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☆ The US economy is in for a double shock if Trump is elected president, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Trump's policies could leave the US economy with two major challenges, Paul Krugman said. Krugman pointed to Trump's economic plan, which economists have described as inflationary. Trump's deportation plans could also hit the economy, given that immigration has boosted the job market. AdvertisementThe US could be in for twin shocks if Trump becomes president for a second time, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said. Trump's general economic plan is also widely thought to be more inflationary than Harris's.

Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman, —, Trump, Harris Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Financial Times, University of Chicago, American Immigration, New York Times Locations: York

☆ Delinquent debt is piling up. Here's why it's not a reason to worry about the US consumer, according to BofA CEO Brian Moynihan.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

There's no need to worry about consumers falling behind on debt payments, BofA's Brian Moynihan said. Deliquency rates on credit card and auto loans are normalizing and are close to 2019 levels. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementConsumers are falling behind on their credit card and auto loan payments, but that's actually not such a big deal for the economy, according to Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. Late payments on consumer credit card loans have ticked slightly higher over the last quarter, with 9.1% of credit card balances and 8% of car loans transitioning into delinquency, according to the New York Fed's latest Household Debt and Credit Survey.

Persons: BofA's Brian Moynihan, —, that's, Brian Moynihan, Moynihan shrugged Organizations: Service, Bank of America, CNBC, Credit Survey, Business Locations: York

Economists like to say the cure for high prices is high prices. In other words, consumers eventually start to hold back on spending when they are faced with increasing costs. On Monday, the New York Federal Reserve reported that consumers' three-year inflation outlook hit a record low. Many economists credit the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates starting in the spring of 2022 with helping to curb the upswing. It is that last factor that the Federal Reserve is keenly focused on.

Persons: “, Andrew Jassy, Wells Fargo, Mark Hamrick, ” Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve's, New York Federal Reserve, Federal, Fed, BLS, Gallup, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, York

☆ Nvidia swings again — plus, an industrial name tied to the data center boom gets an heir-apparent
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.

Persons: Jim Cramer, It's, Blackwell, Nvidia's, Eaton, Paulo Ruiz, Ruiz, Craig Arnold, Arnold, We're, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Nvidia, UBS, Club, Fed, PPI, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: York

☆ Does college still pay? Workers without a degree are doing better than they have in years, report finds
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-23 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

watch nowOutcomes for workers without a degree are improvingIn fact, young adults without a college degree are doing better than they have in years, according to Pew's analysis of government data. Since then, circumstances — and earnings — have continued to rise for workers with just a high school diploma or some college. Improving job opportunities for "new-collar" workers without a degree continues to drive more students away from college. Finishing college puts workers on track to earn a median of $2.8 million over their lifetimes, compared with $1.6 million if they only had a high school diploma, Georgetown's report found. Adults with at least a bachelor's degree report higher financial well-being than adults with lower levels of education, according to a Federal Reserve study on economic well-being of U.S. households.

Persons: Fry, —, Hafeez Lakhani, There's, Pew, Paul Steiner Organizations: Labor, Georgetown University Center, Education, Federal, College, ECMC Group, Virginia's Fairfax County Public Schools, Community Education Locations: New York, York, U.S, Virginia's Fairfax County

☆ Why Americans' confidence in finding a new job is tanking even as the labor market is humming along
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Why Americans might be getting worried about the job marketIn some ways, Americans' growing pessimism in the job market is perplexing. That's because the job market has become more challenging than it was a couple of years ago, when the Great Resignation was at its peak. So, it's possible that some Americans in certain industries are facing a job market where openings are far from abundant. For example, there's some evidence that the job market for high-wage roles has cooled over the past year. Julia Pollak, the chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told Business Insider earlier this month after April's labor market figures were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that it is "no longer a white-hot labor market" or a job "candidate's market in every industry where workers can get whatever they want."

Persons: —, they'd, hasn't, What's, Joanne Hsu, Julia Pollak Organizations: Service, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, Business, NY, of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, New, Fed, LinkedIn, NY Fed, University of, Labor Locations: York

☆ The consumer slowdown is here and its flashing a recession warning for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.

Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in April, more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Wholesale prices jumped more than expected in April, putting up another potential roadblock to interest rate cuts anytime soon. Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core PPI also increased 0.5% compared to the 0.2% Dow Jones estimate. On a year-over-year basis, wholesale inflation rose 2.2%, also the highest in a year. Core PPI inflation was at 2.4%, the biggest annual move since August 2023. Services prices boosted the wholesale inflation reading, rising 0.6% and accounting for about three-quarters of the headline gain, while the final demand goods index increased 0.4%.

Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Reuters . Stock, BLS, Federal Reserve, Commerce, York

☆ Americans with a college degree say they'd need at least a $100K salary to change jobs. But roles that pay in that range are getting harder to find.
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

As of the most recent March data, the average reservation wage for Americans with a college degree rose to a survey-high of $99,081, up from $97,270 in March 2023 and $81,758 in March 2020. It means that not as many Americans are landing new jobs that pay in the six-figure range. The average reservation wage for people without a degree was $68,390, up from $59,683 in March 2023 and $48,778 in March 2020. The average reservation wage among all respondents was $81,822, up from $75,811 and $61,377 in March 2020. AdvertisementAre you struggling to find a six-figure job?

Persons: —, it's Organizations: Service, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, of Labor Statistics, New, New York Fed Locations: York, New York

☆ Ron Insana: A market shake-up could be around the corner as inflation remains sticky
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Here's a question on the minds of investors amid recent hotter-than-anticipated inflation readings and this powerful rally: Are we due for a stock market scare? However, as of late, there have been some early warning signs that the declines in inflation may be slowing. Other areas have also sent up some flags that could adversely affect stocks and bonds in the short run. However, it is unwise to ignore what market signals are suggesting, at least in the short run. But in the short run, we should remain on heightened alert for changes in this year's outlook.

Persons: It's, I'm, John Maynard Keynes, Ron Insana Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Federal Reserve, West Texas, Atlanta Federal, CNBC, Financial Partners Locations: York

☆ Nearly everyone has given up on their recession call, and that makes the outlook 'dangerously reminiscent' of 2007, SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Recession views are dangerously similar to those in 2007, SocGen's Albert Edwards said. Soft landing or no landing outlooks are growing on Wall Street as the US appears on solid economic footing. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Those signs appear lost on many other market commentators, who have dialed back their recession views in the last few months. "All this is (dangerously) reminiscent of 2007, when all around were telling me I was wrong and should give up calling that much-delayed recession," he later added.

Persons: SocGen's Albert Edwards, Edwards, —, Société, Albert Edwards, That's, Doom, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Chicago, York Fed's Survey, Consumer, National Federation of Independent Business, National Association of Business, Fed, Investor Locations: York

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 and Dow slide from record highs: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures also inched down 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slipped just 0.03%. During Monday's main trading session, the S&P 500 lost 0.32%, pulling back from its record high from last week that was powered by megacap tech stocks. "There's a lot of momentum, but I'm worried about [the S&P 500 at] 20 times earnings, and that the Fed's not going to live up to [rate] cut expectations. And I don't see how we get double-digit earnings growth," Doll said on CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime" on Monday. On the economic front Tuesday, Wall Street will be keeping an eye out for the New York Fed's household debt and credit report for the fourth quarter.

Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, Bob Doll, Doll, — I'm, Loretta Mester, Susan Collins, Eli Lilly, Amgen Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Palantir Technologies, NXP, Crossmark, Investments, New, Cleveland Fed, Boston Fed, Boeing, Spirit, DuPont, Grill, Ford Locations: New York

☆ It's time for the Fed to cut interest rates and bring relief to Americans who 'cannot afford to pay rent,' Elizabeth Warren says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sen. Elizabeth Warren joined some of her colleagues in pushing for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. AdvertisementAs Americans grapple with high housing costs, a group of Democratic lawmakers is urging the Federal Reserve to implement relief as soon as possible. While rent costs have decreased slightly over the past few months, "high interest rates mean higher mortgage rates for landlords, who may pass off these costs in the form of rent hikes for their tenants," the Democrats wrote. Powell has previously acknowledged the impact of interest rate increases on housing costs. "The Fed has already signaled its willingness to cut rates, and the market has responded accordingly," the Democrats wrote.

Persons: Sen, Elizabeth Warren, —, — John Hickenlooper, Jacky Rosen, Sheldon Whitehouse, Jerome Powell, Powell, they'll Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Democratic, Harvard's, for Housing Studies Locations: York

☆ Stock futures fall slightly on Sunday evening with Wall Street riding a four-week winning streak
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures dipped on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to build on four straight positive weeks for the equity market. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 38 points, or 0.1%. The rally has come despite warnings from some U.S. retailers that consumer spending is weakening. "The New York Fed's latest household survey shows that a record-high share of consumers are saying that it is much harder to obtain credit ... On Monday, new home sales and the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey are due out.

