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Soon, Trump’s ability to fix America’s affordability crisis will collide head-on with another, perhaps more prominent, campaign trail promise: Mass deportations. And perhaps no industry relies on undocumented workers more than the food and agriculture industries. “The only question is how high prices will go.”Zandi noted that food prices could also be pushed higher by another element of the Trump agenda: Massive tariffs. The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment about how mass deportations would impact food prices. The current immigration system does not allow for green cards for farm workers.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, you’re, , Chuck Conner, don’t, Conner, Fred Leitz, Leitz, Mark Zandi, , ” Zandi, Trump’s, It’s, Rick Naerebout, that’s, Biden, Scott Bessent, ” Bessent, Axios, Trump “, David Paul Morris, Zeke Hernandez, “ It’s, Hernandez, Chloe East, Letiz, Naerebout, “ aren’t, ” Robert Lynch, Lynch, , ” Naerebout Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, National Council of Farmer Cooperatives, US Department of Agriculture, Center for American Progress, Moody’s, Trump, United, Idaho Dairymen’s Association, Wall, Bloomberg, Getty, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Immigration, University of Colorado Denver, The Hamilton, Brookings Institution, Washington College, American Locations: New York, United States, Michigan, Idaho, San Francisco, Brookings, Maryland
"We are seeing [deflation] to some extent," said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics. Energy prices and electronicsGasoline prices are also "way down," Zandi said. Consumers "could get more relief there because global oil prices are soft," Zandi said. Food prices are also generally underpinned by their own unique supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said. Lower energy prices can also take pressure off food prices, as it costs less to transport and distribute food to grocery store shelves.
Persons: Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, women's outerwear, they've, Zandi, They've, Donald Trump's, they'd, Bacon Organizations: North, Capital Economics, U.S, Moody's, Finance, CPI, Bank of America, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Consumers Locations: U.S, North America, China
Trump's plan would reduce average after-tax incomes by almost 3%, according to the tax think tank. "If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer," Daniele said in September. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests a 10% across-the-board tariff would be roughly equivalent to a $320 billion tax on consumers, Cross said. "The administration could take tariff revenue and redistribute to households via tax cuts in some form or another," explained Pugliese of Wells Fargo. However, the typical U.S. household would still lose $2,600 a year from Trump's tariff plan, even after accounting for an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, according to an analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Biden, Trump, There's, Mark Zandi, didn't, Mike Pugliese, Moody's, Philip Daniele, Daniele, Olivia Cross, Cross Organizations: Getty, NBC, Trump, CNBC, Tax, National Retail Federation, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, AutoZone, Capital Economics, U.S ., Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Grand Rapids , Michigan, Mexico, Wells Fargo, U.S, North America
Former President Donald Trump's universal tariff proposals could cause prices to skyrocket on clothing, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods, according to a new report from the National Retail Federation. Trump has said he would impose a 10% or 20% tariff on all imports across the board. In both cases, the NRF found that the impact of Trump's tariffs would be "dramatic" double-digit percentage price spikes in nearly all six retail categories that the trade group examined. The report found that the greatest price spikes could occur for toys: between 36.3% and 55.8%. The report found that the more expensive retail goods would lead to a $46 billion decrease in purchasing power, if Trump imposes both universal tariffs and especially high China rates.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Mark Zandi Organizations: Abercrombie, Fitch, National Retail Federation, Republican, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNBC Locations: Manhattan, New York City, China, Mexico, Raleigh , North Carolina
Here's what's at stake for equity markets ahead of the election
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's what's at stake for equity markets ahead of the electionMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss each candidate's housing plans, which candidate will be better for the economy, and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi
A zero percent inflation target might be popular, but it would represent a sharp departure – one that mainstream economists warn would backfire. “Stable inflation is an oxymoron because it means it’s not stable,” Shelton told CNN in a recent interview. In fact, one reason the Fed set its inflation target at 2% is because it’s safely away from that deflation-danger zone. A zero inflation target would mean a path right on the edge. But even some of Shelton’s biggest fans are opposed to her embrace of a zero-inflation target.
