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Read previewBuying a home could get much more affordable, but Americans might have to wait a while. AdvertisementHere's how Goldman Sachs expects this to play out. To be sure, predicting the future of the US housing market is no easy task, and housing affordability levels will continue to vary by city and state. But if Goldman Sachs is right — and these three developments come to pass in line with the bank's projections — buying a home could become much more affordable for Americans. Viswanathan said Goldman Sachs expects US home prices to rise 4.4% in 2025, up from a 3.2% projection in April.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Vinay Viswanathan, Viswanathan, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve
One area looks safe from the dreaded “R” word: the housing market. Goldman predicts home prices will rise even more next year, in part because housing supply is so constrained. Forecasts of a prolonged housing market slump haven’t materialized. Those moves have helped push mortgage rates to a 22-year high. “Home buyers have demonstrated behavior that, in our view, reflects unsustainable adaptations to elevated mortgage rates,” the Goldman Sachs strategists Roger Ashworth and Vinay Viswanathan wrote in a research note.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Bankrate, Roger Ashworth, Vinay Viswanathan Organizations: Fed Locations: U.S
Both Goldman and Fitch did not specify which small lenders were most vulnerable. The total exposure of the U.S. banking system to CRE loans was $2.5 trillion at the end of December, Fitch said. HEADWINDSThe CRE market faces headwinds that could hobble small banks. Rising interest rates have also depressed demand for CRE loans, while weighing on real estate investment trusts (REITs). Goldman's Viswanathan cited several indicators that reflected a weakening market for office real estate: declining occupancy rates, falling appraisal values and rising defaults.
Housing supply on a national basis will remain tight, Goldman Sachs strategists say. Part of that call — which is less bearish than forecasts from firms like KPMG, Interactive Brokers, and Pantheon Macroeconomics — is due to Goldman's outlook for housing supply levels. In certain areas of the country, supply levels are rising faster than in others. In four cities in particular, supply levels are above pre-pandemic levels, the bank said, which will result in greater price declines than the national average. Goldman SachsSupply developments in the multi-family housing market could also signal trouble for prices down the line, the strategists said.
In some cities, the damage will be as bad as it was across the US in the mid-2000s, the bank said. Attention homeowners and real-estate investors, Goldman Sachs has bad news: home prices are going to fall further in 2023 than they had previously thought. Goldman SachsWhile Karoui, Viswanathan, and Walker see national home prices falling by 10% peak-to-trough, they see prices in cities where home values have soared above average falling more. What other firms are sayingGoldman Sachs isn't the only Wall Street bank calling for further home price declines in 2023. Morgan Stanley strategist James Egan said in a January note that he sees home prices falling by 4% in 2023 thanks to stagnant demand.
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