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Is the vibecession about to end?
  + stars: | 2024-11-29 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Optimism surged post-2016 election, with small businesses planning to hire more employees. Yes, that's a portmanteau of vibes and expansion, and it's the upbeat version of its better-known cousin, the vibecession. Advertisement"Small business owners lean Republican," said Oliver Allen, a senior US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a November 12 note. Goldman Sachs"After Donald Trump was elected the 45th President in November 2016, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) small business optimism index skyrocketed. "We expect an improving small business operating environment will boost the sentiment and spending of SMBs in 2025 and lift the earnings and valuation of stocks with revenues tied to that spending."
Persons: Kyla Scanlon, National Bureau of Economic Research hasn't, there's, Donald Trump's, Oliver Allen, Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, David Kostin, they're, Daniel Zhao, Louis, Zhao Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Chief US, Economics, Workers, Glassdoor, Louis Fed Locations: St
Why it might be easier to change jobs next year
  + stars: | 2024-11-24 | by ( Tim Paradis | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +6 min
Come 2025, you might find it's a tad easier to change jobs. If the job market doesn't strengthen as hoped, Zhao said some workers' frustrations over their 9-to-5 could rise. AdvertisementYet "if the job market heats up, then we'll likely see a wave of turnover as workers vote with their feet," Zhao said. Verizon has some 105,000 employees and typically fills about 20,000 jobs a year through a mix of internal and external candidates. "I don't think that it's going to be any easier to get the best of the best to work here," Schelling said.
Persons: Lisa Simon, Simon, Sean Barry, Barry, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, Michelle Volberg, she's, Volberg, Christina Schelling, Schelling, Tanya Moore, West, Moore Organizations: Labor, Revelio Labs, Allstate, Workers, Verizon, West Monroe Locations: West Monroe
It is very unusual for Chinese businesspeople to take public aim at the government and those who have done so have often faced repercussions. In particular, Pinduoduo’s pricing system has done great harm to China’s brands and its industries,” he was quoted as saying by state-owned media outlet The Paper. In further remarks from the same press conference that were not widely reported by state media, Zhong singled out the Chinese government for not doing more to stop the trend. CNN has reached out to Nongfu Springs and PDD (PDD) for comment. A worker prepares to transfer packages after sorting at a warehouse for an e-commerce company in Beijing on November 11, 2024.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Zhong Shanshan, Zhong, Pinduoduo, Alibaba, Jack Ma, Ma, Colin Huang, Wang Zhao, Zhong’s, Huang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, PDD Holdings, Sina Technology, CNN, Ant Group, Alibaba, Getty, Bloomberg Locations: China, Hong Kong, Beijing, AFP
A sharp drop in mortgage rates brought homebuyers off the fence in October after a slow summer. Sales were 2.9% higher than October of last year, marking the first annual increase in more than three years. While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”There were 1.37 million units for sale at the end of October, an increase of 19.1% from October 2023. That is still high historically, but lower mortgage rates likely caused that share to drop. Mortgage rates are much higher now, at 7.05% on the 30-year fixed.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, Chen Zhao Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mortgage News, Fed Locations: Redfin
AdvertisementBillionaire Ken Griffin cautioned the incoming Trump administration from adopting extreme policies. Speaking in New York Thursday, Griffin lauded the work of immigrants and warned against cutting taxes. AdvertisementGriffin's plea to Marc RowanGriffin is not the first Wall Street leader to push for a more moderate immigration and tax policy approach. AdvertisementRoman said that tax cuts and tariffs will increase the government deficit, leaving the Trump administration with less room for error in choosing policies. In a Reuters article two days after the election, an unnamed Wall Street leader hoped Trump's aides would rein in extreme policies that could increase the deficit.
Persons: Ken Griffin, Griffin, Marc Rowan, Donald Trump, I'm, Peng Zhao, Marc Rowan Griffin, Manny Roman, Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker, Trump, Trump's, Rowan Organizations: Trump, Treasury, Billionaire Citadel, Republican Party, Economic, of New, Citadel Securities, Reuters Locations: New York, of New York, American, Illinois, California, Florida
Brewing worker resentment could fuel a 2025 quitting spree
  + stars: | 2024-11-20 | by ( Jennifer Liu | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The job market could be poised for a fresh wave of people quitting, according to a new Glassdoor report. Employees' satisfaction in their career opportunities has been on the decline since 2022 after people settled into new roles following the post-pandemic hiring boom known as the Great Resignation. "People don't feel like the job market is working for them right now, even if you hear economists and policymakers talk about how strong and resilient the job market is," Glassdoor senior economist Daniel Zhao tells CNBC Make It. "The desire [to quit] is there, but the opportunities aren't," Zhao says. For example, some sectors, like housing, real estate and tech, could be buoyed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, Zhao says.
