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President-elect Donald Trump has called for cutting the corporate tax rate – and a slate of companies could stand to benefit, according to an analysis from Wolfe Research. That would be a reduction from the current corporate tax rate of 21%. A corporate tax rate of 18% would increase S & P 500 earnings per share by $5, while a 15% rate would lift earnings per share by $10, he said. Senyek's team identified companies that could see the greatest impact on their earnings per share from a lower tax rate. Wolfe also highlighted Amazon in its list of companies that could benefit from a lower corporate tax rate.
Persons: Donald Trump, Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Peter Supino, Biden, Supino, LSEG, Wells, Ken Gawrelski, AMZN, Fiserv, Goldman Sachs, Trump Organizations: Wolfe Research, Trump, White House, Republicans, GOP, US, Warner Bros, Discovery, Warner, White, ., Bank of America Locations: China, Wells Fargo
Financial stocks are the best-performing group in 2024 and, even though they're widely thought to have more room to run as a sector, a subset of them are even more favorably positioned. The S & P 500 financial sector has surged 36% so far this year, outpacing both the communication services and information technology sectors that contain all the high-flying megacap technology stocks. XLF YTD mountain Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) in 2024. "If this bull market persists, the upside in those fintech names could be 3-4x what we see in the overall XLF," Ginsberg said. Financial stocks may be punished first in the event of a correction in the broader market, Ginsberg said.
Persons: outpacing, Donald Trump's, They've, Trump, Sam Stovall, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg Organizations: Basel, CFRA Research, Wolfe Research, P Bank ETF, CNBC, PayPal
There are thousands of altcoins on the crypto market that are smaller, cheaper, younger and less sophisticated than the blue-chip bitcoin. "It has not been alone … crypto coins across the board have exploded higher in recent weeks. The riskiest business At the furthest end of the risk spectrum are meme coins like dogecoin , whose trading ballooned after the election . "I'd urge long-term investors to not place too much emphasis on meme coin activity — easy come, easy go," said Ryan Rasmussen, an analyst at Bitwise Asset Management. "While meme stocks such as Gamestop and AMC are a small part of the equity market, meme coins are a larger part of the crypto market and represent an outsized share of volume."
Persons: Gary Gensler, They've, bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, it's, Mike Novogratz, Wolfe's Ginsberg, Donald, they've, Ryan Rasmussen, Zach Pandl, John Todaro, Robinhood, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Securities and Exchange Commission, Trump, Galaxy Digital, Solana, Bitwise Asset Management, lotto, Grasycale Investments, Gamestop, AMC, Robinhood Locations: overbought, bitcoin
The runup in the 10-year Treasury yield is proving to be more than a short-term fluctuation, and that is starting to draw nervous looks on Wall Street. US10Y 3M mountain The 10-year Treasury yield started to climb ahead of the election and has moved higher still after Donald Trump's victory. With the 10-year yield close to a key psychological level of 4.5%, there is concern that another move higher could lead to a downturn in the stock market. If the 10-year yield does break through the 4.5% level, technical patterns suggest it could make a significant climb. Strong economic growth and optimism around artificial intelligence are two reasons why stocks may be able to tolerate higher rates, said Solita Marcelli, UBS global wealth management chief investment officer for the Americas.
Persons: Bond, Donald Trump's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Trump, Senyek, Paul Ciana, Stocks, Solita Marcelli, Marcelli Organizations: Treasury, Wolfe Research, Bank of America, UBS Locations: 1Q25
Now that the election is over, and a change at the FTC seems highly likely, Wall Street is getting ready for a new era. "In my opinion, bank M & A has reopened for every bank absent the globally systemically important banks," Mills told CNBC. DFS 1M mountain Shares of Discover Financial rallied sharply after the election of Donald Trump. The merger between those two companies was blocked by a judge and then dropped this past week , but both companies could be players moving forward. There's still a populist tone in the Trump campaign … and enforcement, in my opinion, is not going to go away.
Persons: Trump, Lina Khan, Carlyle, Harvey Schwartz, Morgan Stanley, Stephanie McCann, McDermott Will, Emery, Wolfe, Naturium, Goldman, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Mills, Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Matt Gaetz —, , There's, Kyle Healy, Alston, Michael Lynton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Trade, FTC, Federal, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Amazon, Electronic Arts, Zoom Video Communications, EA, Activision Blizzard, Capital, Discover Financial Services, DFS, Discover Financial, Spirit Airlines, Frontier, JetBlue, Regulators, Trump, Bird, Warner Music Locations: Washington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRFK pick poses uncertainty in areas of healthcare sector, says Wolfe Research's Marcus TobinTobin Marcus, Wolfe Research policy and politics head, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss what Trump's pick for HHS secretary means for the healthcare sector and and drug approval process.
