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The basic theory behind prediction markets is that a lot of people with money on the line can better predict an outcome than any one expert. “Financial markets are generally pretty efficient, and the evidence suggests that the same is true of prediction markets,” Eric Zitzewitz, an economics professor at Dartmouth, tells me. The shares trade between $0 and $1, and once the event is resolved, shares tied to the correct outcome pay out a dollar. If you bought Trump shares on Monday, when they were 58 cents, you can expect to make 42 cents on the dollar. Later that fall, the popular betting market PredictIt gave Hillary Clinton an 82% chance of beating Donald Trump.
Persons: CNN Business ’, pollsters, Donald Trump’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, PredictIt, Eric Zitzewitz, , aren’t, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, You’re, Shayne Coplan, Harris, Coplan, ” Zitzewitz, , “ Brexit, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Clinton, Nate Silvers, Ann Selzers, FiveThirtyEight Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wednesday, , Dartmouth, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Trump, Bloomberg, CNBC, European Union Locations: New York, America, United Kingdom
Below, two gold experts share four ways investors can add gold to their portfolios. AdvertisementIn general, physical gold is a less liquid way to own the asset and is quite costly. Synthetic gold ETFs don't hold physical gold, investing instead in gold derivatives such as futures and options. In Milling-Stanley's opinion, investing in mining stocks instead of directly investing in gold erodes some of the metal's portfolio protection, as mining stocks behave more in line with the general equity market. Royalties limit the holder's exposure to the risks associated with directly investing in mines, such as exploration, development, and regulatory compliance.
Persons: , Jeff Muhlenkamp, they'll, George Milling, Stanley, Muhlenkamp Organizations: Service, Costco, Muhlenkamp & Company, State Street Global Advisors, Trust, MiniShares, Mining, Eagle Mines, Newmont Mining Corp, Wheaton Precious Metals Locations: Franco, Nevada
Most analysts think that September's top-performing stocks could continue their ascent. September is a traditionally dicey for stocks: It's the worst month of the year for the S & P 500 , according to the Stock Trader's Almanac . With October right around the corner, CNBC Pro used FactSet data to screen for this month's top-performing stocks in the S & P 500 and find out where analysts see them going next. Constellation Energy is up more than 30% on the month, making it September's second-highest performer in the S & P 500. Power company Vistra has surged nearly 196% in 2024, and it's the top performer in the S & P 500 this month.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, David Arcaro, Vistra, Jefferies, Julien Dumoulin, Smith, Raymond James, Brian Gesuale Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Analysts, Constellation Energy, Microsoft, Constellation, Energy, Software, Palantir Technologies, Oracle, Delta Air Lines Locations: Thursday's
CNN —A New York appeals court is set to hear arguments Thursday in former President Donald Trump’s bid to have the $454 million civil fraud judgment against him dismissed. The appellate hearing is yet another legal development for Trump playing out the same time as his presidential campaign hits the homestretch. In addition to the civil fraud appeal, Trump’s lawyers have argued to dismiss the guilty verdict in the New York criminal case, the federal election interference case in Washington, DC, and the E. Jean Carroll defamation verdict – all in the past month. The judgment against Trump was for $354 million, with an additional $100 million in interest that had accrued when the judge’s ruling was issued in February. “The award of $464 million in a case with no victims, no proven injuries, and no losses is not remotely defensible,” Trump’s lawyers wrote.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Jean Carroll, Arthur Engoron, Trump, Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump, Engoron, , , Organizations: CNN, Trump, New Locations: York, New York, Washington ,
Constellation Energy stock is still rising after the power company's landmark announcement last week that it plans to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. The operational risk to bring the plant back online in 2028 appears manageable, Morgan Stanley told clients in a note on Monday. Renewable energy and natural gas stocks could also indirectly benefit from nuclear deals, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd. Renewable stocks such as AES Corp. , NextEra Energy and First Solar could get a tailwind for the same reason, according to Morgan Stanley. CEO John Ketchum said the company is looking at restarting the Duane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, David Arcaro, Arcaro, Stephen Byrd, Byrd, NextEra, John Ketchum, Duane Arnold, Wells, Neil Kalton, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Constellation Energy, Constellation, Microsoft, Vistra Corp, Vistra, Public Service Enterprise Group, Tech, . Companies, GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, Mitsubishi Power, NRG Energy, AES Corp, NextEra Energy Locations: Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wells Fargo
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Constellation Energy to $313m implying more than 20% upside. 7 a.m.: DA Davidson downgrades Microsoft, cites diminishing AI lead DA Davidson believes that Microsoft has lost its edge over competitors in artificial intelligence. The investment firm downgraded shares of the tech giant to neutral from buy, although analyst Gil Luria maintained his $475 price target. This could begin to have a material impact on the company's returns beginning in 2025, the analyst wrote. Wells Fargo analyst Neil Kalton also hiked his price target on the stock to $300, implying nearly 18% upside ahead.