Persons: Daniel Zhao, Zhao, Terry Petzold, Donald Trump Organizations: CNBC, Fox Search, White
Mortgage rates were forecast to go down in 2025. Expectations of higher inflation and more government debt under Trump have helped mortgage rates rise in recent weeks. Why mortgage rates rose ahead of the election — and are still high nowMortgage rates went down a lot in September, with 30-year rates dropping near 6%, according to Freddie Mac. How Trump's policies could lead to higher mortgage ratesZhao says that right now it's "nearly impossible" to predict where mortgage rates will go in 2025. More supply would help moderate home price growth, improving affordability even if mortgage rates remain high.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump's, , Freddie Mac, they're, Chen Zhao, Melissa Cohn, Trump, Zhao, Kamala Harris, Cohn Organizations: Trump, Service, Bond, William, Mortgage, Analytics
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Separately, the estate of crypto exchange FTX sued Binance and its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao, over a "fraudulent" share deal. Some think the rally is getting ahead of itself, writes CNBC Pro's Fred Imbert. A Wall Street analyst pointed out that, according to history, one ostensibly bullish sign actually portends retreats in the near term.
Persons: FTX, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Donald Trump, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, NatWest, Metrics, Trust, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Trump, U.S
The project at Leshan is dubbed the Longwei, or Dragon Might, Project and is also referred to as the Nuclear Power Development Project in documents. This satellite image from Planet Labs PBC shows the Nuclear Power Institute of China's Site No. The site is under the control of the Nuclear Power Institute of China, a subsidiary of the China National Nuclear Corporation, which is tasked with reactor engineering research and testing. The research does not, however, provide clues as to when a Chinese nuclear-powered carrier could be built and become operational, she said. Matthew Funaiole, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ China Power Project, said he doubts China’s next carrier will be nuclear-powered.
Persons: , Tong Zhao, Jeffrey Lewis, Jamie Withorne, Sarah Laderman, ” “, Laderman, Li Gang, Yuan Huazhi, China’s, , Matthew Funaiole, Nick Childs, ” Childs, Childs, Zhao, ” Zhao, Xi Jinping Organizations: Thailand AP, Associated Press, , Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Washington , D.C, Middlebury Institute of International Studies, Nuclear, Development, China’s Defense Ministry, Foreign, Ministry, Planet Labs PBC, Nuclear Power Institute, Middlebury, Nuclear Power Institute of China, China National Nuclear Corporation, China Ship Research, Design Center, Development Project, AP, Oslo Nuclear, Open Nuclear Network, PAX, Shandong, Xinhua, US Navy, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy, Center for Strategic, Studies, Power, Liberation Army Navy’s, International Institute for Strategic Studies, US, International, Pacific, People’s Liberation Army Navy, Defense Department Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, China, Beijing, United States, France, Washington ,, California, Leshan, Sichuan, Mucheng Township, Sichuan Province, Mucheng, Sichuan’s, Chengdu, Soviet Union, Oslo, Vienna, Sanya, Hainan Province, Soviet, Liaoning, Shandong, Fujian, Taiwan, Pacific, South China, China’s
The estate of collapsed crypto exchange FTX has filed a suit against Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao in an effort to wrest back at least $1.76 billion, citing a "fraudulent" share deal. The FTX estate alleges that the share repurchase was funded by FTX's Alameda Research division through a combination of the company's and Binance's exchange tokens, as well as Binance's dollar-pegged stablecoin. Binance denies the allegations, saying in an emailed statement: "The claims are meritless, and we will vigorously defend ourselves." That same month, Binance's Zhao pleaded guilty to charges of violating the Bank Secrecy Act for failing to put in motion an effective anti-money laundering program and for breaching U.S. economic sanctions. In another post cited, he said: "As part of Binance's exit from FTX equity last year, Binance received roughly $2.1 billion USD equivalent in cash (BUSD and FTT).
Persons: FTX, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, Sam Bankman, Binance, Fried, Binance's Zhao, LUNA Organizations: Binance, Shires, FTX's Alameda Research Locations: Delaware, FTX, Alameda
Two crypto moguls' joint wealth rose by about $15 billion on the back of Trump's election victory. Binance's Chaopeng Zhao and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong added about $12 billion and $2.6 billion each. AdvertisementTwo cryptocurrency tycoons saw a near-$15 billion boost to their combined wealth on Wednesday as Donald Trump won the presidential election. One result was the world's 12 richest people grew more than $70 billion richer in a single day, per Bloomberg's wealth rankings. Exclude him and his 11 peers have grown a combined $505 billion richer this year — a figure that exceeds the market value of Oracle ($502 billion).