Persons: Wolfe Research's Marcus Tobin Tobin Marcus, Wolfe Organizations: RFK, Wolfe Research
Small-cap stocks could see a monster rally ahead if they break above a key level. The Russell 2000 hit a high of 2,441.72 on Monday, just a hair below the November 2021 closing high of 2,442.74 before pulling back Tuesday and Wednesday. Small caps have been on a tear since the presidential election last week, after Donald Trump secured a second term. The Russell 2000 is up about 4.5% since the election, outperforming its large-cap counterparts. .RUT 5Y bar Russell 2000 less than 1% from record The technical strategist noted that move may not happen immediately.
Persons: Russell, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Donald Trump, Yun Li Organizations: Wolfe Research, Dow Jones, Nasdaq
CNN —Donald Trump is returning to the White House, and the stock market is loving it. ‘The regime change’For now, stock market investors don’t seem bothered by the jump in bond yields or these inflationary or debt concerns. “The stock market jumped for joy that the election results were definitive, thus averting a contested election. Of course, market veterans say they wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock market eventually display concern about tariffs and inflation under Trump. That could pose a number of problems for the economy and the stock market.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, shockwaves, , David Kotok, Stephanie Roth, Roth, ” Roth, Sau Loeb, Kamala Harris, Harris, Jeff Buchbinder, , Kotok, it’s, ” Kotok, They’re, Freddie Mac, , Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, It’s, , BTIG’s Isaac Boltansky Organizations: CNN, White, Dow Jones, stoke, Trump, Advisors, Wolfe Research, Treasury, US Treasury Department, Getty, Wall Street, LPL, Fed, Stock Locations: Big, Washington , DC, Washington
"In 2025, Trump's influence on Congressional Republicans will be stronger but his margin in the House will be in the single digits (down from 47 in 2017). … The narrow House majority will complicate the passage of any tax bill in 2025," he said. Mills said the GOP is expected to use the budget reconciliation process to pass any of President-elect Trump's tax proposals. That measure, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act , ultimately passed and went into effect in 2018. Wolfe Research analyst Tobin Marcus also thinks passing a tax bill is a "complex challenge" with such narrow majorities across the House and the Senate.
Persons: Raymond James, Donald Trump, Ed Mills, Mills, Trump's, Tobin Marcus, Marcus Organizations: Democrats, NBC News, Republican Party, Congressional, GOP, Republicans, Act, IRA, Wolfe Research, Senate Locations: Washington
Wedbush's Dan Ives raised his price target on Tesla to $400 a share from $300, implying 24.5% upside from Friday's close. More love for longtime Club stock Nvidia : Morgan Stanley upped its price target on the AI chip king to $160 a share from $150 at Morgan Stanley. Club name Palo Alto Networks had its PT raised to $425 a share from $410 at Barclays. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Wedbush's Dan Ives, Donald Trump's, Trump, Wednesday's, Cigna, Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler, Dell, Wells, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Trump, Nasdaq, Dow, Home, Disney, JPMorgan, Cisco Systems, Cisco, Humana, Medicare, Club, BlackRock, Deutsche Bank . BlackRock, House, Wolfe Research, Warner Bros, longtime Club, Nvidia, Melius, Dell Technologies, Bank of America, PT, Federal, Palo Alto Networks, Barclays, Analysts, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC Locations: Ives, Wells, Alto, Palo
Since Trump's win, the market has already seen some major gains. Those sectors in particular had several winners in the rally following Trump's 2016 win , and analysts believe gains may likewise be in store this time around – especially for energy. Defense stocks could also see some gains, according to Barclays analyst David Strauss. That would be above the 14.2% rally the stock saw after Trump's first win from Nov. 7, 2016, until year's end. Among the 15 analysts covering it, 11 have a hold rating, while only two have a strong buy or buy rating.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Wells, Roger Read, David Strauss, Trump, Chris Caso, Trump's, Huntington Ingalls, it's Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Energy, Trump, Defense, Barclays, Semiconductor, Wolfe Research, CNBC Pro, ConocoPhillips Locations: industrials, China, Texas
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect further restrictions on chipmaking equipment and AI in second Trump term: Wolfe's Chris CasoChris Caso, Wolfe Research senior analyst, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss what the incoming Trump administration could mean for the chips sector, effectiveness of the CHIPS and Science Act, and more.