Persons: Torsten Slok Organizations: Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Black, Apollo Global Management, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Locations: York

☆ Morning Bid: AI buzzes but market shrugs at Nvidia beat
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly before the closing bell as the market takes a significant dip in New York, U.S., February 25, 2020. Remarkably, Nvidia managed to vault the sky-high bar for quarterly earnings, revenue and projections yet again in its latest update overnight. Bond volatility (.MOVE) has also fallen to two-month lows, while currency market 'vol' (.DBCVIX) is plumbing 20-month lows. CONCERN OVER HOME SALES, HOLIDAY SEASON SALESNews of a drop in U.S. existing home sales last month to a 13-year low was perhaps as important as the Fed minutes - as was warnings from more major U.S. retailers, this time Best Buy and Nordstrom, about sticky holiday season sales and the need for discounting. The dollar (.DXY) was a touch higher on Wednesday, meantime, with most overseas stock markets firmer too.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, thrall, OpenAI, Sam Altman, Changpeng Zhao, October's, Jeremy Hunt's, underperformed, Jeremy Hunt, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Nvidia, Federal, Nordstrom, University of Michigan, Bank of Canada, Treasury, Deere, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, yearend, York, Beijing

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation on the ropes, shutdown averted
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. Much like then, the sheer scale of the yield swoon has stoked bond volatility gauges (.MOVE) too. What's more, a quarter point rate cut by May is now 80% priced and 100bps of easing through 2024 is now baked in. U.S. corporate news stays on retail later as Target reports earnings, following a beat by Home Depot on Tuesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Xi Jinping's, Joe Biden, Russell, Austan Goolsbee, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett, Michael Barr, Thomas Barkin, Jonathan Haskel, Xi Jinping, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Chicago Fed, Bank of America, Home Depot, Berkshire, General Motors, Procter, Gamble, Richmond Fed, Bank of England, APEC, Cisco Systems, Palo Alto Networks, Reuters, NFIB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, UK's, York, San Francisco

☆ Morning Bid: Murky US inflation picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

According to consensus forecasts at least, U.S. headline inflation is expected to have retreated sharply again in October back toward midyear lows around 3.3%. But underlying 'core' inflation is expected to stay stickier at an unchanged annual rate of 4.1% last month and still more than twice the Fed's target. But the Fed may want to hang tough long enough into a slowing economy to ensure that inflation is squeezed back to its 2% goal. And perhaps the negative tilt on October core inflation going into today's release leaves more room for a positive surprise. The International Energy Agency on Tuesday raised its oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next despite the weakening economic picture.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Biden, Xi, Shunichi Suzuki, Philip Jefferson, Loretta Mester, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Huw Pill, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, New, Bank of America's, Treasury, International Energy Agency, U.S, Economic Cooperation, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Japan's Finance, Home, Federal, Cleveland Fed, Chicago Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, California, San Francisco, Asia, China, Japan, Teck, United States

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up less than 1 basis point at at 4.63%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at 5.058% after slipping four basis points. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed Monday, as investors considered the state of the economy and awaited key inflation data due out this week for indicators of monetary policy decisions ahead. On Friday, Moody's Investors Services lowered its U.S. credit rating outlook from stable to negative, citing fiscal deficits and political division as key factors. Meanwhile, several key data points that could inform the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy plans are expected this week.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Moody's Investors Services, Federal, New Locations: U.S, New York

☆ Morning Bid: Sidestepping Moody's rating twist
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. It's the last of the three major rating agencies to maintain a top rating for the U.S. Treasury as Fitch lowered its rating in August and S&P removed its AAA in 2011. On one level, there's some relief the AAA rating was maintained despite the darker outlook. And that would at least keep the Federal Reserve at bay despite its warnings last week that another rate hike was still on the table. Line chart with data from LSEG Eikon show the U.S. consumer price index inflation, core CPI inflation and federal funds target rate from Jan. 2019 to Sep. 2023.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Fitch, William Foster, Mike Johnson, China's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Suella Braverman, David Cameron, Lisa Cook, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Tyson, Henry Schein Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Treasury, AAA, Reuters, . House, Republican, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Tyson Foods, Walmart, Bank of England, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall St, San Francisco, New York