Persons: Binance's Chaopeng Zhao, Brian Armstrong, , Donald Trump, Changpeng Zhao, Zhao, Elon, Binance, Elon Musk, Anthony Harvey, Kamala Harris, Musk, Larry Ellison, Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, Jeff Bezos, Bernard Arnault Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Trump, Ethereum, Republican, Democratic, Oracle Locations: Solana, Berkshire
“Trump’s return to power will certainly bring greater opportunities and greater risks for China,” said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy analyst in Shanghai. AFP/Getty ImagesChallenges and opportunitiesBut Trump’s “America First” agenda and transactional worldview may also play in Beijing’s favor, experts say. “Although Beijing is deeply concerned about the unpredictability of Trump’s China policy, it reminds itself that challenges also bring opportunities,” said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “If the US and Russia ease relations, it could create greater daylight between Russia and China, effectively driving a wedge between them.” Liu said. “From everything he has said, it’s clear that Trump considers China, not Russia, as the main adversary.”
Persons: Donald Trump, , , Shen Dingli, Xi Jinping, Trump, Xi, “ Trump, Liu Dongshu, Jim Watson, Larry Hu, Kamala Harris, Daniel Russel, Russel, Barack Obama, Tong Zhao, Joe Biden, Arleigh Burke, Halsey, Ismael Martinez, China’s, he’s, ” Zhao, Vladimir Putin, Liu, ” Liu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Foreign, Chinese Foreign Ministry, City University of Hong, Getty, Huawei, Investment, Macquarie, Republican, Asia Society Policy Institute, Shipping, Carnegie Endowment, International, NATO, Asian Nato, Trump, US Navy, U.S . Navy, AP, Russia Beijing, Communist Party, Industry, Wall Street Locations: Hong Kong, China, United States, Beijing, Shanghai, America, City University of Hong Kong, Lago, Florida, AFP, Asia, Lianyungang, China's Jiangsu, Europe, Western, Russia, Asian, Taiwan Strait, AP Taiwan, Taiwan, Washington, Ukraine
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao left prison in September. He said he wasn't recognized at first, but inmates and guards soon sought crypto tips. He told Bloomberg in his first post-prison interview about how he spent his days. Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, told Bloomberg in his first interview since being released in September. He said he told inquiring inmates and prison guards: "I don't have access to any information.
Persons: Changpeng Zhao, wasn't, , Zhao, Binance, That's, he's, Donald Trump's Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, ISIS, Giggle Academy, Zhao Locations: California —
Gen Zs have found a more authentic resource when researching colleges: college content creators. College content creators give study advice and post snippets of day-to-day school life on TikTok. Helaine ZhaoThe rise of college content creatorsAs of October 29, there were 2.3 million TikTok videos under the hashtag "college life." The popularity of college content on TikTok has introduced a slew of content creators covering their school life. AdvertisementAt the same time, college content can also change how prospective students view a college for the worst, Greg Kaplan, a college advisor, said.
Persons: Zs, , Ryan Fuhrman's, TikTok, Z, Zers, Helaine Zhao, Zhao, Elise Pham, Pham, Lillian Zhang, UC Berkeley vlogs, Zhang, I've, Lucie Vágnerová, Greg Kaplan, Kaplan, Ryan Fuhrman, Fuhrman, Franklin Antonio, Franklin Antonio Hall — Organizations: Service, New York University, University of California, University of Southern, Google, Harvard, Stanford, Yale, Ultimate Ivy League, University of California Berkeley, UC Berkeley, Big Tech, BKT Education, Kaplan Educational, UCSD, NYU, USC, California State University, Franklin, Franklin Antonio Hall Locations: NYU, University of Southern California, Berkeley, Brooklyn, Fuhrman, San Diego, San Jose, La Jolla
BEIJING, China — China will offer the Taliban tariff-free access to its vast construction, energy and consumer sectors, Beijing’s envoy to Afghanistan said on Thursday, as the ailing resource-rich but diplomatically-isolated regime looks to build up its markets. “China will offer Afghanistan zero-tariff treatment for 100% tariff lines,” Zhao Xing, Chinese ambassador to Afghanistan, wrote on his official X account late on Thursday, above a photo of him meeting acting deputy prime minister Abdul Kabir. The country exported no commodities to China last year, the data shows, but Zhao has regularly posted photos of him meeting Taliban officials responsible for mining, petroleum, trade and regional connectivity since his appointment last September. “In the Horn of Africa, China’s Special Envoy Xue Bing said that the best way to resolve security and terrorism challenges is through economic development. I think they are bringing that same mindset to Afghanistan,” said Eric Orlander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project.