Persons: Chris Caso Chris Caso, Trump Organizations: Trump, Wolfe Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLabor market is key focus of Fed rate cut, says Morgan Stanley's Jim CaronDavid Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist; Jim Caron, Morgan Stanley Investment Management CIO of cross asset solutions; and Stephanie Roth, Wolfe Research chief economist join CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss reactions to the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by a quarter point.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron David Kelly, Jim Caron, Morgan, Stephanie Roth, Wolfe, CNBC's Organizations: Labor, JPMorgan Asset Management, Morgan Stanley Investment, Wolfe Research, Federal
Donald Trump's return to the White House sparked a big move higher in small-cap stocks. Small-cap stocks were seen as potential winners under a second Trump presidency, as investors expect it would ease regulations on businesses — which tend to weigh more heavily on smaller businesses. Wednesday's gains in small caps were led by private prison stocks Geo Group and CoreCivic , which were up roughly 20% each. Small-cap stocks have trailed their large-cap counterparts this year. Notably, small caps outperformed in the 3mos after both the Trump 2016 and Biden 2020 wins."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Russell, Jason Goepfert, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, IWM, Wells, Chris Harvey, Robert Krankowski Organizations: Trump, DOJ, FTC, Congress, Wolfe Research, Geo, Biden, UBS, Ferrari Locations: Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailElection 2024: Breaking down the sector winners of a Trump or Harris victoryBTIG’s Isaac Boltansky and Wolfe Research’s Tobin Marcus, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the election day impact on sectors in the markets.
Persons: Trump, Harris, Isaac Boltansky, Wolfe Research’s Tobin Marcus
The U.S. presidential election takes place Tuesday as an ultra-tight campaign season ends. Under a Harris victory, Morgan Stanley sees retailers and clean energy stocks outperforming as the threat of higher tariffs lifts. Investors can keep track of these sectors through two ETFs: the SPDR S & P Retail ETF (XRT) and the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) . ETFs tracking financials and the fossil fuel producers include the Financials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) . XLF XLE YTD mountain XLF and XLE year to date These funds could also see sharp moves as exit polls and election results are reported, if they show one candidate pulling ahead.
Persons: It's, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump, Morgan Stanley, XRT, TAN, Wolfe, cryptocurrency, XLF, XLE, Bernstein Organizations: U.S, NBC, Wolfe Research, P Retail, Trump, Energy, eBay, EBAY
They have also considered the impact of potential tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. Some on Wall Street view a Harris win as a potential obstacle for antitrust and megacap technology stocks. "Regulatory scrutiny will probably help a lot of M & A activity under Trump — Harris, it'll be a little more of the status quo," said Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. This could "slow the pace of the AI revolution," he said in a recent post to X that also called a Harris win "more bullish" for the industry. Some investors also view Tesla as a likely winner under a Trump administration, given CEO Elon Musk's close ties to the former president.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Roger McNamee, Harris, Trump, Trump — Harris, it'll, Jay Woods, McNamee, Vivek Arya, Joe Rogan, Arya, Ed Mills, Raymond James, of America's Brad Sills, Raymond James ' Mills, Dan Ives, Trump's, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Capital's, Wolfe, Chris Senyek Organizations: Elevation Partners, Tech, Antitrust, Google, Justice Department, Trump, Freedom Capital, Bank of America, PHLX Semiconductor, Democrat, Republican, SOX, Devices, Qualcomm, Nvidia, Broadcom, Texas Instruments, Intel, of America's, Microsoft, Oracle, Wedbush Securities, Investors Locations: stoke, Taiwan, China, Washington
The bond market, which has already seen dramatic moves leading up to the U.S. presidential election, could see even bigger price action depending on the outcome. One big theme investors are considering is the possibility of a Donald Trump win and higher bond yields that could follow. "I expect them to be worried that Trump would enact all those tax cuts, and I think bond yields would rise." US10Y 3M mountain 10-year Treasury The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, marking the biggest monthly increase since September 2022. "There is room for rates to move in either direction depending on [the] election outcome."