Persons: Raymond James, Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, DA Davidson, Davidson, Gil Luria, Luria, GitHub Copilot, — Lisa Kailai Han, Daniel Roeska, Roeska, Lisa Kailai Han, Ronald Josey, Josey, Meta, Atif Malik, Malik, Raymond James downgrades, Brian Gesuale, Gesuale, David Arcaro, Arcaro, Wells, Neil Kalton, — Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Constellation Energy, Motors, Microsoft, DA, Nvidia, Motors General Motors, General Motors, Hyundai, Citi Locations: Palantir, Friday's, U.S, 25e, GenAI
Dominion Energy is exploring the possibility of connecting a data center directly to a nuclear plant in Connecticut, as the tech sector hunts for carbon-free electricity to power artificial intelligence applications. "We're certainly open to the idea of a co-located data center," Dominion CEO Robert Blue told analysts on the company's second-quarter earnings call Thursday when asked about Millstone. The utility, headquartered in Richmond, serves northern Virginia, the world's largest data center market. Dominion has connected nine new data centers so far this year with plans for a total of 15 by the end 2024. Amazon Web Services bought a data center powered by a Talen Energy nuclear plant in Pennsylvania for $650 million in March.
Persons: Robert Blue, Blue Organizations: Dominion Energy, Millstone Power, Dominion, U.S . Dominion, Web Services, Energy, AWS, Constellation Energy, Wall Locations: Connecticut, Waterford , Connecticut, Millstone, U.S, Richmond, Virginia, Pennsylvania, East Coast
"Based on discussions with the Trump Organization, my understanding is that the Trump Organization does not intend to develop any estimations of value for any entity, the Trump Organization as a whole, or the guarantors' collateral," Jones wrote. Donald Trump no longer intends to calculate his own net worth for financial statements, this excerpt from a new report reveals. He has issued these net-worth statements — 20- to 30-page balance sheets formally called Statements of Financial Condition — since at least 2004. The firm declared the whole previous decade's worth of net-worth statements unreliable in 2022, saying it would stop preparing them. New York attorney general's officeThroughout the decade's worth of net-worth statements, Trump ignored generally accepted accounting principles, the AG and judge found.
Persons: , Letitia James, Donald Trump, Trump, Barbara Jones, Jones, Arthur Engoron, James, Donald Trump's, Forbes, it's, Engoron, James ' Organizations: Service, New York, Business, Trump Organization, Trump, Forbes, Buffalo Bills, Deutsche Bank, Mazars, Post Locations: Washington ,, Mazars USA, Miami, Chicago, Manhattan, . New York, New York
“The award of $464 million in a case with no victims, no proven injuries, and no losses is not remotely defensible,” Trump’s lawyers wrote. According to Trump’s attorneys, Trump personally should have been dismissed as a defendant. The Trump attorneys accused Engoron of enacting a “punitive” penalty against the former president that was unconstitutional. Just like at trial, Trump’s lawyers in particular took issue with a reference in Engoron’s summary judgment opinion that Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort was valued at $18 million. During the trial, Engoron said that he was not trying to assess the value of the property when he referenced the tax assessor value.
Persons: Donald Trump, Arthur Engoron, Trump, – Donald Trump Jr, Eric Trump –, , , Engoron, Ivanka Trump, Letitia James, Trump’s, Lago, Chris Kise, ” Kise Organizations: CNN, New, Trump Organization, Post, Trust, New York, Trump, Post Office Locations: York, New York, Washington ,, Manhattan, Lago
A Texas-based power company that only joined the S & P 500 two months ago is the third-best performing stock in the index this year, boosted by the same demand for everything connected to artificial intelligence. Fast forward to today and Vistra stock has soared 139% this year, adding $18.5 billion to its market cap, which now totals $32 billion, according to FactSet data. "We are always surprised when you see a move the size that we've seen, but I think it's been a long time building," Jim Burke, CEO of Vistra, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" Tuesday. Vistra also owns nuclear power plants, one of the most in-demand power sources in the 2024 market because reactors burn no fossil fuel and emit no greenhouse gases . Guggenheim has a buy rating on Vistra stock with a price target of $133, implying 44% upside from Wednesday's close of $92.31.
