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☆ France's shock election has rattled nerves and raised debt crisis talk
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Poster of Christophe Versini for the Rassemblement National (National Rally) party, with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella on it, on June 24, 2024. Recent polling suggests the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, or National Rally) party, led by Jordan Bardella, could win the most seats in the National Assembly, followed by the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP, or New Popular Front). French bond yields — which move inversely to prices — have been relatively contained. Even then, he added, the spread of French bond yields over their German counterparts looked set to remain higher than before Macron called the election. There is little concern over France enacting its own "Frexit," he said, with even National Rally having moved away from actively proposing leaving the euro area or the European Union.

Persons: Christophe Versini, Jordan Bardella, Magali Cohen, Emmanuel Macron, Sunday's, Giorgia Meloni, Viraj Patel, Patel, Liz, Truss, Andrew Kenningham, Macron, Kenningham, François Mitterrand, Christian Keller, CNBC's, Keller Organizations: Rassemblement National, Afp, Getty, National Assembly, Societe Generale, BNP, Vanda Research, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Barclays, European Union Locations: Germany, Italy, Europe, France, Britain

☆ Analysis: Bond markets reckon a central bank policy error is on the cards
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"We are positioned for a very big bond rally, and we think that risky assets are completely underestimating the risk of a recession or something nasty happening," he added. (.MERW0G1)An early sign that the bond outlook is improving came last week with data showing euro zone business growth stalled in June. In response, German bond yields, which move inversely to prices, posted their second biggest daily drop since March. But highlighting how hard economic data has become to read, higher-than-expected U.S. first quarter growth and German inflation sent yields surging on Thursday. Major central banks fighting a surge in inflation have collectively raised borrowing costs by over 3,750 bps since September 2021.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Riddell, Viraj Patel, Vanda's Patel, BoE, Urban, Jill Hirzel, Dhara Ranasinghe, Harry Robertson, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, Vanda Research, Deutsche Bank, General Investment Management, Insight Investment, Thomson Locations: Washington, hawkish, Canada, Britain, Norway, Sintra, Germany, United States, U.S

☆ U.S. recession possible in the fourth quarter after 'zigzag' deceleration, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailU.S. recession possible in the fourth quarter after 'zigzag' deceleration, strategist saysViraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research, says he wouldn't discount the possibility of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut this year.

☆ Debt ceiling hopes lift dollar to seven-week peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a seven-week peak on Thursday after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while investors scaled back Federal Reserve easing expectations. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. "If it gets worse, you're going to see a global hard landing and you will want to be owning dollars. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting.

Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. The dollar index firmed 0.2% to 103.08, near Wednesday's seven-week peak of 103.12. Elsewhere, the dollar rose to a ten-week high of 137.89 yen , extending Wednesday's nearly 1% gain against the Japanese currency.

☆ 2023 could be 'the year of the yen,' strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email2023 could be 'the year of the yen,' strategist saysViraj Patel, senior strategist at Vanda, discusses the "no brainer" trades he likes.

☆ British pound slides on political uncertainty, reversing Liz Truss resignation bounce
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

British Prime Minister Liz Truss announces her resignation, outside Number 10 Downing Street, London, Britain October 20, 2022. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — The British pound fell 1.4% against the dollar Friday, more than wiping out the moderate gains it made following the resignation of Prime Minister Liz Truss. Truss announced she would be stepping down Thursday, saying she could not deliver the mandate on which she was elected just 44 days prior. The pound was rocky through the day, but ended it slightly higher than the previous session. Sunak, who was finance minister under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson and ran head-to-head against Truss for the leadership over the summer, is considered a favorite to replace her.

☆ Traders on intervention watch as yen hits 150, pound gains as Truss resigns
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The fragile yen briefly weakened past 150 per dollar for the first time since August 1990. It was last trading at 149.76 yen per dollar. This has sent U.S. yields and the dollar higher, particularly against the yen as the Bank of Japan is committed to keeping interest rates near zero. The pound rallied ahead of the announcement, before paring gains and then again moving higher. The dollar index dipped 0.50% against a basket of major currencies to 112.40, which analysts said was likely due to consolidation.

☆ Hedge funds mounted bearish UK bets as Truss became PM
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - In the first half of September bets against sterling posted the biggest two-week rise since 2013, a sign that hedge funds may have ramped up short positions just as Liz Truss became Britain's new Prime Minister. According to Vanda Research, which uses data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), short contracts of GBP/USD made by leveraged funds in the first two weeks of September jumped 17 percentage points. Speculators have trimmed their net short position on the British pound to 54,843 contracts last week valued at $3.9 billion, down from a previous net short position of 68,086 contracts, figures from the CFTC show. CFTC data showed speculators have maintained short positions against the pound every week since February. Gargour has had positions in the pound but because of UK marketing regulations could not confirm if he was short.

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