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jeremy Siegel, Kamala Harris, Stephanie Roth, Roth, Siegel Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, White, Republican, Senate, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Trump, Wolfe Research
Generally, a Trump win is seen as positive for financials given a higher likelihood of deregulation for companies in the space. Traditional oil and gas names are also likely to benefit under a second Trump presidency. One is made up of stocks that benefit after a Harris win; the other would outperform under a second Trump presidency. However, a Harris win is expected to keep current regulation measures in place, and possibly introduce new ones. Private equity giants KKR and Blackstone would also benefit under a Trump win.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Paul Gallant, Cowen, Gallant, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Daniel Clifton, Strategas, Andrew Garthwaite, Trump, Garthwaite, TAN, we've, Biden, Wells, Ike Boruchow, Boruchow, , Russell, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, Crypto, isn't, Nic Puckrin, bitcoin, Marcelli, Financials, Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Lazard Organizations: Congress, U.S ., Trump, U.S . Trump, GOP, Democratic, CNBC Pro, Wall, Strategas, Enterprise, of America, Ford, UBS, Apple, Enphase Energy, Technologies Enphase, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, Cadence Bank, Viking Therapeutics, Bureau, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Lazard, Private, KKR, Blackstone, Evercore Locations: Washington, of America Cleveland, Cleveland, China
Bitcoin, an asset tied to a Trump victory given the candidates courtship of the industry, soared to a record $75,000 . Heading into the election, investors and analysts pointed to several stocks and sectors that could benefit from a Trump win. Here's a roundup of some of those: Steel stocks If Trump regains the presidency, JPMorgan expects steel stocks to outperform . Related stocks that could outperform under a Trump victory include Nucor , Cleveland-Cliffs , Kaiser Aluminum and MP Materials , according to Peterson. Supporters of Trump have also used the stock as a way to invest in a Trump victory.
Persons: Donald Trump ., Trump, Kamala Harris, Here's, Bill Peterson, Peterson, UBS's, Goldman Sachs, Strategas, Lazard, Wolfe, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Marion Laboure, bitcoin, Nic Puckrin, David Zerzos, Zerzos, Marcelli, Seth Seifman, Russell, Joe Biden, IWM, , Halliburton, Trump's, ULTA, Michael Bloom, Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh Organizations: U.S, NBC, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Trump, JPMorgan, Aluminum, Financials Bank of America, of America, UBS's Trump, UBS, Swiss, Citigroup, Citizens, Wolfe Research, GOP, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, ISI, Deutsche Bank, Investors, Jefferies, Military, Strategas, Gas Energy, Evercore ISI, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, Companies Locations: Nucor, Cleveland, U.S, China, U.S . Southern
10-year Treasury yield rises with all eyes on the U.S. election
  + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The 10-year Treasury yield traded 7 basis points higher at 4.6%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also up by 6 basis points to 4.27%. Treasury yields rose in early trading Tuesday evening as investors awaited results from the tight presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. "I expect them to be worried that Trump would enact all those tax cuts, and I think bond yields would rise." The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, marking the biggest monthly increase since September 2022.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jeremy Siegel, Trump, Harris, Stephanie Roth, Siegel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Treasury, Trump, Republican, White, Senate, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve
Following the trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 400 shares of HON, decreasing its weighting to roughly 2.5% from 3.05%. Due to the growth uncertainties that lie ahead, we want to lighten up on our Honeywell position into Tuesday's strength. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, hasn't, CRWD, BLK, DOV, ETN, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Honeywell, Wolfe Research, CrowdStrike, DuPont, CNBC Locations: BlackRock, Dover, Eaton
How a Trump or Harris victory could impact the market
  + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHow a Trump or Harris victory could impact the marketChris Senyek, Wolfe Research chief investment strategist, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss how to play stocks based on different election outcomes.
Persons: Trump, Harris, Chris Senyek, Wolfe Organizations: Wolfe Research
A handful of stocks have momentum behind them heading into their quarterly results next week. With roughly 64% of S & P 500 companies reporting results thus far, they've collectively posted earnings growth of more than 9%. Analysts have increased their earnings forecasts for DuPont by more than 23% over the past six months and 29% over the past six months. Of all the stocks, analysts are most optimistic on Constellation Energy . Earnings forecasts over the past three months have surged 215%, faster than the 163% increase seen in the trailing six months.
Persons: they've, Wolfe, Chris Parkinson, Parkinson, JPMorgan Chase, Jeremy Tonet, Tonet Organizations: Analysts, DuPont, Constellation Energy, CNBC Pro, Wolfe Research, PFAS, JPMorgan, Howmet Aerospace, Emerson Electric
Following Thursday's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 525 shares of DHR, increasing its weighting to 3.67% from 3.5%. With expectations more reasonable, Danaher is in a better position to beat next year, which should lead to a higher stock price. Our Club price target on Danaher is $305 per share, a tad higher than Wolfe's, and it implies 26% upside to Wednesday's close. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Danaher, Wolfe, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: DHR, Wolfe Research, CNBC Locations: Danaher
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