Persons: Jim Burke, CNBC's, we've, Burke, Vistra, Shahriar Pourreza, Pourreza, they'll, Guggenheim, Vistra hasn't, Mark Nelson, Joseph Dominguez, Constellation's, aren't Organizations: Vistra Corp, Texas Utilities Co, Dynegy Inc, Computer, Nvidia, Nuclear, Guggenheim Securities, Energy, Guggenheim, CNBC, Amazon Web Services, Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, Wall Street, Radiant Energy, Constellation Locations: Texas, Irving , Texas, Dallas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Energy Harbor, U.S, East Coast
Gox, the Japanese bitcoin exchange that collapsed into bankruptcy a decade ago, on Friday said that the company has begun to make payments in bitcoin and in bitcoin cash to some of its creditors. After declaring bankruptcy, 140,000 of the missing bitcoin were recovered — which means that roughly $9 billion worth of bitcoin will be returned to owners, in today's prices. Gox, Arkham Intelligence said Friday. Gox users, according to Arkham. A further $63.6 million of bitcoin was sent to an unknown counterparty, which Arkham said was "likely a listed repayments exchange."
Persons: Thomas Trutschel, Gox, bitcoin, Arkham Organizations: Photothek, Arkham Intelligence Locations: Mt, Gox, bitcoin, Tokyo, Arkham
Naro, a German fintech startup, has raised $3 million in pre-seed funding. Cologne-based Naro, founded in 2022, wants to take advantage of the boom in exchange-traded funds — or ETF — products in Europe to offer white-label services to various banks, funds, and brokers. Naro's pre-seed funding round was led by Berlin's La Famiglia alongside Discovery Ventures, plus investment from Robin Capital, Angel Invest, and various angels. Funding will go towards expanding the startup's current team of 10 staff as it looks to partner with potential customers looking to build out products within their existing infrastructure. Naro's business plan subsequently changed from its original slides, you can see a version of its pre-seed pitch deck below:
Persons: Chris Püllen, Püllen, Naro's, Berlin's La Organizations: Business, Trade Republic, Discovery Ventures, Robin Capital, Angel Invest, Credit Suisse Locations: Naro, Cologne, Europe, Germany
Say the premium is $2 on that $195 strike heading into earnings and I am sitting on 100 shares (remember every options contract represents 100 shares). If, however, shares hit the $195 strike, then I am, as the seller of that option contract, obligated to sell my shares at $195. To implement this strategy, you would sell a put at a higher strike price and then purchase another put as insurance at a lower strike price. In this case, we would be laying out $2 (paying $3 to buy the $195 strike and collecting $1 by selling the $190 strike). There are two high-level factors that determine an options price, intrinsic value and time value.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, It's, we'll, you'll, I've, it's, they're, we're, we've, We've, Jim Cramer, Steve Jobs, Tim Cook, Vega, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: CNBC, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Club, Nvidia, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Delta, New York City
People on the traditional grid could see lower costs, greater grid reliability, and less volatile energy prices. And the rate of residential installation is booming: A record 700,000 homeowners installed arrays in 2022, according to the trade group Solar Energy Industries Association. Henglein and Steets/GettyAnother option for homeowners is peer-to-peer energy trading. Users buy and sell electricity with any counterparty, whether it's a neighbor or the broader electricity market. There are, of course, concerns about the reliability of solar energy.