Persons: Judy Shelton, Donald Trump, It’s, ” Shelton, Shelton, Trump, , Mark Zandi, Zandi, Justin Wolfers, Kamala Harris, it’s, Wolfers, Bill English, , ” Trump, Stephen Moore, Jerome Powell, Moore, Powell, Kevin Hassett, Reagan, Arthur Laffer, ” Moore, CNN’s KFile, CNN he’s, he’d, Elon, , haven’t, James Grant Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, Federal Reserve Board, Moody’s, University of Michigan, Yale University, Heritage Foundation, Trump White House, Trump Locations: New York
Pretty much since they arrived, Mr. Muir and his family have been trying and failing to find a single-family house for no more than $500,000. “I’m like, ‘Wow, I thought this would be a more affordable place to live,’” said Mr. Muir, who is 44 and works in financial services. They disagree, however, about whether Ms. Harris’s plan would actually do that. (Economists also agree that former President Donald J. Trump’s housing plan, which aims to free up housing by deporting immigrants, would probably make the housing crisis worse by devastating the construction work force). Ms. Harris’s main challenge will be convincing them to build.
Persons: Luke Muir, Muir, ’ ”, “ It’s, Kamala Harris, Harris’s, Donald J, Mark Zandi, Harris, , Ed Pinto, playbook, Jason Morris, Withey Morris Baugh, Ms, , Mr Organizations: American Enterprise Institute, Arizona Legislature Locations: Phoenix, Louisiana, San Diego, Maricopa County, California, Arizona
However, prices for many physical goods have deflated as supply-and-demand dynamics return to normal following pandemic-era contortions. "Outside of goods prices, I don't think we'll see price cuts," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. That served to weaken demand, which also pushed down prices, economists said. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for imported goods, economists said. Energy, food and consumer electronicsOutside of imported goods, consumers may also see a "normalization" of prices in food and energy, Zandi said.
Persons: Jeff Greenberg, Mark Zandi, Zandi, women's outerwear, Sarah House Organizations: Universal, Getty, Finance, Social Security, Vehicles, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics ., U.S . Federal, Fed, U.S, Energy Locations: Wells Fargo, U.S
Prices fall at the gas pumpAnnual food inflation is 'fairly tame'Frederic J. "What happens there can really move the dial when it comes to overall inflation and core inflation." CPI shelter inflation — which includes rental prices and an equivalent measure for homeowners — has gradually declined but remained stubbornly high. In September, shelter inflation throttled back on a monthly basis, to 0.2% from 0.5% in August. "Shelter inflation is now definitively moderating," Zandi said.
Persons: David Paul Morris, It's, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Frederic J, Brown, , That's, that's Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, AFP, CPI Locations: Wells Fargo
Nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. "It was a very good report across every indicator in there," said Aaron Sojourner, a senior researcher at the W.E. As they barnstorm across battleground states, Harris and Trump paint dueling pictures of the U.S. labor market. Jim Watson | AFP | Getty ImagesThe jobs report adds to a flurry of good economic news in recent weeks, with metrics that could potentially amount to the best economic upswing in decades. Following the jobs report blowout, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out last week at a fresh all-time high of 42,352.75.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, payrolls, Dow, Aaron Sojourner, Harris, Trump, Jim Watson, I've, Mark Zandi, Biden, Clinton, Justin Wolfers, stoking Organizations: . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, Trump, CBS, Republican, Ryder Center for Health, Physical Education, Saginaw Valley State University, AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, chipmaker Micron Technology, Oracle Locations: U.S, Michigan, America, Saginaw, Saginaw , Michigan
Nothing does more damage than higher oil prices, warns Moody's
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNothing does more damage than higher oil prices, warns Moody'sMark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, says a surge in oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East could pose a serious threat to the US & global economy, presenting a real conundrum to the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Moody's Mark Zandi Organizations: Federal Reserve
An aerial picture taken on September 28, 2024, shows storm damage in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in Valdosta, Georgia. The devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene across the southeastern United States could cost upwards of $34 billion, according to early estimates from Moody's Analytics. The Moody's report, released as Helene was making landfall last week, estimated that property damage could cost between $15 billion to $26 billion. And the resulting economic slowdown could cost $5 billion to $8 billion in productivity losses. Only about 6% of U.S. homeowners have flood insurance through either a private company or the congressionally funded National Flood Insurance Program, despite 90% of natural disasters involving flooding, he said.