☆ American consumers may be starting to buckle. Here are 5 warning signs a spending slowdown is on the horizon.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans are saving lessThe personal savings rate slumped to 3.4% in September. That's well-below the pre-pandemic savings rate, when Americans were stashing away around 7% of their disposable personal income. Consumers aren't planning to splurge this holiday seasonAmericans are less likely to splurge this holiday season than last year. McKinsey & CompanyAmericans are looking less likely to splurge, even as they head into the holiday season. "Hiring for the holiday season is generally done in October, and adding up new jobs created in the BLS-defined holiday season retail sectors in the latest employment report shows that retailers expect a weaker holiday season," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Macquarie, Thierry Wizman, —, Wizman, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok Organizations: Service, Macquarie Global, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Conference, Conference Board, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Apollo, of Labor Statistics Holiday, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Locations: York

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - If the notorious 'term premium' is evaporating again, then last month's bond rout may just have been a nightmare. "If that's coming from term premium and it's tightening, then we have got to take that into account." As Summers estimated this week, a term premium just back at 60-year averages would put it at 150bps - 130bps above current levels. Morgan Stanley estimates an additional near $1 trillion in gross debt sales from G7 governments are coming down the pike next year. Morgan Stanley chart on G7 debt sales in 2024Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Christopher Waller, Larry Summers, selloff, York Fed's, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, Summers, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, ., The, NY, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Congress, Thomson Locations: York, midyear, 150bps

☆ Stock futures slip after Nasdaq registers 7-day win streak: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on May 18, 2022 in New York City. Stock futures were lower on Monday evening, as investors assess whether a rally on Wall Street can continue. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked down 0.1%. Both the S&P 500 and the 30-stock Dow were higher for the sixth-straight session, an occurrence not seen since June and July, respectively. The November uptick is in direct contrast to a weak October in which the S&P 500 slipped into correction territory.

Persons: Lisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley, Shalett Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Investors, Federal Reserve, The, York, Disney, Wynn Resorts, Occidental Petroleum Locations: New York City

☆ Morning Bid: Markets juggle 5% yields and 150 yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanPartly unwinding pre-weekend safety hedges related to the Middle East conflict, world markets are back focused on some critical macro priced levels and milestones that may once again define the week. The dollar retained its bid as a result and continued to probe the 150 yen level many suspect the Bank of Japan will be keen to protect against with open-market yen buying. But even these megacaps are still in thrall to the worrying squeeze in U.S. bond markets and the breach of the 5% threshold on 10-year tenors on Monday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, thrall, that's, That's, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Maria Corina Machado, Hess, Berkley, Brown, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Industrial, China, Goldman, Microsoft, Meta, Federal Reserve, Economy, Banco BBVA Argentina, Peronist, Massa, Venezuelan, Chevron, Exxon, Natural Resources, Brown, Cadence, Packaging Corp of America, Fed, Bank of Israel, Trade Organization, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, China, Taiwan, outflows, 50bps, York, America, Venezuela, Geneva

The 40-year bond bull market - a slow-inflating bubble like any other to some people - has crashed. Bank of America chart on survey of global funds' bond positioningBond Multiverse Returns Flip Positive2008... OR 2000? Of course, bond bubbles and bursts - at least for top-rated sovereigns - are not same as their equity counterparts, even if the short-term performance of bond funds seems to ape them. But for bond funds praying for a shorter-term price performance pickup, the situation looks nervier. With such an ephemeral variable at work, picking a durable turn in the battered bond market may prove fiendishly difficult.

Persons: Jason Lee, That's, Fed's, Olivier Davanne, midyear, Davanne, Mike Dolan Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Bank of America's, Federal Reserve, of America, Bloomberg, Invest, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Paris

☆ Bond term premiums are now a focus for the Fed. What are they?
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A bond yield can be decomposed into three elements: Expectations for what the Fed does with short-term rates; a premium for expected inflation; and a term premium. Term premiums cannot be directly observed but a number of models for them exist. A New York Fed model shows the term premium for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has climbed by more than a percentage point since the start of the third quarter. "A sudden rise in term premiums to more normal levels poses a downside risk to long-maturity Treasury prices, which could in turn affect the prices of other assets," the Fed said in its July 2017 Monetary Policy Report, a period during which term premiums were below zero. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate."

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Jerome Powell nodded, Lorie Logan, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Economic, of New, Reuters, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Dallas, National Association for Business Economics, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, of New York, York

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