Persons: Zhao Xing, Abdul Kabir, Zhao, Xue Bing, , Eric Orlander Organizations: Locations: BEIJING, China, Afghanistan, Beijing, Xinjiang, Pakistan, of Africa
The remains of an unidentified missile, which Ukrainian authorities claimed to be made in North Korea, is seen at a site of a Russian strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine on January 2. China, Russia and Iran have also held four joint naval drills since 2019, and China is by far Iran’s largest energy buyer. Beijing also carefully manages its relationship with North Korea – which is almost wholly economically and diplomatically dependent on China. “Russia, North Korea, Iran is the type of grouping that China least wants to openly associate itself with,” said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. An Iranian military boat patrols ahead of the start of a joint naval drill of Iran, Russia and China in the Indian Ocean in May.
Persons: They’ve, Lloyd Austin, George W, Bush’s, , Kim Jong, Kim, there’s, what’s, Bashar al, Assad, Israel –, Xi Jinping, Putin, Alex Gabuev, Sofiia Gatilova, Xi, Loup, , Tong Zhao, Zhao, Sydney Seiler Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Korean, Moscow’s, US, North, West, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, China’s, National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, Carnegie Endowment, International Peace, Iranian Army, AP, UN, National Defense Strategy, NATO, Center for Strategic, International Studies Locations: Hong Kong, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Tehran, China, Iran, North Korea, Washington, Europe, Pacific, Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan, Iraq, South Korea, Pyongyang, Syria, Beijing, Moscow, Berlin, Kharkiv, Kazan, Israel, Jean, South, Taiwan, “ Russia, , Iranian, Asia, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, North Asia, Sydney
Chinese smartphone company Honor on Wednesday revealed new AI features. U.S. sanctions cut Huawei off from Google, prompting the Chinese company to launch its own operating system, HarmonyOS, in 2019. Telecommunications giant Huawei on Tuesday launched an upgrade to its HarmonyOS system that eliminated reliance on the Google-created Android operating system. The new AI features are slated for release on Honor's forthcoming Magic 7 smartphone, due for launch on Oct. 30. Chinese home appliance and smartphone company Xiaomi will also launch a new phone this month that uses Qualcomm's Snapdragon Elite 8 chip.
Persons: George Zhao, Toby Zhu, Canalys Organizations: Huawei, Google, Telecommunications, Baidu, Qualcomm, CNBC Locations: Shanghai, China
Ken Griffin's market maker, Citadel Securities, is revamping its core trading infrastructure. AdvertisementIn 2023, Citadel Securities COO of technology, Jeff Maurone, was meeting with senior leaders to discuss technology priorities for the year. I almost look at it as the stretching of business," Woods told Business Insider. Building Citadel Securities' trading infrastructure of the futureIn the last few years, Citadel Securities pushed into credit trading, expanded its rates franchise, and introduced an institutional options offering. Maurone's team supports Citadel Securities' technology organization, and he manages a team of 15 people.
Persons: Ken Griffin's, Josh Woods, Jeff Maurone, , Maurone, Woods, Matt Culek, Peng Zhao, Jim Esposito Organizations: Citadel Securities, Service, Securities, McKinsey, Deloitte, COOs, Citadel Securities Each Locations: Asia Pacific, EMEA, COOs —, New York, Jeff's
China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Friday reported third-quarter GDP growth of 4.6% year on year, slightly exceeding the 4.5% expected by economists polled by Reuters. “The national economy showed positive signs of growth in September,” Sheng Laiyun, the bureau’s deputy commissioner, said at the news conference, according to CNBC’s translation of the Chinese. Other data also released on Friday, such as retail sales and industrial production, also beat expectations, a hopeful sign for the world’s second-largest economy. “Despite the multitude of challenges, China’s economy is not incurable as some would suggest,” Xu added. Authorities continued to dip feed more stimulus measures throughout this month amid low consumer sentiment and a flagging property sector.
Persons: ” Sheng Laiyun, , Tianchen Xu, ” Xu, Finance Lan Organizations: China’s National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Economist Intelligence Unit, China’s, Finance, Ministry Locations: China’s, Beijing
The skyline of the central business district in Beijing on August 13, 2019. (Photo by WANG Zhao / AFP)Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Friday, as investors awaited key economic data from China and assessed Japan's inflation numbers. China's third-quarter GDP is expected to come in at 4.5%, as estimated by economists in a Reuters poll, compared with 4.7% growth in the prior quarter. China is set to release its house prices index for September at 9:30 a.m. local time. Japan's headline inflation for September came in at 2.5%, while core CPI — which excludes fresh food prices — rose 2.4% year on year compared with Reuters estimates of 2.3%.