Persons: Hurricane Helene, Helene, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Mark Friedlander, Friedlander, Joe Biden, Wiley Nickel, Florida Republican Sen, Rick Scott, Mark Amodei Organizations: Moody's, CNBC, Insurance, Flood Insurance, Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, Disaster Relief Fund, Capitol, Florida Republican Locations: Hurricane, Valdosta , Georgia, United States, Florida , Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee, Appalachia, Washington
The paper represents the most comprehensive analysis to date on the combined impact of Trump’s trade, immigration and Fed proposals. In that scenario, employment would be 9% lower than baseline by 2028 and inflation would surge to 9.3% by 2026. “So-called economists and experts doubted President Trump’s economic plans in his first term. That means the same factory workers Trump says he is trying to help would be hurt the most. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who was nominated by Trump in 2017, cautioned against any effort to interfere with Fed independence.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , Warwick McKibbin, Megan Hogan, Marcus Noland, they’ll, ” Karoline Leavitt, Trump’s, Kamala Harris, Harris, ” Trump, McKibbin, Mark Zandi, , Jerome Powell, ” Powell, We’re Organizations: CNN, Republican, Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, Trump, Security, , Peterson, Moody’s, Bloomberg Locations: United States, China, America, Georgia, Michigan, outflows
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomic data shows 'tenuous' resilience: Moody's chief economist Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss what new jobs numbers say about the economy, the Fed's playbook for rate cuts, and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi, Squawk
CNBC Daily Open: Hoping for a half-point cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Without any warning signs flashing red, it's difficult for the Fed to justify lowering rates by more than a quarter point. That's why some economists and analysts hope the Fed will cut by half a point. "But I suspect they'll cut 25," Zandi added.
Persons: Anna Moneymaker, Mark Zandi, they'll, Zandi, Hope, Jeff Cox, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow, Moody's Locations: Washington , DC, U.S
CNBC Daily Open: Hoping for a 50-basis-point cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Without any warning signs flashing red, it's difficult for the Fed to justify lowering rates by more than a quarter point. That's why some economists and analysts hope the Fed will cut by half a point. "But I suspect they'll cut 25," Zandi added.
Persons: Anna Moneymaker, Mark Zandi, they'll, Zandi, Hope, Jeff Cox, Hakyung Kim, Samantha Subin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Dow, Moody's Locations: Washington , DC, U.S
But a series of data points showing worsening economic conditions has made some analysts believe a 0.5% cut is more likely — and perhaps even necessary. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Fed Chair Jay Powell said in a speech last month. “A (0.5%) cut is usually done in emergencies,” like the Covid-19 pandemic, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s financial group. Mortgage interest rates have hit their lowest level since February 2023, while auto loan rates are also falling. A 0.5% cut would more directly affect rates tied to the fed funds rate, including credit cards, home equity lines of credit and small-business loans.
Persons: Steve Liesman, Jay Powell, Bill Dudley, ” Dudley, Preston Mui, Mui, , , Mark Zandi, Greg McBride, ” McBride Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Wall, Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Bloomberg News, Fed, Bankrate Locations: Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, America
The meeting wraps up Wednesday afternoon, with the release of the Fed's rate decision coming at 2 p.m. "I hope they cut 50 basis points, but I suspect they'll cut 25. Here's a breakdown of what's on tap:The rate waitThe FOMC has been holding its benchmark fed funds rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% since it last hiked in July 2023. The 'dot plot'Perhaps just as important as the rate cut will be the signals meeting participants send about where they expect rates to go from here. In June, FOMC members penciled in just one rate cut through the end of the year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin Jr, Andrew Harnik, they'll, Mark Zandi, that's, Tom Simons, Zandi, Robert Kaplan, There'll, Seema Shah, FOMC, Moody's, Goldman Sachs, Powell presser, Goldman, Simons Organizations: Federal Reserve, Committee, Moody's, Wall, Jefferies, Dallas Fed, CNBC, Asset Management Locations: Washington , DC
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets are poised for a 50bps cut, but this is a 'much more cautious Fed', says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody’s, joins 'Fast Money' to talk what he would like to see from the Federal Reserve moving forward.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi Organizations: Markets, Federal Reserve
The Trump policy that freaks out economists the most
  + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump wants to spend trillions of dollars on tax cuts. “It’s enormously protectionist and terrible economic policy,” said Holtz-Eakin, who served as an economic adviser to former President George H.W. The cost of the Trump tax cutsTrump has called for extending his signature 2017 tax cuts, which expire next year if no action is taken by Congress. Trump has argued that extending the tax cuts will boost the economy, create jobs and help families. The Trump campaign has not detailed significant spending cuts or tax hikes to offset these tax cuts.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Kamala Harris, Goldman, , ” David Kelly, Kelly, “ It’s, , ’ Trump, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, Holtz, George H.W, Bush, GOP Sen, John McCain, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Karoline Leavitt, they’ll, ” Leavitt, Trump’s, ” Harris, “ Donald Trump, ” Brian Nelson, Harris, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, ” Trump, Joe Biden, Penn, Penn Wharton, The Trump, CNN’s Katie Lobosco Organizations: New, New York CNN, Asset Management, CNN, America, New York Economic Club, American, GOP, Moody’s, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, US Customs, Louis Federal Reserve, Biden, Congress, Princeton University, University of Chicago, Harvard University, US Treasury Department, Penn Wharton Model, Social Security Locations: New York, United States, China, America
You can opt-out at any time by visiting our Preferences page or by clicking "unsubscribe" at the bottom of the email. download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. What works is to flood the market with supply: lots of oil means lower oil prices, lots of labor means lower labor prices, lots of whatever means lower prices — it's a simple supply and demand curve. Obviously, this is a populist political gesture — a way to offer something to voters upset about high food prices. Krugman noted that many states including Texas have laws banning businesses from overcharging for essentials like food and fuel during disasters.
