract administrators and cargo schedulers. The company wants to assemble a trading team to market oil from Venezuela and expand its role in the four projects.
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