Persons: WANG Zhao Locations: Beijing, AFP, Asia, Pacific, China
Staple’s plight highlights the unusually difficult situation of young Americans trying to kick-start their careers, even as the broader US economy remains in good shape. Indeed, the job market overall remains in decent shape. A ‘victim of circumstance’Everyday Americans are always at the mercy of the economy — whether it’s navigating difficulties such as high inflation and a recession, or a red-hot job market that benefits workers. Having a tough time landing that first job, in part because of broader economic forces, can have lasting consequences. “For young workers, their first few years out of school are very formative for their careers.
Persons: Kirsten Staple, ” Staple, That’s, , , Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, , they’re, Daniel Zhao, Zhao, Millennials, Jonathon Courtney, hasn’t, Courtney, I’ve, ” Courtney, who’ve, there’s, Catherine Dugoni Camille Larsen Catherine Dugoni, “ It’s, ” Dugoni, isn’t Organizations: Washington CNN, University of Texas, Labor Department, CNN, Federal Reserve, Employers, Glassdoor, University of Houston Locations: San Antonio, El Paso , Texas, , Houston, Sacramento , California, San Francisco
China's National Bureau of Statistics on Friday reported third-quarter GDP growth of 4.6% year on year, slightly exceeding the 4.5% expected by economists polled by Reuters. "The national economy showed positive signs of growth in September," Sheng Laiyun, the bureau's deputy commissioner, said at the press conference, according to CNBC's translation of the Chinese. Other data also released on Friday, such as retail sales and industrial production, had also beat expectations, a hopeful sign for the world's second largest economy. Beijing has faced growing public scrutiny over its ability to meet its own annual growth target of "around 5%." Amid low consumer sentiment and a flagging property sector, the Chinese government has intensified stimulus measures in recent weeks in an effort to boost its lackluster economy.
Persons: Sheng Laiyun, Tianchen Xu Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Economist Intelligence Unit Locations: China, Beijing
Owning a home in high-climate risk states like Florida is becoming tougher amid rising costs. Experts say the next few years will be crucial for housing policy in the wake of severe climate disasters. On the one hand, buyers are facing rising costs as insurance premiums skyrocket. Still, a big advantage to owning a home is the ability to lock in housing costs. That's especially true after climate disasters, according to one study that looked at rent prices following hurricanes in US coastal states.
Persons: Hurricane Milton, homebuyers, Chen Zhao, Jung Hyun Choi, Choi, Katrina, Zhao Organizations: Service, Institute's, Finance Policy Center Locations: Florida, Hurricane, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, it's
China's Ministry of Finance, pictured here in Beijing in 2021, is refunding taxes and cutting fees to support economic growth. China's Finance Minister Lan Fo'an is set to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on Saturday local time on "intensifying" fiscal stimulus policies, the country's State Council Information Office said. Authorities are likely to affirm that at the press conference on Saturday, Zhao said. At the time, Chinese major indexes began to rally, surging over 25% as investors cheered on the slate of stimulus measures. Lan Fo'an, China's Minister of Finance, attends a press conference during the second session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 6, 2024.
Persons: Cong, Lan Fo'an, NDRC, Zheng Shanjie, Chen Zhao, CNBC's, Zhao, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Wang Zhao Organizations: of Finance, Bloomberg, Getty, China's Finance, Beijing, Investors, National Development, Reform, Authorities, China's Ministry, Finance, China's, National People's Congress, Afp Locations: Beijing, country's, Shanghai, Asia
Additional disruptions from Hurricane Milton complicate the data collection for October's jobs report. To stimulate hiring, the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in September, and the jobs report will strongly inform its path forward. "I wouldn't expect these events to materially change how Americans view the economy before the election," DeAntonio said. For example, it noted in its release last week Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana in early September, "had no discernible effect" on the employment data it collected. Any effects from the hurricanes could lead to an October jobs report that shows a more pessimistic view of the economy than underlying conditions would suggest.
Persons: Helene, Milton, , Hurricane, Hurricane Helene, Hurricane Milton, Dante DeAntonio, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Daniel Zhao, DeAntonio, Francine, Guy Berger Organizations: Service, Hurricanes, Southern, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan's, Department, Labor, of Labor, Labor Statistics, Boeing, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employees, Glass Institute Locations: Florida, North Carolina, Hurricane, Louisiana
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