Persons: , Kamala Harris, Harris, Lindsay Owens, Donald Trump, Mark Zandi, Kamala, Dave Ramsey, It's, cramp, Kevin O'Leary, there's, That's, There's, O'Leary, it's, Kamala Harris's, Gus Ruelas, Paul Krugman, I've, Richard Nixon, Nicolas Maduro, Krugman, Brian Cornell, Cornell Organizations: Service, Democratic, Business, Federal, CBS, Republican, York Post, Fox, Netflix, Fox News, Laureate, Princeton, New York Times, CNBC Locations: York, America, Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Soviet Union, Texas, overcharging
When people say they're concerned about "the economy," it can mean a lot of things — grocery prices, gas prices, housing prices, healthcare. For one thing, it's not clear that voters think Harris, as vice president, has had much involvement in Biden's economic policies. People remember the Trump economy as a better time — interest rates were lower, prices were lower, houses seemed more affordable. AdvertisementThe task for Harris now is to lay out an economic identity and agenda before others beat her to it. The Trump campaign and the GOP are trying to tie her to the negative feelings around the Biden economy, to affordability and inflation.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, Harris, Kamala, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton's, Jim Carville, , it's, Biden, Trump, Harris — Trump, Evan Roth Smith, Smith, Eli Yokley, Mark Zandi, Tim Walz, Minnesota, Yokley, Whit Ayres, Donald Trump's, she's, He's, Bharat Ramamurti, Emily Stewart Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Financial Times, University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, Trump, Biden, Lake Research Partners, Democrat, Voters, Morning, Federal, Moody's, House, Democrats, National Economic, GOP, Business Locations: China, California, Las Vegas
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a campaign rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, U.S., July 31, 2024. It requires steady leadership — the kind President Trump delivered for four years." Trump published at least nine separate posts on Truth Social Monday, blaming the stock market slump on the administration's policies under President Joe Biden and Harris. "THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET," Trump wrote in an all-caps Truth Social post, "BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN, AND THAT WILL DRIVE THE MARKET UP." "Former President Trump is the first to do that," Zandi added.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Kamala, KAMALA, Trump, Ohio Sen, JD Vance, Joe Biden, Dow, Biden, Mark Zandi, Zandi Organizations: Republican, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve, Trump, Democratic, TRUMP, CNBC, BIDEN, WIN, Voters Locations: Harrisburg , Pennsylvania, U.S
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Monday blamed Vice President Kamala Harris for the stock market's dramatic plunge, months after claiming he deserved credit for the market's then-record upswing. The night before, as Asian markets fell dramatically, the former president wrote, "STOCK MARKETS CRASHING. "THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET BECAUSE MY POLLS AGAINST BIDEN ARE SO GOOD THAT INVESTORS ARE PROJECTING THAT I WILL WIN," he wrote on Truth Social that month. "To take us back to a time when insurance companies had the power to deny people with preexisting conditions," the vice president said.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Kamala, Crooked Joe, Trump, Harris, KAMALA DOESN'T, BIDEN, Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Biden, We're, CNBC's Kevin Breuninger Organizations: Republican, Monday, Democratic, Dow Jones Industrial, TRUMP, BIDEN, WIN, CNBC, CBS, Trump Locations: United States, Atlanta, Georgia, America
The economy is still 'resilient,' says Moody's Mark Zandi
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe economy is still 'resilient,' says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody's Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his expectations from the Fed, whether the odds of a recession have risen, and more.
Persons: Mark Zandi Mark Zandi
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