Persons: Localvolts, Kartik Menon, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Business Insider's, Solar Energy Industries Association, Solar Investment Tax, US Department of Energy, Goldman Locations: Localvolts, editorial.standards@insider.com, California , Texas, Florida, California, Arcadia, Washington, DC, Australia, Texas
[1/2] FILE PHOTO: A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen inside its headquarters in Mumbai, India, April 6, 2023. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas//o/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The central banks of India and England on Friday signed an agreement on information exchange for settlement of bond trades, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said. In India, bonds are settled through the Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL). The two central banks have also established a framework for the BoE to rely on the Indian central bank's regulatory and supervisory activities, while safeguarding the United Kingdom's financial stability, the RBI said. This meant that European banks had to settle their India-based trades through banks based in other jurisdictions.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, BoE, CCIL, Siddhi Nayak, Jayshree, Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Sohini Organizations: Bank of India, REUTERS, Rights, Reserve Bank of India, Clearing Corporation of India, Bank of England, United, European Securities and Markets Authority, Siddhi, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, England
Industry practice suggests that a large share of hedge funds trading in repo markets put up zero collateral, meaning they are fuelling activity using enormous amounts of cheap debt. A looming rule by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would expand the use of central clearing in the cash Treasury and repo market. SEC chair Gary Gensler recently promoted the benefits of central clearing and pointed to data showing high levels of repo trades transacted at zero haircuts. James Tabacchi, CEO of South Street Securities, called zero haircuts a "race to the bottom" and not healthy for markets. However, some market participants have voiced concerns that some of the proposed reforms could be a hurdle for some investors, potentially undermining the goal to improve liquidity and resilience in the Treasury market.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Christopher Clarke, Gary Gensler, James Tabacchi, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Industry, repo, North America Sovereign Financing, Morgan Securities, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Corporation, SEC, . Federal Reserve, South Street Securities, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Treasuries, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Carolina
The Bank of England is seen in the City of London, Britain, February 14, 2017. REUTERS/Hannah McKay Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Wednesday said results of stress tests on central counterparties (CCPs) showed continued resilience at the businesses, which help clear and settle trades in financial instruments and commodities essential for the global economy. "The results confirm the continued resilience of UK CCPs to market stress scenarios that are of equal and greater severity than the worst-ever historical market stresses," said Sarah Breeden, the BoE's Deputy Governor for Financial Stability. The stress tests covered three central counterparties which operate in Britain, ICE Clear Europe Limited (ICE.N), LCH Limited, a part of LSEG (LSEG.L), and LME Clear Limited, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (0388.HK). The BoE said it would use the findings "to support and inform its ongoing supervision and regulation of UK CCPs".
Persons: Hannah McKay, Sarah Breeden, BoE, William James, David Milliken, Sarah Young Organizations: of, City of, REUTERS, Bank of England, Financial Stability, ICE Clear Europe, LCH, LME Clear, Hong Kong Exchanges, Clearing, HK, LME, Thomson Locations: of England, City, City of London, Britain, LSEG, LME Base
Vodafone will struggle to get clean exit in Spain
  + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Toby Melville Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Vodafone’s (VOD.L) boss Margherita Della Valle is cleaning up the sprawling 21 billion pound telecom group, but it’s a tough job. A potentially messy exit in Spain illustrates the point. Della Valle lacks an obvious partner in the country: local giant Telefónica (TEF.MC) is too big, while rivals Orange (ORAN.PA) and MásMóvil are merging with one another. As a result, Vodafone may have found itself a potentially problematic counterparty for the Spanish business, which Della Valle has put under strategic review. Investors might be reassured that Della Valle is making things happen, but a clean break in Spain looks increasingly unlikely.
Persons: Toby Melville, Margherita Della Valle, Della Valle, Eamonn O’Hare, Expansión, Zegona, Pamela Barbaglia, Liam Proud, Streisand Neto Organizations: Vodafone, REUTERS, Reuters, Orange, Zegona Communications, Virgin Media, Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank, ING, Reuters Graphics Reuters, X, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Spain
Call option Rather than buying 100 shares of Apple at $180 each for a total of $18,000, you use an options contract. A single options contract always represents 100 shares. So with a call option, you get upside exposure with defined downside risk that is limited to the option premium. So, your $200 "investment" (the premium to buy the options contract) nets you a $200 profit. You are covered for all losses beyond the strike price with the break-even being the strike price, less the option contract premium.
Persons: we've, It's, hasn't, let's, Zev Fima, I've, I'm, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Apple, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: New York City
The stock market can be many things. However, the stock market stayed open. A move of a few percentage points in the underlying stock can amount to a double- or triple-digit percentage point increase in the options market. The "premium" is what the buyer pays upfront for the option contract. Rather than buy 100 shares of Apple at $180 each, which would cost $18,000, John decides to use an options contract.
Persons: We're, John, you've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Gamblers, Social, Bloomberg Intelligence, Apple, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Mbbirdy, Getty Locations: 0DTEs, Las Vegas
The maker of Tomb Raider video games, whose shares are traded in Stockholm, is working with Goldman Sachs and Aream & Co to explore a sale, the people said. Embracer is weighing selling the unit, which is known for first-person shooter game Borderlands, after receiving interest from third parties, two of the people said. Officials from Embracer and Goldman Sachs declined to comment. ⁠Embracer shares turned positive and spiked as much as 5% higher following the news. Embracer, majority owned by founder Wingefors, purchased Gearbox in February 2021 in a deal that valued the business at up to $1.4 billion at the time.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Aream, ⁠ Embracer, Embracer, Lars Wingefors, Wingefors, Amy, Jo Crowley, Anousha Sakoui, Jason Neely Organizations: U.S, Entertainment, Reuters, Raider, Aream, Embracer, Thomson Locations: Stockholm
UBS cost-cut gains are a double-edged sword
  + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, Aug 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - UBS’s (UBSG.S) acquisition of Credit Suisse looks increasingly good – maybe a little too good. There were three key questions for shareholders ahead of UBS’s delayed second-quarter results on Thursday, its first since completing the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse in June. And what would UBS do with Credit Suisse’s local business? He’s keeping Credit Suisse’s Swiss business, which allows him to establish a dominant position at home and wring out juicy cost savings. And while some Credit Suisse businesses are disappearing, Ermotti won’t mind.
Persons: Boss Sergio Ermotti, Ralph Hamers, UBS’s, Ermotti, it’s, Sergio Ermotti, Neil Unmack, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Credit Suisse, UBS, Credit, Suisse’s, Suisse, Swiss Competition, Thomson Locations: Suisse’s Swiss, Switzerland, Schweiz
The tanker Flex Artemis was in the South Atlantic and heading northeast on Thursday, according to Refinitiv vessel tracking. It had carried LNG from Yamal in Russia, according to a trader familiar with the matter, and had arrived in Argentine waters about July 14. The Flex Artemis is carrying around 160,000 cubic meters of LNG, according to Olumide Ajayi, senior LNG analyst at Refinitiv. Leo Kabouche, LNG market analyst at consultancy Energy Aspects, said warm weather in Argentina and the start of the Nestor Kirchner pipeline is likely reducing the call on LNG. Argentina turns away Gunvor-chartered LNG tanker, citing sanctions Argentina turns away Gunvor-chartered LNG tankerReporting by Marwa Rashad in London and Julia Payne in Brussels; additional reporting by Ron Bousso in London and Nicolas Misculin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Josie Kao and Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Sergio Massa, Gunvor, counterparty, Olumide Ajayi, Leo Kabouche, Nestor Kirchner, Marwa Rashad, Julia Payne, Ron Bousso, Nicolas Misculin, Josie Kao, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Energy, Argentina, Thomson Locations: Russia, France, Argentine, Yamal, Ukraine, Geneva, Argentina, Gunvor, London, Brussels, Buenos Aires
NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) - Large companies are spreading out their counterparty risk and increasing screening of their banking partners in response to the recent banking crisis that has been a "wake-up call", according to an industry survey to be released on Thursday. Multinational companies and those with sales overseas use banks, or counterparties to the transactions, to trade foreign exchange and hedge currency risk. "All of a sudden there's a wake-up call," said Eric Huttman, CEO at MillTechFX, the specialist currency arm of Millennium Global. Huttman said his firm has added dozens of clients since the banking crisis and all of them have spent more time asking about its counterparty selection process. "The broad questions that companies are asking are, is my banking partner sound and will they be there when I need them," said Dhargalkar.
Persons: Eric Huttman, Huttman, Amol Dhargalkar, Banks, Laura Matthews, Megan Davies, Muralikumar Organizations: YORK, MillTechFX, Millennium, UBS, Credit Suisse, Chatham Financial, Thomson Locations: North America, Europe, Swiss
Watchdog with teeth can help EU hunt unicorns
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Rebecca Christie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Yet the EU today is a long way from uniting its capital markets. By comparison, the United States has seven exchange groups, three listings exchanges and 16 trading exchanges, along with one clearing house and one depository. Bringing capital markets together through better regulation, as well as better market incentives, could keep the next generation of unicorns home. Follow @rebeccawire on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSEuropean Union leaders called for the EU to improve capital markets as part of a push for competitiveness at summits in March and June. Capital markets union is an EU endeavour launched in 2014 as a long-term project to boost investment across borders.
Persons: , Austria’s i5invest, Backes, Magdalena Rzeczkowska, Nadia Calviño, ESMA, ” Calviño, won’t, centralisation, Francesco Guerrera, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, EU, ABC Fitness Solutions, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Canada, Berlin Brands Group, European Securities and Markets Authority, European, Central, Union, European Commission, Capital, Thomson Locations: BRUSSELS, Europe, China, Ukraine, Arkansas, London, Switzerland, United States, IPOs, Belgian, U.S, Paris, spillovers, Luxembourg, Poland, Brussels, EU, wean
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